STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday August 5

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday August 5, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 4

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 4, 2009

Dow... 9,320.19 +33.63 (+0.36%)
Nasdaq... 2,011.31 +2.70 (+0.13%)
S&P 500... 1,005.65 +3.02 (+0.30%)
Gold future... 969.70 +10.90 (+1.14%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.68 +0.05 (+1.49%)
30-Year Bond 4.46 +0.06 (+1.34%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Natural Gas - Down and Out and Unloved
BY FRANK BARBERA

Over the last few weeks, we have tried to shine a spotlight on some corners of the market --which perhaps, have been overlooked or ignored by investors who have once again trampled thru the doors in the mad dash for Tech stocks. Not that we have anything against Tech stocks per se, (although we would not hesitate to point out that Tech valuation multiples are expanding to lofty levels), but in their stampede toward Tech, new Tech investors at this time would seem to be throwing a bit of caution to the wind. How about a peek in some other direction, possibly where earnings are generally a lot more consistent, and where valuations now reside at near decade lows, rather than near decade highs? Impossible in this over-extended market? Well, actually, not at all. Take Natural Gas for example. It is derided and hated beyond all measure, to call it ‘unloved’ as we did in today’s title is probably putting it lightly. Of course, as a commodity investment, Natural Gas has been expelling some very poor results over the last 12 months, one could say, flatulent results, or that investing in Natural Gas has been one big ...well, you know what I mean.

Since peaking near $13.33 in early July 2008, the Great Credit Collapse has sparked a Natural Gas deflation to the tune of -71.26% with current prices near $3.83. For Natural Gas, these are in fact the lowest prices seen since December 2002, over six years ago. What’s more, going back over the last 15 years this is the second largest, most compact decline in Natural Gas on record. The two largest prior declines were seen from December 2005 ($14.47) to September 2006 ($4.57), a decline of –68.91%, and from January 2001 ($8.80) to January 2002 ($1.85), a decline of 78.97%. This fact alone makes a closer study of Natural Gas worth the time as a contrary investment play.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:15 ADP Employment Change Jul
Briefing.com -365K
Consensus -350K
Prior -473K

10:00 Factory Orders Jun
Briefing.com -0.5%
Consensus -0.8%
Prior 1.2%

10:00 ISM Services Jul
Briefing.com 48.5
Consensus 48.0
Prior 47.0

10:30 Crude Inventories 07/31
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior +5.15M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

20. AD{ (joke report) employment index down 371,000

U.S. ADP employment index down 371,000
8:15am Today



so how high will the market jump for these lies?

[UpInArms]

23. July ISM non-manufacturing falls to 46.4% - June factory orders rise 0.4%

U.S. July ISM non-manufacturing falls to 46.4%
10:01am Today

U.S. June factory orders rise 0.4%
10:00am Today

U.S. June core capital goods orders rise 2.6%
10:00am Today

U.S. June durable goods orders down 2.2%
10:00am Today

U.S. June factory orders ex-transport rise 2.3%
10:00am Today

U.S. June factory shipments rise 1.4%
10:00am Today

[UpInArms]

24. Petroleum Inventories Report

Crude stocks up 1.7 mln brls: EIA
10:31am Today

Gasoline supplies down 0.2 mln brls:EIA
10:31am Today

Distillate stocks down 1.1 mln brls: EIA
10:31am Today

[ozymandius]

3. Oil slips to near $71 amid mixed US economic news

Oil prices slipped to near $71 a barrel Wednesday as mixed economic news from the U.S. stalled a weeklong rally.

By midday in Europe, benchmark crude for September delivery was down 35 cents to $71.07 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Tuesday, the contract fell 16 cents to settle at $71.42.

Crude prices have jumped from below $63 a barrel last week on investor optimism the U.S. economy, the world's biggest oil consumer, is recovering from a severe recession.

On Tuesday, the Commerce Department said consumer spending rose 0.4 percent in June. But personal incomes dropped by 1.3 percent, the steepest slide in four years.

