McCain takes 5-point lead over Obama-Reuters poll

[robcon]

Source: Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - "In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama's solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.

The reversal follows a month of attacks by McCain, who has questioned Obama's experience, criticized his opposition to most new offshore oil drilling and mocked his overseas trip.

The poll was taken Thursday through Saturday as Obama wrapped up a weeklong vacation in Hawaii that ceded the political spotlight to McCain, who seized on Russia's invasion of Georgia to emphasize his foreign policy views."

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUKN1948672420080820?sp=true

---

I expect a 10 point boost for Obama coming out of the convention. Then, the real campaign starts.

The good news for us: it's only a Zogby poll, the least accurate poll there is.

[JCMach1]

1. It is clear that Obama has lost all traction since his overseas trip

[baldguy]

3. to Hawai'i?

[JCMach1]

11. European trip...

[ksimons]

16. the thing about polls...

On the Republican side - if they are up, there's still not enough 'passion' for McCain to get people to go out to vote because they'll figure 'hey, he's up so why bother - not that excited about him anyway'
(if they are down, folks still aren't that passionate, but it might kick a few more butts in gear)

On the Democratic side - if we are down, add that to the Obama enthusiasm factor and you have a monster motivator that is going to bring the most hiding of voters out on election day to DELUGE the vote.
(and if we are up, the enthusiasm factor is going to end up bridging the 'well, he's ahead so why vote' factor and we'll be getting folks to vote on the 'just in case' factor... because they are enthusiastic.

Either way, Dems in this environment should be happy.

[wryter2000]

112. Welcome to DU

:hi:

[SteelPenguin]

2. They're claiming a 12 point swing in a month?

you've got to be kidding me.

[aggiesal]

130. I don't believe this poll for 1 second. Most polls are ...

using land line phone numbers.

We know that a lot of Obama supporters are the younger crowd like
college students. These supporters don't have land line phones,
but have cell phones.

Until the polls adjust their method of collecting statistics,
polls like this mean nothing.

[Ken Burch]

165. So, for all we know, this could be the modern equivalent of the "Liberty Digest" poll of 1936

(Which polled only people who HAD telephones, and forecast a landslide victory for Alf Landon.)

[aggiesal]

173. Yes, I believe that this could turn out to be that same sitch. n/t

[Starlight]

169. Seriously. Are we supposed to believe people are that fickle?

[merwin]

4. Actually, Zogby is one of the better ones.

Rasmussen, on the other hand, is a different story.

[JaneQPublic]

26. I lost faith in Zogby after the 2004 election. (nt)

[Captain Hilts]

32. Zogby is a good pollster and he's very unpartisan. nt

[merwin]

34. I just listened to an interview with him on Jon Elliott's show.

He explained why the polls are so close, but didn't mention anything about McCain getting the lead. Either way he seemed very unbiased during the interview.

[Captain Hilts]

39. He's a Democrat who happened to do a lot of work with Republicans.

It might be because being from Utica, Sherry Boehlert was the rep.

Surveys are a snapshot and that might be what this is. My only concern is that it kind of follows that pattern that the LATimes survey also reported.

[maseman]

85. I know polling and research

Zogby is sort of the one that the other research comapnies laugh at. Not very good.

[Clintonista2]

122. With zogby I found that

when they are accurate, they are VERY accurate, but when they are off, they are VERY off.

[Botany]

5. This is pure bullshit

I might be stupid but I am not dumb ....

The poll is wrong ... McCain = a vote on how do you feel about bush
bush is @ 23% approval rating ..... and if I wore a tin foil hat I would
think that the phony poll is put out so as to make everybody think that
McCain won after "they" steel another election.

Obama is pulling in support from republicans, business, and the military
in record #s .... something about this poll does not pass the smell test

[Pharaoh]

19. Yup!

This is how they steall elections, the try to make us think it's going to be close, but if McCain is ahead at this point I would say most americans must be brain dead.

