CBS Poll: Bush Gains In Post-Convention Poll (* 7 Point Lead)

[RamboLiberal]

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/09/09/opinion/polls/main642108.shtml

One week after their convention, the Republican ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney hold a seven-point lead over Democrats John Kerry and John Edwards among registered voters surveyed in a new CBS News poll.

The Republicans’ gain in voter support comes about through two changes that appear to have happened at that convention – a major improvement in the President’s approval ratings on handling terrorism (already the area where he scored best), and significant negative changes in perceptions of the Democratic nominee.

The Bush ticket’s four-point post-convention gain in support comes in part from some weakening of Kerry support among Democrats, but especially from gains with independent voters. In this poll, for the first time since last spring, Mr. Bush holds a clear lead with Independents.

Nine of ten Republicans say they will vote for Mr. Bush, but only eight of ten Democrats now say they will vote for Kerry.

[papau]

1. WashPost/ABC Poll due tonight - n/t

n/t

[Teaser]

4. WashPost will be bad.

Brace yourselves.

[qanda]

5. How bad?

eom

[annxburns]

13. I don't know but ABC NEWS "the Note" is hinting

"the worst is yet to come". However, who knows what that means.

Bleech.

[lancdem]

22. That does sound ominous

Was he saying that poll will even worse for Kerry than the others?

[annxburns]

30. Impossible to tell .

They could just be refering to the tone of the campaign.

[lancdem]

33. True

Did he specifically mention the ABC/WaPo poll and what might be in it?

[Snivi Yllom]

28. I heard the talking heads spinning this already

media bias at work

here is ABCs take on their own poll

"Be aware — tonight, the first true post-convention, non-holiday-tainted, gold-plated national poll hits the street (courtesy of ABC News and the Washington Post )."

[lancdem]

37. I can't tell if that's good or bad

Considering how WaPo/ABC polls tend to favor Bush, if it shows him with a 5-point lead or less I'll be relieved. We can then say, "Look, Bush went from an 11-point lead to a 5-point lead in five days! Kerry's on a roll!"

:)

[spotbird]

2. Oh well, there are still seven weeks left.

By then the Bush campaign will be running ads showing Kerry and Edwards eating little babies as appetizers.

[shockingelk]

42. This is KEY

From the full results in the PDF, this poll, September 6-8 (PDF),

q7 Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure?

Mind made up 78%
Too early to say for sure: 14%
DK/NA 0%
Didn’t choose a candidate 8%

Same question from CBS August 15-18 poll (PDF),

Mind made up 77%
Too early to say for sure 14%
DK/NA 1%
Didn’t choose a candidate 8%

[TheFarseer]

3. I'm not sure what Democrats object to here.

To me John Kerry is a democrat's democrat if that makes any sense. He's like the default democrat. I'm not sure what other democrats see here that they can say, "bush is better"

[lancdem]

6. For some perspective, Kerry was up by 7 in this poll

after his convention, according to http://www.pollingreport.com.

Look at it this way: Bush went from 11 points up to 7 points up in less than a week. It'll take time for Kerry to regain the momentum, but he's off to a good start.

Also, Bush's approval rating is above 50 percent in this poll for the first time in this poll in a long time. That's the effect of the convention.

[expatriot]

29. Yes, we are in good shape... barring an "Osama October"

The end of last week will be remembered as the nadir of Kerry's campaign: it's all up from here. Change of campaign brass, the end of the RNC's "Be afraid America" Convention,

[Fed Up]

7. Sieg Heil, the press has done its job.

The Fuhrer's press is not going to let him look bad. Hammer away until everybody is on board.

I kinda foresaw this a month ago.

[leesa]

8. Remember that these polls are produced by the very media that

has purchased Bush. They have paid alot of money for his services and they are not going to let it appear as though he is the loser he truly is.

If they don't make it appear close, they cannot steal the election.

[skooooo]

16. Regardless..

...whether they're skewed or not they influence perception. That's the scary thing.

[annxburns]

9. Are the numbers released?

I don't see any. BTW they say in the article that this is a four point convention bounce - isn't that what rasmussen said?

[Jim__]

10. How incompetent is CBS?

I read the story linked at the beginning of this thread. it tells us that bush leads by 7%. Then it tells us bush leads by 15% among male voters and 5% among female voters (it seems like their sample is somewhat skewed). They then jump through a couple of hundred hoops giving us historical data of who had what percentage at what point in previous elections. After reading through all this shit twice, nowhere do they answer the simple fucking question - what percentage say they're voting for bush, what percentage say they're voting for Kerry?

Seems like the answer to that question belongs in the 1st or 2nd paragraph.

[Beetwasher]

11. This is A Poorly Written Article, Where Are the Friggin' Numbers???

n/t

[sonicx]

12. where are the numbers?

this article has no raw numbers! :wtf:

the indies are especially important.

[NeonLX]

14. Is this country really THAT stupid???

I mean, we can point fingers at the media all we want but ultimately, citizens are ultimately responsible for the people they elect in a reprentative democracy such as ours.