.....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for August delivery fell 1.92 cents to $2.0375 a gallon and heating oil dropped 0.88 cent to $1.8926. Natural gas for August delivery slid 2.1 cents to $3.98 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[UpInArms]

17. Oil jumps, in part due to weak dollar

Well, lookie here! someone finally bought a clue!

http://www.boston.com/business/markets/articles/2009/08/04/oil_jumps_in_part_due_to_weak_dollar/

COLUMBUS, Ohio - Oil and natural gas prices rose sharply yesterday on the weakening dollar and on new signs of life from manufacturers that suggest the recession might be loosening its grip.

Benchmark crude for September delivery rose 3 percent, or $2.13, to settle at $71.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the third straight day of substantial increases on the energy futures markets and the first time in a month crude traded above $70.

Retail gasoline prices rose overnight yet again.

Natural gas, a major source of power generation, spiked by more than 9 percent on a day when both China and the United States reported stronger manufacturing activity.

Crude has been rising for the past several weeks on the US dollar’s downward trend.

The dollar index reached its lowest point since September against the euro yesterday.

Money floods into equities markets when the dollar falls because products like crude are priced in the US currency. Oil can be used as a hedge against inflation, and it becomes cheaper when the dollar falls.

...more...

[ozymandius]

4. European markets higher on earns, volume light

LONDON – European stock markets rose modestly Wednesday after a batch of solid corporate earnings though trading remained light as many investors awaited key economic news towards the end of the week.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was up 10.88 points, or 0.2 percent, at 4,682.25, while Germany's DAX rose 4.49 points, or 0.1 percent, to 5,421.51. The CAC-40 in France was 19.78 points, or 0.6 percent, higher at 3,496.15.

Earnings, which have helped drive many of the world's markets up to 2009 highs over the last few weeks, helped Europe's main indexes push into positive territory despite earlier Asian losses.

.....

Earlier in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average closed down 122.48 points, or 1.2 percent, at 10,252.53 amid weakness in automakers after Toyota Motor Co., the world's biggest car company, reported its third straight quarterly loss previous day.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 301.66, or 1.5 percent, to 20,494.77 and South Korea's Kospi dropped 0.4 percent to 1,559.47. Elsewhere, China's Shanghai Composite Index retreated 1.2 percent, Australia's benchmark fell 1 percent and Singapore's index was off 1.9 percent. Markets in the Philippines were closed for the funeral of former President Corazon Aquino.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090805/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

5. Lloyds posts loss as bad debts hit 13 billion pounds

LONDON (Reuters) – Britain's Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L) sank to a 4 billion pounds ($6.8 billion) loss in the first half, battered by a surge in bad debts from its HBOS business, but the bank told investors it was through the worst.

Britain's biggest retail bank said on Wednesday its impairment losses for the six months to June jumped to 13.4 billion pounds, more than five times the 2.5 billion pounds a year ago and up from 12.4 billion in the previous six months.

But it said the impairments -- some 80 percent of which came from the business of beleaguered rival HBOS acquired in earlier this year -- peaked in the first half, reflecting its tough valuation of real estate assets badly hit in the credit crunch.

.....

..70-80 percent of the impairments would be included in a government-backed asset insurance plan, which aims to limit the bank's exposure to losses on bad loans. The bank is still in talks to finalize terms for the complex scheme, Daniels said.

Lloyds is 43 percent owned by the UK government after taxpayer cash was used to rescue the lender.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090805/bs_nm/us_lloyds_3

[ozymandius]

6. SEC moving toward banning flash orders

NEW YORK – The Securities and Exchange Commission is moving toward banning a trading practice that gives some brokerages a split-second advantage in buying or selling stocks.

SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro said in a statement Tuesday that the agency is working to create a rule to ban the trades known as flash orders.

Flash orders give certain members of exchanges including Nasdaq, Direct Edge and BATS the ability to buy and sell order information for milliseconds before that information is made public. High-speed computer software can take advantage of that brief period to allow those members to get better prices and profits.

