STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 11 March (#1)

[ozymandius]

Thursday March 11, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 318
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 90 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 142 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 354
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 838
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 10, 2004

Dow... 10,296.89 -160.07 (-1.53%)
Nasdaq... 1,964.15 -31.01 (-1.55%)
S&P 500... 1,123.90 -16.68 (-1.46%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.74% +0.02 (+0.43%)
Gold future... 400.30 -4.40 (-1.09%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[jamesinca]

1. Good morning citizens

On this bright and cheery Dec, wait March day. Got confused, the stock market looked like December again. I must admit I am torn on an issue. Should the markets, jobs etc... nose dive and fuel the anti-Bush sentiment? I know people will be fiscally hurt. Should I pull for a rosy economic picture and help Bush stay in office. He is campaigning that his policies will work, and if there is any up turn he will be saying it is his doings, like the 8.4% GDP back in Nov. Because of this, the Stock Market page here is painful to watch.

Regardless of your stance on the issue, may it be a good day for you on the markets today.

[ozymandius]

7. Good morning James and all.

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

Yesterday's numbers left me bitterly optimistic. This may seem paradoxical but there's a good explanation. Team Bush uses the stock market (or, rather, abuses) numbers as an indication of the overall health of the economy. I recall a little more than a year ago when Bush was asked how his tax cuts are helping the economy. He replied, "the stock market's looking up." Asshole. I suppose in his tiny little soundbite mind the stock market numbers are the single biggest arbiter of economic good health.

So like I said: I am bitterly optimistic of yesterday's numbers. A deflating market, in turn, deflates Bush's marketability.

EDIT: clarity

[NeoConsSuck]

17. I've wondered..

I have been thinking all along that this market was being manipulated to help Bush. Have it fade now, and in the two months before the election, have it zoom up 15-25%. Play on the masses short term memory.

One problem with that though. If Mr. & Mrs. Middle Class has already given up on the market by that time, the rise in the market is not going to help the Chimp one bit.

[ClintonTyree]

2. Futures don't look to bright.................

could be another down day? I've finally convinced my Mother to divest her Mutual Funds after months of prodding. As of this morning she'll be out of the market. She worries everyday about it, it's not worth the aggravation. I think she'll sleep much better tonight and every night hereafter knowing Wall Street isn't going to fleece her again.
I'm surprised gold hasn't taken off a bit. I'm very happy about silver though. I went long on silver about two months ago when it was at $6.11. It's over $7.00 now (at least the last time I checked KitCo.)
Could this be the start of the much awaited *correction*? The market has been running up on pure adrenaline lately, reality has to kick in sometime.

[Zynx]

3. Ooofff...That looks nasty.

I guess the market really took the Spanish news fairly badly. This usually happens when there is some kind of terrorist attack or violent act overseas even though it has no direct effect on the American economy.

On a side note, my investment in Procter and Gamble back in September of 2000 keeps looking better and better.

[ze_dscherman]

24. European stocks took a nasty pluge

German Dax lost 3.4% today - has been plummeting since several days, but not nearly as bad.

[ozymandius]

4. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

"Proceed With Caution"

Today marks exactly four years to the day of the all-time high for the NASDAQ Composite Index as it closed at 5,048 on March 10, 2000. Once the bubble was popped, it took 30 months to fall 3,934 points to the low close of 1,114 on October 9, 2002. Since then, the NASDAQ has rallied 1,039 points to the high close of 2,153 reached on January 26th of this year. It’s fascinating to me that this bear market rally has lasted 15 months, which is precisely half the amount of time it took to fall from 5,048 to 1,114. This counter-trend rally has retraced half the time of the previous fall, but in percentage terms it has only retraced 26% of the overall point loss. At this juncture it appears stocks are headed for a reality check as the broad indices begin to crumble.

As the four-year cycle asserts itself from peak to peak, I see confirmation stocks should head lower by the lack of volume since the beginning of 2004. Note how the Relative Strength Index has turned decidedly bearish, while the On Balance Volume has broken cleanly below its 20-week moving average. The NASDAQ has been rejected from a very strong zone of resistance just above the 2000 level. While there isn’t much that can surprise me anymore with the “managed markets” of the 21st century, I firmly doubt we will see new highs for the NASDAQ Composite for the balance of 2004. If you are long equities, especially the small-cap stocks, it would be most prudent to realize some gains and go to cash on the sidelines. I have taken my clients and my personal accounts to 50% cash as I wait to see where the dust will settle.

<cut>
Listen to the Wisdom of the Years!

It really is not such a bad idea to go to cash (and possibly in currencies other than the dollar), especially if you take your lead from the world’s greatest investor, Warren Buffett! Mr. Buffett’s Berkshire-Hathaway is sitting on a cash mountain of $36 billion, and has chosen to place more than one-third of the cash in foreign currencies. Mr. Buffett has been pooh-poohed by many of today’s fast-lane momentum investors, but this man knows what he is talking about!

<cut>
I just went back to see what is happening in the market, and it’s beginning to look pretty ugly. If we get a couple more days of draw-downs tomorrow and Friday, stocks will be headed straight down next week as investor sentiment moves from complacency to outright fear! Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average was pounded for a loss of 160 points or 1.5% to 10,296, even with the good report from Proctor and Gamble indicating an increase in their dividend and improved guidance for third quarter results. The S&P 500 shed 16 points to 1,123 and the NASDAQ Composite was whacked for a loss of 31 points to close at 1,964. It’s time to get out of the way folks!

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

18. On the BoJ up to their old tricks again -

Seems they have changed their tactics a bit and truly have the currency markets in a tizzy trying to figure out their next surprise move.

Yesterday, I posted the article referring to their hands in the Euro/Yen. Here are a few more articles regarding trading. Seems everyone is speculating that BoJ will back after their fiscal year end this month.

