THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, July 20 – Obama 364, McCain 174

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, July 20, 2008


Contents:
1. Current Stats
2. Electoral Votes
3. Strength of Electoral Votes
4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004
5. Popular Vote and National Daily Tracking Polls
6. Probabilities and Potentials
7. Poll Averages Comparison
8. The Week in Trading and Poll Averages
9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)
10. States Ranked with High Undecideds and Outdated Polls
11. Sources and Links


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1. Current Stats

The significant changes occurring this week are that Nevada finally switched to blue and Virginia changed back to red. More states moved out of the margin of error than moved in this week, but new polls for two very large states are showing higher Undecideds (California and New York).

States moving to the left this week are: Iowa (7), Nevada (5), New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), South Dakota (3) and Washington (11). States moving to the right this week are: Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Colorado (9), Louisiana (9), Maine (4), South Carolina (8) and Virginia (13).

Barack Obama sees decreases in his electoral vote projection and popular vote projection this week, while trading is slightly up for him. Most of Obama’s indices have leveled off and a few have begun to drop slightly. John McCain increases this week in his electoral vote projection, ticks up slightly in his popular vote projection, and drops a bit in trading.

NOTE: These results won’t happen unless we work hard for Democrats in 2008!


Election Day: Tuesday, November 4, 2008


Number of Days Until the Election: 108 days


Current Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 364
McCain – 174
Needed to Win – 270


Current Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 59,717,343 … (47.1%) … (+5,765,269)
McCain – 53,952,074 … (42.6%)
Barr – 2,463,877 … (1.9%)
Nader – 1,223,545 … (1.0%)
Undecided/Other – 9,364,161 … (7.4%)


Swing States Leaning:
Obama – 56.93%
McCain – 43.07%


Projected Popular Vote if Undecideds Break the Same as Swing States:
Obama – 65,050,000 … (51.3%) … (+7,060,000)
McCain – 57,990,000 … (45.8%)
All Others – 3,681,000 … (2.9%)


Probability of Obama Win – 84.4% (if the election were held today)


Strength of Projection – 62.5%



^ This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ This chart shows the seats projected to be picked up by Democrats in November in Congress. The projection is from Electionprojection.com.





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2. Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)

Obama is currently winning 48% of the electoral votes outside of the margin of error, compared to McCain’s 26%. The number of electoral votes within the margin of error grew to one-third of the total last week, but drops back to about one-fourth of the total this week. Once we consider Obama’s lead in the swing states (57%-43%) and add how well he is doing in the states within the margin of error (momentum), his electoral vote projection arrives at 364, down from 402 last week. The electoral vote projections from other sources also show Obama’s lead narrowing at this point.



^ This chart shows the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the total 538 electoral votes up for grabs this year.



^ This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and the possible route for the next seven days.


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3. Strength of Electoral Votes

The states within the margin of error dropped by 34 electoral votes this week, down from 176 electoral votes to 142 electoral votes. New Jersey (15) switched from within the margin of error (leaning Obama) to Weak Obama. Oregon (7) switched from within the margin of error (leaning Obama) to Weak Obama. South Carolina (8) switched from within the margin of error (leaning McCain) to Weak McCain. And South Dakota (3) switched from Strong McCain to within the margin of error (leaning McCain).



^ This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ This graph shows the weekly tracking of the five categories of strength for the electoral votes. The dark blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong Obama category (Obama leading by 10% or greater). The light blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak Obama category (Obama leading between 5% and 9%). The yellow line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the margin of error (either candidate leading by 4% or less). The pink line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak McCain category (McCain leading between 5% and 9%). The red line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong McCain category (McCain leading by 10% or greater).


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4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004

At this point in 2004, John Kerry was leading George W. Bush 322 electoral votes to 205 electoral votes, with 11 tied. It was shortly before this day in 2004 that John Kerry chose John Edwards as his running mate, and they went on a 45-day streak of leading in the race. Their high point during the campaign came in mid-July, when Kerry was projected at 330 electoral votes. Then the attacks on Kerry came non-stop.

Comparing Obama’s projection to Kerry’s in 2004, we see that Obama has about 70 more Strong electoral votes now than Kerry had at this point then. But Kerry had about 60 more Weak electoral votes than Obama has now. There are also about 40 more electoral votes within the margin of error than there were at this point in 2004. Bush was much stronger in 2004 than McCain is now, as Bush had 60 more Strong electoral votes then.



^ Electoral-Vote.com is a valuable source for electoral vote tracking. This graph shows the electoral progress of the 2004 election between John Kerry and George Bush, along with descriptions of factors that seems to have changed the course of the race. I include on the left side a snapshot of the electoral vote projection for each candidate on this date back in 2004.



^ This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%) on this date in 2004 (Kerry vs. Bush). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com.) Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the near future.


