Why the public option isn't really "back"

[Jefferson23]

Liberal groups celebrating prematurely; victory on issue still seems all but impossible
By Alex Koppelman

When they're not attacking the White House over it, liberal groups are celebrating the return of the public option, as seen in a campaign that has gotten more than 20 senators to sign on to a letter urging Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to use reconciliation to pass a bill that includes the government-run insurance plan.

MoveOn.org, for one, released an updated version of its ad on the issue that starred Heather Graham. In this new iteration, the narrator says, "When a majority of Americans support something, it's hard to keep a good idea down. Because the public option is back. The public option is making a comeback. Over 20 senators and over 100 House members have endorsed putting the public option back on the table." (The ad is at the bottom of this post.)

That is, simply put, a very optimistic way of looking at things -- an overly optimistic way of looking at things, really. It's impressive that liberal groups have gotten as many senators to back the idea as they have, but not much more than that is likely to happen.

Under reconciliation, a Senate procedure that rules out the possibility of a filibuster, Democrats would still need 51 votes to pass a bill that includes a public option. Technically, they'd really only need 50 votes, plus a tie-breaker from Vice President Joe Biden. But given the White House's reluctance to actively support the public option, and the terrible optics of having Biden cast that vote -- Republicans would cry that a government healthcare takeover was shoved down Americans' throats -- there's basically no chance that Demcoratic leadership will let the process get to that point. So, practically speaking, they need 51 votes, or 28 more than the 23 senators who are currently signatories to the letter.

remainder in full: http://www.salon.com/news/healthcare_reform/index.html?story=/politics/war_room/2010/02/23/public_option