Orange County (CA) Register: If not now, when?

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Monday, May 22, 2006

Editorial: If not now, when?

It's time to plan for pulling out significant numbers of U.S. troops from Iraq

In testimony last Wednesday before the defense subcommittee of the Senate Appropriations Committee, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said "I can't promise it," in reference to a substantial withdrawal of U.S. troops this year. In fact, he emphasized the dangers of a too-early withdrawal, warning it could make Iraq a haven for extremists.

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As George Friedman, president of the private intelligence and consulting group Stratfor.com, put it in a recent analysis, "The times will not be more propitious than they are now," because "each party has an interest in a settlement," with the possible exception of foreign fighters, many affiliated with al-Qaida.

It isn't just the U.S. that has been disappointed with the way things are going in Iraq. Iran, which had an interest in encouraging Sunni insurgency early on, is unlikely to be able to make Iraq a de facto satellite because the Sunni insurgency (and Sunni voting in December) made it impossible to have a government without significant Sunni participation. The Kurds in the north will have significant autonomy but not outright independence. The Shia majority will dominate a new national government but won't be able to control it completely. That doesn't sound like much, but each party can recognize that continued violence could easily make its bargaining position weaker rather than stronger in the future.

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While there might be substantial violence for awhile as the U.S. draws down its troops, the magnet for foreign fighters that U.S. troops have become will diminish in attractive power. Without the crutch of a massive U.S. presence, Iraqis will have stronger incentives to find ways to accommodate the various groups with significant power in the country. The result is unlikely to be utopian or even very democratic, but if what emerges is not an Iranian puppet and not threatening to its neighbors, that will serve core U.S. interests well enough.

http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/opinion/abox/article_1148877.php