STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday October 24

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday October 24, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 88
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2831 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2556 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2847
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those prescient of the Dow's precipitous return of Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 23, 2008

Dow... 8,691.25 +172.04 (+2.02%)
Nasdaq... 1,603.91 -11.84 (-0.73%)
S&P 500... 908.11 +11.33 (+1.26%)
Gold future... 714.70 -20.50 (-2.79%)
30-Year Bond 3.97% -0.12 (-2.91%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.53% -0.08 (-2.32%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Well, this is hinky distinction for this date.

October 24th

[Buttercup McToots]

26. I AM SCARED....

and watching CNBC....so are they...:scared:

[AnneD]

80. Ozy....

Isn't this the date that you and I picked for the first SWT pool-what with us being sentimental history buffs and all?
A good day is when you get a 2 minute warning that the shit is about to hit the fan and you have time to DUCK.

[ozymandius]

88. I bet on the last quadruple witching day.

That was in September.... the 24th I think.

[AnneD]

130. It was my back up date.....

Talking Dog and Neshanic also selected the date. I did it for historical reasons. Talking Dog-and Neshanic.....why did you select the date? The same-history?

[dixiegrrrrl]

124. Good link..those headlines sound so....today.

[truthisfreedom]

2. I've got a weird feeling about today.

And I've never owned a single stock in my life.

[ozymandius]

5. Today's date is burned into our psyche.

See post #1.

[truthisfreedom]

23. I'm not sure I've seen the futures looking this bleak at this time of the morning. -550.

Bleak. Weird. And both of those words look misspelled at the moment, but they're not.

[depakid]

24. It occurred to me not long back that many if not most seem to want

the most negative things to happen to people all over the world- not grapsing how it will affect them, too. It's almost as if people feed off the negativity.

If there's a difference between 1929 and today that stands out- that would be it.

Fast communication, skewed emotions and self-fulfilling prophesies- without much regard to who ends up in the soup lines- or even, what soup lines in reality were- and what they reflected.

This isn't going to be a popular post, but what some of the things I've read on DU over the last 6 weeks or so remind me of is nothing so much as the far right's railing against "socialism."

It's like cheerleading for Rome to burn, without realizing that indoor plumbing won't come back into vogue again for 15 Centuries.

It's a sad thing to see. One would hope that most people are reading this and other threads to try to gain some understanding of what's been going on- and how on November 5th, we're going to try to wake up and try to sort things out properly again- along wih the rest of the world.

[ozymandius]

27. We're not sadists here.

While an occasional troll will wander onto the thread calling for destruction and doom, the overarching sentiment here has been quite different.

The majority of voices here has been calling for sanity and fair value pricing to return to the markets. Greenscam's easy money policies were condemned here because insight through some knowledge of history foretold what was to come. SMW consensus wanted the easy money policies to stop. Export of jobs in exchange for easy debt terms creates its own sticky end. We've railed about that too.

So where basic logic has been ignored by the 'old powdered wigs' in Washington and on Wall Street - the game had to end sometime. Our wish is that it would end without widespread destruction. Then we can set about re-writing the laws that would have prevented this calamity, coupled with rebuilding a robust enforcement system to see that it's done.

We face people every day who have been touched by this financial disaster. Some of them are us who post here every day. It gives no comfort to see people suffer through no fault of their own.

If this has happened to you then my heart weighs heavily for you. I would not wish any of these troubles of job loss, no health insurance, homelessness, helplessness upon anyone.

[depakid]

49. Sadism wasn't the point

Nor is self interest.

Some people gain relatively from weird angles, like currency exchange rates. Almost embarrassingly so.

Others end up hurting, through no fault of their own.

Fair value pricing for equities and assets like homes and commercial properties are of course everyone wants to see- but that's not what we get from mob mentality. The good, the fair and the decent burns right along with the rest of the city. The blameless go down with the blameworthy.

Credit markets affect so many companies worldwide- which once again, people don't grasp, until such a point when their own payrolls are affected. Then they wonder why they cheered burning on. This phenomena isn't limited to freepers.

I know people don't have long memories on message boards- and don't remember who of us were most disgusted with Greenspan, and the Ayn Randians for years- anymore than they remember who the goldbugs were. They were both pretty much wrong; we're in unknown territory.

What I tell my fiancee in Oz is that the world's going through convulsions- part and parcel to 25+ years of Republican fiscal, trade and regulatory policies (forget monetary policy for the moment) -that have infected the world's financial system(s) like a virus.

Hate to get all big picture and metaphorical- but that's a good a way to frame it as any.

Trouble wi rh some of the threads and posts is that many people who find outlets for anger in "powdered wigs" in Washington- or "fat cats" on Wallstreet" -who richly deserve comeuppance, don't realize that their own family, friends and neighbors are connected in complex ways to their activities. As is said about public health spending (investment) -sickness affects rich and poor alike, it knocks on ever ynes' door. If we read Bocaccio's Decameron or Poe's short story The Masque of the Red Death, we can see how that works

Another thing that stands out is how "Americanocentric" people tend to be. Yes, the US is still the pre-eminent economic driver and military power, but not everything that happens to Americans can be translated or transposed to the rest of the world, yet Americans act as if every outrage perpetrated by domestic policies should be über important to everyone- to the extent that we'll fuck anyone over to change whatever injustice has been done to us, by us.

Fact is, we're only 300 million, who feel an outsized sense of entitlement- and react with an oversized sense of outrage when things "don't go our way."

I'd like very much to see that tendency change. So would damn near everyone else around the world. And it will.

But in the meantime, let's keep our wits about us- and remember that we do have to wake up from this nightmare on November 5th, hopefully with a bit more that "I told you so's"

[closeupready]

50. I personally know two people who have lost hundreds of thousands. Probably most of us do,

even if they won't tell us that.

To suggest that sounding the alarm or warning of dangers is wishing bad on ourselves is, imho, complete bullshit. Ignoring the warning signs is EXACTLY why we are at this place and time where our economy is nosediving.

[depakid]

57. There's a difference between sounding alarms and revelling in destruction

and feeding panic.

The latter is complete and self destructive bullshit, don't you think?

[closeupready]

70. What does "feeding panic" mean, though? That is such an ambiguous term, could mean anything.

??

[tama]

77. Feeding panic:

Cassandra: The Achaeans are going to sack Troy!
Troyans: Put a corck on it and stop feeding panic!

[Lucky Luciano]

64. I know people who have lost multiple millions

In fact, I wam a trader that got fired yesterday - I didn't lose any money....but the made men who did lost money for the bank are still there! That said, those Made men have each lost over $10MM in their personal accounts (Mostly because they are very long restricted company stock from prior year bonuses) and they are levered, so they are more crushed than I am. I have some leads for a job, but this is ugly.

As a technical trade while we are limit down....I would put in a bid for S&P futures 3% below where the SPY is trading as that will be hte proxy for futures while they are not trading. There is a good chance that at 9:30 it spikes down to that level and rebounds 2% from there - you should exit the position immediately after the spike up - because it is likely to go back down afterwards. I would do that if I were at work today!

Similar thing worked well when the market was limit-up the day that the short sale ban on financials happened. Market spiked immediately to 1291 (2% above the limit) and sold off immediately to a more sensible level.

[TheWatcher]

59. "Thank God It Passed."

:eyes:

[tama]

28. As the guy said

"Forgive them for they do not know what they are doing". This does not mean those who knew this would happened and have been giving their Cassandra-warnings that nobody listened, it means those who blinded by greed did not listen to warnings.

Yes, human population peaks this century and the drop is more likely hard and harder than softy soft. Obama won't change a thing, he's part of the system of greed and the system of greed - "civilization" - is now finally collapsing.

The system and those depending on cannot be helped to keep their ways, however much one would like to be able to do so. The system is hurting Mother Nature too much. Only way is to repent and amend our ways. To start living in balance, as participating in nature and respecting all life instead of trying to control nature in our infinite hubris of alianation.

By all means, let's try out global socialist state, to share equally what little is left attempting a softer landing, if that is what human civilization really wants and is ready to do. But it seems that greed and Mammon are still the rulers, only gods that people listen to. The meek shall inherit the Earth.

[Joe Chi Minh]

42. In a future world, concern for the least worldly-wise, the poor, will be the

first priority of governments, worldwide - not the last.

FDR touched on that kind of principle when initiating his New Deal. But this time, I think we may all have to go down on our kness each morning and say the Our Father - believers and atheists, alike.

[tama]

51. What governements?

All the bailout promises given everywhere sum up to one thing: governements pledging modern states to go down with their banks - including and especially central banks. The suicidal mania is not stopping, it is escalating. The train has allready hit the wall at warp speed but they still keep accelerating.

[Joe Chi Minh]

52. Well.... maybe eventual real, "grown-up" governments. But we sure

have had massively inept and crooked misgovernments these few decades, at the very least.

[tama]

56. Maybe

we should stop being governed - by any and all representative system of systemic corruption - and start taking responsibility ourselves. And yes, I'm kidding. It's not a "maybe", it's unavoidable.

[Tansy_Gold]

98. but if you go far enough to the left, you meet yourself coming back

on the right.

The anarchists and the shruggers have a lot in common.