[Triana]

95. Most Americans are misinformed. Many willfully so. Others because they listen to the M$M exclusively

and the M$M is nothing but a GOP propaganda machine.

[Xenotime]

171. I was going to say the same thing.

[Captain Hilts]

40. But you don't know how polling works. It's just a snapshot. Relax. nt

[Botany]

43. I know how polling works

the quality of the poll is equal to the quality of the sample and
the quality of the questions asked.

[Captain Hilts]

45. Thank you for stating the obvious. It's more complicated than that. nt

[Botany]

67. Really it is not much more complicated than that

Good Sample and Good Questions* = Good Poll

Although some statistical tests run on the data sets can be complex but
computers and spss methods have taken much of the pain out of that
too.


* not only good question asked th same way each time but having a
good person to ask the questions helps too.

[sellitman]

6. This coupled with the dirty voting machines makes me very nervous

Obama cannot win a close election IMHO

How can someone who self admittedly knows nothing of economics be a strong steward of the economy? I don't get it?

[Eurobabe]

14. My fear this morning too

God dammit Barack, get your VEEP out there NOW!!

[tibbiit]

22. get your vp out

only if he/she is a fire breather. Please no namby=pamby liberman type howdy doodies.
tib

[Eurobabe]

24. exactly

:thumbsup:

I am thinking Biden, that fire-breathing dragon. :rofl:

[ChiciB1]

124. AND MAKE IT JOE BIDEN PLEASE!!!! n/t

[GoesTo11]

7. McCain has 9 point edge on managing the economy???

That's like getting a squirrel to run a nuclear reactor.

[paparush]

93. That staggered me this morning. I couldn't f-ing believe it.

The guy can't complete a sentence. He's admitted, on camera, that he doesn't know much about how economics work. His econ guru called American workers "whiners".

But then, what do I expect from a country that bought GWB hook, line, and sinker. (yes, I think both 2000 and 2004 were stolen, but enough people voted for the dumb prick to make it steal-able)

[Thrill]

8. And Obama was up by 10 in Texas against Hillary in their Poll. I don't buy it

[TwilightGardener]

9. Reading the article, it says that while McCain is holding on to his

base, Obama is losing liberals. Is he losing them to McCain? How can that be? Why, in the span of one month, would liberals desert Obama? He didn't lose them from June to July (the FISA vote), he lost them from July to August. I guess the progressive wing of the party really likes losing--stupid fuckers.

[DrDan]

27. well - at great risk of being flamed - I would

suggest Obama's change-in-positions trying to woo more middle-of-the-roaders has turned off a lot of progressives - FISA, off-shore drilling, etc. There is certainly much less "excitement" about an Obama presidency. Bringing about change? Doubtful

Now please - I did not come out in favor of mccain. Just saying the "progressive" image of obama is waning.

[TwilightGardener]

33. Progressives might be "disappointed" that Obama didn't vote their

way on one or two issues, but I doubt Nader and McKinney are going UP dramatically in the polls. No, these "liberals" must be turning to McCain. Progressive purists remind me of some of the cats I took care of at the Humane Society--they'd sooner starve than eat the standard shelter cat food I gave them, because it wasn't good enough for their finicky tastes.

[atreides1]

38. No, these "liberals" must be turning to McCain.

Proof would be nice, why don't you provide some?

[TwilightGardener]

47. Where are they going, then?

[closeupready]

82. Maybe they've decided to stay home in protest, or write in Mickey Mouse.

Any number of possibilities.

[Lorien]

92. Home. n/t

[ChiciB1]

123. I Consider Myself One Of Those "True Liberals" Who IS NOT Happy OR

EXCITED about this election, but if it's close in November I suppose I will decide to vote! I know what my statement means, but my many years as a political activist, that once flamed like a bonfire, has now burned down to embers!

For sure it breaks my heart and I feel "lost and alone!" Too many Democrats can't or won't take the BULL BY THE HORNS letting the Repukes lie and cheat their way to the top of the mountain!

