Minnesota Poll: Obama, McCain are dead even in state

[question everything]

Source: Minneapolis StarTribune

By BOB VON STERNBERG, Star Tribune

September 14, 2008

Minnesota has become a battleground in a presidential campaign that has dramatically tightened nationwide. A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll shows that the race is now a dead heat between Barack Obama and John McCain, each supported by 45 percent of likely voters in the state.

The new poll likely will stoke both sides' efforts during the final 51 days until the election, triggering a barrage of advertising, grass-roots politicking and, potentially, stepped-up visits by the candidates. The poll found that McCain has made gains across the board since a May Minnesota Poll that showed him trailing by 13 points. He has picked up considerable support among men and to a lesser degree among women. He also has boosted his standing with whites, young voters and all levels of household income and education.

Conducted a week after the Republican National Convention was held in St. Paul, the poll likely reflects -- at least in part -- the traditional bounce candidates enjoy after being in the spotlight. Part of the rise in McCain's fortunes nationally has been attributed to his choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, a move that has energized his party's conservative base. But the Minnesota Poll found that the choice of Palin was essentially a wash among the state's voters. While 30 percent said it made them more likely to vote for the Republican ticket, 26 percent said it made them less likely to do so. For the rest, it didn't make much difference. Follow-up interviews with people who participated in the poll, however, showed that Palin evokes strong reactions.

(snip)

The poll found that men are slightly more likely than women to say the choice of Palin boosted their support for McCain. Democratic vice presidential candidate Joseph Biden is seen as far more qualified to be president than Palin, even though Minnesotans have a less favorable opinion of him... The poll contains a bright spot for Obama -- his support among likely voters is more solid than McCain's. Seventy percent of those supporting the Obama-Biden ticket describe their support as strong, compared with the 59 percent of McCain-Palin backers.



Read more: http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/president/28353589.html

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A desperate call for the Obama campaign: DO SOMETHING! Only a few days ago, Minnesota was firmly in the Obama camp.

[dennis4868]

1. Lies about your record and your opponent...

works!

Bush proved that and now McCain is proving it. Lies, lies and more lies is the way to go if you want to win.

[question everything]

2. Which is why we, too, need to get down to the gutter

"wondering" whether McCain want to expose small children to sex predators.

[crossroads]

30. See This - Palins Lies

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efACWYRNRcQ

CR

[question everything]

36. Republicans do not want to be bothered by facts

they go by their "gut" feelings. Look at Bush in 2000.

[calmblueocean]

3. It's a blip. Believe me, Obama has this state locked.

I'm sure the pick of Sarah Palin got some rural folks here excited, but she's on the decline now, and there is such a huge grassroots groundswell here for Obama that I have no doubt he's got this state in the bag.

[jpgray]

4. Don't believe the hype--we went for Mondale, fuckers

:P

[question everything]

5. But not in 2002 after the loss of Wellstone

selecting Normie, instead.

:banghead:

[jpgray]

6. We had the full weight of the GOP machine brought to bear on every trifle in that case

Not to mention this was at the height of 9/11 - Iraq war propaganda. I don't believe the same will hold true in the presidential election.

[dchill]

15. If I'm not mistaken, that GOP machine...

is low on fuel this time around.

[AndyTiedye]

19. You Are Mistaken

They were just pretending to be, so we would become overconfident.

[dchill]

20. But we've got more...

a lot more.

[AndyTiedye]

24. Not If You Count All the FREE Airtime the MSM Gives the Repiggies

The value of that airtime dwarfs all the money we have raised, may times over.

[dchill]

25. OK, you win.

But I see the recent media coverage of McCain/Palin as hurting more than helping. JMO.

[melody]

28. Why do you bother with discussion here, I wonder?

You seem to be always resoundingly and persistently negative about it.

[AndyTiedye]

31. Because We Must Not Underestimate Them (Again) or We Will Lose

Assuming that the Republican Machine is "low on fuel" would be very dangerous.

[melody]

33. You're not saying we might lose, you've repeatedly said we *will* lose

Discouragement does not compel people. Hope does. If you want to urge people to enter, you don't slam the door closed.

[wolfgangmo]

29. maybe not, but...

... this was the state that didn't elect Patty Wetterling and instead sent a nutjob named Michelle Bachmann to Washington who has voted with Bush 100% of the time and tried to give him a handjob the first time she was introduced. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzzjU62Q2ns.

She has quoted Man Coulter. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUHhX76AShs&feature=related

She has said she is 'hot' for Jesus http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cm16dBXn5u0&feature=related



Do not underestimate the stupidity of parts of this state. I live in the St. Cloud area and the standard joke around here has to do with family trees resembling sticks. There is even a medical syndrome called Stearns County Syndrome to explain what generation of inbreeding does to ones genetics.

So yes, Virginia, this state could go to the incest queen of the north, Caribou Barbie. They actually ARE that stupid.

[question everything]

37. Michelle Bachmann was already an elected official

while Wetterling did not have any experience.

Yes, Republicans like to play the experience card when it fits their need.