.....

Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., a critic of the orders, said in a statement that Schapiro personally assured him the SEC would ban the practice. Last month, Schumer sent a letter to the SEC urging it to eliminate flash orders and said that if it didn't, he would write legislation to do so.

Banning flash orders is more about the perception of fairness than any practical change in trading, said Sang Lee, a managing partner at Aite Group. He noted flash orders only make up around 2 percent or 3 percent of total trading volume.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090804/ap_on_bi_ge/us_sec_flash_orders

[rfranklin]

7. How is Goldman Sachs going to make a profit?

They'll have to go on welfare....uh, yeah, they already are.

[Dr.Phool]

12. The old-fashioned way.

They'll steal it.

[Demeter]

10. He Should Write the Legislation, Too

with criminal penalties.

[Hugin]

21. Still no mention about how the "some brokerages" pay for the access to do HFT.

"... a trading practice that gives some brokerages a split-second advantage... " My understanding is that Goldman Sachs "some brokerage" pays a fee to, say... The NYSE to infect connect their sniffing tapeworm HFT software to the real time trading data.

Favoritism! Discrimination! Payola! Any way you care to look at it this is no more than a classic sting type criminal enterprise. The idea behind a sting scam was to set up a betting parlor devoted to horse races... The trick being, the operators of the parlor would intercept the real time radio broadcast of the races and delay revealing which horse had won the race to the players until the operators had placed their bets so that the operators were always the winners. It's a rig. Now, it lives on, on Wall Street.

Which in my view of things makes it an even more distasteful and unethical practice.

If the data were open for me to access it with my super-fast 286... In a democratic and even handed playing field. Well, that would be slightly different.

But, no... Access is restricted... Tight. Tighter than a 1930's Golf Course.

[ozymandius]

8. Run for the Hills: Fed Plans to Build on Sham Stress Tests as Basis for Regulation

As readers may recall, we and just about anyone who understood anything about financial firm supervision saw the stress tests as a complete and utter farce. The authorities had tea and cookies with the 19 banks and then talked about model outputs. The talks sometimes got heated, so were were supposed to take this as serious exercise. No one did what one normally does in an real examination, which is go in an inspect at an operational level. For instance, in a bank exam, the procedure is to sample loan files to look for irregularities. In a trading operation, you'd need to look at how positions were valued (among other things). None of that happened, nada.

And now that bad process is about to be institutionalized, at least if the Fed is to emerge as planned as he One Regulator To Rule Them All.

A snippet in a Bloomberg story gives only a indication of what is in store.

The Fed is apparently trying to counter the well deserved image that it is neither good at nor terribly interested in supervision. As part of its effort to secure its hoped-for position as The One Regulator To Rule Them All, it is now trying to prove its chops as a regulator. Since it clearly has none, next best is to try to persuade outsiders that it could develop one.

So here is the pitch:

The Federal Reserve plans to strengthen its examinations of banks’ lending practices and financial health with new teams composed of experts in everything from law to economics and markets.

Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo outlined the step in testimony to a Senate Banking Committee hearing in Washington today. The overhaul, which would make reviews more uniform across the banking system, builds on the stress tests the central bank completed on the biggest 19 banks in May.

Oh boy, this sound bad. First, notice what is on and not on the list? I would not have economists as bank examiners or supervisors. This is the Fed's culture writ large. Since the place is run by monetary economists, they assume that economists have insight into every conceivable problem. By contrast, if you look at a Wall Street firm, economists only do the sort of thing you'd expect that economists might have an advantage in doing....economic forecasts or in client facing roles where being a PhD economist might add cred. Notice the absence of folks like criminologists, accountants, and most important, former industry practioners. And the fact they want to build on the shambolic stress tests is truly alarming. That is telegraphiing that the Fed continues not to have its heart in being a regulator.

more here...