Add to the above, I live in one of the MOST Repuke counties in Florida (Sarasota) where a GOOD showing at any rally amounts to about 200 people... and most of them are pretty LIGHT compared to me!!! I'm a fish out of water and tired of hitting my head against the wall! This is the county that lost 18,000 plus votes in 2006 and despite some aggressive efforts by Democrats here, in the end. it was "more of the same old thing!" I've finally realized that I've been stuck by a PITCH FORK and have been forced to join the rest of "APATHETIC AMERICANS!" And before you get ALL JUDGMENTAL, my father introduced me to the world of politics way back in 1958 when I was 11!

I WILL however stay ready for a REVOLUTION, should one EVER emerge! I DO realize "you can't go back" and relive past history, but SOMETHING NEW could or should be created, because I believe America will spiral further down the proverbial RABBIT HOLE!

JMHO....

[Psephos]

52. cats at the Humane society

an excellent illustration of that quixotic mindset

:hi:

[DrDan]

55. you can characterize them any way you wish

but they vote - and they stand by their principles.

Denigrating them does nothing to bring in more votes - or even preserving the votes of the "base".

[TwilightGardener]

59. Well, are they voting for McCain? And why? I'm just going off the article.

[DrDan]

73. if they go anywhere away from Obama the percentages will shift

they do not necessarily have to shift to mccain. Maybe mccain. Maybe green. Maybe not voting. Maybe deciding on continued support of another Dem candidate - as a write-in.

If he loses support - the percentages shift.

[TwilightGardener]

75. Well, that would tell me that liberals don't mind the fact that they'll

never be in power and they'll always be a fringe group with no real seat at the table. Conservative nutcases (the far-right equivalent of the far left) don't necessarily care for McCain, but they know that if they get him elected, the way they got Doofus elected for 8 years, then they at least have a foot in the door and then a seat at the table. That's why McStupid can hang on to his base--they are pragmatists, not idealists. He's not their dreamboat, he's just a means to an end for them.

[DrDan]

76. mccain is doing things to hang on to his base

Obama is doing just the opposite

[TwilightGardener]

77. The assumption that Obama needs to defy conventional wisdom by

running leftward instead of embracing the center is massively flawed. The "base" of the Democratic party is not the far left. The far left is but one (vocal) part of the Democratic party. In fact, I'd argue that there IS no "base" to our party. We're a collection of various groups and interests and demographics. We have the Democrats in KY and WV who would never vote for a black guy (I mean, Obama was losing to Hillary 80-20 in many counties--come on), even though we're supposedly the party of civil rights and tolerance--are THEY the base? Is it the "lunch pail" ethnic Catholics who vote on economic issues, but are pro-life? What makes us Democratic? And for whatever reason, we're FAR more likely to jump ship and vote Republican than Repubs are likely to jump ship and vote for Democrats. People like Dem policies, for the most part, but they don't seem to like Dem candidates in general. People hate Republican policies, but seem to like Repub candidates. We need to examine these problems honestly, instead of assuming there's a simple answer like "Obama needs to embrace his base".

[DrDan]

143. you could draw a parallel argument about the GOP

It is also a very disparate party - with the evangelical Christian right on one side vs the moderates ala Specter and Snowe on the other. That loud evangelical right is but one part of the party - albeit a vocal one. There is also the NASCAR crowd, the military/authoritarian bunch, the elite wealthy, and the wealthy wannabe's. It is as different as the Dems. There are those there that would never consider voting for a vocal peace-lover - even though the majority in the U.S. favor an end to this debacle in Iraq.

The difference - as I see it - is that the GOP is an organized party. They are focused. They are willing to support the party's candidate - even though they have little to work with. They will hold their noses and vote R. The Dems are divided. Dean has not been effective in bringing the party together. He has allowed some party members to be disenfranchised (no I do not want to get back to the Fl/Mich argument - but I hold Dean as much at fault as I find the state leaders).

