Analysis: Picking on the wrong guy in Iraq

[NNN0LHI]

http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20040527-122227-6511r

WASHINGTON, May 27 (UPI) -- When Uncle Sam picked a fight with the radical Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr, the powers that be must have imagined it would be a quick fight. A rapid knockout in the first round after a few punches thrown in for effect. That would have been a welcomed victory at a time when something positive was badly needed to counter the daily downbeat news emerging from Iraq.

Sadr junior, only 25-years-old, -- a super lightweight -- would be knocked flat to the mat in no time. The radical Shiite cleric should have been no match for the super-heavyweight, the 228-year-old, only remaining world super power, armed with far superior firepower. But politics in the Middle East are deceiving; they are never what they first appear to be. The reality is always far more complicated, and the outcomes of Mideast ventures -- particularly non-clearly defined military undertakings -- are never clearly defined at the outset.

Uncle Sam did not realize that although Sadr was young, largely inexperienced -- he is not even an ayatollah -- and his followers numbered only in the mere hundreds, he was playing on the immense popularity of his deceased father.

In fact, the firebrand cleric accomplished something that took the United States and many others completely by surprise. Not only did his feisty resistance to the U.S. attempt to apprehend him fail, but also Sadr succeeded in rallying Sunni Muslims to his Shiite-led insurgency, a first in the usually sectarian-fractured Iraq. snip

Much as Sunni volunteers flocked to Afghanistan to fight the Soviet invader in the 1980s, so too, could the United States find itself suddenly facing thousands of Shiites, ready to support a hothead young cleric who should have not lasted more than one round.

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[leftchick]

1. wtf? Did ANY of these neocon "intellectuals" read a History book?

Excellent article Don! The news "media" keep downplaying his significance too! We shall see....

<snip>
One gigantic miscalculation on the Americans' part in their dealing with Sadr was in believing that he would be left alone in the fight. This is not the way the Shiite community behaves. History has shown that they traditionally stand by each other, despite their differences.

Sadr is not just a firebrand cleric. "He has an audience growing by the day as Americans continue attacking him and the holy Shiite cities of Najaf and Karbala," stated Ibrahim, the former New York Times correspondent, who has spent considerable time in the Middle East. "Millions of Shiites are watching that mayhem."

Besides Sadr's followers and those watching from the sidelines in Iraq -- a country of nearly 25 million, of which 60 percent are Shiite -- 65 million more Shiites in neighboring Iran are keeping a very close eye on developments in Iraq.

According to a number of observers in the area, Iran is widely believed to be playing an active role in financing and arming Sadr and his Mehdi Army. Some analysts believe Iran has dispatched hundreds of intelligence agents to Iraq.

[Ironpost]

2. How could any one

think that this Whitehorse could even get this right is beyond me.

[bhunt70]

3. nice boxing references

but as a fan of boxing I know that upsets are common.

[54anickel]

4. Another tie to Iran?

Besides Sadr's followers and those watching from the sidelines in Iraq -- a country of nearly 25 million, of which 60 percent are Shiite -- 65 million more Shiites in neighboring Iran are keeping a very close eye on developments in Iraq.

According to a number of observers in the area, Iran is widely believed to be playing an active role in financing and arming Sadr and his Mehdi Army. Some analysts believe Iran has dispatched hundreds of intelligence agents to Iraq.

[htuttle]

5. Actually, Iran gives a lot more support to the Badr Brigades than to Sadr

The Badr Brigades are a militia made up of (former) Iraqi Shiite exiles trained in Iran. The US Army is rumored to have used some Badr Brigade militia during the siege of Fallujah, and the SCIRI (Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq) they represent is Iran's direct voice on the IGC (along with Chalabi, it turns out).

In fact, the al Da'wa party and Sadr had something of a falling out with the SCIRI many years ago. SCIRI wanted to place their militia directly under the control of Khomeini in Iran, while Sadr's al Da'wa party preferred to remain independent.

Traditionally, Iran hasn't been very supportive of al Da'wa, even when al Sadr's father was alive.

[NNN0LHI]

6. It appears that the lines are blurring between the different brigades to me

Our soldiers are not able to tell one Iraqi from another. They are going to light up any Iraqi regardless of their political affiliation. Doing so will not make any new friends for us over there.

Add that to the fact that even the Sunnis are now allied with Sadr and things ain't looking so good.

Don

[54anickel]

7. Thanks htuttle! It all seems to just get deeper and deeper. Guess that's

what happens when you choose to go to war unilaterally and without doing you history homework. Then again there's that pesky little issue of not planning an exit strategy.

[Karenina]

8. How about...

EXIT. STAGE RIGHT. ;-)