WSJ - Beyond the Bounce

[question everything]

Beyond the Bounce

Bush got the better bounce. But will it matter come Nov. 2?

Most surveys held after the Democratic convention, in late July, showed little to no bounce for John Kerry and running mate John Edwards, while President Bush and Vice President Cheney are scoring slightly better after their late August convention, though the size of the bump has varied by pollster. While unusual, the skimpy bounces this season weren't a complete surprise: The number of undecided voters is believed to be small this election, limiting potential gains by either candidate. Republican partisans have said that Mr. Bush's ability to snag the larger gain is a sign he's appealing across party lines. Kerry supporters, meanwhile, argue that the president's bump will be short-lived.

A review by Gallup of pre- and post-convention polls back to 1964 shows a tendency toward larger convention bounces among Democrats over Republicans and challengers over incumbents, and the candidate whose party holds its convention first also tends to get a slightly larger boost. Interestingly, in four of the last six elections, the winning candidate was the man who had the smaller bounce in post-convention polls -- meaning either he was far enough ahead to ward off his charging opponent, or he came from behind to win in the months between the conventions and Election Day.

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-conven-pole.html?mod=home_inside_today_us

[The_Casual_Observer]

1. Well then, Kerry wins in this article.