I think Obama's nomination came from young voters - and from the liberal side of the party. He has been working against that particular base since winning nomination. The party's division has allowed this to happen.

Just my view.

[Runcible Spoon]

162. thank you for being a voice of reason on this thread.

If Obama is losing voters, that is HIS fault in some way. People are free to vote any way they wish without being bulliedm or blamed about their choice. Honestly, people telling others they absolutely "OWE" their vote to Obama, how can they live with themselves if they vote Green, blah blah blah will have the exact opposite effect desired: some will get pissed off and go ahead and vote third party or not vote at all. Nobody has ever been guilt-tripped into voting; they might promise you one thing to your face but the minute they step ALONE into that booth, it is 100% free will.

[DrDan]

167. absolutely! To the point of writing in

a candidate if they are not pleased with their party's choice.

Why allow a party to dictate our nominee - we Dems should be doing that.

[enough already]

131. We have a winner n/t

[TooBigaTent]

49. The DLC wing of the party really likes selling out -- stupid fuckers. I would never vote for a puke

but that does not mean I am going to blindly support someone who does not come close to being even centrist.

[TwilightGardener]

62. Proving my point.

[Lorien]

88. No, you've got it backwards. The stupid fuckers are running the party

the rest of America just wants someone to represent US, not corporate interests and Republicans.

[Runcible Spoon]

164. you are easily one of the top 10 most vocal, most right-wing members on this board.

I think we know how your opinion is going to skew :eyes:

[Lorien]

86. No, he's losing them as likely voters. Many liberals I know are still on

the fence about voting at all because they see Obama as a moderate repug-which in many ways he is: http://www.politicalcompass.org/usprimaries2008 . these voters may stay home or vote third party on election day. McCain panders to his base while Obama panders to McCain's base. The DLC/ DNC really likes losing because they keep playing this same game year after year: take the base for granted, work to get right wing votes. It makes no fucking sense because there are more registered Democrats in America than repugs, and it's been proven a losing strategy time and time again. The DNC/ DLC loves to lose, not progressives. Progressives have been holding their noses and voting for non-progressive non-representation long enough. Let us vote FOR something instead of AGAINST the bad guys for once!

[Runcible Spoon]

163. fuckin' A Lorien.

:hug:

[barbtries]

117. if obama loses liberals

it won't be to mccain - exception being, perhaps, unhappy hillary-ites. i'm about as liberal as they come and if i chose not to vote for obama my vote would go elsewhere - NOT mccain. no more bush. i just don't believe this poll. it's a ruse. they're planning to steal the election again. i hated seeing this headline today.

[Roland99]

10. *cough*bullshit*cough*

[JCMach1]

12. Even if this is an outlier, follow the trend lines on the polls

virtually all polls over the last month have indicated a tightening race statistically.

Complacency is not a good option at this point...

[minnesota_liberal]

13. Another BS Poll

I don't believe it for a minute.

[No Elephants]

15. Keep donating and volunteering. We can do it. Obama is

the better candidate, but he has to sharpen his message and get it out. Also, this poll has to be an outlier.

[JCMach1]

17. From Politico.com-

Time to snap out of it... there's work to be done!



========================================
McCain leads Obama 46 to 41 percent among likely voters, which the poll found is outside the margin of error. Reuters/Zogby had Obama ahead by 7-points as recently as mid July.

McCain's resurgence comes at the doorstep of the Democratic Convention, and follows other polling that collectively indicates the presidential race has become a dead heat.

Only one major national survey, a USA Today/Gallup Poll in late July, has shown McCain ahead since the general election began in early June. But that 4-point McCain lead was the mirror opposite of other national surveys taken over the same period, leaving reasonable suspicion it was an outlier.

Today's Reuters/Zogby poll conducted from August 14 to 16, by contrast, seems to follow a recent trend in other surveys.