We are social creatures and ultimately we must -- MUST -- depend on each other and form communities for our own survival. How we live in those communities is the story always being rewritten. Sometimes it is ATLAS SHRUGGED. Sometimes it is LORD OF THE FLIES or VALLEY OF THE DOLLS ot THE STAND or ROBINSON CRUSOE.

If some of us here on SMW appear to be cheering the collapse, even waiting in hopeful anticipation as a particularly dark day begins to dawn, it is because we see what lies beyond. We know, with the confidence only those who still have hope can experience, that the barriers to the better world must first be broken down. We alone are unable to tear them down, and so we cheer their destruction, not for the pain that some will bear but for the release and relief so many will ultimately enjoy.

Many of those who will hurt if/when there is a collapse also have the means to cushion their own fall. They whine and beg others to prop them up, to bail them out. They forget that there are so many who have been hurting so bad for so long. Their pain and their poverty and their loss and their despair not only are CAUSED BY the luxury others enjoy, but that luxury can only be maintained by that self same pain and poverty and loss and despair.

I feel no sympathy for the lawyer father of an acquaintance. He lost $360,000 last month on his stock portfolio. But the apartment buildings he owns continue to bring in cash money. His law practice continues to bring in cash money. He still drives a brand new Lexus convertible and keeps three other cars and a $500,000 RV in his garage. He has not yet had to sell his grandmother's jewelry to put food on the table. He has not yet given up his summer home in Colorado, his "retreat" in New Mexico, or the old family homestead in Wisconsin that sits shuttered and idle and empty except for the couple weeks a year he goes fishing with friends. He has not given up his and his wife's long week-ends to New York to see a couple of plays.

You say this is not an ordinary American and I should worry more about the secretaries and janitors and clerks and you're right, because I do. But propping up an unsustainable system that is killing those "ordinary Americans" -- along with ordinary people in Mexico and France and Japan and Zimbabwe and Brazil and Afghanistan and Norway and Morocco and China and Australia and Thailand and Uzbekistan and Sri Lanka and Albania and Portugal and Finland and Uruguay -- by inches is not the way to their physical salvation.

There is no way to make this a painless collapse. It is the nature of collapses that some will be hurt. I am hurting now. The details are irrelevant. But like a Russian peasant in 1917 or a sans culottes in 1789, I just can't muster a whole lot of sympathy for those who are going to lose all their wonderful luxuries.

Did any of you happen to catch the clip of McCain in 2000 or so explaining to the poor little doctor's daughter why her daddy ought to pay a little more in taxes than, say, Joe the Plumber? What a little greedy twit she was! She's probably not worrying today where her next meal will come from or if she can keep the electric company's turn-off guys at bay for another month. She probably doesn't put the key in the ignition and say a prayer to a non-existent deity that the battery has survived another day.

To those who still have good jobs, good enough to put a little aside either in the form of savings or stocking up on the non-perishable necessities, I say do it. But if you have a good job or other comfortable income and you DON'T back off the profligate lifestyle that has to be sustained by the blood, sweat, and tears of others, then fuck you merrily to hell.


Tansy Gold

[Hugin]

103. May I suggest...

A 'Post-it' note on your monitor to remind you to place posts such as this in your Journal?

:)

I must say this quickly, as... On heavy trading days. My bandwidth goes to zilch and I'm not always here to
remind you lately.

[dweller]

121. 2nd 'd

great post

dp

[llmart]

104. Wow!

My sentiments exactly. I live one county over from one of the wealthiest counties in the country, if not the wealthiest. I observe the people in the stores there and it amazes me that they don't seem to have any worries about the collapsing economy and I can't help but think, "I hope you people start feeling the hurt like the majority of people are." Am I callous? Maybe, but I quite frankly don't care what you call it. There are high school kids who flock to the coffee shops on their lunch break and pull out their blackberrys and I-pods and money for expensive lunches, most of which they leave on the table or throw away in the trash. Do you think for one minute that those teenagers are out earning that money? They all have cars. What the hell ever happened to taking the school bus to school and staying at the school and eating in the cafeteria or bringing their lunches?

This is only one small anecdote but I can duplicate it many other ways. We have become a nation of people with a sense of entitlement and that does need to stop.

[Joe Chi Minh]

119. ... and they're the very ones how prompt their very own corporate media to

peddle the line that it is the poor who have this parasitic sense of entitlement (implicitly without a sense of duty).

Many duties are also rights, now turned into privileges - employment being one of them, the very people who presume to allocate such "privileges" being the ones who whine at those they deny the opportunity to work. Moreover, those whose "good offices" have led to the employment of those in work, have ensured that their incomes have been steadily eroding for more than a decade. Well.... you wouldn't want an index-linked living wage that made the country uncompetitive, and might even lead to a recession, would you?

[tama]

126. A vicuous circle

can be revealed to be a virtuous spiral - a slinky toy! - when looked from another dimension.

Confessed, there is a place in my anarchist heart for redneck rurals - especially long haired country boys (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bs4y5si8DGs) who have not lost all connection with nature. Because heart is the place where the nature is centered. Amish are also and especially mighty OK. Regardless of which wing of the Imperialistic Party of America they and other rurals vote. Or don't.

I'm not interested in globalized cultural wars in the universalist spirit of "one size fits all". Difference as such is beautifull and let the one without sin throw the first stone. What I'm interested in is living and letting live, preferably in small sustainable basically self-sufficient communities which for all I care can live the way they like and prefere, as long as they don't bother others too much and don't endanger their life. How my tribal community lives, according to which ethics-customs, is my responsibility.

Give the financial class specumulators and other capitalist pigs island of their own (Long Island will do ;)), just keep them there playing their ego games of greediest wins and never let them cross the waters. I suspect they would not survive long (not much fertile soil there...) but hey, everybody deserves a chance.

[Raksha]

132. Amazing post--definitely put that in your journal!

It's as though you've been reading my mind, and said what I've been thinking/feeling better than I could say it myself. I especially relate to this:

If some of us here on SMW appear to be cheering the collapse, even waiting in hopeful anticipation as a particularly dark day begins to dawn, it is because we see what lies beyond. We know, with the confidence only those who still have hope can experience, that the barriers to the better world must first be broken down. We alone are unable to tear them down, and so we cheer their destruction, not for the pain that some will bear but for the release and relief so many will ultimately enjoy.

The old system HAS to die, to fall apart, before anything really new can be born. There is no other way. What some see as cheering on the death of the old system, with all the pain that will inevitably cause to so many, is really no such thing. We are actually cheering the rebirth we see just over the horizon.

[depakid]

55. This is exactly the sort of deal that makes reasonable people turn away

My guess is that, good intentions aside- you (like the Repulbicans who rail about it) don't know what socialism is, how it works where it exists- nor have much an idea how it would "look" on some "worldwide" basis.

Yet you use an economic crisis, where real people are suffering- to try to further some whack theory that you've never thought out on more than a high school level.

[tama]

66. FIY

My Father was a high ranking "Stalinist", I've been a card carrying member of a Trotskyite revolutionary socialist party, so I have pretty good insider's grasp on what socialism is, how it works and where it exists.

The "whack theory" is merely what most learned scholars of Club of Rome have been saying for decades. The profound criticism of Euro-American hegemonism and civilization itself is something that I've been discussing with and getting influenced by doctors of philosophy, among others. As you stand corrected in your poor ad hominem attempt, why not try some consistent thinking yourself, starting out from most basic axioms (e.g. "all life as such is beautifull"), trying to be a real human yourself instead of just smelling bad and expecting others to do everything for you so you could keep on hugging to your petty greed.

[depakid]

72. Learned scholars of "the Club of Rome"

were and are interested in ecological economics- limts to growth, not worldwide socialism.

Completely different paradigm and sets of concepts.

[tama]

74. There is a link

but no need to go there, as I'm not either interested in worldwide socialism, anymore. It's for others to try out and I wish them the best of luck, against all the odds.

[Joe Chi Minh]

134. No you're the one who's retarded. Morally and intellectually.

I noticed the illogical way you conflated our position with right-wingers in an earlier post, and thought at the time you were a troll.

It seems to be their ploy of last resort: say something nonsensical. It often stops the discussion, leaving DUers scratching their heads, wondering why it doesn't makes sense, and assuming they've missed something. It wasn't meant to make sense. Precisely the opposite.

How DARE you shed your crocodile tears on here! You've made it abundantly clear that you were more than happy with the situation in the US, prior to this incipient crash. Never mind that:

"About 3.5 million US residents (about 1% of the population), including 1.35 million children, have been homeless for a significant period of time. Over 37,000 homeless individuals (including 16,000 children) stay in shelters in New York every night. This information was gathered by the Urban Institute, but actual numbers might be higher."

http://www.washprofile.org/en/node/2295

Fungible, expendable, in the immortal words of the wee Rumsfelt.

Never mind that so many couples had to, each, work 2 or 3 jobs, in order to stay one or two pay-checks away from homelssness. Just so long as long as they could continue to make your portfolio profitable, eh? I'd like to now your income and assets. It's you, yourself, you're crying for. You fool no-one.

[Birthmark]

40. Many of us are infuriated.

We saw this coming. We wrote and posted about. We were ignored...as were even the professionals who saw the same thing we did. This was an avoidable tragedy. It was inflicted on the many by the few-- for their own greedy purposes. I doubt that anyone here is happy. Anger, sympathy, and depression are here in abundance, though.

