Zogby Poll: Equilibrium in the POTUS Race

[robcon]

Source: Zogby International

Brash McCain pick of AK Gov. Palin neutralizes historic Obama speech, stunts the Dems' convention bounce

UTICA, New York - Republican John McCain's surprise announcement Friday of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate - some 16 hours after Democrat Barack Obama's historic speech accepting his party’s presidential nomination - has possibly stunted any Obama convention bump, the latest Zogby Interactive flash poll of the race shows.

The latest nationwide survey, begun Friday afternoon after the McCain announcement of Palin as running mate and completed mid-afternoon today, shows McCain/Palin at 47%, compared to 45% support for Obama/Biden.

In other words, the race is a dead heat.

The interactive online Zogby survey shows that both Obama and McCain have solidified the support among their own parties - Obama won 86% support of Democrats and McCain 89% of Republicans in a two-way head-to-head poll question not including the running mates. When Biden and Palin are added to the mix, Obama's Democratic support remains at 86%, while McCain's increases to 92%.

Read more: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews1547.html

---

Although Zogby is the least reliable poll, this is the only poll taken AFTER the Palin announcement (other tracking polls - Gallup and Rasmussen - are 3-day averages.)

I expected a huge bump for Obama after the convention. It may not have happened.

[movonne]

1. These polls are shit...no way this is close...

[Born Free]

23. Close enough....

They just need to provide a plausible explanation and the machines that count the votes will do the rest.

[d_b]

2. online interactive. Zogby. n/t

[NWHarkness]

3. Why even post this crap?

Zogby Interactive isn't considered credible within serious political circles.

[Tarheel_Dem]

4. You are kidding right? It's an ONLINE survey.

:eyes:

[bkkyosemite]

5. Hope it's okay to post this:

General Election: McCain vs. Obama
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 08/18 - 08/29 -- 47.7 43.8 Obama +3.9
Gallup Tracking 08/27 - 08/29 2709 RV 49 41 Obama +8
Rasmussen Tracking 08/27 - 08/29 3000 LV 49 45 Obama +4
CNN 08/23 - 08/24 909 RV 47 47 Tie
USA Today/Gallup 08/21 - 08/23 765 LV 48 45 Obama +3
Hotline/FD 08/18 - 08/24 1022 RV 44 40 Obama +4
ABC News/Wash Post 08/19 - 08/22 LV 49 45 Obama +4

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

[LonelyLRLiberal]

6. National polls don't really mean much, do they?

Unless it is to try to cover up voting fraud

[eagertolearn]

21. You mean election fraud...If they can make it look close stealing it again might work! n/t

[Teaser]

7. This is not a poll. Don't be a dope

It's an interactive survey. Like those things you fill out CNN's web page.

Don't be a dope.

[santamargarita]

8. They poll the same people over and over - it's bullshit!

~

[Teaser]

9. It's not even a poll.

It's just his online nonsense. It's something you could whip up on a myspace page.

[Teaser]

10. Do press releases belong in LBN?

This should be moved somewhere else, I think.

[Cush]

11. read these

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB116360961928023945-NgMgbTwNTEbcTx_C47luM8eH8lM_20071115.html?mod=blogs

But the performance of Zogby Interactive, the unit that conducts surveys online, demonstrates the dubious value of judging polls only by whether they pick winners correctly. As Zogby noted in a press release, its online polls identified 18 of 19 Senate winners correctly. But its predictions missed by an average of 8.6 percentage points in those polls -- at least twice the average miss of four other polling operations I examined. Zogby predicted a nine-point win for Democrat Herb Kohl in Wisconsin; he won by 37 points. Democrat Maria Cantwell was expected to win by four points in Washington; she won by 17. (Zogby cooperated with WSJ.com on an online polling project that tracked some Senate and gubernatorial races.)

The picture was similar in the gubernatorial races (where Zogby polled only online, not by phone). Mason-Dixon's average error was under 3.4 points in 14 races. Rasmussen missed by an average of 3.8 points in 30 races; SurveyUSA was off by 4.4 points, on average, in 18 races. But Zogby's online poll missed by an average of 8.3 points, erring on six races by more than 15 points.

