STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday August 17

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday August 17, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 16, 2010

Dow... 10,302.01 -1.14 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq... 2,181.87 +8.39 (+0.39%)
S&P 500... 1,079.38 +0.13 (+0.01%)
Gold future... 1,226 -0.70 (-0.06%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.60 +0.02 (+0.82%)
30-Year Bond 3.73 +0.02 (+0.46%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Housing Starts Jul
Briefing.com 550K
Consensus 555K
Prior 549K

08:30 Building Permits Jul
Briefing.com 570K
Consensus 573K
Prior 583K

08:30 PPI Jul
Briefing.com 0.1%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior -0.5%

08:30 Core PPI Jul
Briefing.com 0.1%
Consensus 0.1%
Prior 0.1%

09:15 Industrial Production Jul
Briefing.com 0.8%
Consensus 0.6%
Prior 0.1%

09:15 Capacity Utilization Jul
Briefing.com 74.8%
Consensus 74.5%
Prior 74.1%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[SarahB]

24. Economists will be shocked! Again.

Everything's worse than "expected" and last month was revised down, too.


Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 17 08:30 Housing Starts Jul 546K 550K 555K 537K 549K
Aug 17 08:30 Building Permits Jul 565K 570K 573K 583K 586K
Aug 17 08:30 PPI Jul 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% -0.5%
Aug 17 08:30 Core PPI Jul 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

[UpInArms]

26. 8:30 reports:

8:31a July core producer prices up 0.3%

8:31a July producer prices up 0.2%

8:30a July housing starts up 1.7% to 546,000

8:30a July housing starts down 7.0% year-on-year

8:30a June starts revised to 537,000 vs. 549,000 prev.

8:30a July starts weaker than 555,000 expected

8:30a U.S. July housing starts up 1.7% to 546,000

[ozymandius]

2. Oil hovers above $75 in Asia amid economic worries

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia – Oil prices edged up in Asia for the first time in five days Tuesday with gains tempered by signs of a slowing global economic recovery that could dent demand for fuel.

Benchmark crude for September delivery was up 14 cents to $75.38 a barrel at afternoon Kuala Lumpur time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 15 cents to settle at $75.24 a barrel on Monday.

Japan's surprisingly low economic growth in the second quarter, coupled with a disappointing regional manufacturing report in the U.S. dampened market sentiment. Indicators from China, the world's biggest energy consumer, also show growth is slowing as Beijing clamps down on a credit splurge.

In other Nymex trading in September contracts, heating oil added 1.1 cent to $2.00 a gallon and gasoline rose 1.4 cent to $1.938 a gallon. Natural gas was higher by 0.1 cent at $4.229 per 1,000 cubic feet on the Nymex.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Demeter]

40. Sam's Club Offering Regular at 2.59 If sign can be believed

Since I had a full tank, I didn't try it...elsewhere, $2.73-$2.89

[ozymandius]

3. Federal Reserve cracks down on mortgage fees

...

The central bank said Monday the new rules, which go into effect next April, will bar lenders from steering borrowers into loans that are not in their interest solely because they can receive inflated fees.

Such fees have been a contentious issue in the mortgage industry. Consumer advocates have charged that mortgage brokers fed the housing crisis by steering people into risky home loans that wound up going bust.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100816/ap_on_bi_ge/us_federal_reserve_mortgage_lending

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Obviously - closing the door now is ridiculous since the horse left the barn four years ago. But late is better than never, I guess. :shrug:

[Demeter]

15. By Next April, There Won't BE any Borrowers, Anyway

It's all good.

[ozymandius]

4. Home builder mood sours

WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. home builders' optimism hit a near 1-1/2 year low in August and a regional manufacturing gauge grew more slowly than expected, implying the economic slowdown continued into the third quarter.

The reports on Monday came on the heels of data last week showing tepid retail sales growth and benign inflation pressures in July. Still, most economists do not believe the U.S. economy is slipping back into recession.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index slipped one point to 13, defying market expectations for a rise to 15. It was the third consecutive month of decline in the index.

A reading above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor, but the index has not been above that level since April 2006.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100816/bs_nm/us_usa_economy

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Reminder: the economists who believe that the economy is slipping back into recession are probably the same who forecast a rise in builder optimism.

[ozymandius]

5. Largest 2009 economies by gross domestic product

A look at the 10 largest economies in the world by Gross Domestic Product for 2009, according to the International Monetary Fund. Figures all are in U.S. dollars

United States $14.26 trillion
Japan $5.07 trillion
China $4.91 trillion

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100816/ap_on_bi_ge/us_china_surging_ahead_glance

[ozymandius]

6. World markets rise modestly amid growth worries

BANGKOK – World markets mostly posted modest gains Tuesday as a steady drumbeat of bad news about the global economic recovery kept new bets on stocks in check.

In Europe, France's CAC-40 was up 0.6 percent to 3,618.51, Britain's FTSE 100 was higher by less than 0.1 percent at 5,276.10 and Germany's DAX added 0.5 percent to 6,139.85.

Among the advancers in Asia was China's Shanghai Composite Index, which added 0.4 percent to 2,671.89 and South Korea's Kospi, up 0.7 percent to 1,755.03. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.1 percent to 21,137.43.

Sustained strength in the yen magnified lackluster sentiment in Japan, where the Nikkei 225 stock average fell 34.99 points, or 0.4 percent, to 9,161.68.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100817/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[Dr.Phool]

7. This place is going to the dawgs.

Tansy asked for fresh pictures. And with all of our problems, dogs are a good diversion.

A week ago Saturday, the wife was coming home from a birthday party at about midnight, and saw a kitten sitting in the middle of the road. Rather than let it get run over, she brought it home. So, Sara has a new friend. I think we'll Fed-ex it to Demeter.


?t=1282037972

?t=1282037972

Now, if I could just get photobucket to work again, I wouldn't need to use links.

[ozymandius]

9. Charming pics

Sara seems to love her new friend. Do they still make cats where Demeter lives?

[Demeter]

17. Now More Than Ever

We had a kittypaloosa at the Humane Society...free spaying. Hundreds to choose from.

And we are trapping feral cats on the condo grounds.

[TalkingDog]

34. Now wait a minute.... if anybody is going to be passing out rescue kittens

It's going to be me. 4 this summer. These three are looking for loving homes:

Calico


Marmalade


CopCar

And no Fed Ex...hell, I'll drive them to you.....

The Spousal Unit says to note the Speed Racer "M" on all their foreheads....

[DemReadingDU]

36. such cuties!

CopCar?
Now that's a great name for a cat for a policeman!

[TalkingDog]

38. Kissable Cuties...We try to stick with descriptive generic names, but

Black and White was too clumsy.

If you know any policemen who like cats, he (CopCar) is very available.

[Demeter]

16. Can You Fed-Ex a Kitten?

Male or female? I'm not sure what the two old lady cats would do. It already strains their patience when the grandpuppy comes over, but...

a Kitten!

[tclambert]

45. I can tell from here Calico is a girl.

[Dr.Phool]

46. Yep.

A woman my wife works with has to go up north for a couple of weeks. She'll take her when she gets back.

[tclambert]

47. It's a bit of genetic trivia. Cats carry the orange/black gene on the X chromosome.

To have orange AND black, they need two X's.

[DemReadingDU]

19. aaahhh!

So cute together!

I've had dogs and cats together in my house, and never have any of them cuddled with the other.

[TalkingDog]

41. Bwahahahaha!!!! I'm going to make your head asplode!

http://www.vimeo.com/13368382

[Tansy_Gold]

23. Yes! yes! Oh, Thanks, Doc!!!

I finally figured out Picasa, Doc. Maybe you can try that?

As for dogs snuggling with kitties, best one I ever saw, about 35 years ago, was little black spayed Punkin, hardly bigger than a good-sized Chihuahua, nursing an unweaned, maybe 2-week-old kitten brought home by a friend's daughter. Eventually the cat was bigger than the dog, but they remained best friends forever.

I'm amazed at how much Sara looks like my many-breeds-mixed Biscuit. The BF says Biscuit has a beagle face, but I'm thinkin' more Lab??? What do I know?

With Moby, the Aussie of Unusual Size

[Dr.Phool]

25. The face looks kida labby to me.

Similar to the Fudd. He was a lab-golden mix, but there was some kind of hound in there too, because he had a hound bark.

[ozymandius]

8. Senators press SEC on off balance sheet activity

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Six Democratic Senators have asked the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission to require more disclosure about the trillions of dollars worth of debts and financial assets U.S. companies keep off of their balance sheets.

Led by Senate Banking Committee member Robert Menendez, the Senators said in an August 6 letter to SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro that they want U.S. companies to provide better disclosure about their off balance sheet activities -- ranging from investments, to financings, to leases.

Off-balance sheet transactions are legal under U.S. accounting rules, but have often been blamed for dramatic collapses such as those of investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings and energy trader Enron.

A spokeswoman for the Financial Accounting Standards Board, which writes U.S. accounting rules, declined to comment on the letter, which also asked the SEC to encourage the FASB to improve off-balance-sheet accounting.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100813/pl_nm/us_lawmakers_accounting

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Good on these people who aim to focus the SEC on its original mission. Whatcha wanna bet this would not happen if Republicans were running the show?

[ozymandius]

10. Think your job sucks? Be glad you're not Mervyn King.

U.K. Inflation Holds Above 3%, Forcing Letter by King (Update2)

Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. inflation held above the government’s 3 percent limit in July, forcing Bank of England Governor Mervyn King to write his third public letter this year to explain how he will bring prices under control.

Consumer prices rose 3.1 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 3.2 percent increase in June, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The result matched the median forecast of 31 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The bank will publish King’s letter to finance minister George Osborne at 10:30 a.m. today in London.

King predicted last week that inflation will slow below the 2 percent target next year as the government’s budget squeeze constrains growth. Today’s reading may harden a divide on the Monetary Policy Committee, where policy maker Andrew Sentance has argued for an interest-rate increase to tame consumer prices while other officials have warned more stimulus may be needed.

Under U.K. law, the Bank of England governor must write a letter to the chancellor of the exchequer every three months when inflation exceeds the 3 percent upper limit. King already sent explanations to the Treasury in February and May.

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It is an unenviable prospect to be forced to explain repeatedly why you have failed in your job. Consider, as well, that GB has a very high unemployment rate.

[Demeter]

18. Well, Timmy Doesn't Have That Problem, nor Bernanke

Even the O man seems above public criticism...

[Festivito]

11. Debt: 08/13/2010 13,315,417,951,875.00 (DOWN 1,630,885,642.12) (Fri)

(Down a little. Good day.)
Desk day, discovering dumb done doed-it dung do-dos.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,786,780,915,472.22 + 4,528,637,036,402.78
DOWN 288,829,216.29 + DOWN 1,342,056,425.83

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,227.13 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,872,485 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,970.64.
A family of three owes $128,911.91. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 4,838,628,986.28.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,870,903,189.02.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,746,035,344.22.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 218 reports in 317 days of FY2010 averaging 6.45B$ per report, 4.43B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 891 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/13/2010 13,315,417,951,875.00 BHO (UP 2,688,540,902,961.92 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,405,588,948,363.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,618,422,606,159.64 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/26/2010 +000,027,014,896.10 ------------******* Mon
07/27/2010 +000,542,206,084.16 ------------********
07/28/2010 -000,094,171,033.04 ----
07/29/2010 +003,752,718,531.15 ------------*********
07/30/2010 +000,337,023,124.63 ------------********
08/02/2010 +069,233,337,488.16 ------------********** Mon
08/03/2010 -000,228,970,360.68 ---
08/04/2010 +000,329,380,791.87 ------------********
08/05/2010 +005,243,790,680.65 ------------*********
08/06/2010 +000,053,282,619.67 ------------*******
08/09/2010 -000,264,966,096.92 --- Mon
08/10/2010 +001,721,061,315.43 ------------*********
08/11/2010 +000,095,029,920.46 ------------*******
08/12/2010 +008,430,031,924.23 ------------*********
08/13/2010 -000,288,829,216.29 ---

88,887,940,669.58 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4505062&mesg_id=4505132

[Festivito]

44. Debt: 08/16/2010 13,356,994,188,341.44 (UP 41,576,236,466.44) (Mon)

(Up a lot. Good day.)
Saying quiet goodbyes. Married over seventy years. Bye Ray.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,825,308,128,496.03 + 4,531,686,059,845.41
UP 38,527,213,023.81 + UP 3,049,023,442.63

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,226.93 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,892,424 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,102.04.
A family of three owes $129,306.11. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,322,292,449.58.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,903,014,463.02.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,777,110,770.67.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 219 reports in 320 days of FY2010 averaging 6.61B$ per report, 4.52B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 888 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/16/2010 13,356,994,188,341.44 BHO (UP 2,730,117,139,428.36 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,447,165,184,829.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,650,672,788,946.38 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/27/2010 +000,542,206,084.16 ------------********
07/28/2010 -000,094,171,033.04 ----
07/29/2010 +003,752,718,531.15 ------------*********
07/30/2010 +000,337,023,124.63 ------------********
08/02/2010 +069,233,337,488.16 ------------********** Mon
08/03/2010 -000,228,970,360.68 ---
08/04/2010 +000,329,380,791.87 ------------********
08/05/2010 +005,243,790,680.65 ------------*********
08/06/2010 +000,053,282,619.67 ------------*******
08/09/2010 -000,264,966,096.92 --- Mon
08/10/2010 +001,721,061,315.43 ------------*********
08/11/2010 +000,095,029,920.46 ------------*******
08/12/2010 +008,430,031,924.23 ------------*********
08/13/2010 -000,288,829,216.29 ---
08/16/2010 +038,527,213,023.81 ------------********** Mon

127,388,138,797.29 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4506317&mesg_id=4506349

[ozymandius]

12. Guess Who Benefits Most From Foreclosure Abatements?

From Ritholtz:

Just in case you missed this article in The Hill, the headline will save you from any suspense: Banks to benefit most from White House program to help fight foreclosures.

Here’s the bad news:

“Banks will get the biggest benefit from an Obama administration housing program designed to help unemployed homeowners escape foreclosure.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/guess-who-benefits-most-from-foreclosure-abatements/

The "Professional Left" strikes again with news of the banks' capture of all levels of government.

[ozymandius]

13. I see the unreccing crew has been busy again.

+6 before I started to make my son's lunch. +3 upon my return. Well, I wish those who disapprove of this thread a nice day, nonetheless. Remember: forewarned is forearmed. Even if the news is unflattering to your point-of-view a smart person will think about these things.

G'bye all :hi:

[Dr.Phool]

14. Have a good day.

And Sara rec'ed the thread.

[Loge23]

20. Plus this!

Don't let the negative nabobs get to you, OZY!
...SMW: One of a the very few things left that I make a point to read everyday.
Thanks all around to the usual suspects!

[mbperrin]

21. You're a good person, ozy!

I wish they'd all get just what they've got coming. And quickly!

You have a great day. I've got to get to school today myself. Students coming Monday!

[Demeter]

22. Terrorists on our site

woodathunkit? I'm thinking this whole unrec idea has proved itself less than useless. It is in fact harmful, enabling people to snipe at those who don't drink Koolaid.

[JNelson6563]

27. I love the Stock Watch Thread & Marketeers!

One of the things I love best is that it is more or less neutral on all the other stuff/nonsense here at DU. Between the avatar wars and the subtle "fuck yous" in sig-line pics/toons/quotes and the general nastiness that increasingly infects this place this thread is like a haven (for the most part). Even those who are participants in the aforementioned crap elsewhere in DU is is still generally left out of the picture in this thread.

As far as I'm concerned this thread and the LBN forum are two of the few great things left about DU. You all should be thanked every single day for this thread.

Julie

[Roland99]

28. I wholeheartedly concur (esp. with that last sentence!)

[tclambert]

48. And don't forget the music. I love the musical links.

Dogs, too. Could use more cats. Cats are natural Republicans, though (selfish and no sense of humor).

[Capn Sunshine]

53. What is DU coming to?

You've been posting this thread almost as long as the site has been here. I can remember when I traded on a trading floor posting here,and that was in like 2003. WHY would anyone feel the need to unrec it?

It's hard out there huh, Oz?

BY the way, it's hard for a hedge fund guy out here too. I have a friend at Pacific, they run like over three billion give or take 10 million, and know what their big ass trade is currently?
MSFT. leveraged long. It's trading at a p/e of ten ish, and the upside is potentially huge.

That's what you get for your minimum 20 million plus 1 plus 2. Fucking Mister Softie.

Meanwhile, me an the guys are all over the POT arb.
Probably a big pop in Mosaic tomorrow once the players in that realize Mosaic has a smaller cap and so is a more makable traget.

And my tomatoes look great!

[ozymandius]

54. Oh, I have a few ideas.

First thing: this thread tells them things they don't want to hear. The general position here is that if Obama is making a mistake then it needs to be called. Get in front of it. It will come back to bite the ass if the mistake is not owned by Obama.

That was the deal with Bush. If Cheney gave Bush an order to screw up in Sacramento then Bush would screw up while making the trip. We at DU would be collectively embarrassed when it happened but the brain damaged faithful would cheer him on. I find lefty sheep just as annoying as righty sheep.

Second: unrec abuse. There is no pleasing some people with a well-intentioned offering. They can only feel better when they ding people's threads.

Third: some regulars here (including me) have made enemies elsewhere at DU. Oh well.

It's not really hard. I just have difficulty understanding the mentality of the unreccing crew just as I grumble about the nebulous value of the unreccing feature. I offer my morning salute by wishing these people a 'good morning' - not out of gratitude - but from passive acknowledgement that, somehow, what I do here matters so much as to be identified and unrecced.

An additional wørd: Thank you for the extremely kind comments. I really do appreciate that.

[Capn Sunshine]

57. FWIW

I truly appreciate the thread, but because I'm active during trading hours, I rarely get to participate. But yeah, DU is fraught with foedom these days. There's guys that hate me because I don't buy the doomsday scenario. Todays industrial reports were encouraging; and what people overlook is that top line profits mean less bottom end job cuts.
For your morning post:

Economy Not as Bad as Investors Fear: (Minn Fed Gov) Kocherlakota

[Roland99]

29. 11:30 - Stocks gaining big on...umm...well... faith, hope, and love?

Dow 10,428 +126 +1.22%
Nasdaq 2,216 +34 +1.55%
S&P 500 1,095 +15 +1.43%
GlobalDow 1,856 +25 +1.35%
Gold 1,228 +2 +0.13%
Oil 76.39 +1.15 +1.53%


WalMart earnings coming in above estimates is enough for a triple-digit gain? mmm boy...what a solid foundation for a rally!!

[Demeter]

30. Snake Oil, Flimflam and Chinese Credit Card

Somebody's not keeping the powder dry now, for sure.

[DemReadingDU]

31. The Purpose Behind Engineered Economic Collapse

8/17/10 The Purpose Behind Engineered Economic Collapse By Giordano Bruno
Neithercorp Press

Everyone loves money. Even people like myself who abhor the abuse of money and commerce, who understand the fraudulent nature of the system we live in, still work hard and save so that we might attain a sense of stability within that system. Many people see money as a focal point to their existence. But is it really money that they are after, or is it something else entirely? In truth, money represents ‘security’ in the minds of the masses.

Money affords us the ability to survive, and the more of it we have, the safer we all feel. Because we subconsciously associate the extension of our very life with the variable health of the economic structure in which we live, we tend to become unwitting devotees to its continued existence, even if it is corrupt and condemned to failure. We gullibly deny the system or the currency that supports it is doomed to the contrary of all evidence because, even though it has beaten us bloody, we have never known anything else.

In light of this entrenched way of perceiving things, especially in the U.S., it is difficult enough to convince some people that the economy is in fact not providing the security they desire, but is actually destroying their future completely. To explain to them that this is deliberate, that the economy is designed to self-destruct, that is another prospect altogether.

Many people hit a proverbial wall on this issue because they simply cannot fathom that certain groups of men (globalists and central bankers) view money and economy in completely different terms than they do. The average American lives within a tiny box when it comes to the mechanics and motivations of finance. They think that their monetary desires and drives are exactly the same as a globalist’s. But, what they don’t realize is that the box they think in was BUILT by globalists. This is why the actions of big banks and the decisions of our mostly corporate establishment run government seem so insane in the face of common sense.

lots more...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-purpose-behind-engineered-economic-collapse
original link
http://neithercorp.us/npress/?p=674

[Roland99]

49. Just saw that in a reply to my thread here >>>>>>>

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8961683


What a great read there. Both parties are the same, save for a few voices left in Congress that get railroaded, marginalized, and ignored.

[TalkingDog]

32. Today's Theme Song (with a prescient nod to Annie D)

Ball of Confusion (The Temptations)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gy_aahkIdEI

People moving out,
People moving in,
Just because of the color of their skin,
Run, run, run, but you still can't hide.

An eye for an eye,
Tooth for a tooth,
Vote for me and I'll set you free,
Rap on, brother, rap on.

Well, the only person talking about loving thy brother is the preacher,
And it seems nobody's interested in learning, but the teacher,
Segregation, demonstration, intergration, determination, aggravation, humiliation,
Obligation to our nation.

Ball of confusion,
That's what the world is today, hey.

The sale of pills is at an all time high,
Young folks walk with their heads in the sky,
The cities aflame in the summertime,
And the beat goes on.

Evolution, revolution, gun control, sound of soul, shooting rockets to the moon,
Kids growing up too soon,
Politicians say, "More taxes will solve everything,"

And the band played on.

So, round and around and around we go,
Where the world's headed, nobody knows

Great Googamooga,
Can't you hear me talking to you,
Just a ball of confusion,
That's what the world is today, hey.

Fear in the air, tension everywhere,
Unemployment rising fast,
The Beatles new record's a gas,
And the only safe place to live,
Is on an Indian reservation.

And the band played on.

Eve of destruction, tax deduction,
City inspectors, bill collectors, mod clothes in demand,
Population out of hand, suicide, too many bills,
Hippies moving to the hills,
People all over the world are shouting, "End the war!"

And the band played on.

Great Googamooga,
Can't you hear me talking to you,
Just a Ball Of Confusion

[tclambert]

50. Great Googamooga, can'tcha hear me talkin' to ya?

Hardly a day goes by that I don't ask that question.

[TalkingDog]

33. It's going to get a whole lot worse.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-going-to-get-worse-a-whole-lot-worse-2010-08-17

Yes, it's going to get worse, a whole lot worse ... Bill Gross warns this is the "New Normal. Forget 10% returns. Think 5%". ... Economist Larry Kotlikoff, author of The Coming Generational Storm, warns: "Let's get real. The U.S. is bankrupt. Neither spending nor taxing will help the country pay its bills" ... Economist Peter Morici warns: "Unemployment is stuck near 10%. Deflation coming. Stock market threatens collapse. The Federal Reserve and Barack Obama are out of bullets. Near zero federal funds rates, central bank purchases, a $1.6 trillion deficit have failed to revive the economy." ... Simon Johnson, co-author of 13 Bankers, warns: "We came close to another Great Depression, next time we may not be so lucky." Why? Because Wall Street's already well into the next bubble/bust cycle -- the "doom cycle."


Ouch. That unvarnished truth is just a little rough....

[DemReadingDU]

35. Paul Farrell: it's going to get worse, a whole lot worse

oops, TalkingDog already posted, #33
:blush:

[TalkingDog]

37. Coming to a school near you: BYOTP

Bring your own Toilet Paper (among other things):

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/15/business/economy/15supplies.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=Bring%20your%20own%20toilet%20paper&st=cse

When Emily Cooper headed off to first grade in Moody, Ala., last week, she was prepared with all the stuff on her elementary school’s must-bring list: two double rolls of paper towels, three packages of Clorox wipes, three boxes of baby wipes, two boxes of garbage bags, liquid soap, Kleenex and Ziplocs.

Let's see, property taxes for the folks who can "only " afford to send their kids to public schools.... Let's use this example from Nevada (mostly because 200K is about the national average):

REAL PROPERTY

Taxable Value $200,000.00 X 35% =

Assessed Value $70,000.00

X $.0298 =

Property tax due $2,086.00

And let's say (based on a quick look at the intertubes and sticking with the state of Nevada) that the percentage of property taxes going to schools is about 20% (too much research to parse out the exact number, but if you are feeling froggy http://sunshinereview.org/index.php/Washoe_County_School_District,_Nevada)

So for a potential $400 bucks in property taxes she spends money buying items that used to be provided for "free". And if she has more than one it's an even worse deal.

Topping it all off, she paid retail prices for items the school system can buy in bulk at a deeply discounted rate.


I'd say Anti-Taxers have Moran Math Fail

(edited for my own math fail)

[Demeter]

42. I Lived that Way at Mass. State College in 70's

They would put in the lightbulbs for accreditation, then take them out. Toilet paper was unheard of, except in the Administration building!

[mbperrin]

43. Here's one of the elementaries in our district.

Kindergartners have to bring their own paper plates!

http://www.ectorcountyisd.org/ecisd/lib/ecisd/San_jacinto.pdf

[Demeter]

39. Back to 10,500 Like a Bird to the Nest

I'd sure like to ask the idiots who keeping supporting that what the F888 they think they are accomplishing.

Thanks to the donor who gave me a star--I don't deserve it, but thanks!

[ozone_man]

52. Patience, grasshopper

the bird will be abandoning the nest soon.

Maybe we should have a pool for when the last time the DOW crosses 10,000? To the downside of course. I thought it was back in 2002, but then there was the Bush/Greenspan war/refinance bubble, and now the Bernanke/Obama bailout bubble. I think the bubble blowing is about done, finally. Don't you think?

[Roland99]

51. 4:31p BREAKING API: Oil inventories up by 5.8 million barrels (*SURPRISE*)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/api-reports-surprise-oil-inventory-increase-2010-08-17

Washington-based trade group American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported a surprise increase in oil and energy products inventories. The API said oil stockpiles increased by 5.86 million barrels on the week ended Aug. 13. Stocks of gasoline rose by 2 million, while stocks of distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by another 2 million. Analysts polled by Platts had expected crude-oil inventories to decline by 2.25 million barrels in the latest week. The analysts also forecast a decline of 1.6 million barrels for gasoline stockpiles and an increase of 1.4 million barrels for inventories of distillates. More closely watched government data is scheduled for Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern.

[ozymandius]

55. ooga booga!

Let the crude oil market spooking commence. I can hardly wait to see what happens in Singapore. The markets have been open nearly an hour.

[Roland99]

56. Looks pretty healthy over there.

[Demeter]

58. 51 Recs. I'm beyond impressed

and a bit apprehensive. The local PTB are not going to be happy about this....