[Roland99]

41. I'm of the same camp

We've all seen this coming. Hoped it wouldn't but the powers-that-be kept making dumbass move after dumbass move.

It's like watching your favorite team trade away the best players and then predicting and even betting on a losing season. Still sucks to see it happen.

[Hugin]

43. "This was an avoidable tragedy."

There's the key and not only was it avoidable... It was done deliberately by those who are profiting from it.

I'm not sure which is more negative. Shouting a call for vigilance and action or bringing this disaster down on
the heads of the less fortunate.

[Tansy_Gold]

118. It's why I have this --

[hamerfan]

45. You nailed it, Birthmark!

This is exactly what we are feeling. Even Joe The Plumber would feel this way if he were smart enough to think for himself, :o
dumpbush

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

100. Infuriated vs. happy. Indeed.

But forgive me if I see a silver lining in the fact that the bullshit that is Reaganomics may have been mostly expurgated(for now). At too dear a cost, yes, but that's the way it always is with the knuckledraggers.

[girl gone mad]

46. You're out of touch.

You were also cheerleading for the insane bailout plan.

You should listen to what critics are actually saying, instead of putting words into peoples' mouths.

[depakid]

60. Yep- Like Krugman and others- I wanted to see comprehensive action

to stabilize the global credit markets.

Seems to me that's the rational thing to do- and world leaders agreed, and are still working on it.

On the other hand- some people seem to prefer to just burn it all down, so they can look like they "knew it all along."

Not only is that immature behavior- but also rather digusting.

[TheWatcher]

63. And exactly how broad are you painting with this brush? Who are you calling out?

Because I personally have not been able to spot anyone who was "Cheerleading" or "hoping" for this to happen.

As for your faith in the Bailout, hate to say it kid, you were had, and so was everyone else who trusted the criminals who put it together. I know you meant well, and you really did want to see something of comprehension and substance, but what you got was just another criminal scam from the criminals in this administration.

A lot of us who were against it wanted the SAME THING YOU DID.

Let's just say we didn't trust the foxes to guard the hen house with any sort of sincerity and urgency.

[depakid]

76. Not painting with any "broad brush" -just making an observation

about what I've noticed on some of the threads. In a few cases, it's been overt- but generally, it's been a product of the all too American obsession with punishment.

Of getting "the criminals" -and overlooking the overriding public interest, both here and abroad.

Ironically, if you step back, you might see yourself painting with a broad brush- think about it.

Every world leader and central and reserve bank member who supports and undertakes in your terms- capitalized: "Bailouts" is a criminal?

Gordon Brown and Kevin Rudd are criminals?

[llmart]

110. But sometimes.....

that's the only way some people learn a lesson. Without getting too "Oprahesque" here, everything happens for a reason and maybe the reason/outcome will be that Americans will learn something from this. I'm not optimistic, but who knows? Maybe, like Tansy Gold said, we'll realize that the whole concept of "I've got mine the hell with you" doesn't work too well and we'll understand that we need to work as a community to better everyone.

[sendero]

54. There is a huge difference..

... between wanting something to happen and knowing it is going to and being prepared and trying to make others understand the need for preparedness.

I've been hearing your particular brand of nonsense around here for years, and it doesn't wash. And all the while most of those voicing your viewpoint have been poo-pooing the gravity of this situation all along. You GET the gravity NOW?

This shit is happening whether you like it or not. I'd rather it didn't but hiding my head in the sand is not making it go away for me or for you.

And one final point, until this shit HAPPENS, it cannot be fixed. We cannot start over until we get this mess resolved, whatever that will be.

If you detect a sense of urgency from some of us it is because we are frustrated that the government just keeps prolonging, and making worse, the eventual reckoning.

All of these phony assets will eventually be written off, the sooner the better.

[tama]

58. Japanese curse:

"May all your karma debt be due in two weeks." So no, I'm not hoping for "sooner the better". I'm praying, humbly, for couple more years. I't takes a while to learn gardening, starting out ecocommunities etc., planting the seeds of Paradise on Earth and seeing them sprout.

[sendero]

62. Yeah by all means..

... let's delay, and make worse, this crisis to accommodate those who refused to listen and prepare.

You really have the high ground there.

[tama]

73. A thing

as big as the whole globalized civilization does not unwind in just couple of weeks, so I don't think humble wish of couple years before everybody goes back to self sufficient way of living off and with the land is too much to ask. So that more of us could have a chance, not only to prepare, but to wake up and start learning how to learn.

If you meant merely the Anglo-American model, by all means, let that be bygones as of yeasterday.

[FarCenter]

87. The "self sufficient" population would be far less than 6.7 billion

If the economic systems really collapse, and production of fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, fossil fuels, drugs, etc, actually stops or slows dramatically, the population will deacrease to roughly 1900 levels.

Going from 6.7 billion to somewhat less than 2 billion would be a greater decrease than the Black Death.

[tama]

92. And the great irony is

that with permaculture gardening and agroforestry, living modestly but fully and happily inside natural boundaries, the land available for cultivation would support all of us, with all the destruction that has been done. It's the greed that is killing us, not Mother Nature. She is still offering a chance for us, each of us - but do we take it?

[Joe Chi Minh]

65. I don't get why you think the far right would be pleased to see the

world's economies crash any more than Socialists - although they at last can see some light for mankind finally appearing at the end of what, admittedly, could be a very long and painful tunnel.

Satisfying though their sense of vindication may be (their negative feelings concerning the awful, current reality can change nothing. "Sufficient unto the day are the evils thereof), such satisfaction would be exceeded by the expectation that it could finally open up the possibilities of some kind of world-wide brotherhood, a planet-wide "civilisation", worthy of the name. Ghandi will be pleased at that. And even Churchill too, now, I expect.

As Chomsky pointed out at the moment, there are already millions, possibly billions, dying each year from starvation and thirst - thanks to our greed.

[Hannah Bell]

67. didn't i see you a few weeks ago saying the bailout would prevent financial meltdown?

saying it over & over & over & over....

everywhere....

[tama]

84. Some might never learn

but let's believe there is allways a chance. Cause like it or not, imperialistic globalizers have guaranteed that we are all in this mess together. If we have a chance to learn from our mistakes, let's not ever again put all the eggs in the same basket.

[depakid]

85. I think you know that's incorrect- and a mischarcterization

Of what many of us have said.

Though, unlike some- I do believe, like people in every other Western nation does- that vacciation is an important component of public health- and keeps our kids from suffering from preventable diseases, whether or not some drug company profits from manufacturing them.

And I noted that every anti-vaccination crusader on DU- who rarely post otherwise, was all over the economic and financial threads. ;-)

[TheWatcher]

137. Nice Backtracking there. Very eloquent.

[JNelson6563]

82. This thread is a great source of information

While all over DU you can see people hoping for a dramatic crash, I can tell you that the regular marketeers here know better than most just what such a thing would mean. And they surely aren't cheering for it, neither am I.

Julie

[progressive_realist]

101. It is, perhaps, worthwhile to examine the situation from other perspectives.

Many use discussion boards for catharsis -- to express things they might not feel comfortable expressing in person or might not have an appropriate audience for. These are emotionally charged times and most of us have a complex stew of sometimes contradictory reactions brewing in our minds. If people sometimes seem to be gleefully anticipating the end of the world as we know it, I think it is more because they are trying to resolve their inner tensions than because they truly want a collapse of our social structures.

On the other hand, each of us currently occupies a different niche in society, and some of those are more rewarding than others. During my younger years, I was quite sympathetic to anarchism and bringing the whole system down, because I had very little to lose -- I was off and on homeless, and had no assets and not much income. From a position like that, a world in which large numbers of people are forced into eating at soup kitchens and sleeping on the streets isn't frightening, because you have already mastered that world and would have comparative advantage. There are certainly some individuals on DU who have this mindset, and I would be reluctant to say that they are wrong for having it.

One of the big lessons I learned from my own change in attitude over time is that society can only remain stable if enough people have vested interest in maintaining it. We have put our society in a precarious position over the last three decades, by allowing the gap between rich and poor to increase so much. There are many who now do not feel that the cost of maintaining the current infrastructure is worth the benefits they derive from it. This is a driving force behind the conservative tax revolt as well as the gloom-n-doomers on the left. Even in the case of Rome's fall, one of the major factors was that the agricultural populations on the periphery were being heavily taxed to benefit the urban citizens of Rome, and they started welcoming the barbarian conquests as an improvement to their own lots. The peasants never had indoor plumbing.

In our case, I hope this current crisis serves as a wake-up call. The barbarians are at the gate and if we don't start doing things differently, people may just open the gate and let them in.

[tama]

128. It is important

to recognize the roots of the disease, otherwise all we do is trying to fix the symptoms. Rome's fall was because of enviromental catastrophy, the usual story of all civilizations. Cutting the woods, mining the fertile soil by non-sustainable (=imperialistic) agriculture. Other problems follow from that one, destroying the basis on which one's life depends on.

I'm not ended where I currently am and how I feel and think because of freedom of poverty and no ties. I'm here because I've got children and others have children and we are leaving our children hell, the way we are living.