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll released Tuesday, and taken from August 15 to the 18, found that Obama's lead over McCain had fallen to within the margin of error, 45 to 43 percent. That same poll pegged Obama ahead by 12 points in mid June.


A more tepid shift was measured in another national poll taken from August 12 to 17 by Quinnipiac University. That survey had Obama leading 47 to 42 percent. However, the same poll in mid July had Obama leading McCain 50 to 41 percent.

The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press found, in a poll taken July 31 and August 10, that Obama was besting McCain by narrow margin of only 46 to 43 percent. Pew's mid July polling had Obama ahead by 5 points. In late June, Pew had Obama ahead by 8 points, 48 to 40 percent.

For the first time Tuesday McCain has also pulled ahead, though tenuously, in the Electoral College count, 274 to 264, according to the RealClearPolitics average of state polling that includes narrow leads in swing states. The shift occurred after Indiana—the home of Democratic vice presidential prospect Sen. Evan Bayh—switched to McCain's electoral coffer... http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12656.html

[OneBlueSky]

18. beginning of the setup . . .

the powers that be can not allow Obama to win this election . . . this looks like the beginning of setting Americans' expectations for a McCain win . . .

"it's not who votes that counts; it's who counts the votes" . . .

[JCMach1]

21. The 'pugs are just getting warmed-up

the time for patty-cake is over

[Captain Hilts]

41. There's no Pollster Conspiracy. Sorry. Zogby's actually a Dem. nt

[DuaneBidoux]

74. But he did call the election Kerry early in the evening if I remember 04

I have seen an awful lot of wrong polls come from him in the last four years

[Lorien]

83. Like Gore, Kerry won that election but had it stolen

I think Zogby's polls are fairly correct, but the republican voter theft operation is still chugging along.

[DuaneBidoux]

89. I do not believe the 04 election was stolen. The margin was not small enough and unlike Florida

the evidence has not been convincing for me.

[Duncan]

174. What did you make of the CNN exit poll results being changed

in a mathematically impossible fashion?

[Atman]

20. About the polls...they're for the network's promotional benefit, nothing more.

I just posted this on another thread...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6672003&mesg_id=6672103

.

[JCMach1]

23. I don't think so, please see post #17...

we are talking trends in public opinion at this point.

Forget what the exact numbers are... OBAMA HAS LOST GROUND

[Duncan]

30. Politico.com?

Underhanded corporate propoganda outlet.

[JCMach1]

35. I have posted many time about that...

but in this case, their analysis is correct...

[Odin2005]

25. Probably nothing more then a meaningless statistical hiccup. n/t.

[Captain Hilts]

42. That's entirely possible. It's a snapshot. Everybody relax.

Though it does follow the LATimes numbers, but we're better off waiting to react to this.

[Brotherjohn]

97. Completely agree. Show me another month of polls like this and I'll worry.

I'd bet money the next three national polls to be released still have Obama up front, and at least one by 5%.

[Brotherjohn]

108. SELF DELETE. (nt)

[ryanmuegge]

28. This has been a trend over the past month or so. It's foolish to dismiss it.

McCain is winning. Americans are stupid. I'm not surprised by this. Obama MUST, MUST, MUST, MUST, MUST win Virginia.

[WCGreen]

29. I agree...

Mudslinging works...

And the GOP is very effective in slinging the mud...

[JCMach1]

36. Exactly, never 'misunderestimate' the idiocy of the American Electorate

Do so at your peril.

[Nihil]

51. Yep ...

... they're so f*cking dumb that they might just go for the hat-trick.

Now *that* is a depressing thought for the rest of the world to chew over ...

[still_one]

71. If I was to look at the beginning of the year I would ask how come mccain has been trending down?

[ryanmuegge]

135. True, but that doesn't matter, does it? It only matters how he compares with Obama.

The election isn't going to be a longitudinal thing. He will either win on that day at that moment or lose against Obama. Right now, and for the past month, McCain has been picking up steam against Obama.

