Iran: Four Scenarios for the Vote Recount

[clear eye]

At our request, Chris Emery has written this special snap analysis of today’s unprecedented developments in Iran:

This morning’s news that the Guardian Council has agreed to recount disputed votes only confirms that the Islamic Republic, at both a public and official level, has entered totally uncharted waters. It is impossible to know at this stage the degree of coordination between the office of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the Guardian Council. However, it appears that, given the immediacy of the situation, the Guardian Council have decided that there is not enough political space to present a full report over the next 10 days (which they announced yesterday). Instead, the highly volatile atmosphere on the street demands immediate concessions.

At this very early stage there appears to be four scenarios:

1. Mousavi Declared Winner

This appears to be the second least likely scenario...

2. Ahmadinejad confirmed as victor

This appears to be the most-likely scenario...

3. The election goes to a second-round runoff

This appears perhaps the second most likely scenario but would pose a huge political and logistical question for all parties....

4. Election is declared null and void and new election called

Although this is the option apparently favoured by the Mousavi campaign, it has apparently been rejected by the Guardian Council and is thus the most unlikely scenario.

The reasons behind the author's ranking of each of these possibilities are given in the full story at the Enduring America site.

[The empressof all]

1. It's unlikely that the people will accept recount

The rumors are too widespread that the ballots have already been burned. Many suspect this is a ploy to buy time, reduce the protests and gather the troops to squash further dissent.

[clear eye]

2. Author assumes that a recount would just be an arbitrary change in final numbers.

And depending on what was decided beforehand, the "result" would lead to different consequences. So it wouldn't matter if the ballots had been burned. (As long as they didn't admit it.) It's an interesting article; I recommend it.