[Eric J in MN]

10. If everyone who wanted to vote in the 2002 race had been able to...

...than Walter Mondale would have won.

The problem was that absentee ballots for Norm Coleman cast before Paul Wellstone died were considered valid, and absentee ballots cast for Wellstone before he died were thrown out.

And the election office refused to send new absentee ballots to people who voted for Wellstone by overnight mail.

Ideally, when someone votes for a candidate who dies before the election, the vote should count for the new candidates of his party.

[mascarax]

21. Wellstone Absentee Ballots

Eric - How many were thrown out? I don't remember this...

[Lydia Leftcoast]

23. I don't know the exact numbers, but my mother and stepfather

were two of them.

They were going to be visiting the West Coast (including a stop to see me in Oregon), so they mailed off their absentee ballots the day before the plane crash.

They assumed that their Wellstone ballots would count for Mondale. By the time they found out that they had to cast new ballots, it was too late to get them back to Minnesota by Election Day, even using FedEx both ways.

Given the number of people who are traveling at any one time, I'm sure the number of rejected ballots was significant.

[Eric J in MN]

26. I don't know how many.

Another issue was that lines at the polls were slower because the poll workers had to explain to voters about the supplemental ballot.

[ben_meyers]

8. You also elected Ventura because

there was constitutional amendment on the ballot to protect "huntin' and fishin'" as a right and that brought out the same rednecks as Palin will.

[featherman]

7. Likely voters???? What are the crosstabs, please?

[Eric J in MN]

11. They talked to 1,200 and only tossed 100 of those as unlikely to vote...

...and so I don't think the problem is that their Likely Voter categorization is bad.

[featherman]

12. Not my question: Party ID breakdown? Age demographics, etc? Are these available?

I guess I could check myself

[featherman]

13. McCain leads Obama in the "under 35" age group in this poll for example

Few if any national or state polls have shown this result. Did it over sample Republican and Republican leaners?

[bjb]

32. Ads

We need an ad showing McCain singing Bomb, Bomb Bomb Iran and in the background having hundreds of young people signing up for the draft. I refuse to believe the young people are for McCain.

[question everything]

38. We need to go down to the gutter

they have an ad claiming that Obama voted for sex education for kindergarten kids. So we need to have our own asking whether McCain objects to protecting kids from sex predators.

(which was the real piece of legislation).

[Phred42]

9. Bullshit

[loveable liberal]

14. Feelenty has ruined our educational system....

As more people are ignorant, the more they vote for repubes.

[alcibiades_mystery]

16. Might as well not worry about Minnesota

If we lose Minnesota, it's a blowout anyway. Let the people there do their thing, and everybody else forgot about it.

Absolutely useless to devote anything but rudimentary resources to Minnesota.

[Doctor_J]

17. True. If MN goes McSame, he's probably looking at 320 EV or more

This isn't a complete surprise. There are moose eaters in MN too. It's hard to believe they would trust the country to a stupid, lying, corrupt, inexperienced, adulterous fascist, but if it happens I'll head to old Europe and watch the fall of the 4th Reich from there

[quip]

27. Correct! In presidential elections, Minnesota is true blue all the way.

[entanglement]

18. Not surprised - there is a bit too much of the Nordic pride thing in Minnesota

[mascarax]

22. Poll Details - Oddities

Here's what caught our attention in the MN poll:

VIEWS: "Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following phrases describes McCain/Obama."

"Understands the needs & problems of people like you": Obama 63% / McCain 47%
"Shares your views on most major political issues": Obama 50% / McCain 44%
"Would make an effective commander-in-chief": McCain 67% / Obama 54% *
"Has made it clear what he'd do as president: McCain 59% / Obama 52% {Obama needs to improve!)
"At 72, too old to serve effectively": McCain 29% (Obama N/A) (why not throw in his health issues to? very valid!)
"Is too inexperienced to serve effectively": Obama 44% (McCain N/A) (thanks, Repub talking points)


ISSUES: "Please tell me which candidate you think would do a better job handling each of the following issues as president."

"Economy and jobs": Obama 48% / McCain 39%
"Energy policy and gas prices": Obama 48% / McCain 39%
"The Iraq war": McCain 49% / Obama 41% *
"Health care": Obama 50% / McCain 33%
"Taxes & government spending": Obama 44% / McCain 43%
"Terrorism & national security": McCain 54% / Obama 34% * (let's get Biden out there & others - e.g. you can't tell me that
Richard Clarke is supporting McCain)
"Other issues like... guns and same-sex marriage": Obama 42% / McCain 40%


*insert Sam Kinison-like scream here

[dflprincess]

34. McCain has been running ads here constantly

and I have yet to see an Obama ad. Third party candidates did have effects on the margins Gore and Kerry got in the state. Nader got about 5% in 2000 - enough to make the difference in a tight race. Obama's campaign needs to stop assuming Minnesota is safe and spend some money here.

[and-justice-for-all]

35. "Star Tribune Minnesota Poll "

Its a local news paper poll, dont panic.

Instead, get up tomorrow and do some neighbor to neighbor, you can do this from www.barackobama.com