Yeah, we're supposed to have a working, investigative media keeping tabs on the gubbmint in this country, but still...

Sorry, I'm just sick of encountering rightwing morans every waking minute of my life...

[shrike]

21. I'm starting to believe they are

I mean, what will it take? What will have to happen before people see the light? If Bush murdered his mother in the rose garden on live television, his supporters would still consider him a good Christian.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

15. The sole purpose of these polls is to discourage Dems from voting.

[Dr Fate]

19. And from volunteering or donating money.

It is working to a slight degree too.

Kerry really needs to continue holding Bush's feet to the fire- it's silly, but he needs to start spreading the "Bush is a liar(and use that word), and here are some examples" memo.

[Puglover]

17. The polls are horseshit. Period.

n/t

[goclark]

24. But the perception is still there for those on No Doz

One of my dearest KerryCFampaign friends is so disappointed and down in the dumps. She has only been watching the news and listening to the crap they throw out.

I ttied to tell her to log on to DU so she can see the truth,but she just kept telling me, Kerry needs to do this or that.

I told her that he was getting tough and he was speaking out!

I say all that to say,the mind games of the Media are WORKING that is why they keep doing it. It was was working,they would stop doing it.

I believe that Kerry is now running a great campaign. He tried to be positive at first but it doesn't work with this crowd. They are TRASH and Kerry is CLASS. Well , IMO, Kerry is now CLASS TRASH and I believe he can win that way.

Keep our eyes on the prize, think Supreme Court, think Halliburton, think Iraq.

[annxburns]

18. Okay, I got them

49% Bush and 42% Kerry.

Looks like the RNC took some of the Kerry supporters into the undecideds. But the important point is they haven't flipped to Bush and that Bush is not yet over 50% and that is the danger point for the incumbent. I'd feel much worse if Bush was at 53% and Kerry was at 47%.

These numbers are not great but Kerry can recover.

Edit because I cannot do simple mathematics.

[lancdem]

23. Thanks

That's about the reverse of the numbers after the DNC. It is good to see Bush under 50 percent - that's a silver lining.

(BTW, 54 plus 47 equals 101. :) )

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

20. this is a poll of people who actually answer their phone

who does that anymore? with caller-id and answering machines, these are people who are dumb enough to give personal opinions over the phone.

[rumguy]

25. * had a big bounce coming out of his convention in 2000, and

the polls leading up to election day all said that * would win the popular vote.

we all know how that turned out.

[mac56]

26. DOOMED!

We're all doomed.

Everybody needs to take a deep breath and lighten the hell up. Post-convention bounce. And we need to fight as though we're ten points behind anyway.

[F.Gordon]

27. This one paragraph skunks the entire poll

The Republican convention’s success even went as far as to make Kerry, not Mr. Bush, appear to be the candidate who is more likely to be on the attack, a turnaround from a few weeks ago. By eight points, voters see the Bush campaign as explaining what it would do, not attacking Kerry.

..actually TWO paragraphs....

64 percent of Bush voters say they strongly support their candidate, compared to 43 percent of Kerry voters who say the same.

[demanddimmer]

31. KERRY ROCKS!

Whose side is CBS on anyway!!!!

[dennis4868]

32. This makes me mad as hell....

"Though most Democrats still disapprove of the President’s handling of terrorism, 36 percent of Democrats now approve, up from 24 percent prior to the convention. "

Why would it jump to 36 percent? Based on what? Iraq is a mess and al qaeda is stronger because of that....WTF?

[lancdem]

35. Blame it on the RNC

and even the article mentions much of the survey was done before all the fatalities in Iraq.

[dennis4868]

36. If more than 10% of Dems vote for Bush....

then we only have ourselves to blame....I canot think of one objective reason why a true dem would vote for Bush....Bush is everything that a democrat is not...pro guns, anti environment, corporate greed, unfair tax system, illegal wars, etc...what in the world are these dems thinking?

[lancdem]

38. They'll come back to Kerry

Remember, this is Bush's peak. It's all downhill from here.

[dennis4868]

39. what scares me....

is that they even left? why in the hell would they leave? I thought our party was suppose to be so united coming out of the primaries....

[The_Casual_Observer]

34. Sure, and Dean was going to be the nominee

according to these same assholes.

[kennetha]

40. Not such a bad poll

It's 49 Bush 42 Kerry. Bush is under 50%. Can't tell whether they polled Nadar. But I regard the 9% undecided/Nadar as "parked" Kerry votes.

Can't tell if they also have a "likely voter" model.

Another factor that mitigates this is that Kerry only gets 80% of democrats, while Bush gets 90% of republicans. This means that Kerry has an easy way of increasing his vote -- shore up support among his base.

Question: has an incumbent president polling below 50% this late ever gone on to win in a two-way race?

[SierraMtns]

41. Don't worry. Only IDIOTS vote against Kerry

Our next First Lady just made the claim that only Idiots vote against Kerry's plan. She is right and as soon as the people hear this they will vote Kerry to avoid the "Idiot" title. Don't worry!