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/03/11/rtr1294653.html
FOREX-Euro rebounds, Swissie up after Madrid explosions

LONDON, March 11 (Reuters) - The euro rebounded after hitting one-week lows against the dollar and the safe-have Swiss franc rallied broadly after news of explosions on packed rush-hour trains in Madrid on Thursday.

snip>
"There's been buying of Swiss across the board on the back of the terrorism activity," said a London-based trader.

snip>
Dealers said the dollar's unexpected gains on Wednesday after the U.S. reported a record trade deficit for January and continued rally earlier on Thursday suggested the market was still long of euros after the single currency's race to all-time highs in February.

"Certainly there was no fundamental news you could pin the euro's down move on," said Adam Cole, senior currency strategist at Credit Agricole Indosuez.

"The positions that have built up have been so large that as they have been taken out that has overwhelmed the fundamental news."

snip>
CHANGE IN TACTICS?

The dollar eased to 110.57 yen, a touch lower from the U.S. close.

The dollar's drop below 111 yen in the previous session indicated Japan might be changing tactics in its latest phase of aggressive yen-selling intervention, pulling out of the market only to come back in at lower levels.

Traders say the Bank of Japan has recently withdrawn dollar/yen bids only to come back in at lower dollar levels.


http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1078381694040
Yen firms as inward capital flows increase

The dollar lost ground against the yen in London morning trade on Thursday, but maintained its newfound strength against European currencies.

However, few were convinced the dollar's fundamental weakness had been radically altered, with most analysts instead alluding to further profit-taking in erstwhile high-flying currencies such as sterling and the euro.

snip>
The market was also absorbing data showing overseas investors poured $9.5bn into Japanese equities in the week to March 5, up from $2.4bn a week earlier, while Japanese investors sold $6bn worth of overseas bonds. The numbers further strengthened the case for yen appreciation if BoJ intervention was to cease.

"Yen positive flows have only been bigger on three occasions in the last three years," said Adam Cole, senior forex strategist at Credit Agricole Indosuez. "Against this background the BoJ's success in holding dollar/yen above Y110 is impressive. But will this commitment last?" asked Mr Cole, who expects to see these private sectors flows allowed to feed through to the dollar/yen rate after the Japanese fiscal year-end.

These trends allowed the yen to rise to a near four-week high of Y198.58 against sterling and Y134.56 against the euro.


http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/102990/content.asp?menu=technicalanalysis&dia=1132004

snip>
Eur/usd 1.2210 usd/jpy 110.70 gbp/usd 1.8044.The Japanese yen continues to dominate the currency markets with s.c carry-trades being liquidated therefor buying of yen continues against the euro, aussie dollar and in particular the britisch pound (falling below the spychological 200.00)As the market still fears the BOJ intervention much of the unwinding goes trough the eur/usd gbp/usd etc.Boj intervention stance looks to soften with concern voiced by the us at this massive currency manipulation.Stockmarket staying weak but Japan relatively better off then the rest of the world.
Expect any rally in the yen crosses to be sold again with eur/jpy target at 133.80 and stg /yen at 198.60.....trades on the website....


http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/102044/content.asp?menu=forecasts&dia=932004

snip>
In USD/JPY it appears that BoJ/MoF have removed any activity from the market and consequently we now see the pair below 110.95 key level. The play now is to wait for BoJ to re-enter the market and go with them.

[PATRICK]

5. The push for outsourcing

This is not news but I learned some things quite accidentally to throw into the pot. In my sons' business his boss was asked if had people in India to contact for super super low wage outsourcing(with some presumption he had them already). That is a laugh since so far my son has yet to see a paycheck after a year and a half waiting for the product to be released. His boss yelled something about loyalty to America and hung up. In meetings with business groups the common worry is about Bush and other Bush situations(deficit, handling economy) figuring their goose is cooked unless he goes.

My wife's business class did a paper about "external internal forces" and each person mentioned their business as rushing to please the market push for outsourcing(as they once did with downsizing and mergers) as the latest necessity to keep the stock up. The issue of what it does to the company and the utter devastation of morale and job security has no chance. Interestingly, the employees try to keep upbeat by defending this "business" profit enhancement. The tendency of course is not be critical or alarmed even as they report about people being critical and alarmed.

[Maeve]

6. Thursday is Initial Claims day

:hi: everyone!

Okay, the new claims for unemployment are expected to be 340-343K, down from last week's 345K and that should be announced in about half an hour. Also coming out at the same time-- February Import and Exports and Retail Sales.

:donut::donut::donut:

[ozymandius]

8. Good morning Maeve!

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

I see you lost your shadow.

Glad you're here for awhile. :hi:

[54anickel]

10. Hey Maeve! Good to see you indeed!

So, any guesses from our "see-er" on the UE report? Should be an interesting day regardless of the report.

Seems that bombing in Spain has shaken the world markets quite a bit today. Lots of money moving into Swiss Francs.

[Maeve]

13. I feel totally rusty after the past two months

No sense of what's happening economically except a sense of something hanging over our heads...but that could just be my latest visit to the gas station.

[dbt]

11. Maeve World Fan Club Says:

:hi:
:hi:
:hi:
:beer:
:loveya:
dbt

[Maeve]

25. Hello, darlin'!

I'm going to be in and out of here for a while--busy time for an Irish storyteller, don't ya know! But it's so nice to be back among friends!
:grouphug::toast::pals::toast::grouphug:

[JNelson6563]

9. Good morning all!

Maeve you are looking svelt today! ;-) James, I think you are right about metals. I'm long on gold in spite of the current value and would also be long on silver if I held any. Copper too. Up, up and away!

Ozy, loved your post about your optimism! haha :toast:

Having caught early morning action I'd say it looks grim today (again). Sure, sure there were bombings in Spain and it doesn't look like it was those crazy Basques this time soooo....it was probably our favorite bad guy Osama and/or his pals. I'd wager most members of the coalition of the schilling will suffer such retribution. The delayed reaction in futures tells me a brief story. Here it is: Investors are getting nervous, perhaps even fearful, and are just looking for an excuse to pull out. The End. Whaddaya think? :-)

UE #s out soon. I wonder how many dropped off the rolls/ran out of benefits last week.