I can think fine and others even better, but what I trust is the heart - that we all share.

[Joe Chi Minh]

135. I think you are absolutely mis-stating who the barbarians are, here.

And as you should know, it's not rocket science.

You have one of the most backward and undemocratic societies in the western world (with the UK, not too far behind), OLD Social Democratic and Socialist Europe is a beacon of civilisation, in comparison. Any economic depression will be less severe beakdown of society will affect, and any breakdown of society, less anarchic.

[progressive_realist]

139. I didn't really specify who I thought the barbarians were.

As it happens, I think the most dangerous forces arrayed against civilization right now are, ironically, the fundamentalist versions of that most civilizing of forces, religion. Those plus the libertarian capitalists. All people who dogmatically hold simplistic worldviews in the face of an ever more complex world. These people are utterly incapable of maintaining the infrastructure necessary to support our large, complex societies.

The danger is that these simplistic ideologies become more and more attractive as folks feel more and more left behind by the world as it is. They may fail to realize that we already have ample examples of the end-state of reducing government to the size "where it can be drowned in a bathtub": Somalia, Haiti, Afghanistan, et al. In the long run, socialism and large, expensive governments are both necessary for the continuation of our civilization, so, yes, (Old) Europe is ahead of the USA right now. But if those large, expensive governments on either side of the Atlantic fail to keep their populace satisfied, any of them are vulnerable to unrest by fundamentalists offering simple, clear (but tragically and fatally flawed) alternatives.

I thought it was quite revealing the other day when McCain stated that the "anti-American elites" were residents of NYC and DC, the exact cities Al-Qaeda targeted on 9/11 as being the heart of America. Interesting that "patriotic, real Americans" and Muslim extremists both see the same people (us) as the enemy. Very interesting indeed.

[Joe Chi Minh]

141. The US has certainly been the laboratory for witnessing that, hasn't it?

"But if those large, expensive governments on either side of the Atlantic fail to keep their populace satisfied, any of them are vulnerable to unrest by fundamentalists offering simple, clear (but tragically and fatally flawed) alternatives."

In a way, this is one of the most seminal truths we are ever likely to see on any political board. Imo, it was because the building of the welfare state in the UK after WWII was not accompanied by a comparable spiritual growth, that the people became vulnerable to blind consumerism, and hence a vulnerability to Thatcher's lies. Not that she ever had a majority of the populace on her side, but our system, alas, doesn't require it.

[ozymandius]

3. Market WrapUp

Job Losses Mount as Recession Deepens
BY MIKE SHEDLOCK

Regardless of how much credit Paulson and Bernanke waste on bailouts, this economy simply is not going to recover with the unemployment picture looking as bleak as it does. Let's start off with a look at initial claims.

-see list of headlines and story snippets about job losses-

Jobs Are Not Coming Back

Every one of the above headlines is from today. I did not have to look too far to find them. Day in and day out someone is announcing job cuts. It's depressing.

And unlike 2001-2003, the bulk of those financial and auto sector job cuts are never coming back. Lehman and Bear Stearns are both out of business, and now that brokers are under direct Fed regulation, leverage will be reduced to 10-1 from a current 30-1 or even 50-1. The Auto sector is about to undergo more consolidation, and those jobs too will be gone forever when it happens.

I expect the reported unemployment numbers to rise to 7.5% to 8% in 2009 and keep rising into 2010. If so, expect credit card losses, foreclosures, bankruptcies, and corporate bond yields to rise. Expect retail sales, corporate profits, and government bond yields to drop.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

4. Today's Report

10:00 Existing Home Sales Sep
Briefing 4.97M
Consensus 4.95M
Prior 4.91M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Roland99]

6. dupe

stupid phone.

[ozymandius]

9. Today's circumstances rhyme too much with what happened

seventy-nine years ago. Read the headlines at the link from post #1.

[ozymandius]

7. Oil steady at $67 as investors await OPEC cut

SINGAPORE – Oil prices were steady at $67 a barrel Friday in Asia as investors waited to see how much OPEC will cut output quotas amid plunging prices and weakening global crude demand.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery fell 24 cents to $67.60 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Singapore. The contract overnight rose $1.09 to settle at $67.84.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which accounts for 40 percent of global oil supply, is poised to lower production quotas at an emergency meeting in Vienna later Friday. The question for investors is how much crude will the cartel take off an oil market reeling from a global economic slowdown.

.....

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures were steady at $2.03 a gallon, while gasoline prices fell 0.89 cents to $1.57 a gallon. Natural gas for November delivery rose 1.1 cents to $6.43 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Roland99]

8. Is today the day the US markets freefall? DJIA futures -550. Oil down 6.4% after OPEC cut

Person on CNBC just mentioned the 'waves' and need for S&P to stay above 880.

[ozymandius]

13. So what happens if the S&P does not stay above 880?

Did the talking head say?

and good morning Roland :donut:

[Roland99]

18. morning, ozy.

He didn't mention what the downside of that wave would be but we know it would be a tsunami.

[ozymandius]

20. Sounds like Greenscam

edited for misplaced post

[Roland99]

19. dupe, part deux

stupid phone

i'll blame it on the rain

[Imperialism Inc.]

105. It looks set to be another blood bath today. (NT)

[ozymandius]

10. Bear Stearns $30 billion mortgage portfolio falls 9 percent

NEW YORK (Reuters) – A Bear Stearns mortgage portfolio backed by the U.S. government racked up $2.7 billion of losses in the third quarter, amounting to a 9 percent decline on about $30 billion of assets, the Federal Reserve said Thursday.

Roughly $2 billion of those losses will be borne by the U.S. taxpayer. As of the end of September, the portfolio, originally worth about $30 billion, was worth $26.8 billion.

The Bear Stearns mortgage portfolio's risk ended up mainly in taxpayers hands in June, after JPMorgan Chase & Co agreed in March to buy the faltering Bear Stearns. JPMorgan Chase would only agree to buy Bear Stearns if the government guaranteed some of the failing investment bank's assets.

The U.S. government has provided well over $1 trillion in support to the financial system this year, through steps ranging from extra deposit guarantees to a $700 billion fund that is buying bad assets and injecting capital into financial companies.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081023/ts_nm/us_jpmorgan_mortgages

[ozymandius]

11. China sees severe global economic shock

BEIJING (Reuters) – The global financial crisis is a severe shock for the world economy and China is doing all in its power to tackle it, the country's leaders said on Friday.

Opening a two-day Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) of 27 EU member states and 16 Asian countries, President Hu Jintao urged a rapid response to the turmoil, which he said was posing various challenges to the world's fourth-largest economy.

....

He was speaking as stock markets worldwide continued to tumble as investors priced in the probability of a long recession in much of the world.

"The global financial crisis has been constantly spreading and worsening, creating a severe shock to global economic growth," Premier Wen Jiabao told the opening of the summit.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081024/ts_nm/us_financial_asem

---

So we're finally hearing from the Asian banks about the Great Shitpile. How much do they own? Dunno. But they are evidencing how much of their wealth is being drained away from toxic assets.

[ozymandius]

12. World markets sink; dollar at 13-year low vs yen

SINGAPORE – World stock markets tumbled Friday on growing alarm that a global recession will ravage corporate profits.

In Japan, shares of Sony sank more than 14 percent after it slashed its earnings forecast for the fiscal year. In Germany, Daimler's stock dropped 11.4 percent in morning trading after it reported lower third-quarter earnings and abandoned its 2008 profit and revenue guidance.

.....

Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average slid 9.6 percent to 7,649, its first close below 8,000 since May 2003. For the week, the index lost 12 percent.

European markets opened sharply lower as well, with Germany's DAX falling more than 5 percent in early trading. Britain's FTSE-100 was down 3.6 percent.

U.S. stock index futures were down sharply. Both Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor's 500 index futures were down more than 6 percent. On Thursday, the Dow rose 2 percent to 8,691.25.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081024/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

14. Job losses accelerating, and the worst is ahead

WASHINGTON – Unemployment claims, already well into recession territory, are rising even faster than expected, leading economists to warn Thursday that the worst is yet to come.

As the Labor Department released bleak new numbers on the job market, Goldman Sachs, Chrysler and Xerox all announced they were cutting workers by the thousands, adding to the woes of an economy beset by tighter credit and wobbly banks.

The government said new applications for unemployment insurance rose 15,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 478,000, above analysts' estimates of 470,000. Jobless claims above 400,000 are considered a sign of recession.

....

The Commerce Department will release its first estimate of third-quarter economic performance Oct. 30, and Wall Street analysts project it will show the economy contracted by 0.5 percent, according to Thomson/IFR.

....

Also on Thursday, Chrysler LLC said it would cut 1,825 jobs and Xerox Corp. said it plans to eliminate 3,000 positions, or 5 percent of its work force.