[Duncan]

31. BULLSHIT!

[Doug.Goodall]

37. Since both Obama and McCain are the 'presumptive nominee', just what doe these polls mean?

They are predicting an outcome based on not one, but two separate events that have not even taken place yet.

If we were going by the polls from a year ago, the contest would be between Clinton and Giuliani.

I only believe polls that show my guy ahead, all the rest are pure bunk.

[Delphinus]

44. I just don't, don't, don't

understand how people can think that McCain is a good choice. I am so disappointed in my fellow Americans.

[ejbr]

46. This trend does not demostrate that McCain is a better candidate,

rather that Americans are fucking idiots.

[radfringe]

48. means obama has to fight back and fight back hard

taking the high road and talking about issues is all well and good - but the repubs are all about fear and smear soundbites.

unfortunately, the average voter bases his/her vote on soundbites

dirt works - obama has to use it and alot of it

two ideas:

1. clip of mccain saying he will hunt bin-laden to the gates of hell, followed by a clip of mccain bashing obama for saying he (obama) would go into pakistan to get bin-laden. tag line - McCain would go to the gates of hell but won't go into pakistan

2. opens with cloeup of book The Gulag Archipelago, book opens to page and person starts reading outloud - then it becomes a back-forth between reading the passage and mccain speaking

"Along with other prisoners, he worked in the fields day after day, in rain and sun, during summer and winter. His life appeared to be nothing more than backbreaking labor and slow starvation. The intense suffering reduced him to a state of despair.

On one particular day, the hopelessness of his situation became too much for him. He saw no reason to continue his struggle, no reason to keep on living. His life made no difference in the world. So he gave up."


"One night, after being mistreated as a POW, a guard loosened the ropes binding me, easing my pain."


Leaving his shovel on the ground, he slowly walked to a crude bench and sat down. He knew that at any moment a guard would order him to stand up, and when he failed to respond, the guard would beat him to death, probably with his own shovel. He had seen it happen to other prisoners.

As he waited, head down, he felt a presence. Slowly he looked up and saw a skinny old prisoner squat down beside him. The man said nothing. Instead, he used a stick to trace in the dirt the sign of the Cross. The man then got back up and returned to his work.


On Christmas, that same guard approached me, and without saying a word, he drew a cross in the sand.


As Solzhenitsyn stared at the Cross drawn in the dirt his entire perspective changed. He knew he was only one man against the all-powerful Soviet empire. Yet he knew there was something greater than the evil he saw in the prison camp, something greater than the Soviet Union. He knew that hope for all people was represented by that simple Cross. Through the power of the Cross, anything was possible.


We stood, wordlessly, looking at the cross, remembering the true light of Christmas. I'll never forget that no matter where you are, no matter how difficult the circumstances, there will always be someone who will pick you up."

[JCMach1]

54. I agree with most of what you said-- not just the 'high' road though

McCain's thugs have taken the gloves off.

[radfringe]

69. think you misunderstood

or I'm mis-writing... lol

ennywhoo - what I mean to say is that while the "high road" is all well and good - it's not going to work in this election. obama needs to take his gloves off and put on some brass knuckles

[JCMach1]

150. :)

never misunderestimate an American's ability to read way tooooo fast

[radfringe]

152. ;)

and being on the high road does have the advantage of gravity -- dirt moves downhill faster than uphill.. ;)

[kiranon]

102. Needs to get tougher and point out McCain's shortcomings

Negative ads work. There is so much negative about McCain and that needs to be broadcast day after day. McCain is less than zero on the economic front and that needs to be stressed. Sound bites work and nuanced language goes over the heads of most listeners.

[radfringe]

107. when you are on the high road

you have gravity working for you

makes the dirt roll downhill faster... :rofl:

[Highway61]

111. Good stuff

I agree big time...maybe you could email these to the Obama campaign....can't hurt

[Maryland Liberal]

50. One poll does not mean anything

Have a little faith in Obama people...