[Demeter]

11. It's Worse Than That

This plan shows that the Fed is ignorant, obtuse, incredibly arrogant, stubborn, and doing a Sarah Palin: They aren't qualified for the job. They wouldn't know qualified if it bit them. They are going to throw temper tantrums, meanwhile ignoring the job they have already, and deriding anyone with experience for not having a PhD.

[Hugin]

22. So the Banks get 'single payer'?

And we're stuck with Day Old Same Ol' Same Ol' Reheated Status-Quo.

Pretty typical in our... "Of the Banks, For the Banks" system.

[Hawkowl]

26. You are on a roll today

First "The Sting" analogy and now single payer for the banks! ROFL! Keep it up!

[Hugin]

27. Since I posted that comparison, I've learned the name for the scam is "Front Running".

Courtesy of : Karl Denninger.

Wednesday, August 5. 2009

"Is This Statistically Reasonable? (GS)"

Remember what was said about Madoff when people started looking at his operation?

There were only two possible explanations for the firm's apparently never-losing trading: They were either front-running or cheating in some other fashion, or the entire thing was a gigantic ponzi scheme.

We later learned that #2 was the case.

But is there an example of #1 somewhere? Hmmmm....

Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. made more than $100 million in trading revenue on a record 46 separate days during the second quarter, or 71 percent of the time, breaking the previous high of 34 days in the prior three months.

Trading losses occurred on two days during the months of April, May and June, down from eight in the first quarter, the New York-based bank said today in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The company made at least $50 million on 58 of the 65 trading days during the quarter, or 89 percent of the time.

Just two days of losses in the entire quarter?

There are a lot of very good traders in the world, but nobody has that sort of record on any sort of consistent basis unless they've managed to rig the game.

You can be "the smartest guys in the room" but nearly-perfect records at the poker table are almost always an indication that someone has managed to figure out a way to peek at the other side's hole cards.

Oh, and they're gambling (or cheating?) with your money too - not their own:

Banks such as Goldman Sachs are benefiting from lower borrowing costs after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. in October started guaranteeing bank debt issues that mature within three years. Goldman Sachs said in today’s filing it had $25.1 billion of debt guaranteed by the FDIC under the agency’s Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program. The bank sold about $30 billion of the FDIC-backed securities between November and March, according to company filings.

Is this an example of "heads we win, tails you lose, and we're peeking at your hole cards"?

Inquiring minds want to know."

______________________________________________________________________________________________

Be sure to check this out and all of Karl's ponderings... http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

[Hawkowl]

29. Indeed

I just posted a few minutes after you about the Goldfellas front running scheme as reported by Zero Hedge. Some people are speculating that good old Goldfellas know they are breaking the law, but that they've done a cost benefit analysis that basically says if they don't raise the money they are bankrupt. However, if they are eventually caught, they'll just pay a relatively low fine of a few hundred million dollars.

I believe this is probably a true scenario. Remember the reason Goldfellas was allowed to become a bank holding company in record time was to allow them the life preserver of the Fed's easy credit. It probably wasn't enough (that should be GS motto: "It's never enough!").

The only way to change the cost benefit analysis is to impose Madoff-like prison sentences on these bastards.

[Hugin]

33. I have one small correction to my previous post, tho.

Where I said, "But, no... Access is restricted... Tight. Tighter than a 1930's Golf Course."

The meaning would have been more clear if I had said... "But, no... Access is restricted... Tight. Tighter than a 1930's Golf Club Membership." Back when, y'know... The riff-raff like Women, All Minorities and people not named "Todd" or "Cliff" were barred from even entering the course (not even as groundskeepers).

[ozymandius]

9. Resource: Failed Bank List with Enforcement Documents

ProPublica has a great table of failed banks with sortable columns by state, date and Federal regulator.

The database also includes links to public enforcement documents with the dates the documents were issued (Cease and Desist orders, Prompt Corrective Action directives, etc.).

.....

A Federal Reserve Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) directive seems to have a very short leash. As an example BankFirst in South Dakota received a PCA directive on June 15th and was seized on July 17th.