Other companies have announced reductions this week: Yahoo Inc. is cutting 10 percent of its employees, or 1,500 people, drugmaker Merck & Co. is eliminating 7,200 positions, and financial services firm National City Corp. will shed 4,000 jobs.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081023/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy

[Festivito]

15. Debt: 10/22/2008 10,495,669,391,439.70 (UP 28,278,257,708.60) (84% of report-avg)

(It's like they are alternating days. One high, next low, next high, ....)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,225,624,748,437.89 + 4,270,044,643,001.81
UP 35,922,282,339.83 + DOWN 7,644,024,631.27

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 33,800,153,596.63.
The average for the last 30 days would be 23,660,107,517.64.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 15 reports in 22 days of FY2009 averaging 31.40B$ per report, 21.41B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 90 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.6 and 12.6T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
10/22/2008 10,495,669,391,439.70 GWB (UP 4,767,473,595,258.13 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01 <--Not even realized by M$M yet. Over 1T$ in one fiscal year.
Borrowed in FY2009: 470,944,494,527.30 so far this fiscal year.

Heavy borrowing seems to start 10/18/2008.
US borrowed $831,037,588,180.63 in last 34 days.
That's 831B$ in 34 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 82% of that highest year ever only in 34 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 34 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3559624&mesg_id=3559632

[Festivito]

140. Debt: 10/23/2008 10,524,112,985,802.80 (UP 28,443,594,363.10) (82% of report-avg)

(Looks just like yesterday.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,250,228,142,316.10 + 4,273,884,843,486.77
UP 24,603,393,878.21 + UP 3,840,200,484.96

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 34,883,035,291.75.
The average for the last 30 days would be 24,418,124,704.23.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 16 reports in 23 days of FY2009 averaging 31.21B$ per report, 21.71B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 89 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.6 and 12.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
10/23/2008 10,524,112,985,802.80 GWB (UP 4,795,917,189,621.23 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 499,388,088,890.40 so far this fiscal year. Almost a milestone.

Heavy borrowing seems to start 10/18/2008.
US borrowed $859,481,182,543.73 in last 35 days.
That's 859B$ in 35 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 85% of that highest year ever only in 35 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 35 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3561885&mesg_id=3561913

[Festivito]

142. Weekend keep in My DU posts so I can find it Monday morn. /nt

[ozymandius]

16. Here's your little ray of sunshine for today.

Think of it. Let it sink in: regulators doing their job.

Regulators examining market close stock surges

WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. regulators are taking a closer look at unprecedented volatility in stock markets near the close of trading, hunting for any signs of manipulation.

....

FINRA typically looks at "market on close" activity, which are orders executed as near to the end of the exchange day as possible.

But its surveillance unit has now ratcheted up its examination of possible efforts by some firms to try to raise the price of a stock for marking near the end of the trading day. "Marking the close" is a form of market manipulation.

Firms could do this by buying a small number of shares to drive up a certain stock's price, and then sell a much larger number of shares at the elevated price right before the close.

In eight of the first 12 trading days in October, the range of the Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) has been greater than 500 points. The overall uncertainty about the future direction of stocks is being reflected in Wall Street's so-called fear gauge which surged to an unprecedented reading of 81.17 one week ago.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081023/bs_nm/us_financial_manipulation_finra

[TheWatcher]

21. The Fed Must Be Looking For Their Own Economic Version Of Oswald.

I almost had to do a double take when I saw that headline.

Color me a paranoid cynic Ozy, but I think the source of the biggest manipulation in this Market is in an area a bit lofty for US Regulators to get close to.

But it would be nice to see.

They should start at Goldman Sachs. Maybe have a little chat with Helo Ben.

We can dream, can we not?

[ozymandius]

22. Dream? Sure. I think of this as another chapter in 'Waiting for Godot'.

Stories will be woven about the news carried with his arrival...

[KoKo]

125. I have personally observed this....

I have a little money in two stocks I've held for years (for dividend in my 401-k) and monitoring them daily, I've personally noticed these strange gyrations. I've been trying to figure how to move them in my 401-k to a MM option (figuring they will go below dividend soon)but can never figure out the sell price because they move up and down in wild swings. The volume in the late afternoon in both stocks seems to show that traders are coming in and manipulating the prices.

If I, an unsophisticated investor, can watch this activity on my Yahoo screen with just two stocks then it must be multiplied all over the market. Yet, since I don't trade, I'm at a disadvantage in being able to figure out when to sell. What about the rest of folks like me who have to be in a 401-k but but wanted to be in safe dividend stocks rather than a Mutual Fund? They are going to wipe me out while they make money trading my two stocks and getting the profit from the spread in between.

I wonder if anyone will ever be held accountable for all the manipulation that's going on. It's almost impossible because of the programmed and "black box" trading. Anonymous programs interfering with any decision that an ordinary investor, of small means, can make as to when to sell.

[ozymandius]

17. Washed-Up Has-Been Partisan Hack Concedes Error on Regulation

Greenspan Concedes Error on Regulation

WASHINGTON — For years, a Congressional hearing with Alan Greenspan was a marquee event. Lawmakers doted on him as an economic sage. Markets jumped up or down depending on what he said. Politicians in both parties wanted the maestro on their side.

But on Thursday, almost three years after stepping down as chairman of the Federal Reserve, a humbled Mr. Greenspan admitted that he had put too much faith in the self-correcting power of free markets and had failed to anticipate the self-destructive power of wanton mortgage lending.

“Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders’ equity, myself included, are in a state of shocked disbelief,” he told the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/business/economy/24panel.html?bl&ex=1224993600&en=da694ed4921c5e8b&ei=5087%0A

---

This is what happens when you let a fiction writer (Ayn Rand) construct your economic philosophy.

[Joe Chi Minh]

44. ... fiction writer and essential psychopath, pandering to her own kind.

[tclambert]

48. Love the comment on Ayn Rand

I've been trying to explain to people that Rand was a gifted writer but terrible philosopher. Her economic philosophy was proven mathematically incorrect. But the game theorists who did so were just introducing their findings while Rand was writing (1950s). She likely didn't know of the work of Albert Tucker and John Nash. People today should know better. They made a movie about John Nash, A Beautiful Mind. In that movie, and in his life, his big breakthrough was realizing that "Adam Smith needs revision!"

Those who are motivated by greed are likely to cherry-pick arguments that justify their predilections and ignore the fine print and qualifications. The rest of us should have remembered greed is one of the seven deadly sins.

The parallels today with 1929 are so strong. Why do we have to go through this again? Some times I despair of finding intelligent life on Earth.

Still, it's good news that this is an election year. We can elect a Democrat to fix the mess now, before it gets too much worse. In 1929, they had to wait three years plus for FDR. Imagine if George Bush had 3 more years to bumble and bungle along.

[Dr.Phool]

91. Imagine that they steal it again.

Imagine John McGoo croaking when he finds out just how bad things really are. Then imagine a Mooselini presidency.

[TheWatcher]

25. As Of 6:17 EST, The Futures Are Showing A Tad Bit Of Weakness

S&P 500 -60.00 855.20 10/24 5:57am S&P 500 FUTURES
NASDAQ -83.50 1170.00 10/24 5:56am NASDAQ FUTURES
Dow Jones -550.00 8224.00 10/24 5:57am

I could be wrong, but I believe we have Lock Limit Down in The Dow and S&P.

Well kids, it looks like this is the day. We have all speculated about a Circuit Breaker Day for a couple of months now, and it just might be here.

Here are the Circuit Breaker Halts for Quarter 4 of 2008

Before 1:00 p.m.
1,100-point Decline in the Dow 1 Hour Halt
2,200-point Decline in the Dow 2 Hour Halt
3,350-point Decline in the Dow Close For Day G

1:00 p.m. - 1:59 p.m.

1,100-point Decline in the Dow 1 Hour Halt
2,200-point Decline in the Dow 1 Hour Halt
3,350-point Decline in the Dow Close For Day

2:00 p.m. - 2:30 p.m.

1,100-point Decline in the Dow ½ Hour Halt
2,200-point Decline in the Dow Close For Day
3,350-point Decline in the Dow Close For Day

After 2:30 p.m.

1,100-point Decline in the Dow No Effect
2,200-point Decline in the Dow Close For Day
3,350-point Decline in the Dow Close For Day

Good Luck To Everyone Out There Today, in all sincerity. Unfortunately it could be a very historic day.

[ozymandius]

30. It sounds like Roubini was correct again. See yesterday's article.

Roubini Says `Panic' May Force Market Shutdown (Update2)

Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Hundreds of hedge funds will fail and policy makers may need to shut financial markets for a week or more as the crisis forces investors to dump assets, New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said.

``We've reached a situation of sheer panic,'' Roubini, who predicted the financial crisis in 2006, told a conference of hedge-fund managers in London today. ``There will be massive dumping of assets'' and ``hundreds of hedge funds are going to go bust,'' he said.

Group of Seven policy makers have stopped short of market suspensions to stem the crisis after the U.S. pledged on Oct. 14 to invest about $125 billion in nine banks and the Federal Reserve led a global coordinated move to cut interest rates on Oct. 8. Emmanuel Roman, co-chief executive officer at GLG Partners Inc., said today that as many as 30 percent of hedge funds will close.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ax3ZRmJRccyo

[TheWatcher]

32. Dear God. Ozy I had not had a chance to read that yet.

The implications of an event like that are ENORMOUS and very frightening.

Things are much, much worse than we are being told.