Julie

[ozymandius]

15. Right on Julie! Today's WrapUp echoes your sentiments.

Two more days of the two previous days and we'll be into a full-on panic.

coalition of the schilling - Great phrase! And the world is a much safer place because BushCo says so. More reason to invade another Middle Eastern nation.

[Frederic Bastiat]

12. Hi all, equities trader here

I have to rush to work but what I have witnessed the past two days on my level II's is major institutional selling - the smart money is getting out ASAP, Buffet has his money on the sidelines etc

I haven't seen so much dumping in months, good luck everybody.

[ozymandius]

16. Thanks for dropping in exCav.

Please check in more regularly. I'm sure that many here would love to know what's happening in the trenches. :hi:

[whatelseisnew]

14. I am looking for some PPT action today, look for ....

look for a highly revisable UE number to be released

[ozymandius]

19. Number of Jobless Claims Dips Last Week

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing initial claims for jobless aid dipped last week while the ranks of workers drawing benefits fell to a 2-1/2 year low, the government said on Thursday.

First-time claims for state unemployment insurance fell 6,000 to 341,000 in the week ended March 6 versus a revised 347,000 claims the prior week, the Labor Department (news - web sites) said.

The latest figure, the lowest since late January, was close to expectations on Wall Street. Economists had forecast claims to hold steady at the 345,000 initially reported for the Feb. 28 week.

<cut>
In addition, the number of people continuing to draw benefits after an initial week of aid dropped 41,000 to 3.03 million in the week ended Feb. 28, the latest week for which the data is available. It was the lowest level of so-called continued claims since July 2001 and offered a further sign of labor-market improvement.

story

[Maeve]

21. Of COURSE the number of continuing benefit-drawers has dropped

They FELL OFF the rolls! Where is the reporting on THAT tidbit? :grr:

Retail sales are "disappointing"--the auto industry is still carrying the day. Face it, cars and houses are the only thing that's keeping this economy going. The house is an investment and piggy bank and the car--well, buying when you can get a great deal makes sense if you're unsure of the future.

My pessimism is returning.

[54anickel]

23. 8.171 million w/o jobs in unemployment rate-but 13.585 million want FTwork

Papau has posted this in the Economic Forum.

These are the numbers that the don't bother to publish or discuss. The actual numbers of unemployed/underemployed. This is very sad indeed and something that should be in the discussions regarding the lost jobs since Shrub stole the election.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=114x6865

[54anickel]

22. There's that previous week revision again.

So the fall is again greater. What will next weeks revision of this weeks 341k be? This is getting old as well. :eyes:

[kitkatrose]

53. How do they get away with the numbers?

I mean, I've been reading this thread since I've been here and most Thursdays it seems as if the claims have been revised to make the drop look bigger, or to make it seem as if there is a drop. WE notice, why don't others watch for it and bring it up in the news or something?

[UpInArms]

20. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.69 Change -0.26 (-0.29%)

related articles:

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/103360/content.asp?menu=market&dia=1132004

Dollar steady after fending off weak US data

The dollar was supported on Thursday as its recent resilience in the face of weak U.S. data and wariness about Japanese intervention discouraged investors from selling the currency.

The dollar rose sharply against major currencies except for the yen and the Canadian dollar on Wednesday despite an unexpected rise in the U.S. trade deficit to a record high of $43.1 billion in January.

The data hardly rocked the dollar, even as it knocked the Dow Jones average to this year's low, leading many market players to conclude that position adjustments were driving the forex market, not fundamentals.

The euro was little changed from late U.S. levels around $1.2195 The common currency fell 0.8 percent on Wednesday and was about six percent below its record high of $1.2930 hit last month.

The pound was more or less flat at $1.7995 off its two-month low of $1.7962 hit on Wednesday, Against the yen, the U.S. unit was little changed from late U.S. levels around 110.82 yen, largely held up by everlasting wariness about Japanese dollar-buying intervention.

The pound has taken a beating this week on data showing that Britain's trade deficit in January widened due to a fall in exports resulting from the pound's recent strength.

US stocks drop after record U.S. trade deficit

Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday, canceling out the Dow Jones industrial average's gains for the year, as investors shunned equities after data showing a record U.S. trade deficit cast doubt on the soundness of the economic recovery.

The technology-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index lurched deeper into negative territory for the year, falling for the fourth session in a row. The index is down 60 percent from its all-time closing high of 5,048.62 on this day four years ago.

Questions about the economy popped up last week after a weak employment report. Investor confidence in the economy was shaken again on Wednesday by data showing the U.S. trade deficit widened to a record $43.1 billion in January, according to the Commerce Department.

The Dow Jones industrial average ended down 160.07 points, or 1.53 percent, at 10,296.89. The S&P 500 Index closed down 16.69 points, or 1.46 percent, at 1,123.89, while the NASDAQ Composite Index ended down 31.01 points, or 1.55 percent, at 1,964.15.
It was the largest daily percentage loss for both the Dow and the Standard & Poor's 500 since Oct. 22, 2003.

http://www.theherald.co.uk/business/11717-print.shtml

Pound dives against the dollar

THE pound dived almost four cents yesterday to hit a six-week low against the dollar, as weak UK trade data released earlier this week started to hit home.

Sterling plunged from $1.8375 to $1.7993 on the London market close as a result of Tuesday's data, which showed a record trade deficit in January and exports to the United States plunging 30%, hit by the pound's recent strength against the dollar.

The shock figures showed that the UK's global goods trade deficit had jumped from a downwardly revised £3.97bn in December to £5.58bn in January the largest monthly shortfall since the records began.

The City had expected the deficit to be unchanged from the original estimate for December at around £4.2bn.

UK exports of goods to the US crashed from £2.69bn in December to £1.9bn in January, while sales from the UK to Asian countries which have currencies either pegged or related closely to the dollar also tumbled.