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5. Popular Vote and National Daily Tracking Polls

Obama is currently projected to win 47.1% of the popular vote, and he is ahead of McCain by 4.5%. Barr is taking 1.9% of the vote, while Nader grabs a full one percent. The percentage of Undecideds increases this week to 7.4%.

The national daily tracking polls are a good indicator of the projected popular vote, and there is a correlation between the lead in popular vote and the probability of winning the electoral vote. A three-point lead in a national poll would correlate to a 97% probability of winning the electoral vote, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.

Trend lines for Obama’s lead in Gallup Daily Tracking, Rasmussen Daily Tracking and Real Clear Politics Average are beginning to drop from their respective highs. Looking at all these sources together, however, we can see that Obama’s lead in the popular vote ranges between 0.5% and 5.0% over McCain, according to the trends revealed by the national polls.



^ This chart shows the percentage of the projected popular vote for each candidate with a percentage still undecided. A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the projected 126,750,000 votes up for grabs this year.



^ I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the total popular vote percentages, and compares them to the final percentages received by past Democratic candidates. The scale is 0 to 100%, with a majority being 50%. Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the next four weeks.



^ I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations in millions. The scale is between 0 and 126.75 (in millions), and a majority of votes (half) would be 63,375,000 votes. Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the next seven days.



^ The national daily tracking polls are indicators of the potential popular vote lead for a candidate. This graph compares the trend lines of Obama’s lead in the national daily tracking polls and averages with my projected trend line of Obama’s lead in the popular vote. The red line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Gallup Daily Tracking polls. The purple line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Rasmussen Daily Tracking polls (with leaners). The blue line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Real Clear Politics’ aggregate state poll average. The dark green line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from my daily projection of each candidate’s popular vote, based on state polls and projected votes on election day in each state. The light green line shows my actual daily tracking of Obama’s popular vote lead over McCain. Taking all these daily tracking items together, we can see a true range of Obama’s lead over McCain over time and a possible trend for the future of this race.



^ This graph from FiveThirtyEight.com shows a correlation between a candidate’s lead in the popular vote and that candidate’s probability of winning the electoral vote and the election, if the election were held today.


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6. Probabilities and Potentials

The difference between each candidate’s Potential Electoral Votes Advantage provides a keen insight into how they are doing against each other nationwide. Obama’s potential advantage is 74.2%, while McCain’s potential advantage is only 52.2%. The difference in potential advantages is Obama +22.0% (up from +20.8% last week). McCain’s potential advantage decreased by 3.7 percentage points this week, while Obama’s potential advantage decreased by 2.4 percentage points.

At this point in 2004, Kerry’s potential advantage was 63.9% and Bush’s potential advantage was 54.8%. Kerry led Bush by +9.1% in potential advantages four years ago, compared to Obama’s +22.0% lead in potential advantages now.


Highly Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 192 … (35.7%)
McCain – 76 … (14.1%)

Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 257 … (47.8%)
McCain – 139 … (25.8%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 399 … (74.2%)
McCain – 139 … (25.8%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 257 … (47.8%)
McCain – 281 … (52.2%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 462 … (85.9%)
McCain – 76 … (14.1%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 192 … (35.7%)
McCain – 346 … (64.3%)


“Highly Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling at >10% (Strong states only). “Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling beyond the margin of error (Strong and Weak states).

“Potential” electoral votes are the same as probable states, but then we add the states polling within the margin of error to give one candidate an advantage. In this scenario, one candidate takes the states where they are polling strong and weak, and also takes all the margin-of-error states.

“Blowout” electoral votes would give one candidate only their strong states (>10%) and the other candidate would win all the other states. An example would be if Obama were to win in all his base states, all the swing states, and all the states where McCain was polling weak.


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7. Poll Averages Comparison

Obama’s aggregate average of all the state polls is 46.9% this week, staying even with last week. He has now surpassed where both Kerry and Gore finished their races. Kerry ended his presidential race with a 46.5% state poll average, and Gore finished with a 46.1% state poll average. There is still quite a way to go to match Bill Clinton’s 1996 final result of 48.0%.

McCain’s aggregate average of all the state polls is 43.4% this week.

It’s interesting to note that only one candidate from either party in the past four presidential elections managed to reach a 50.0% poll average majority, and that was George W. Bush in 2004 (50.7%). All other final results from all parties ended below 50.0%.


Comparison of Poll-Averages:
2008 Obama – 46.9%
2004 Kerry – 46.5% (Final)
2000 Gore – 46.1% (Final)
1996 Clinton – 48.0% (Final)
1992 Clinton – 42.1% (Final)



^ This graph shows the weekly tracking of the aggregate state poll averages for each candidate, and compares them to the final aggregate state poll averages received by past Democratic candidates. The scale is 0 to 100%, with a majority being 50%. Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the next four weeks.


