Top Republican Says a 60 Seat Democratic Majority is Possible

[brooklynite]

Source: CQ Politics

While Democrats went into this campaign season with a very slender, 51-49 operational majority in the Senate, Democratic and Republican officials don’t debate which party will control the Senate next year, but how close the Democrats can come to increasing their numbers to 60 seats.

Nevada Sen. John Ensign , the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), acknowledged Tuesday that a 60-Democrat Senate, which would in theory enable the controlling party to quash filibusters, was one of a range of possibilities that could come out of a Nov. 4 election in which Republicans are the defending party in 23 of the 35 contests.

“There’s quite a few races out there that are very much in play, and to say whether they’re going to end up with 60 votes in the U.S. Senate is unpredictable. Is it possible? It is possible. But it’s also possible that we end with 44, 45, 46 votes left in the U.S. Senate,” Ensign said at the National Press Club, where he appeared with New York Sen. Charles E. Schumer , the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC).

CQ Politics’ current Senate election projections give Democrats 56 seats and Republicans 40 seats, with four contests — all in which Republican senators are seeking re-election — as too close to call. CQ Politics gives Democrats strong advantages to win Republican-held open seats in Virginia and New Mexico, narrowly secure a third open GOP seat in Colorado and also narrowly unseat Republican incumbents in Alaska and New Hampshire.

Read more: http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002977442

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Just guessing Ensign won't be getting the NRSC gig next time around...

[torbird]

1. Wow, Republicans are really stupid.

And I don't mean just because they say things that can only hurt them and their party.

No, this guy is really stupid because it's actually NOT possible for the Democrats to get a 60-seat Senate majority.

Lieberman, for one, will likely get kicked the hell out of the Dem caucus after this election. There will be a firm Dem majority on Nov. 4, so he will no longer be needed -- and a lot of people are sick of him.

But more to the point, math is not our friend here. Go to fivethirtyeight.com and check it out.

We are poised to secure 5 Senate seats for sure (VA, NM, CO, NH, OR). There's a very good chance we pick up 3 more (MN, AK, NC). That's 8, for a Dem total in the next Senate of...57. To get to 60, we'd have to win in MS, GA, and KY -- the next closest races on fivethirtyeight. Unlikely.

[kenny blankenship]

4. Yes, it is unlikely. But Republicans will hype the possibility of a 60 seat D majority

to scare their donors, and also to make themselves look a little less like pathetic losers when it doesn't happen.

[YDogg]

8. that is it exactly. anything less that 60 will be touted as a win for the thugs

[LiberalLovinLug]

10. A more important reason

is to scare their base vote out to make sure it doesn't happen

[David__77]

15. Right. It's a fundraising tactic.

60 votes could possibly happen, but only with Lieberman. Perhaps he could be traded for Snowe. Who knows...

[Politicalboi]

5. Well those 3 are ripe

For Obama. I use this map.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Senate/Maps/Oct21-s.html

And here is the prez map

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[yardwork]

11. Actually, GA is starting to look likely. That's 58.

[Kalifornia.Kid]

2. Unfortunately that theoretical 60 seat majority would include "Ho LIEberman"

[brooklynite]

9. Think we can poach Susan Collins?

A moderate Republican might be a lot happier working with a broad-based Democratic President, rather than be a minority of a minority.

[Submariner]

3. Screw 60.....let's surprise them and get 65....or more

[Kalifornia.Kid]

6. From the folks at fivethirtyeight.com ...

Senate Projections, 10/20
Our Senate projections are little changed from our last update six days ago. We currently project the composition of the new Senate to be 56.7 Democrats, 41.3 Republicans, and 2.0 independents; this is not significantly changed from 56.6-41.4-2.0 last week. We furthermore show the Democrats as having a 32 percent chance to control a 60-seat caucus (counting independents Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders), up incrementally from 30 percent last week.

[kestrel91316]

7. Poor, poor, John. The Republicans tasked him with ensuring their

guys all would get reelected.

EPIC FAIL.

John, I don't remember what grades I gave you in vet school microbiology lab, but certainly you did better than this. I don't think I gave anybody an F.

[tclambert]

13. 538.com gives it about a 30% chance.

Unlikely, but not impossible. And Nate gives McCain about a 7.5% chance of winning. Now that's very unlikely. As the McCain campaign grows more desperate, their floundering may further embarrass the whole party, and turn voters off to all things R.

[ooglymoogly]

12. Hmmmm so many variables here

like pugs being recruited to run as dems and those already identified Joe Lie berman and co et al.

[Vinca]

14. We need 61, otherwise Holy Joe is King of the Senate. nt

[damntexdem]

16. But it won't be enough unless it's 60 without LIEberman.

But then, even if it's 57 or 58, a few moderate GOPers might help, with or (preferably) without LIEberman.

[heliarc]

17. Five thirty eight...

says about a 1 in 3 chance that we'll have 60 senators... Rad.

[MasonJar]

18. McConnell and Lunsford are tied in Kentucky/48% to 48%. Yea!!!

We Kentucky dems are all praying a lot lately, just as McConnell is no doubt preying on out voting rights any way he can.