Naeem Wahid, a currency strategist at HBOS, said: "Sterling fell right across the board on Tuesday following the trade statistics and there was still some follow-through yesterday."

Even the release yesterday of data showing a record US trade deficit of $43.1bn in January failed to curb the greenback's recovery against the pound.

Wahid explained: "Although trade figures from the US were not too different from expectations, the US actually managed to narrow its European Union trade deficit ... which has had an impact on European currencies.

"The real big trade deficit for the US was with China and Canada."

The US trade deficit with western Europe fell from $11.1bn in December to $6.58bn in January, according to the figures out yesterday.

Paul Dales, at Capital Economics, said: "Our end of the year forecast is still for the pound to strengthen against the dollar and reach $2.

"This is based on economic factors like the high interest rates in the UK and burgeoning current account deficit in the US."

...more...

http://www.forbes.com/home_europe/newswire/2004/03/10/rtr1293614.html

Treasury yields' drop may presage more dollar pain

NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters) - The most dramatic three-day drop in benchmark U.S. Treasury yields since the mid-1990s has global investors once again poised to beat up the dollar in favor of higher-yielding currencies.

The heavy dollar selling that followed the dive in Treasury yields telegraphed doubts over the pace of U.S. economic recovery after a dismal U.S. jobs report solidfied thinking that the Federal Reserve will keep its official interest rate at 1.00 percent for longer than previously anticipated.

That relatively low U.S. interest rate has been the dollar's Achilles heel, inspiring investors to push the U.S. currency down against higher- yielding currencies, and the interest rate differential is again in sharp focus.

"U.S. bond yields have declined...and broken through some fairly critical levels," which is potentially damaging for the dollar, said Greg Anderson, senior foreign exchange strategist with ABN Amro in Chicago.

The 10-year Treasury's yield -- which moves inversely to its price -- had plunged below 3.75 percent by Tuesday.

<snip>

In spite of the hefty dollar-buying interventions by Asian central banks, private sector flows into such U.S. dollar counterparts "will show up as being dollar negative at some point," Anderson said.

Global asset allocators and institutions may already be mulling shifts, some analysts warn.

<snip>

Already, some major U.S.-based pension funds that manage trillions of dollars have been goaded by low yields in U.S. bond markets to plan shifts into riskier investments, including some assets outside the United States, some research reports suggest.

Wow! Quite a crew in the SMW room this morning! :hi:

And really wonderful to see Maeve and Julie in here :grouphug:


Have a great day at the casinos, Marketeer!

[54anickel]

26. So is it fundamentals, or is it the BoJ tinkering in multiple currencies

as I posted in #18, OR...

is there something else a bit more sinister going on here. :tinfoilhat:

I am suspicious of all this upward movement in the US$ as it came directly on the heels of Shrubs meeting with Schroeder where Shrub reassured Schroeder of his "strong dollar" policy.
:tinfoilhat: :tinfoilhat: :tinfoilhat: :tinfoilhat: :tinfoilhat:

I do not trust that lying idiot son of an a$$hole and his maladministration. No sir-ee, I do not trust them one damned bit.

[ozymandius]

27. 9:36 - who put rocks in my basket?

Dow 10,251.48 -45.41 (-0.44%)
Nasdaq 1,956.51 -7.64 (-0.39%)
S&P 500 1,118.84 -5.05 (-0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 3.689% -0.046


The bond traders must be happy.

[ozymandius]

29. uglier by the minute

I do want to note, as mentioned yesterday, that the firsthalf hour is typically no indicator of the day's overall performance. Typically.

9:41
Dow 10,237.26 -59.63 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq 1,954.35 -9.80 (-0.50%)
S&P 500 1,117.39 -6.50 (-0.58%)
10-Yr Bond 3.690% -0.045

[ozymandius]

30. and uglier...

I am giving it a rest after this post. We'll see if there's a bounce at the top of the hour.


Dow 10,230.53 -66.36 (-0.64%)
Nasdaq 1,952.67 -11.48 (-0.58%)
S&P 500 1,116.31 -7.58 (-0.67%)
10-Yr Bond 3.693% -0.042

[spinbaby]

28. Dropping fast this morning

Down 54 points in the first 10 minutes and still falling.

[JNelson6563]

31. 9:46 looks grim

Dow 10,231.19 -65.70 (-0.64%)
Nasdaq 1,952.38 -11.77 (-0.60%)
S&P 500 1,116.57 -7.32 (-0.65%)
10-Yr Bond 3.693% -0.042

Ouch! I don't think make-up will effectively cover these bruises any longer.

Julie

[54anickel]

33. Give it a little more time...it'll come back near the waterline.

[UpInArms]

34. those pointy things are trying to poke

the watchers' eyes out :evilgrin:

Dow 10,252.08 -44.81 (-0.44%)
Nasdaq 1,960.98 -3.17 (-0.16%)
S&P 500 1,119.44 -4.45 (-0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 3.693% -0.042

[54anickel]

37. Will the blue light special shoppers be able to pull this one off?

On edit:

Heading a wee bit south again.

[ozymandius]

35. I think the market was just looking for a reason

to take a header. Reason(s) found. Correction underway.

The idea of market overvaluation has been discussed in mainstream circles for almost two weeks. Combine this with withering trade deficits, higher energy prices, an embarrassingly late PPI report and crippling employment numbers you have many internal reasons for a loss of confidence in the markets, as well the economy at-large. Now that scores are dead in Spain from a terrorist attack, European markets are shuddering their doors and windows for bond safe havens. Add that to our exernal reasons for a drop in stock market confidence.

[54anickel]

32. Will they regain their composure once the favorable numbers sink in

again? The Dow was down by as much as 66, but on its way back up again.

We'll have to watch the blather....it's amazing how the blather can sometimes point to a future move.

