Peak Oil and Mirage Realism

[chlamor]

Peak Oil and Mirage Realism

Realism is the philosophical notion that what our scientific theories tell us about the world are more or less, or approximately true. Scientific theories are generally considered to be the pinnacle of human knowledge. Although ultimately fallible and always up for revision the scientific method for discovering knowledge has, certainly in the West been shown to be instrumentally reliable. If the “realist” gets ill, the “realist” is more likely to visit a medical doctor than a soothsayer or faith healer.

Normatively then we might argue at least that being a realist is a position one might hold if one believes that the knowledge forwarded by our best theories is more or less or at least approximately true. Of course this claim also presupposes that we look toward science for answers to questions we might have about the natural world. To some extent being a realist is a matter of pragmatics. Panglosian arguments held by politicians and economists may serve to comfort us but such reassurances rarely stand up to logical scrutiny, natural laws or scientific evidence.

Optimists amongst us are plentiful, and their reassurances are familiar however, merely wishing or hoping something to be true, particularly in the face of evidence to the contrary, doesn’t make it true. We might call this position “mirage realism”. We explain and present two examples but first some background.

Oil production worldwide is close to peaking. That is, we are close to the point where the all time maximum amount of oil can be pumped from the ground. After this point it is expected that oil production will decline at a rate between 3% and 7% per annum (suggested by the empirical evidence provided from existing oil fields that are already in decline). The evidence for “peak oil” as it is called is indisputable. Oil production in a variety of regions and states that are now in decline can be predictably graphed as a bell shaped curve. The first significant example was when the United States peaked in 1971. More recently the North Sea, with Norway close at its heels have peaked and are in permanent decline. Collectively the world will follow soon.

http://www.energybulletin.net/5308.html

[Coastie for Truth]

1. Other examples of "Mirage Realism"

1. Abiotic petroleum.
2. Methane hydrate.

[Mr. Flibble]

2. Nuclear power is renewable, yet

it's illegal to enrich uranium in the US and we go after countries that do it. (oil profitability must be maintained, society be damned?)

While that's half-irrelevant, there are MANY ways we can reduce our need for oil, the gross bulk of it needed for transportation. That's the part that the Smoked Gipper forgot about when saying "Alternative energy programs are obsolete" as he cut the programs to shreds. Energy needs to be a constant concern, and we didn't learn from the 1970s. :-(

[IrateCitizen]

4. Nuclear power is certainly NOT renewable...

That is, unless you have devised some way to produce uranium-238 out of butter or cotton candy. Nuclear power is dependent on a non-renewable resource, and is therefore NOT renewable.

However, it most likely represents our only hope for making the transition to a renewable-based economy. And it presents some ENORMOUS problems at the same time, such as cost and the time required to get plants built and on-line (at least a decade).

Furthermore, even if we do make this transition, we will STILL suffer a crippling energy crunch. The car-centered lifestyle will be over. We are further hampered by the fact that we gobbled up some of our best farmlands in the push for suburban expansion. No matter which way you slice it, this transition will cause some serious short-term pain, and change our lives in unimaginable ways.

[teryang]

3. current discussion of plentiful supplies and falling prices

...is another mirage, to dupe the weak hands out of their energy and other resource equities. This is a very temporary situation. The correction is being generated by short sellers and institutions who will profit by buying back extremely valuable equities during the current plunge.

Many companies have reduced their hedged positions. Profits will go up as long as oil prices stay above forty dollars. In fact, these companies will make more money than they did at fifty dollars because they need to unwind their hedged positions. The use of energy is inelastic for many. Many cannot choose not to drive to work or drive to the grocery store. In many places there is only so much you can do to reduce your electric bill.

People are giving up other purchases in order to fill up their gas tanks. While there is the prospect of a huge financial debacle sometime in the intermediate future, the American financial sector and its allies in the regime have been masterful in pulling one rabbit out of a hat after another.