http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/latimests/20040406/ts_latimes/aminorclericoramartyr&cid=2026&ncid=1480<snip>
WASHINGTON — In seeking the arrest of radical Iraqi cleric Muqtader Sadr, the Bush administration is gambling that the Shiite leader still has a limited following that can be neutralized without disrupting U.S. plans to hand sovereignty over to a fledgling Iraqi government in three months.
The U.S.-led coalition has avoided confrontation with Sadr for 10 months, preferring to try to isolate him politically. But Sadr's faction has attracted new support, and he has turned to more confrontational tactics. So rather than allow his organization to gain momentum and possibly undermine the interim government that is to take power in July, the administration has concluded that it needs to deal with him now, U.S. officials say.
The interim government may be especially vulnerable to disruption as it seeks to begin operations and organize elections, U.S. officials and experts say. And because the core of Sadr's support is in the slums of the capital, that could make him a special threat, they say.
But despite the U.S. confidence that Sadr is only a "relatively minor cleric," in the words of one official, it is difficult to anticipate the Iraqi public's reaction to any American move against him.