[JCMach1]

57. Not just one poll, but the trend does...

What it says to the Obama people is that 'you' have lost ground the last month.

[madrchsod]

53. oh no it`s over.....

throw in the towel....you got to hand it to barack...he fought a good fight but clear lack of ring inexperience lead to his loss....

[TwilightGardener]

60. Sarcasm?

[madrchsod]

114. john makes alan keyes look and sound like a genuis

if barack can`t beat john by 55-60% and the majority of the states then we are fucked..worse than we are now

[Virginia Dare]

56. A stronger manager of the economy?

we're talking about the same John McCain aren't we? The guy who admitted he doesn't really know much about economics but he has Greenspan's book?

Where did they find the people for this poll, at a Toby Keith concert?

[truebrit71]

58. I call bullshit...70% of the country think we're on the wrong track, but McBush is the right guy...

...to change that? I don't think so.

The pollsters and the M$M are keeping it artificially tight so that they have something to squablle over for the next 76 days, and it will be easier to steal if it's "close".

Let me tell you something, it ain't EVEN close...I have spoken to dyed-in-the-wool republicans who are so disgusted with what has been going on this past 7 1/2 years that they are not only NOT voting for a republican they are voting FOR a Democrat...

Whilst we cannot be complacent, and we must not let up or lose focus, we are going to win in a landslide come November, and the presstitutes will fall all over themsleves with superlatives describing McCain's historic collapse rather than face the fact that WE the people have finally had enough and voted to end the catasrophic reign of the worst policies ever enacted upon the American people...

[barbtries]

128. thank you.

good to know i'm not alone in my thinking.

[FatDave]

61. It's really simple people. McCain's been attacking while Barack's been slacking.

Obama took a much deserved vacation last week, and McCain took the opportunity to relentlessly attack non-stop. Attacks work because somewhere between 50% and 60% of the American populace is fucking morons. This is now reflected in the polls.

Now Obama's back from vacation, the convention is coming up, and it appears he's choosing the best fighter for his VP. We haven't had a single debate yet, and McCain is blowing his attack wad early. It would be a wise strategy for Obama to play it cool until after the convention, then bring it home by ripping into McCain with a smile.

But he's got to rip into him at some point. Failure to do so will cost us another election.

[JCMach1]

63. Converntion is going to be tough-- especially if things reinforce

what McCain was saying in his attacks.

It only emphasizes the importance of the VP choice... I think that this is probably the singly most important VP decision since Kennedy chose Johnson.

[RaRa]

79. Absolutely!

People are stupid, and they're buying McCain's negative crap. Obama HAS to go on the serious attack!

[NJCher]

103. maybe

But supposing the guy was going to take a vacation to recharge his batteries. The best time to do it would be before the convention because he will regain almost automatically after that. Then he can continue the momentum.

He's a human, not an automaton. If he felt he needed to take a week off, I can respect that, especially if he's strategic about it, which I think he was.



Cher

[FatDave]

113. I agree

He did deserve the vacation, probably needed it more than any of us can imagine, and he took it at the exact right time. I imagine he was fully aware that McCain would seize the opportunity to attack without fear of reprisal.

I really only used the word "slacking" for the rhyme. :)

[JCMach1]

144. I agree about the vacation timing... However, politics is the art of the possible

What lies ahead is a convention and a VP choice that changes the story, changes the lead MAYBE

[OwnedByFerrets]

64. Whether correct or not, NEGATIVE CAMPAIGNING WORKS!!

Everyone says they hate it, but dammit, it works.

[still_one]

65. Gee, Quinnipiac has Obama up by +5. mccain has lost traction since the beginning of the year

[harun]

66. Expect more of these BS polls

Notice on CNN.com they run the article heading of "Ticker: Polls show bad news for Obama" and when McCain was down by 10 they ran things like Obama should be ahead by more. Never a word about "Bad news for McCain".