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8. The Week in Trading and Poll Averages

Gallup’s daily tracking average for Obama drops two percentage points to 45% this week, while Rasmussen’s daily tracking average for Obama drops one percentage point to 46%. The Real Clear Politics Average this week is 45.8% for Obama, down from 46.8% last week. Obama now leads McCain in averages by 2% in Gallup, by 0% (tied) in Rasmussen, and by 4.2% in RCP. Our Wigand Electoral Average slipped back from 60.78 last week to 59.29 this week for Obama, as Virginia moved back into McCain’s territory.

Obama’s Intrade shares closed at 65.1, up from 65.0 last week. His shares on Rasmussen Markets bump up from 67.2 to 68.3 this week.

Overall trading for our 12 swing states reached a new high, moving forward 17.90 this week to 683.20 for Obama, and it remains strong above the majority mark of 600.00. The states gaining ground in trading for Obama this week are: Indiana, Michigan, Colorado, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Mexico and Nebraska. South Carolina stays put, while small losses were incurred for North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio. Obama is doing better than McCain overall in our 12 swing states by a margin of 56.9% to 43.1%.



^ The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). The scale is 0 to 1200, with 600 being a majority. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.



^ Wigand vs. Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ Wigand vs. National Polls. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average).


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9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)


Alaska Obama 41, McCain 51 (Research 2000/Daily Kos, 7/16, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Arkansas Obama 39, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 7/15, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
California Obama 54, McCain 30 (The Field Poll, 7/14, +/- 3.9, 672 LV)
Colorado Obama 47, McCain 43 (Public Policy Polling, 7/10, +/- 3.0, 1050 LV)
Iowa Obama 51, McCain 41 (Rasmussen, 7/10, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Kansas Obama 47, McCain 48 (Rasmussen, 7/14, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Louisiana Obama 37, McCain 56 (Rasmussen, 7/9, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Maine Obama 49, McCain 41 (Rasmussen, 7/17, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Michigan Obama 50, McCain 42 (Rasmussen, 7/10, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Minnesota Obama 54, McCain 37 (Rasmussen, 7/10, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Nevada Obama 47, McCain 45 (Rasmussen, 7/16, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
New Jersey Obama 47, McCain 38 (Strategic Vision, 7/13, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)
New York Obama 50, McCain 37 (Siena Research, 7/10, +/- 3.9, 626 RV)
North Carolina Obama 45, McCain 50 (Survey USA, 7/14, +/- 3.8, 676 LV)
North Carolina Obama 45, McCain 48 (Rasmussen, 7/15, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Oregon Obama 49, McCain 40 (Rasmussen, 7/14, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
South Carolina Obama 39, McCain 45, Barr 5 (Public Policy Polling, 7/11, +/- 4.2, 542 LV)
South Dakota Obama 43, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 7/9, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Virginia Obama 47, McCain 48 (Rasmussen, 7/16, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Washington Obama 47, McCain 37 (Moore Information, 7/10, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
Washington Obama 55, McCain 39 (Survey USA, 7/15, +/- 3.9, 666 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)



^ Probability of winning a state, found by cross-referencing a
candidate’s percentage lead with the poll’s margin of error.


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10. States Ranked with High Undecideds and Outdated Polls


States with Undecideds 10% or Greater:
1. West Virginia – 16.4%
2. Alabama – 13.3%
3. California – 12.9%
4. Kentucky – 12.6%
5. Tennessee – 11.8%
6. New York – 10.4%
7. Utah – 10.3%
8. New Jersey – 10.1%
9. Pennsylvania – 10.1%
10. South Carolina – 10.0%


States with Outdated Polls (Older Than 35 days):
Delaware – Last Poll … 2/28
Hawaii – Last Poll … 2/28
Idaho – Last Poll … 2/28
Oklahoma – Last Poll … 6/11
Vermont – Last Poll … 2/28
West Virginia – Last Poll – 6/2
Wyoming – Last Poll … 5/21


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11. Sources and Links

THE MATH:
Read Last Week’s Edition
Monday’s Daily Widget
Tuesday’s Daily Widget
Wednesday’s Daily Widget
Thursday’s Daily Widget
Friday’s Daily Widget

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
Electionprojection.com


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As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[fight4my3sons]

1. Hi phrigndumass!

I'm still having a hard time recognizing that Maine has moved into the weak Obama column. They didn't poll me or anyone else that I know. :P

[phrigndumass]

2. I wonder if they were polling District 2 only, lol

A new poll for the Allen-Collins race came out today. Still a 10-point race.

Actual poll:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/maine/toplines_maine_senate_july_17_2008

Summary of Allen-Collins race so far:
http://www.pollster.com/08-ME-Sen-GE-CvA.php

Thanks! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

3. Thank you for the new polls.

I have been waiting for them. :)

[phrigndumass]

6. yw!