9:45AM: As expected, the cash market is off to a lower open... Today's session comes on the heels of three consecutive lackluster trading days, as well as uninspiring trade through most of February and March... Yesterday's session alone took the major averages lower by 1.5%... Accordingly, the Dow and the Nasdaq are down on a year-to-date basis and trading at their worst levels of the year, while the S&P 500 is holding on to only a small portion of its prior year-to-date gains...
Also contributing to the market's weakness are losses in the European and Asian exchanges, with the German DAX, for one, trading 3.2% down right now... News of massive train blasts in Madrid, killing over 170 people are also weighing on the sentiment... This morning's economic reports were generally favorable, with Retail Sales for February up 0.6% (in-line with consensus) and Initial Claims report at 341K (consensus 343K)...

9:15AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.5. Off their morning lows, futures indications continue to point to a notably lower open for the cash market.

9:00AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.0. Weakness is maintained, with the futures indications trading noticeably below fair value and continuing to point to a significantly lower open for the cash market at the open. The market's notable weakness over the past week and lackluster trade through most of February and March are inviting additional selling pressure, while news of massive train blasts in Madrid are contributing to the negative sentiment. A batch of generally favorable economic reports failed to alleviate the market's apprehensive posture - please see the Economic Briefing for more details on the economic reports.

8:33AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.5. The futures market continues to weaken despite the generally better than expected economic reports. The S&P futures dip 0.9 points to 10.1 below fair value; Nasdaq futures drop 1 point to 14.5 points below fair value. The market is lower in an extension of the largely disappointing trade over the past three sessions. Also contributing to the negative sentiment is news of massive attacks in Madrid, which are being attributed to the ETA by the Spanish government.

8:25AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.0. A batch of economic reports will be announced at 8:30 ET. The Initial Claims report for th week of 3/6 will shed some light on the state of the employment market. The consensus estimate is for a reading of 343K on the heels of last week's 345K. Retail Sales for February will also be reported.

[ozymandius]

36. 10:02 and a slight bounce

Dow 10,254.60 -42.29 (-0.41%)
Nasdaq 1,963.53 -0.62 (-0.03%)
S&P 500 1,120.77 -3.12 (-0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 3.693% -0.042

[54anickel]

38. Bit of blather with that one -

10:00AM: The opening weakness is being used as a buying opportunity, with the major averages lifting off their session lows and the Nasdaq lifting into positive territory, led higher by the hardware, semiconductor, and software sectors all of which are in the green... Despite the uptick, laggards of note remain more numerous for now and include the networking, telecom, utility, and drug groups... Note that the banking sector, which is particularly influential in determining market direction, has turned into the green after initial weakness...
Continued gains in the banking sector should limit the extent of the losses in the blue-chip averages...NYSE Adv/Dec 745/1817, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 651/1958

[UpInArms]

39. don't you just love that banking sector?

with the M&A of BofA and FleetBoston - they can eliminate 11,000 jobs!

Hurray! Yippee!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x414507

Analysts expect more layoffs following merger of banks (11,000 jobs)[/b}

[54anickel]

40. Yep, I feel like I've been thrown back into the 80's when I was in banking

Survived something like 5 to 7 M&As in my 11 years there.

[54anickel]

41. Slowly regaining composure at 10:17

Dow 10,257.63 -39.26 (-0.38%)
Nasdaq 1,969.43 +5.28 (+0.27%)
S&P 500 1,121.59 -2.30 (-0.20%)
30-yr Bond 4.649% -0.029

edit for html

[UpInArms]

42. not nearly so bad at 10:33 EST

Dow 10,278.08 -18.81 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq 1,973.17 +9.02 (+0.46%)
S&P 500 1,122.37 -1.52 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 3.713% -0.022

[54anickel]

43. Ya beat me to it. The resilence is just amazing, isn't it? Especially

the NASDAQ. Splash o' blather....

10:30AM: The major averages are showing an impressive degree of resilience, with the Nasdaq able to accomplish mild gains, despite its early weakness... The tech composite is outperforming the Dow and the S&P 500, which have pared their earlier losses in a noticeable fashion... Helping the Nasdaq show relative strengths is the semiconductor sector, which is staging a solid performance (SOX index up 1.1%)...
The group's resilience is particularly notable in view of the 4.7% decline experienced over the past three days by the SOX and given the fact that the semiconductor sector, with its lackluster performance since the middle of January, has underscored the Nasdaq's underperformance relative to its blue-chip counterparts through February...NYSE Adv/Dec 839/2086, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1071/1728

[ozymandius]

44. This reporting sounds like commentary at a race track.

All about the who-is and nothing about the why-is. Parhaps some folks made a couple of pennies on the falling prices?

[54anickel]

45. It is a very sad commentary, isn't it. No fundamental why's, just what

you should be chasing. I don't like the blather, but there are some days that it almost looks like that is what the gamblers use to place their bets.

[54anickel]

46. Here's an interesting view into the trader mentality

http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/040310/11329_2.html

Here's The Good News...IF You Are A Trader

On Wednesday, the Nasdaq (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News) tried to rally early but quickly found its high and sold off for a solid trend day lower.
This action has it hitting new lows for the calendar year (again), it keeps it well below its 50-day moving average, and it puts it further below overhead resistance. It also suggests, at least for now, that a top is in place here.

snip>
So what do we do? Now that the market has "tipped" its hand, we should see a plethora of shorts setting up on the first bounce. Therefore, start putting together your watch list on the short side. However, wait for a pullback since the market is so oversold (remember, the methodology is based on thrusts followed by pullbacks).