Zogby's online polls "just blew it" in Colorado and Arkansas governor races, Chief Executive John Zogby told me. (See Zogby's scorecard.) In other races, such as the two Senate races I mentioned, "we had the right direction but a closer race than the final." One explanation, he said, may be that Zogby's final online polls collected responses one to two weeks before the election, whereas other polling firms were active until the final week. "We have more work to do" to improve online polling, Mr. Zogby said, but he added, "we believe it's not only the wave of the future, but the future is very close to now."

http://www.cjr.org/politics/how_reliable_is_the_zogbyjourn.php

When reached by phone last week, Cliff Zukin, a political science professor and polling expert at Rutgers University, suggests that journalists should generally be wary of any Zogby interactive poll.


“The Zogby stuff, on scientific grounds, is quite questionable,” says Zukin. “Online, Internet, opt-in polling, where people volunteer to be respondents, doesn’t really have a basis in scientific validity. There are two kinds of samples in the world. There are probability samples, and there are non-probability samples.”


The Zogby interactive polls, says Zukin, clearly fall into the latter camp. “With probability samples, when everybody has a known chance of being selected, you can make pretty valid inferences about the population from which it is drawn,” says Zukin. “You can’t do that at all with self-selected surveys. That’s a problem.”

[Nostradammit]

12. Yeah, that must be the case.

Americans were doubtless unimpressed by that brilliant speech Obama wrote and delivered and they must be enthralled with the VP choice of an ex small town mayor they'd never heard of.

Only explanation that makes sense.



Unless that poll is bullshit.

[LongDistanceRunner]

13. your concern is concerning

seriously, an internet poll????

[ksimons]

14. puhhhlease.... only Republicans pick up the phone from strangers.

Democrats have unlisted or cell phones on the do-not-call list and are smarter than to answer calls from unlisted, blocked or strange numbers. The polls you will see are going to be on Election Day - you watch.

[Waiting For Everyman]

15. 538 says 58.9 Obama, 41.1 McCain

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

That's up a point from yesterday. (just happened to look)

[regnaD kciN]

26. That figure is the "win percentage"...

In other words, every time he runs his computer simulations (based on current polling data and his own demographic analysis) 1000 times, Obama wins the required number of electoral votes 589 times and McCainiac 411 times.

He estimates the popular vote margin as razor-thin: Obama 48.8, McCainiac 47.9. Even so, he forsees a solid probability of an Obama electoral-college win.

[Waiting For Everyman]

29. I noticed that later too, thanks.

[BRLIB]

16. I saw somewhere an 8 point Obama bump.

So where did this shit come from??
Who's lying, or who is getting $$ to lie??

[Politicalboi]

17. This is the poll

I pay attention to
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

I just can't believe that this race is close. And when the shit settles on his VP choice it's going to be even a bigger lead.

[Frisbee]

19. I do also, and I also watch pollster.com...

and while they seldom show the same numbers, I think it is safe to say that no matter how you slice it, Obama is CRUSHING McPOW in the electoral vote. And after all, that's what counts.

[Tutonic]

18. Zogby does polling like I check for rain--point a finger toward the sky!

Neither are reliable.

[GOPBasher]

20. The two latest Gallup polls have it 49-41 for Obama. See here:

http://pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

Scroll down to Gallup for the two latest polls they have on the site.

[LuckyLib]

22. That's what the MSM wants you to think.

[Alexander]

24. Nope, sorry, not buying the results of online polls.

Gallup Tracking has had Obama up 49-41 over McCain the past two days.

Not that national polls mean anything. Obama is leading in enough states to win.

[regnaD kciN]

25. ONLINE poll...

...not worth the paper it's printed on.

[lonestarnot]

27. Just another pile of crap. NO MCSAME NO WAY NO FUCKING HOW!

:puke:

[Vinca]

28. There is no way in hell Gramps and the Babe are leading. nt

[maryallen]

30. BULL!!!

Come on, Zogby!
Do you really think the American people will fall for a STORY/LIE like this?

[alfredo]

31. the bump occurred during the convention.

[qanda]

32. There absolutely NO reliability to an internet poll

I was emailed this poll the other day but ignored it. If I knew the results were going to be posted in LBN I would have taken the time to fill it out.

[MsLeopard]

33. I call bullshit

There's no way Palin trumped convention week. We're the most ill-informed, manipulated population in the history of the nation. What a freaking joke.