[fedsron2us]

81. Mixed feelings about these events

In the short to medium term this is really going to hurt. However, most of the hedge funds won't be missed, and as decent long term stocks are likely to be sold off along with the dead beats this could be an opportunity for mutual funds (and by definition their middle class patrons) finally to get some value for once out of the casino. Be in no doubt that hedge funds failures are going to hit the wealthy hard so we may be on the cusp of seeing the same sort of unwinding in income differentials that took place in the 1930s.

[Roland99]

34. Yes, Dow and S&P are limit down. NASDAQ might as well be.

7700 today?

[TheWatcher]

61. We might see 7700 today and even 7500.

What you want to watch for though is a Giant Whipsaw event (Fairies and Invisible Hand notwithstanding) which could be breathtaking.

If we don't get the Waterfall Event, or a visit from the Fairies or the Invisible Hand, that will be a sight to see, and give most traders a bigger whiplash than a Drunken viewing of The Blair Witch Project.

GM is down over 10% in Europe last time I checked, and rumors are flying this morning that something might be happening with them (Starts with a B), but keep in mind those are RUMORS, and there is nothing substantial to them. (Yet.)

Take Care out there today Roland. Things are very, very bad.

We are in uncharted territory.

[Thor_MN]

29. Disn't they used to say if the US has a sniffle, the world catches a cold?

What happens when the cancer of Republican supply side economic policy is diagnosed?

[ozymandius]

31. Other nations have sought to innoculate themselves from our contagion.

What you say has been true. Still is - in some effect. Consider that central and south American economies will do much better (except for Argentina) than we will in weathering this spell. Europe has gone its own way. Britain's PM, Gordon Brown, has a plan to save that nation's banking system. This time, the United States follows suit, relinquishing its traditional leadership post.

[tama]

35. Don't stop asking half way

Go to the bottom (remember, fear is a mindkiller): What happens when the cancer or civilization, based on limitless growth in a limited system, is diagnosed?

[Joe Chi Minh]

136. It's allowed to work its way through the system, until the patient appears

distinctly moribund. Then, as usual, Socialists are called on to save the country.

[ozymandius]

33. Futures off 6.5%: Look Out Below! (The Big Picture)

US Futures are trading down 6.5% -- thats limit down on S&P Futures -- the percentage trigger where trading halts has been hit.

Looks like quite the free fall this morning -- Dow Futures off 5%, following the announcement of a contraction of GDP in the British economy. A global sell off has ensued.

Stocks tumbled around the world. South Korea's Kospi Index sank 10%; Japan off about 10%, and Europe Indices fell about 6%. The MSCI World Index lost 3.6%. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slid 6.3%, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank 6%.

Will we hit NYSE circuit breakers today?

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/10/futures-look-ou.html

[Roland99]

36. And wasn't LIBOR at 1.18% yesterday? It's 1.21% now.

[DemReadingDU]

37. Karl Denninger's latest essays: "Told you so."

Just go and start reading. It is indeed scary today
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/


direct links...


10/22/08 Fiscal Cat 5 Hurricane Warning
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/622-Fiscal-Cat-5-Hurricane-Warning.html

10/22/08 The Stark Choice Now Facing America
http://market-ticker.org/archives/623-The-Stark-Choice-Now-Facing-America.html

10/23/08 To Our Government: CUT IT OUT NOW
http://market-ticker.org/archives/626-To-Our-Government-CUT-IT-OUT-NOW.html

10/24/08 One Sentence This Morning: "Told You So"
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/627-One-Sentence-This-Morning.html

[hamerfan]

39. Wow!

Hang on today, people!
And good luck to all of us....
dumpbush

[ozymandius]

47. Damn! What he says.

So we've been playing "patty cake"? Damn!

[DemReadingDU]

90. What is Denninger trying to tell us?

That the government was 'borrowing' from our Treasuries to keep from crashing?

So whether we have Treasuries in a mutual fund, or have purchased Treasuries directly, we are screwed? So that would mean that a CD at a bank is screwed too as there is nothing left of the government to back the CDs? So that means everything is screwed...stocks, bonds, CDs, T-bills, bonds, notes? Nothing is safe?

Is that what Denninger is trying to tell us?

:nuke:

[Dr.Phool]

99. I was reading that at about 2:00am.

If what he says is true, we are truly screwed.

And his track record is pretty good.

[Dr.Phool]

96. Where's all them charts and Ouija boards and stuff today?

Weren't we supposed to be set for a "relief rally" (whatever the fuck that is) soon? And the mumbo-jumbo spread said we've bottomed out.

I made a run to the liquor store yesterday. I might be going back today.

[Dr.Phool]

97. Dupe

Browser or DU is acting funny today.

[Roland99]

120. Crikey!!!

:scared:

[DemReadingDU]

38. Columbus, Oh - National Century Trial Thursday's update

10/23/08 Prosecution rests in National Century case
Thursday, October 23, 2008 9:42 PM
By Jodi Andes

Federal prosecutors rested their case today against National Century Chief Executive Lance K. Poulsen, accused of masterminding the country 's largest case of private fraud.

But before resting their case, prosecutors dismissed a money-laundering charge that was one of 13 counts Poulsen faced.

Poulsen is being tried in U.S. District Court in Columbus on fraud charges tied to the company's 2002 collapse. Private investors, including pension funds, lost billions, with $2billion yet to be recovered.

In the first 12 days of the trial, federal prosecutors called nine witnesses: four former National Century employees, an FBI agent, a CEO of an investment company, and two health-care officials, before concluding yesterday with a financial analyst.

Prosecutor Leo Wise said the money-laundering charge was dropped after a review of the case.

Initially, prosecutors had planned to prosecute Poulsen with other National Century executives. But with Poulsen being prosecuted alone, Wise said that particular money-laundering charge might be confusing for jurors.

Poulsen's attorneys didn't object.

"If they want to dismiss other counts, they can feel free to do so as well," defense attorney Peter Anderson said.

Poulsen, 65, still faces charges of conspiracy to defraud, wire fraud, money laundering conspiracy, three other counts of money laundering, and six counts of securities fraud.

The government's prosecution team is handled by local Assistant U.S. Attorney Doug Squires; FBI special agent Ingrid Schmidt, who is a lawyer; and two U.S. Department of Justice trial attorneys, Kathleen McGovern and Wise, who prosecuted employee fraud at Enron.

Amy Boothe, an analyst for Alliance Capital, was the prosecution's last witness today. She testified that she began purchasing National Century notes for investors in May 2000, after believing the company bought only highly secure accounts receivable from health-care providers.

Poulsen's defense attorneys are expected to begin presenting their case Monday, calling FBI Special Agent Matt Daly, who was the case's primary investigator.

It should take about three days to present the defense, Poulsen's attorneys told federal Judge Algenon L. Marbley.
http://www.columbusdispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/10/23/poulsen24.html?sid=101



10/23/08 National Century investor describes final days
Thursday, October 23, 2008 - 4:14 PM
by Kevin Kemper

Not realizing National Century Financial Enterprises Inc. was sinking until it was too late, an investor testified in the fraud trial against the company’s former CEO that $183 million of her company’s money disappeared when Dublin-based National Century went under.

Amy Boothe, a former executive at AllianceBernstein Holding LP, told a 16-member jury assembled in U.S. District Court in Columbus on Thursday that just before National Century collapsed, Lance Poulsen attempted to downplay his company’s problems using technical jargon.

Boothe, the government’s final witness against Poulsen, said her company first purchased National Century bonds in 2000. National Century, once the largest financier of health-care providers, purchased accounts receivable from doctors’ offices and hospitals at a discount in exchange for quick cash the providers could use to pay their bills. National Century would then securitize those accounts receivable into bonds that it sold on the open market to investors like Alliance.

Boothe said Alliance purchased National Century’s AAA-rated bonds because the company’s executives reassured her and others that the bonds were safe investments and that the company operated efficiently. By late May 2002, Alliance had been experiencing good returns on its National Century investments, but became concerned when the rating agency Fitch Inc. placed National Century bonds on watch for potential downgrade.

After learning of Fitch’s warning, Boothe and other investors went to National Century’s offices in June 2002 to meet with Poulsen. Boothe said Poulsen reassured them about the company’s health so Alliance continued to hold National Century bonds.

In late October, however, Boothe said Poulsen informed her in a voice mail that National Century’s NPF XII bond fund was experiencing a “technical default.” Boothe said she became worried because she understood that the bond funds were designed so that something like a “technical default” would not happen. A fax sent to Boothe from National Century explained the default as a business decision to extend unsecured credit to clients so they could stay in business.

“We thought it was a willful violation of the (governing) documents,” Boothe said.

So does the government. Prosecutors have alleged that decision was actually part of a nearly decade-long pyramid scheme in which National Century was sending millions of dollars to companies owned by Poulsen without purchasing the accounts receivable. Poulsen is standing trial in Columbus, accused of orchestrating the alleged fraud. The government has charged him with conspiracy, securities fraud and wire fraud. He has pleaded not guilty to all charges

As investors became more concerned, Boothe said they held conference calls with Poulsen and other National Century executives about their investments. In an Oct. 25, 2002 call, Boothe said she asked if National Century was considering a sale of itself to remain viable. She wrote in her notes that Poulsen replied that although National Century had always kept that option open, a sale wasn’t necessary because it was profitable and healthy.