If you go to the Federal Reserve enforcement list, you will see Written Agreements and Prompt Corrective Actions popping up fairly frequently. Here is one from yesterday:

The Federal Reserve Board on Monday announced the issuance of a Prompt Corrective Action Directive against Warren Bank, Warren, Michigan, a state chartered member bank. (more...)

That makes Warren a BFF candidate in about a month. Also be on the lookout for Bank of Elmwood, Racine, Wisconsin (PCA on July 23rd).

Note: the ProPublica list may be missing some enforcement documents. I found a Prompt Corrective Action for Community Bank of West Georgia on May 21st that isn't included - and the bank was seized a month later.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/resource-failed-bank-list-with.html

[Demeter]

14. Thanks, Ozy! I can use this kind of information.

and good morning!

[ozymandius]

18. Good morning.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

That is handy, I agree. This is a slow news day. I've found nothing much beyond analysis of past days' news and the news about overseas markets. Oh well...

[Demeter]

13. The Role of an Engineer, As Seen By Dilbert

http://dilbert.com/dyn_file/str_strip/63345/gif/strip.print/

[MARALE]

25. As an Engineer, this hits to close to home

I have also been a sales engineer and there is some engineers you could allow to talk to the customers and others that you definitely could not. To frank and honest, not knowing how to slide over the bad details, too much details that the customer did not need, and general not knowing how to communicate very well were some of the reasons that they are not allowed to directly contact the customer.

[Demeter]

31. Because the Truth Hurts (Sales)

Been there, done that. Want to see my circular slide rule? The LED screen calculator?

[Festivito]

15. Debt: 08/03/2009 11,648,548,144,569.76 (DOWN 20,703,204,934.89) (Down 5B.)

(Debt down 5, good; FICA down 15, not so good -- it's how much government owes us, the working people, someday when we retire.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,330,489,761,535.11 + 4,318,058,383,034.65
DOWN 5,083,538,887.00 + DOWN 15,619,666,047.89

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.77, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,012,742 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,941.58.
A family of three owes $113,824.74. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 7,161,821,576.54.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,252,002,489.46.
The average for the last 31 days would be 5,082,583,054.32.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 134 reports in 195 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.26B$ per report, -0.09B$/day so far.
There were 209 reports in 307 days of FY2009 averaging 7.77B$ per report, 5.29B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,266 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 18.3T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/03/2009 11,648,548,144,569.76 BHO (UP 1,021,671,095,656.68 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,623,823,247,657.30 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/14/2009 +000,244,233,965.61 ------------********
07/15/2009 +057,721,794,648.52 ------------**********
07/16/2009 +016,136,405,834.08 ------------**********
07/17/2009 +000,062,427,388.38 ------------*******
07/20/2009 +000,171,809,229.69 ------------******** Mon
07/21/2009 -000,321,987,025.18 ---
07/22/2009 +000,261,059,305.61 ------------********
07/23/2009 +010,040,233,982.08 ------------**********
07/24/2009 -000,124,358,216.07 ---
07/27/2009 +000,077,777,899.40 ------------******* Mon
07/28/2009 +000,420,333,618.55 ------------********
07/29/2009 +000,733,026,310.02 ------------********
07/30/2009 -026,031,384,097.19 -
07/31/2009 +095,534,108,940.65 ------------**********
08/03/2009 -005,083,538,887.00 -- Mon

149,841,942,897.15 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,983,916,341,310.69 in last 319 days.
That's 1,984B$ in 319 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 195% of that highest year ever only in 319 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 319 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3999502&mesg_id=3999513

[Festivito]

35. Debt: 08/04/2009 11,659,644,290,011.89 (UP 11,096,145,442.13) (Down .05B.)

(Debt down .056B while FICA side goes up 11B.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,330,433,379,272.34 + 4,329,210,910,739.55
DOWN 56,382,262.77 + UP 11,152,527,704.90

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.77, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,019,942 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,976.83.
A family of three owes $113,930.49. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 7,332,879,135.91.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,621,874,004.20.
The average for the last 32 days would be 5,270,506,878.94.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 135 reports in 196 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.24B$ per report, -0.07B$/day so far.
There were 210 reports in 308 days of FY2009 averaging 7.79B$ per report, 5.31B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,265 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 18.4T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/04/2009 11,659,644,290,011.89 BHO (UP 1,032,767,241,098.81 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,634,919,393,099.40 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/15/2009 +057,721,794,648.52 ------------**********
07/16/2009 +016,136,405,834.08 ------------**********
07/17/2009 +000,062,427,388.38 ------------*******
07/20/2009 +000,171,809,229.69 ------------******** Mon
07/21/2009 -000,321,987,025.18 ---
07/22/2009 +000,261,059,305.61 ------------********
07/23/2009 +010,040,233,982.08 ------------**********
07/24/2009 -000,124,358,216.07 ---
07/27/2009 +000,077,777,899.40 ------------******* Mon
07/28/2009 +000,420,333,618.55 ------------********
07/29/2009 +000,733,026,310.02 ------------********
07/30/2009 -026,031,384,097.19 -
07/31/2009 +095,534,108,940.65 ------------**********
08/03/2009 -005,083,538,887.00 -- Mon
08/04/2009 -000,056,382,262.77 ----

149,541,326,668.77 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,995,012,486,752.82 in last 320 days.
That's 1,995B$ in 320 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 196% of that highest year ever only in 320 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 320 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4001116&mesg_id=4001162

[UpInArms]

16. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 77.587 Change -0.131 (-0.17%)

Pound Finds Support As Manufacturing and Service Sectors Show Improvement

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_brief/Dollar_Coming_Under_Pressure1249467227264.html

The pound jumped 50 pips following fundamental data releases that showed the manufacturing and service sectors in the U.K. stabilizing. The PMI service index rose to 53.2 from 51.6 which was the highest since August 2008 marking the third straight month in expansion territory. U.K. industrial production surpassed estimates of a flat reading for June with a 0.5% improvement which helped erase the -0.7% decline from the month prior. A 0.4% increase in manufacturing led to the broader improvement, which also saw 1.1% increases in mining and oil activity on the back of increasing demand for commodities.

The pound has continued to trade in a tight range following it recent 600 pip rally as risk appetite has started to abate as concerns grow that current valuations may have surpassed future profits. The BoE rate decision looming on Thursday has also limited volatility as the central bank has foreshadowed a decision on its quantitative easing program following the policy meeting. Gilt traders are predicting that the central bank will bring an end to its asset purchase program which could start to provide cable support as we get closer to the MPC meeting. A hawkish central bank and an official end to the additional measures could lead to continued support for the pound. A test of 1.7326-50.0% Fibo of 2.1159-1.3504 still appears likely but a dovish BoE could derail bullish momentum.

The euro has traded in a tight range between 1.4370 and 1.4400 as it continues to take its cue form equity markets which have taken a breather following their recent rally. A drop in Euro-Zone retail sales of 0.2% versus expectations of a 0.3% gain failed to spark any significant reaction. However, the weak demand figures will add to prevailing concerns over whether a global recovery is sustainable without an increase in consumer consumption. The level of unemployment remains high and rising in most developed nations and unless markets see a peak, traders will remain cautious. Therefore, with the single currency’s current correlation to risk sentiment upside potential will be limited without improving employment figures which makes Friday’s U.S. employment report critical for future price direction.

The dollar after firming during Asian hours has started to see its support wane with risk appetite slightly picking up in European markets on improving fundamental data and positive corporate earnings. We could see greenback weakness continue in the US session as the economic docket is filled with releases that are expected to point toward the U.S. economy stabilizing. The ADP private employment report is forecasted to show a job loss of 335K following 473K in June. The report is a leading indicator for Friday’s Non-farm payrolls and typically creates short-term volatility. Additionally, the ISM Non-manufacturing index measures the service sector which accounts for 70% of U.S. GDP and is expected to improve to 48 from 47. However, a print above 50 signaling expansion could reignite equity bulls and sink the dollar.

...more...

no one wants to talk about the dollar -

maybe it they all ignore it, it will just go away?

ewwww!

[hamerfan]

19. The Adam Smith/Paul Krugman Show!

Forgive me if these have been posted before.
A technology site I like to check out:

http://www.cringely.com/

has posted around 12 short (1:00 to 3:00 long each) videos of an event held in Princeton NJ on July 8, 2009 for the local Common Cause chapter. There is some pretty good stuff on them. Krugman really seems to have it down.
Anyway, the first two entries on the above web site has all the videos embedded.
Robert Cringely had an occasional series on PBS dealing with technology. He's good, too.
hamerfan

[Hawkowl]

28. Goldfellas has unprecedented Q2 trading record

"Goldman's 42 $100MM+ Trading Days In Q2 - An Absolute, Unprecedented Record; Just Two Days Of Trading Losses

Goldman reported their $100MM+ trading days. It is a stunner: Goldman made over $100 million on 46 out of the 65 total trading days in Q2, 70% of total. Goldman made over $50 million on 58 of the 65 total trading days in Q2, 89.2% of total."

Goldfellas only had TWO losing days in the second quarter! Don't tell me that "flash trading" aka front running, doesn't have anything to do with their thievery. As Hugin, mentions in an above post, it is just like in the movie "The Sting", where the horse betting radio broadcast is intercepted, the results determined, then delayed so the suckers can be fleeced, and then rebroadcast. That is what flash trading is about, except in milliseconds.



http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldmans-42-100mm-trading-days-q2-absolute-unprecedented-record-just-two-days-trading-losses

[mullard12ax7]

30. The "key psychological level of 1000 on the S&P" isn't key to anything

The financial markets have turned into nothing but pure sloganeering, sales talk, one lame-ass quip after the other. What little trust there ever was in financial reporting is gone. Charlie Rose had a guy named Shiller on the other night and he mentioned the 1930s and how all the trust was blown then too and how it affected the economy's steadfast inability to recover. Without trust in the system, nobody takes risks and the entire system stagnates for years.

[DemReadingDU]

32. TAE: Does oil have an effect on the financial crisis?

8/5/09
Ilargi: There are still a lot of people out there who keep on insisting that oil has had, will have, or is already having, a substantial effect on the financial crisis, but who wouldn't want to make a bet on whether oil will be $5 or $500 a barrel 1 year from now, or 2 years. Nor would they be able to spell out what effect which price would have on the economy. For some reason this makes me think of an unrelated Susan Ertz quote:


Millions long for immortality who don't know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon.


It may be unrelated, but millions also blame oil for the credit crisis who wouldn't recognize that crisis if it hit them squarely in their pocketbooks. Or if it did, they'd just bitch louder at the pump.

My take is that while many have a more or less working mental model of the limits inherent in the oil industry, they have a ways to go in the understanding of the financial crisis. The center of the world is not made of oil. Nor is it made of money, for that matter. The center of the world is a teeming stew of molten greed and stupidity. And it so happens we have been easily more than greedy and stupid enough to run out of money way before we'll ever get a chance to run out of oil.

Oil today, purely from a supply/demand picture, is overpriced by 100-200%, and maybe even more. Still, if it were $20 a barrel, would a substantially larger number of homeowners get to stay in their homes? Would job losses go down big-league? Would debts be paid off more or faster? Would Goldman Sachs start refusing taxpayer money?

According to the EIA, in 2008 U.S. Motor Gasoline Consumption was under 9 million barrel per day. it's way less now, but let’s keep the 9 bpd number. At $70 per barrel, the cost is some $225 billion per year, or about $450 billion at the pump, $3 per gallon, 42 gallons a barrel.

What do you think the average American spends on gas for their vehicles per year? How about $1500, for every man, woman and child? That coincidentally adds up to maybe $450 billion. So if you'd halve the gas price, what would the effect on the economy be? Well, you'd save, but less than $225 billion.

That's only slightly more than what we've spent so far just to 'save' AIG alone. It's also no more than about 30% of the Obama stimulus plan. It's less than 2% of the total estimated $13.8 trillion committed in taxpayer Wall Street 'assistance'. And it's maybe 0.75% of what estimates put total US loss of wealth at to date, some $30 trillion.

If you want to focus on oil in the financial crisis, those are a few of your numbers to work with. Finance versus oil. And sure, you're right, oil is not just the gas in your car, it's everywhere around you. But everywhere around you is shrinking, and there's no evidence that that has anything at all to do with prices or production, no matter whether one or both go up or down. Oil demand is plummeting, even as prices have long come down from their 2008 high. The credit crisis needs no help in changing what you can believe in, thank you very much.

The magnitude of the losses is simply too overwhelming to digest, I think. The $13.8 trillion that's been committed to rescue banks that are beyond rescue represent some $45.000 per capita, including toddlers, grannies and everyone else. And that comes on top of all the losses on the ground, in tax revenues for all levels of government, in property prices, in job losses, foreclosures, and all the other issues where "value" is being lost. Some losses are obvious, just take a look at tent cities, jobless claims and boarded up homes. But most are still hidden, and all the recovery talk depends on the fact that they remain so. Which will not happen.

The hidden damage will be exposed to daylight as we go forward. Scores of states and counties and cities that have managed to hang on until now, cutting every bit of fat they could while hanging on to their people, have nothing left to cut but the same people. Tens of thousands of companies that still employ millions of people that are no longer truly contributing to much of anything in a productive sense will have to adjust their dreams of better days to what their bottom line tells them. Those people will have to go as well. Unemployment? You ain't seen nothing yet. 15% U3 is a low estimate for 2010. Go back to Sunday morning’s Three Stooges interviews, they all say more jobs will keep being lost into the second half of next year.

And where's the alleged connection here with oil prices? Many people will argue that it's at the pump that oil becomes a real issue, and they DO notice the price changes. But it’s in the increasing job losses, the foreclosures and the soon to be raised tax bills that they will feel what the financial crisis means. And where they really hurt, much more than at any gas station. A $30 trillion loss of wealth is $100.000 per capita, since the crisis started. It’ll take you years to put that sort of money into your tank. So many years, in fact, that we may indeed run out of oil before you ever get close.

For now, going into this fall and further into next year and beyond, the one tale that matters far more than anything else for "ordinary people" is that of unwinding and disappearing credit, accumulated debt deteriorating services, vanishing jobs and boarded up homes. The cost of oil is but a bit player on that stage.

related articles followed by the comments section...
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2009/08/august-5-2009-millions-long-for.html

[Hugin]

34. Eh, I'm not sure I completely agree with this...

If you don't have a job you don't pay taxes or especially higher taxes. But, you do need gasoline and other fundamental staples.

Now, I do agree the $13 Trillion (some say $25 Trillion) thrown at the Banks to keep them from feeling the hit in their standard of living kind of makes the gasoline price fluctuations we've been seeing fade back into the noise. But, the same thing happens when you compare someone who makes $1 Million a year to someone who makes $100 a year. To that Hundredaire a $0.02 price increase in a gallon of gas used to go to work at a minimum wage job means the difference between feeding the kids or not feeding the kids. Which is an important decision. But, sadly in our current bottom-heavy poverty, top-heavy money social structure it's a decision that's made with a far higher frequency than wondering where the TARP went. It's a big issue to a very large segment of the American Population... If they say fuel and energy costs caused them the most trouble, I'm inclined to go along with them.

[Zenlitened]

36. August bulletin of Nat'l. Assoc. of Credit Men optimistic

"August bulletin of Nat'l. Assoc. of Credit Men optimistic; "We have managed to get through the storm with no conspicuous failures and no serious damage to our machinery of production and distribution." Now sees business skies clearing, sees gradual but sustainable recovery."

News From 1930