[54anickel]

47. And another - This is NOT "Investing". Sheep shearing is a much more

apt description. The little "buy and hold" guy doesn't stand a chance. Yet isn't that exactly what most financial advisors handling our mutual funds, 401Ks and IRAs are advising us to do. :eyes:

http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/040311/11330_4.html

The Game Is On

snip>
This corner is hoping that big red will hold which would enable the market makers and specialists to take price down to a significant discount for volatility band trades in the opening 30 minutes. Maybe we will get lucky and they will turn big red again.

snip>
That is how markets work, folks. The QQQs closed at 35.19, still in a price zone with a confluence of three to four numbers with the primary zone just below, which is the .236 retracement to the 19.76 2002 low of 34.42 and 200-day EMA at 34.15, so this corner is certainly hoping for that discount opening and will participate at various volatility band levels for today in case the specialists do gap them down. The QQQ volatility band levels for today are 1.0 -- 34.74, 1.28 -- 34.62, 1.5 -- 34.52 and 2.0 -- 34.30. This corner will be involved.

snip>
The long synthetic straddle put on the 1150 -1160 zone in the SPX is doing very well to say the least, and the out-of-the-money March calls were covered yesterday for three months of positive premium taken in vs. the long call, so every move in the market makes someone happy. The SPX AIV went out at 16.38 yesterday with the call at 15.46 and put at 17.58. That is vs. the 12.34 AIV last week. (Love it.)

We are in Wave 4 of the bull run from the 2002 lows, and we hope for a fifth wave that might take the SPX to the .618 retracement zone at 1254. That won't happen if the perception continues to grow that Kerry will win in November, and of course, the media is desperately trying to get that done. If there is no fifth wave, then looking at the weekly chart, I see that it could be at least an attempt at 1,2,3 top and that means another up move.

[KoKo]

48. And to go along with that here's Yahoo Finance update:

" Today may be another down session, or the market may prove able to put the lackluster trade of the past three sessions behind itself... Regardless, long-term investors should keep in mind that the experienced weakness is little more than an (arguably) necessary correction, as described in today's Big Picture brief...NYSE Adv/Dec 1110/1906, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1127/1741"

[54anickel]

49. 11:28 update

So, did Greenspin, Snow or Shrub speak. Or is this following the game plan I posted earlier. Fundamentals seem to be gone from the stock and currency markets these days.

Dow 10,254.22 -42.67 (-0.41%)
Nasdaq 1,962.33 -1.82 (-0.09%)
S&P 500 1,118.53 -5.36 (-0.48%)
30-yr Bond 4.666% -0.012

11:00AM: The Nasdaq stalled, with the semiconductor sector having returned into the red after being up over 1% earlier in the session, as indicated by the SOX index... Accordingly, the Nasdaq is hugging the flat line, while the blue-chip averages are showing mild losses... Trade, thus far, has been quite volatile and rather trendless, as the sizeable losses seen over the past three sessions continue to paralyze buyers... Sellers are not as active right now, as they have been of late, although note that the last three sessions saw particularly heavy selling toward the end of the session...
Today may be another down session, or the market may prove able to put the lackluster trade of the past three sessions behind itself... Regardless, long-term investors should keep in mind that the experienced weakness is little more than an (arguably) necessary correction, as described in today's Big Picture brief...NYSE Adv/Dec 1110/1906, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1127/1741

[KoKo]

50. Not meaning to be dense here. But what does this "Trader" comment mean?

(Is Haggerty saying Kerry is good for the market or bad? I don't understand his traders jargon) :shrug:

TradingMarkets.com
The Game Is On
Thursday March 11, 9:59 am ET
By Kevin Haggerty
What Wednesday's Action Tells You


We are in Wave 4 of the bull run from the 2002 lows, and we hope for a fifth wave that might take the SPX to the .618 retracement zone at 1254. That won't happen if the perception continues to grow that Kerry will win in November, and of course, the media is desperately trying to get that done. If there is no fifth wave, then looking at the weekly chart, I see that it could be at least an attempt at 1,2,3 top and that means another up move.

http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/040311/11330_4.html

[54anickel]

51. I wondered about that myself. A few thoughts that came to mind -

1) Kerry's call to repeal the tax-cuts, namely the capital gains. Perhaps he's concerned of going back to paying higher taxes on the fleece he is collecting.

2) Typical Repug talking point. They always like to say Dems are bad for the economy, and especially the stock market (history has proven that wrong - but most people buy into it anyway).

3) Afraid Kerry may push for corporate and fiscal responsibility thru reforms and regulations. (Heaven forbid!)

4) They guys main source for news and entertainment is Faux. :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

52. numbers at 12:19 EST and blather

Dow 10,302.82 +5.93 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,976.16 +12.01 (+0.61%)
S&P 500 1,124.00 +0.11 (+0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 3.712% -0.023

12:00PM: The market has spent the morning desperately searching for direction, but has not been entirely successful as trade has been volatile and generally trendless... The negative sentiment carried over from the sizeable losses seen over the past three sessions, combined with the market's generally lackluster activity through most of February and March, have continued to paralyze buyers today... Accordingly, the major averages have spent the bulk of the morning in negative territory... Solid performance in the semiconductor sector served as a catalyst for the Nasdaq's advance into the green...

However, the group has since backed off its session highs, taking some wind out of the tech- composite, as well... The market is also struggling in view of the sizeable losses in the overseas markets, where the Asian Nikkei and Hang Seng closed down over 1% and the European DAX, CAC, and FTSE are trading lower by 3.5%, 3.0%, and 2.2%... Contributing to the disappointing trade in the European exchanges is this morning's massive train blasts in Madrid that brought terrorism concerns back in the picture...

With the bulk of the sectors trading in the red, there's little in terms of influential leadership to the upside... Yet, keep in mind that the banking sector is flirting with the unchanged line, limiting the downside for the blue-chip averages... Other notable leaders to the upside include the aluminum, railroad, and specialty chemicals groups... Among the laggards of note are the networking, telecom, drug, gold, and oil services sectors... Elsewhere, the bond market extends its rally, with the 10-year note up 5/32, bringing its yield down to 3.71%...