Just two weeks later, National Century would file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

After the conference calls, a group of investors put together a committee to go visit National Century on Oct. 27. After some brief talks, Boothe said Poulsen kicked the group out. The next day, the group went back to National Century for a presentation by Poulsen on how National Century planned to right itself.

Poulsen talked about “future receivables” in the presentation, Boothe said, which was a term none of the investors had ever heard. The government has alleged that “future receivables” were nothing more than illegal unfunded advances National Century was making to Poulsen-owned companies.

“We at Alliance concluded that most of what (Poulsen) had been telling us wasn’t true,” Boothe said.

Attempting to show that Alliance’s large loss was due more to a lack of due diligence than anything that happened at National Century, Poulsen attorney Peter Anderson quizzed Boothe on the finer points of finance. First Anderson attempted to get Boothe to admit that health care securitization is complicated. Boothe disagreed, arguing that health care securitization is no more complicated than other types of financing, just different.

Anderson then asked Boothe about some of the technical aspects of National Century’s business. He asked if Boothe had ever read the annual audits of National Century by Deloitte & Touche. Boothe said that she had not. He then asked who the bank trustees were for National Century’s bond funds and in what governing documents those responsibilities were laid out.

“I don’t know exactly what they did,” Boothe said of the trustees.

Boothe had a similar answer when Anderson asked her what information and methods ratings agencies used to determine the investment grade of National Century’s bonds. He also cited a passage from the offering memoranda of National Century’s bonds that essentially told investors to rely on National Century’s governing documents to understand how the company worked. Boothe responded that investors should have been able to rely on statements from National Century’s executives when they made a decision to buy the bonds.

Anderson also asked Boothe about some lawsuits that might have been filed against Alliance due to its investment in National Century, and a $258 million fine levied by the SEC against the firm. Before Boothe could get far into her answer, U.S. District Court Judge Algenon L. Marbley called a sidebar meeting of the attorneys. When the meeting concluded, Marbley instructed the jurors that those questions were irrelevant and would be stricken from the record.

Anderson concluded by asking Boothe more questions about her due diligence.

“If you had questions, you could have dug deeper to find certain facts. Is that right?” Anderson asked. “... You just relied on information provided by others?”

His last question was if Boothe was in court to settle a score.

“I was subpoenaed,” she said.
http://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/stories/2008/10/20/daily35.html



Link backwards to read Wednesday's articles, and older
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3559624&mesg_id=3559701

[coyote]

53. Futures hit the curcuit breakers.....we are in a lock limit down

Will unlock with the opening of the market.

[greyghost]

68. CNN just reported that they LOCKED THE DOW...

:nuke:

[Hugin]

71. Wow... There's some news!

Scrounge a link. 8/

[Hugin]

75. "Futures trading limits were imposed before 7 a.m. ET"

"Brutal start seen for Wall Street
Futures trading limited. Global markets swoon on recession fears as British GDP declines, OPEC cuts oil."


By Aaron Smith and Grace Wong, CNNMoney.com staff writers
Last Updated: October 24, 2008: 8:10 AM ET

"
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A wave of anxiety about a global recession was set to reach the United States at Friday's Wall Street open, with limits imposed on futures trading after they fell more than 6%.

Futures followed the lead of plunging markets worldwide, with Japan's Nikkei index ending down 9.6% and European markets down almost as sharply.

"Today might be the day where everybody throws in the towel," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist for Avalon Partners. "People are saying 'I've had it, I can't take it anymore, I'm selling everything.'"

Futures trading limits were imposed before 7 a.m. ET, when Dow Jones industrial average futures were down 548 points. The futures for the S&P 500 were down 60 and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 84. Futures measure current index values against the perceived future performance and can indicate how markets open when trading begins in New York.
"

More...

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/24/markets/stockswatch/?postversion=2008102406

________________________________________________________________________________-

[UpInArms]

89. US STOCKS-Futures frozen after steep plunge

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2450574020081024?sp=true

NEW YORK, Oct 24 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures tumbled so sharply on Friday that they had to be frozen at several points as global markets tumbled on signs the global economy is in the throes of recession.

Stock markets were in freefall around the world as panicked investors moved to liquidate risky positions. Japan's Nikkei index .N225 ended down 9.6 percent and European shares lost 8 percent. For more see .

By 8:00 a.m. in New York (1200 GMT) December Dow Jones futures DJZ8 were down 6.3 percent, Standard & Poor's 500 futures SPZ8 were off 6.6 percent and Nasdaq 100 futures NDZ8 were down 6.8 percent.

All three contracts lost the maximum amount permissible before the start of futures trading in the United States.

Both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq said trading would open as normal at 9:30 a.m. (1330 GMT). .

"The markets are basically following grim news that's coming out of the global economy ... It's basically feeding on itself," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners in New York, adding "... right now the markets are in the process of discounting a global recession and how severe it's going to be."

According to Reuters data, December S&P futures hit a low of 855.20, while Dow Jones futures touched a low of 8,224 -- the lowest levels at which both contracts could trade in a session. The Nasdaq fell to 1,168.50.

Jeremy Hughes, a spokesman for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in London, said both contracts were "limit down."

"The limit is calculated at roughly 5 percent down. At that point it can't go any further down but it is still accessible and can go up again," he said.

...more...

[Joanne98]

95. I've never seen the circuit breakers go on in the futures.

[truthisfreedom]

102. nobody has.

[greyghost]

123. Indeed

[natrat]

69. california workers pension plan wants a bailout because of 50 billion $ stock market loss

why should anyone get a bailout if they were stupid enough to be in investments over their heads re risk

[AnneD]

122. Just about every pension plan in the US.....

invests in the Stock Market. They take, for the most part, prudent investment risks. They are also prohibited by law to move stocks quickly, due to their large size, as this would destabilize the market-so they cannot move as quickly as the individual investor. Some give their members defined benefits, so the do have to make a bit more than inflation. In most cases the workers are required by law to invest in the pension-whether they want to or not. And in some cases, they may not even get social security because they receive the pensions. So by your statement, millions of Californians will face retirement in total destitution-actually they will not retire and have no hope of social security, after years of working at lower wages than a comparable job in the business world would fetch.

I work as a school nurse for 54K (with over 15 years experience),pay part of my wages into a retirement and cannot collect mine or my husband's Social Security. I have shopped my skills and can easily receive 80K a year at the Medical Center, and they match me dollar for dollar in a 401K (I don't get that at the non profit I work at). So, do I leave the children -it is almost impossible to get recruit School Nurses to get paid cash up front, or do I stay making less but knowing when I retire I will at least be guaranteed a pension. Makes it hard to get quality people to go into government jobs.

[SidneyCarton]

129. Yep, UC employee here, there goes my pension.

Fortunately for me, being 26, I may yet have time, there are a lot of my co-workers, who are approaching retirement, I fear for them.

[AnneD]

78. Morning Marketeers.......

:donut: and Lurkers. You won't here this on the news this evening-but FEMA is still as incompetent as they were during Katrina. They are working hard when the Kleg lights are on but otherwise, they are as useful as tit's on a boar. As of today-they have processed 7, yes 7% of the apps for housing (those wonderful trailers). Our Hurricane task force is sitting down with yet another new FEMA Director for this region. Judge Ed Emmitt(R) and Mayor Bill White (D) are pulling what's left of their hair out in frustration. We are having our first cold snap (ok ok, it's cold by our standards-47 last night). We have a semi-permanent family tent city in Galveston at Scholz air field for families and I am not sure where the singles are sleeping. The good news-the contractors for heavy trash removal are making a dent, the traffic is more bearable because crews have really been working OT to get the signals repaired, and God willing we will get some breaks and continue helping those that lost more. I have some students from Galveston, Bolivar and Kemah here at the school. They are not behind academically like the Katrina kids so that makes it easier for them and our poor overworked teachers.

And speaking of overworked, I have been doing some serious soul searching and I may be leaving the School System soon and returning to MD Anderson again. This year combined with other factors have made it hard to find my joy. I love dealing with the kids but it is the accompanying BS that is making me thing it is time for a change, maybe a change to another field entirely. I will still reflect on my options but I tend to stay 5 years at a position and I am past the 5 year mark-so this has been a very good run.

Hope we have a good day, but it looks to be brutal.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[TalkingDog]

94. Good grief!

Very sorry to know that you and yours are being subjected to a large dose of govt. bureaucracy. It's like that inept and clumsy cousin who decides to help you cook a big family meal. The intentions may be good but you are not sure the dropped roast, gravy stains on the wall and cracked toe bone are worth the "help" you've gotten.

Take care. Know that we are offering prayers for you to them gods that deign to listen....

[llmart]

131. I find your posts about the effects of the hurricane.....

very interesting because nowhere on the MSM do we hear about this. It's like everything's just hunky dory again in Texas. Our media has failed us big time. Wish I could help. I'm not working right now but I'm nowhere near Texas.

[KoKo]

133. Morning AnneD....

My God...tent cities in Galveston? I've not seen one thing about it anywhere. I tried to keep up with the Houston papers for awhile and would post articles here, but there wasn't much interest in "GD" about it anymore. I've been into other things and had no idea. I guess maybe it's better for people to be close enough to help in the clean up even if they have to be in a tent...but I wonder where everyone who has no hope of rebuilding and nothing left to clean up has gone. Is Fema still paying for folks in temporary housing who might have lost their job and everything? Where have they gone.