:D

[fight4my3sons]

18. lil math dude wants to say hi

He finally realized that the title of your posts read 'DU the Math' and he is taking it literally. He's looking for actual math problems. :7

Ok, these are from him because I wouldn't let him send them the other day :hi: :rofl: :bounce: (in no particular order)

[phrigndumass]

20. Hi Lil Math Dude! :)

:hi: :rofl: :bounce: and an extra :hi:

and one for mommy :donut: :hi: Good morning!

[Quixote1818]

4. Your post doesn't have enough data for an informed decision on what

is going on. :sarcasm:

[phrigndumass]

5. LOL! :)

I'm wondering what I could leave out and still have too much, lol

:hi:

[psychmommy]

7. thanks phrig

you know i love the math. i'll k N r the other post also. keep up the good work. we have work to do du.

[phrigndumass]

8. yw psychmommy :) We definitely have work to do

Who knows? This could be the high point of Obama's projections this year.

Thanks! :hi:

[davidpdx]

9. PD, good job as always

Your "math" makes my head spin there is so much data to look over. Just a suggestion, I really liked your chart showing the MOE/percentage lead which shows the probability of who would win the state. Can you expand the chart going right to show the percentage lead to +9?

[phrigndumass]

13. I'll be happy to do that

That particular chart is from a Washington Post online article a couple weeks ago, but the probabilities are an easy calculation and I'll be happy to expand it. I would like to see it with half-points myself.

(jotting down on to-do list, lol)

:hi:

[redsoxrudy]

10. Kudos once again!

Another great post. I always look forward to your "The Math" posts. It is so cool seeing all the data you have in one place as opposed getting little bits here and there as I do between your posts. I really like the addition of the past race comparisons as I think this is most helpful in discerning between normal campaign ebb and flows as opposed to significant shifts occurring in a campaign. Until next time, keep up the great work.

[phrigndumass]

14. Thanks! We're not seeing the significant shifts like 2004 (yet)

It's a good sign, I believe, and your discernment seems to be spot on!

:hi:

[grantcart]

11. thank you again for the great work

Just out of curiousity - what percentages are you using for CA and NY for Obama when calculating for the popular vote.


I still feel that we are under valuing Obama's national vote - but I would rather be under than over at this point

[phrigndumass]

15. Data for CA and NY:

California's data is from The Field Poll poll on July 14:

Obama - 54%
McCain - 30%
Plus projections for Barr and Nader:
Barr - 2.0%
Nader - 1.2%
Undecided - 12.8%

2004 Votes - 12,400,499
4-year population growth - 3.33%
Projected 2008 Votes - 12,812,851

Obama - 54% of 12,812,851 = 6,918,940 (+3,075,085)
McCain - 30% of 12,812,851 = 3,843,855
Barr - 2.0% of 12,812,851 = 251,071
Nader - 1.2% of 12,812,851 = 151,344
Undecided - 12.8% of 12,812,851 = 1,647,641

* * * * *

New York's data is from Siena Research Institute on July 10:

Obama - 50%
McCain - 37%
Plus projections for Barr and Nader:
Barr - 1.1%
Nader - 1.6%
Undecided - 10.3%

2004 Votes - 7,390,732
4-year population growth - 0.47%
Projected 2008 Votes - 7,425,392

Obama - 50% of 7,425,392 = 3,712,696 (+965,301)
McCain - 37% of 7,425,392 = 2,747,395
Barr - 1.1% of 7,425,392 = 81,289
Nader - 1.6% of 7,425,392 = 115,172
Undecided - 10.3% of 7,425,392 = 768,840

:hi:

[grantcart]

17. Ok well that is what doesn't add up for me

The difference in NY/Ca alone is 4 million but for all the rest of the 48 states he only nets 1.7 million


I think part of the problem is that they have stopped polling in some of his big margin states like HI and IL


It seems like it should be closer to 8-9 million difference in popular vote which is only 7%

[phrigndumass]

19. I wouldn't have noticed that myself, thanks for bringing it up!

Obama's nationwide lead outside of New York and California is 1.7 million votes. Throw in Texas, and his lead diminishes to 800,000 votes nationwide.

Lots of Undecideds, though.

[Demeter]

12. Hi P Man!

It's amazing that still there are that many brain-dead preferring McCain. I'd like to see the popular vote break 60% for Obama with McCain getting the 30% he so justly deserves, if not less.

[phrigndumass]

16. That would be a dream come true, lol :)

But it's highly improbable in this day and age that one candidate could garner 60% of the popular vote. I'm seeing 51% now, but I think 55% would be a landslide of major proportions.

McCain definitely deserves less than 30%!

:hi:

[mckara]

21. I Want Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia, Too!

Gawd! I wish the election was this Tuesday!

[phrigndumass]

22. At least Colorado is looking good :)

:hi: