U.S. Economy: Leading Indicators Point to Sustained Expansion

[TomCADem]

Source: Bloomberg

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economic recovery will extend into next year as manufacturing expands and the pace of firings abates, reports today indicated.

The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators, a gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months, rose 0.3 percent in October, preserving a string of gains that began in April. Other reports showed claims for jobless benefits held at a 10-month low and Philadelphia-area manufacturing accelerated.

The rally in stock prices, low short-term interest rates and slowing job losses that propelled the leading index signal consumer confidence and spending are likely to stabilize, limiting the risk the economy will retrench. The data supported Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s forecast today that the emerging expansion will be sustained into 2010.

“It’s very clear that the economy is now expanding, but I don’t see it being a vigorous expansion,” said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York, who correctly forecast the leading index. “We are seeing a gradual improvement, but the key word is ‘gradual.’”

Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHjrqduC48Ok&pos=3

---

Of course, these indicators mean squat relative to the unemployment rate, which is a lagging indicator.

[Cant trust em]

1. We'll see what happens in time for next year's election. nt

[tonysam]

2. And the unemployment rate and job creation are what matter n/t

[dmallind]

5. Really? When did the recession start then?

Did it only start when unemployment started to rise?

[FBaggins]

6. The NBER doesn't rule voters' perceptions

They make the "official" determination on when the economy moves from expansion to contraction (and visa-versa), but individuals decide for themselves whether they're happy with current economic performance.

By that standard, the recession began when the stock market tanked - and won't be solid again until unemployment improves markedly.

[pampango]

19. It's like determining when "winter" arrives. There's an official definition and the "It's too cold

outside" definition. If it snows around Thanksgiving, it's winter. If it's 60 on Groundhog Day, it's spring.

That distinction between "official" determinations of recession or winter and the subjective opinion that we all have about them is what makes starting over on HCR so dicey. With the public's view of the economy coupled with "it's the economy, stupid", the elections in 2010 and 2012 are more likely going to revolve around the economy - not good for incumbents - than it is about going for a better version of HCR.

[doc03]

7. How are jobs created? You can create some temporary

feel good make-work projects with government money but eventually the bill will come due. Real jobs are created when consumers buy goods and services.

[No Elephants]

17. That's why they say this economy is ruled by consumer confidence. Stories like this tend to make

consumers more confident. Or, so someone may hope.

Reality is, consumers are more confident when they have money in their pockets and at least an illusion that they have good propects for a reasonably reliable paycheck, whether from their current employer or a future employer. For that to happen, something dramatic has to happen to our economy and/or our laws.

[Craftsman]

3. No decent paying jobs = no recovery

[placton]

4. WOW! Happy days for them rich folks!

Let's throw a party. Like the Boss said in "Allentown," - "Boy those jobs are gone and they ain't never coming back." Thank you thank you, I will be here all week. Don't forget to tip now!

[kestrel91316]

16. I am one of those "rich folks" (I own a microscopic business),

and believe you me, I am gonna be way too busy paying off the debts I have incurred during the recession for the next SEVERAL YEARS to reap any personal windfall.

The recession came close to destroying me. It ate my entire savings (including retirement) and maxed out my credit cards, which then went into default.

This is a mighty deep hole I and many others like me are in. We aren't partying.

[No Elephants]

18. Placton did not define "rich."

[Demeter]

8. DOES NOT!

There is NOTHING in the leading indicators, the prevailing winds, or the crystal ball that even remotely suggests that we are in Recovery. We are still on a drunken binge, even if the liquor has been taken away, because nobody has sobered up yet. Nor has the damage from the drunken rampage been cleared way. The cops haven't even been called. No apologies, no reparations, no vows taken or given.

Fie on your lying recovery story!

[skoalyman]

9. Jobs snobs we don't need no stinkin jobs were america #1 baby yeah

:patriot: :patriot: :patriot: :patriot: :patriot: :sarcasm:

[madrchsod]

10. the post above this one on LBN......

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4153569

ya the leading indicators ....:rofl:

[fascisthunter]

11. U.S. Economy: means only Wall Street and it's investors

all else doesn't count, especially the employed. Fucking sick...

[jjray7]

12. No recovery can be sustained without

job creation. The US economy continues to shed jobs. Banks are not lending. It's ugly out there for all but the highest tiers of wealth in this country. I think this report is unadulterated propaganda. All we are seeing is the effects of the government stimulus. It masks the true state of private enterprise. The economy is just as likely to go into a second free fall as for economic expansion to continue for the next 6 months.

[optimator]

13. "the pace of firings abates"

only a business fuck could spin that as a positive.

[TexasObserver]

14. Recommend. I'm optimistic about 2010.

I think there's a fair chance we see the economy stutter in the first quarter, but overall, I think 2010 will see advances in JOBS, and that's the only thing that can sustain a recovery.

I expect January-February to have several bits of bad news, and that could mean rough sledding for the first quarter.

I favor WPA type action now, to provide jobs now. $200 billion from TARP unspent? That's a lot of jobs for the next year. Get busy.

[mbperrin]

15. GDP expansion and contraction are terrible measures.

For instance, a fire levels an entire city. Rebuilding the city raises GDP considerably, but in reality, only gets you back to where you started (if you're lucky). You just paid for two houses to get one.

Meanwhile, in a neighboring city, a healthy environment means fewer sick people, so fewer medical supplies are needed, so GDP falls.

Using these measures, disasters can be good news and a rising standard of living can be bad.

Stupid way to measure anything if you're a real person. If you're a vampire squid sucking the life out of a victim, though, it's pretty good.

So at best these types of numbers are misleading, at worst, downright deception and trying to make you happy because you have nothing. But Jesus will pay your electric bill, so no worries.