Sorry to hear your frustrations in your job. Maybe more security and less hassle is the way to go if one can do it during these frustrating times.

:hi:

[AnneD]

138. FEMA has to process the forms......

It's taking forever to get temp housing (trailers). They may come in in November-from what I have heard.

[InkAddict]

79. May I pre-emptively suggest a theme

It's a Bad Day - by R.E.M.

We're dug in the deep the price is steep.
The auctioneer is such a creep.
The lights went out, the oil ran dry
We blamed it on the other guy
Sure, all men are created equal.
Heres the church, heres the steeple
Please stay tuned--we cut to sequel
ashes, ashes, we all fall down.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBWdRMQfjdo&feature=related

[Hugin]

83. Good selection.

Though, it's not quite as bad a day as the Dinosaurs experienced some 65 Million years ago... In human experience,
it's up there.

[UpInArms]

86. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 86.352 Change +1.446 (+1.86%)

U.K Economy Slips Into a Recession as GDP Contracts 0.5% in the Third Quarter

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/U_K_Economt_Slips_Into_a_1224837808513.html

The advanced GDP reading for the U.K showed that the economy slipped into a recession for the first time since 1991 as the economy contracted 0.5% in the third quarter. Indeed, the downturn in the housing and credit sector paired with the slowdown in the global economy has certainly taken a toll on Europe’s second largest economy, and has left the BoE in a complex situation as inflation remains well above the bank’s limit of 3%. The downturn in the economy has certainly fueled expectations for the MPC to ease policy further as fears of a global recession intensifies, which would only fuel bearish sentiment for the British pound. In fact, the pound-dollar (GBPUSD) dropped to its lowest level since 2003 following the release as the pair dipped below the 1.56 level, and may fall further in the near-term as Credit Suisse overnight index swaps are showing that investors expect the Bank of England to cut at least 175bp over the next 12 months.

...more...

Yen Trades at 13-Year Highs Before European Trading (Euro Open)

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/Yen_Trades_at_13_Year_Highs_1224823863077.html

Yen traded at a 13-Year high during Asian trading as risk averse investors fled Japanese equities into the safe havened US Dollar. Indeed, the low of 95.32 was last seen as traders dumped their carry trades. Other than that Asian trading saw little event-sparked volatility as there were no new data releases scheduled for the day.

<snip>

Friday will be the day of sentiment indices. First, the French production outlook will probably continue its decline as the Purchasing Manager Index is to have declined half a point in October. Similarly, Italian Business and Consumer Confidence is expected to fall as demand for such Italian made luxury goods continue to plummet. The largest European economy, Germany, will probably also see their Purchasing Manager Index decline as the need for German produced vehicles and chemicals takes a backseat during the slowing economic climate.

The highlight of the week will come in the form of the British Gross Domestic Product release. With the global economic backdrop continuing its perpetual slump, this European economy is expected to have contracted in the 3Q by -0.2%. After expanding only 0.3% in the first half of the year, signs of a UK recession are becoming increasingly imminent.

...more...

[Joanne98]

93. Inverse ETFs Go Oversold

Stocks began Monday with a strong start and that strength only intensified after midday, leading both the Dow industrials and S&P 500 to gain more than 4% on the day.

All 25 stocks in our Top 25 PowerRatings Stocks have Short Term PowerRatings of 8. That's the good news. The bad news is that out of those 25, 15 are stocks that are trading below their 200-day moving averages and thus are not suitable for short term trading to the upside based on our swing trading methodology.

The ugly? The remaining 10 names in our Top 25 PowerRatings stocks are all oversold inverse exchange-traded funds (ETF).

Beauty, however, is in the eye of the beholder. And if the beholder is a short- term swing trader looking to make money in this bear market, then those 10 inverse funds may be "ugly," but that does not prevent them from being "attractive."

Several days ago I wrote about three inverse exchange-traded funds that swing traders might want to consider as stocks remained under pressure. Those three ETFs had huge, one-day returns of more than 18%, after that column appeared.

I want to remain focused on opportunities in stocks and as soon as quality pullbacks begin to reappear in stocks, be assured that I will point out and underscore those opportunities.

In the meanwhile, however, the potential opportunities in inverse or short ETFs as well as their leveraged cousins are such that swing traders should be aware of them. Here are three such leveraged inverse or short ETFs that all swing traders who trade exchange-traded funds, or who are considering trading these vehicles, need to know.

ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (amex: SDS - news - people ) Short Term PowerRating 8. RSI(2): 19.20

ProShares UltraShort QQQQ (amex: QID - news - people ) Short Term PowerRating 8. RSI(2): 27.00

ProShares UltraShort Technology (amex: REW - news - people ) Short Term PowerRating 8. RSI(2): 19.90

Although their 2-period RSIs are higher than those usually seen with 8-rated stocks, our research indicates that these are indeed oversold levels for exchange-traded funds. Generally speaking, an exchange-traded fund is considered oversold when its 2-period RSI slides below 40.

David Penn is senior editor at TradingMarkets.com. Visit TradingMarkets.com for more education, information and tools for shorter term trading.

http://www.forbes.com/2008/10/21/short-ultrashort-bearish-pf-trades-in_dp_1021dailytrades_inl.html?partner=yahootix

[natrat]

108. thanks for that link

i picked out my long fund to catch the falling knife with
sso-proshares ultra s&p---somewhere in the dow 6000 area if we get there,,,,if not i will pass

[Dr.Phool]

106. "This is the buying opportunity of a lifetime".

Some asshole on CNBC just said this. They need mandatory drug testing on the floor of the exchange.

[Joe Chi Minh]

127. Love that. Doc NotSoPhoolish! How about extending the mandatory

drug-testing to the neoliberal economists (I use the term very loosely), Capitol Hill, and the characters in the financial sector responsible for this meltdown.

[UpInArms]

107. AIG taps government loan again: report

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE49N1K920081024

(Reuters) - Troubled insurer American International Group Inc had borrowed $90.3 billion from the U.S. government as of Wednesday, three-quarters of the emergency funds made available to it under a federal rescue plan, the Wall Street Journal reported.

AIG, once the world's largest insurer before it was hammered by bad bets on mortgages, borrowed a further $7.4 billion from a government loan facility in the last week, the paper said on its website.

The move marked the first time the insurer had borrowed more than the government's original $85 billion rescue loan, announced on September 16.

Earlier this month, the government gave AIG nearly $38 billion more in fresh cash.

On Thursday, AIG Chief Executive Edward Liddy warned that the $120 billion-plus in emergency federal cash extended to the insurer may not be enough.

...more...

[Hugin]

109. "AIG Has Used Much of Its $123 Billion Bailout Loan" (WP)

"By Carol D. Leonnig
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, October 24, 2008; Page D01

The troubled insurance giant American International Group already has consumed three-quarters of a federal $123 billion rescue loan, a little more than a month after the government stepped in to save the company from bankruptcy.

AIG has borrowed $90.3 billion from the Federal Reserve's credit line as of yesterday, the bulk of it to pay off bad bets the company made in guaranteeing other firms' risky mortgage investments. That's up from roughly $83 billion AIG had borrowed a week ago, and the $68 billion level it reached a week before that. The news comes as the company's new chief executive warned Wednesday that the government's financial lifeline may not be enough to keep AIG afloat.

The high volume of taxpayer funds that the trillion-dollar corporation tapped within five weeks also has others fretting that the largest government bailout in history may still not be adequate. AIG began reporting unusual multimillion-dollar losses this spring as a result of its heavy exposure to risky mortgages, and the U.S. Treasury decided that its failure would probably bring down several other major investment firms and banks whose fortunes were tied to AIG."

A little more...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/23/AR2008102303352.html?hpid=sec-business

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Note: I was able to get this article once and then I recieved a "Subscription Only" notice the second time.
So, your results with the link may vary.

Does the AIG bailout remind anyone else of lending money to a drunken relative?

[MattSh]

111. Bug Me Not to the rescue...

If you do get a "Subscription Only" notice, maybe one of these login/pw combinations may work...

http://www.bugmenot.com/view/washingtonpost.com

[Hugin]

114. Cool, thanks.

I often forget about that and tinyurl.

:)

[Tansy_Gold]

117. What is it spending this money on?

Seriously, where is it going? do we get any accounting for it? Does it just sit on the books to make their balance sheet look better?



Tansy Gold, who should not be reading SMW when she has less-than-minimum-wage work waiting for her.

[Hugin]

112. ~09:33 EMT: Okay, hang on to the handbasket...

Dow 8,314.60 -376.65 (-4.33%)
Nasdaq 1,504.42 -99.49 (-6.20%)
S&P 500 868.56 -39.55 (-4.36%)

10 year bond is up slightly.

[Roland99]

113. 9:34am - Severed arteries all over

Dow 8,268.32 -422.93
Nasdaq 1,508.90 -95.01
S&P 500864.44 -43.67
10-year 3.55% +0.02
Oil $63.56 -$4.28
Gold $712.00 -$2.70

[Roland99]

115. I wouldn't be surprised to see the markets positive by 11am, though.

[UpInArms]

116. I started a new thread - over 100 post before 9:45! - link here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3562178