[salin]

54. quite a large jump up in terms of magnitude. n/t

[Langis]

55. And down we go!

[UpInArms]

56. Market Numbers and blather

3:12 EST

Dow 10,230.52 -66.37 (-0.64%)
Nasdaq 1,964.01 -0.14 (-0.01%)
S&P 500 1,116.52 -7.37 (-0.66%)
10-Yr Bond 3.749% +0.014

3:00PM: The market has turned lower in the last half an hour on the report that the Spanish police have found a van with detonators and an Arabic tape... This has evoked concerns that this morning's massive train explosions in Madrid could have been the result of Al Qaeda's actions, rather than the Basque separatist ETA movement... Adding to the negative sentiment is news that France has raised its Terror Alert level...

It remains to be seen whether any of the geopolitical factors have merit, yet it's clear that the market is jittery and prone to swings on intelligence of potential terrorism threats, contributing to the overall sense of apprehension experienced by the market through much of February and March...NYSE Adv/Dec 1351/ 1911, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1416/1718

[54anickel]

59. Terra terra!

[UpInArms]

63. but...but...but...

*Co has made us safer!

How can this be?????

:scared:

[Timefortruth]

57. Dow now at -101.32 ?

That is a quick drop. Chimp must be starting to worry, I'm starting to worry but for a different reason.

?nocache=1079036947187
http://money.cnn.com/

Now at -103.85.

[54anickel]

58. Update coming into the last 1/2 hour Red everywhere

Dow 10,197.78 -99.11 (-0.96%)
Nasdaq 1,957.93 -6.22 (-0.32%)
S&P 500 1,113.64 -10.25 (-0.91%)
30-yr Bond 4.690% +0.012

edit to add US$

Last trade 88.46 Change -0.49 (-0.55%)

Settle 88.95 Settle Time 23:35

Open 89.12 Previous Close 88.95

High 89.36 Low 88.42

[Timefortruth]

60. Now the Dow is at -112.89

Earlier today I thought the hemorrhage was ending. This is creepy.

[UpInArms]

61. going deeper into the red

Dow 10,176.67 -120.22 (-1.17%)
Nasdaq 1,952.39 -11.76 (-0.60%)
S&P 500 1,111.48 -12.41 (-1.10%)
10-Yr Bond 3.747% +0.012

Dollar

Last trade 88.51b Change -0.44 (-0.49%)

[54anickel]

64. Dollar down, gold doing fairly well with the terra alert and all. Thought

we would have seen gold doing better much earlier in the day with all the geo-political issues being reported.

[KoKo]

67. Over the cliff here...a couple of Iossif's supports broken....

[54anickel]

68. Hey UIA, did Kerry move up in the polls again? Heh-heh

:evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

69. Must be the Tennessee flu season

http://www.mtsusidelines.com/news/631364.html?mkey=474913

Nearly two-thirds of Tennesseans are dissatisfied with the direction the country is heading in, according to the spring Middle Tennessee Poll.Political science professor John Vile said the disapproval numbers could be so high due to the primary season, and the prominent Democratic criticisms of President George W. Bush and other Republicans in power. There has been little competition in the Republican party, Vile said, and thus less of a focus on Republican issues.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x415272

[54anickel]

71. Couple more days with headlines like today may change those

Tennesseans minds....Damn close for that state right now.

The poll also found that if the presidential election was held today, Tennesseans would choose Bush over Sen. John Kerry, by a slim margin.

Forty-eight percent said they would pick Bush over Kerry, but 44 percent said they would choose Kerry over Bush. Though Bush is slightly ahead of Kerry, the final outcome will come down to choices made by the 8 percent of Tennesseans who said they were undecided.

[UpInArms]

72. Take Cover! Dive! Dive! Dive!

Dow 10,153.93 -142.96 (-1.39%)
Nasdaq 1,949.78 -14.37 (-0.73%)
S&P 500 1,109.62 -14.27 (-1.27%)
10-Yr Bond 3.747% +0.012

[54anickel]

62. Looks like the 11:00 am blather hit it on the head

Sellers are not as active right now, as they have been of late, although note that the last three sessions saw particularly heavy selling toward the end of the session...

[UpInArms]

66. we're into a "recovery" off the lows now

Dow 10,198.67 -98.22 (-0.95%)
Nasdaq 1,955.41 -8.74 (-0.44%)
S&P 500 1,113.00 -10.89 (-0.97%)
10-Yr Bond 3.747% +0.012

[West Coast Democrat]

70. Looks like it's headed down as much as yesterday....

at -130 now

[54anickel]

73. And dropping rapidly again 144, no wait, on it's way up a tad 137

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

[West Coast Democrat]

74. Wait...now it's down 160

another day like this, and we'll be back below 10,000

[54anickel]

76. 3:30 blather (love it when they use the term "Tank"

3:30PM: With half an hour of trade remaining, the market continues to tank on the heels of a Reuters report that an Al Qaeda letter claims this morning's bombings in Spain, according to the London Al-Quds Al-Arabi Paper... The blue-chip averages - currently at new session lows - are underperforming the Nasdaq on a relative basis and are spearheading the decline, with losses of 1.0%... In the Dow, 19 of its 30 components are in the red, with laggards of note including Coca-Cola (KO 48.56 -1.34), Altria (MO 57.25 -1.19), and General Motors (GM 45.05 -1.03)...

[54anickel]

78. Terra, terra, fear!!! Bombing didn't come into play til they tied it into

Osama!

WTF
Overvalued, overvalued!!! gets a yawn and buying on the dips.

Al Qaeda, Al Qaeda!!! gets the market to tank.

What's the real boogey man here?

Not buying it, I'll stick with the 11:00 blather for the explanation, day trader fleecing. Bid it up, tear it down.

[UpInArms]

75. no recovery

Dow 10,135.49 -161.40 (-1.57%)
Nasdaq 1,946.29 -17.86 (-0.91%)
S&P 500 1,108.14 -15.75 (-1.40%)
10-Yr Bond 3.747% +0.012

[West Coast Democrat]

77. Wow! Tanking!

Is this really because of terrorist attacks?

[54anickel]

80. Nah, probably because Kerry refuses to apologize for the "crooks"

comment. :evilgrin:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x415777

[nolabels]

65. Is it real or is it FAUX

Tommorow should be good day to watch, bargain shoppers comming to call or a little of that Black Friday stuff

btw, why do they call it Black Friday when everything goes into the red?

[Dogmudgeon]

79. Black Friday

To paraphrase Neil Young, "out of the red, into the black".

--bkl

[54anickel]

81. This is really gonna mess with the usual plays pulled on Fridays.

Gonna have a tough time bidding it up for the afternoon profit taking tomorrow. Should be an interesting day.

[54anickel]

82. Closing numbers & blather

Dow 10,128.38 -168.51 (-1.64%)
Nasdaq 1,943.89 -20.26 (-1.03%)
S&P 500 1,106.79 -17.10 (-1.52%)
30-yr Bond 4.690% +0.012

Close: Today shaped up to be the fourth consecutive down day for the market, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq shedding 4.4%, 4.3%, and 5.1%, respectively, compared to last Friday's closing levels... The disappointing trade was largely an extension of the lackluster trade seen through most of February and March, which combined with some geopolitical unrest, cooked up for a disastrous recipe, with the major averages closing down 1.0-1.6% on relatively heavy volume...
With respect to geopolitical happenings, this morning's news of massive train blasts in Madrid pressured trade in the European bourses, with the German DAX, for one, closing down 3.5%... While the U.S. markets were able to shake off much of the weakness associated with the bombings through the afternoon in belief that the Basque separatist ETA movement was to blame, news of Al Qaeda taking responsibility for the attacks which claimed the lives of over 170 people in Spain, served as a rude awakening for the market, which plummeted in response...

Accordingly, like in preceding sessions this week, favorable corporate developments such as National Semi's (NSM 39.08 +0.88) and Yellow Roadway's (YELL 32.61 +2.84) upward guidance failed to procure a broad-market response... The bulk of the sectors closed in the red, with laggards of note including the hardware, networking, software, telecom, semiconductor, biotech, drug, banking, broker/dealer, and oil services sectors, to name a few... Leadership to the upside was limited to the gold sector... Elsewhere, the bond market was little changed, with the 10-year note up 4/32, bringing its yield down to 3.71%...

[NeoConsSuck]

83. Who's kidding who here?

Things are not going to get any better until that cockroach is out of the White House.

I'm tired of seeing my 401k bleed.

And to think, with Clinton we had peace and prosperity.

<edited for grammar>

[llmart]

87. I'm with you.

Ah for the glory days of the Clinton years. Peace, properity, The United States with a favorable image around the world, no smirking idiot in the White House pretending to be a world leader. Sigh.

[JNelson6563]

84. Holy cow!! Blood everywhere!

What a day!

Dow 10,128.38 -168.51 (-1.64%)
Nasdaq 1,943.89 -20.26 (-1.03%)
S&P 500 1,106.78 -17.11 (-1.52%)
10-Yr Bond 3.747% +0.012

What a wretched week this has been! Dare we hope for better tomorrow?

Julie

[54anickel]

85. Better tomorrow?

I sincerely doubt it. The tie to boogie man Osama was made late in the day today. I'm sure there will be more baling out tomorrow, then again I could be way off on that.

It's a pity, so many deaths today and the market players just didn't give a dang until the boogie man's name was tied in and the reminder that it could have easily happened here sunk in.

Sad commentary. Seems Bushco has elevated Al Qaeda and Osama to the weapons of fear they've wanted to be instilled any time they want now. We'll probably see heightened alerts again when his poll numbers get lower.

[KoKo]

88. I checked out CNBC for a viewpoint "It's Al Quaeda/only a blip of a dip,

when it settles out, time to buy."

There was a time (before Bush) when CNBC tried to provide a balanced view of what went on in the markets. Gone...it's only a Corporate Shadow of itself. There was No analysis, just a couple of folks pumping that this was a blip, and then they switched to those Financial Whores, Kudlow & Kramer who laughed it all off.

This says to me things are going to get very bad in the next year. Will the market come back from this? Yes it will come back to maybe where it 's been the last year.

But, they NEVER addressed the fundamental problems with our whole economy, and that's something they would have done before Bush II.

So, I'm thankful for this site and Ozy putting it together every morning and 54 Nickle and UIA and the others contributors here. More chance of getting the scoop on reality here than "out there."

Although we can be bearish we sure the hell aren't "clueless." And that counts for alot, today. :-)'s

[54anickel]

89. Here's a fairly decent summary of the days events

Stocks Plummet After Attacks

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A51553-2004Mar11.html

snip>
Although news that an al Qaeda-linked group was claiming responsibility for bombings that killed more than 190 people served as the immediate catalyst for the afternoon drop, some market analysts point out that stocks have been falling at a steady clip for weeks now.

There is a growing sense among some investors, they said, that stocks have once again become overvalued after a fantastic 2003, in which the Nasdaq rose 50 percent and the Dow rose 25 percent.

"At the margins valuations are so extended and so optimistic that objective facts and earning power can't sustain that," said James Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer.

In that climate, news of the Spanish bombings hit hard, particularly after news reports indicated the deaths were not part of the country's long-running battle with Basque separatists.

"This is a market that doesn't want to be reminded of the terrorist threat," said Andrew Brooks, chief of equity trading for T. Rowe Price in Baltimore.

snip>
Until reports of the possible al Qaeda connection surfaced, the markets had basically moved sideways on the strength of good economic news from Washington. The Labor Department said new claims for unemployment benefits dropped last week by a seasonally adjusted 6,000, to 341,000, beating forecasts. And Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress that he expects employment to begin to grow.

That positive news leads Brooks and some other analysts to believe that the slide may be temporary. "I think the markets oversold. Corporate earnings are coming in and inflation is in check," he said. "I think the glass is half full."

But Grant said he believes the slide reflects more than a one-day reaction to bad news about terrorism. "It might be that the market was simply overdone," he said.

more...

[Beetwasher]

86. Well That Was Ugly, Again

n/t