[zeemike]

68. The whole point of this is to get progressives to believe

That it is a close race, so they will not be too upset when Mc Same takes office.
And it seems to be working on liberals.

[still_one]

70. BULL!!! NO WAY. There are more people affected negatively in the last 8 years

then positively by the bush policies

mccain is an extension of those policies, and not only will he lose, but the Democrats will take back Congress

Women are NOT going to vote their rights away through mccain
The young are NOT going to vote for endless war, and mccain's pseudo draft
The poor and the middle class are not better off than they were 8 years ago, and they are NOT going to vote for mcbush

Maybe one should ask HOW COME mccain has lost so much traction since the beginning of the year?

[zeemike]

155. I did not say they would not vote for Obama

The way they voted for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004
But bush was inaugurated anyway and we accepted it.

[oasis]

72. The more Condi and Bush piss off Russia, the higher McCain's numbers will climb. (n/t)

[scarface2004]

78. looks like the repukes have taken over reuters

need to cross them off the list...what assholes!!

[michreject]

80. Do the pollsters sample between 9 and 5

If so, change the poll time to after 5 PM. I'm sure you'll get a different results.

Between 9 and 5, most people are working and can't answer a phone call from pollsters. For the most part, what kind of people are home during daytime hours?

[2KS2KHonda]

84. Unemployed, pre-school and retired.

:shrug:

[Khaotic]

81. Time to Clown McSame

Not surprising, the rethugs are getting major results w/ the negative ads they’re playing. No one is really holding them accountable, and we knew this would happen.

While they’re making shit up, we don’t have to.

It’s time for the DNC and the Obama campaign to dig in and get nasty. Bring the shit to light that’s been making our stomachs turn for the past 8 years.



I mean ... WTF?

This doesn’t have to mean that Obama has to become The Rock and talk a bunch of smack, but we know he can bring it. He brought it against Hillary and now it’s expected for him to clown McSame hardcore.

I think a lot of the slip that’s happening right now is that the fight has already gone to the school yard and the DNC and Obama campaign retaliation has been ... “why are we fighting here,” “get back in the ring,” “come now sport … Marquis of Queensbury rules you know.”



WTF?!!

This is gonna get dirty and the Obama campaign can’t looked shocked and dismayed when the opposition’s first move is to pull your pants down, kick ya in the nuts, and throw sand in your face.



What do you do in retalition you ask?

Break his knee caps, turn around and back hand his mom, have your supporters drop kick his friends, and turn around to accept the cheers from the crowd.



Don’t think for a second that people aren’t waiting to see if Obama has what it takes to “bring it” or if he’ll just be another Democrat who will stamp his feet and say things are unfair.

Is America stupid enough to vote for another 4 years of Bush through McSame?



... Yep, you bet ya.

The electoral map is going right back to ‘00 and ‘04 w/ the only exceptions being IA, NM, and VA.

It’s already past time for Obama to use the 50+ million he’s collecting each month in contributions and lay the hardcore smack down on McSame and the pathetic GOP greed mongers.

My guess is that Obama and the DNC want to stay positive up and through the national convention, but then …

We know where this got us in ‘04. We know the GOP isn’t waiting until their convention.

The Democratic National Convention is just days away, so I guess this pussy footing around thing will have to due until the convention is over.

I don’t know though … in the past the GOP has made their convention a crescendo of negative raw meat rabidness. In ‘04 they couldn’t say the word nine-eleven enough and people were foaming at the mouth about Kerry’s 3 purple stars as they wore their little band-aids w/ a mini-purple star on them.



It was sick to see a supposed Democrat, Zell Miller, foam at the mouth and tear apart Kerry. The raw meat was ridiculous.



And we damn well know that fucking Joe Lieberman will be this year's Zell Miller, bought and paid for by the GOP.



Mark these words … it will be more of the same this year times 10.

People are broken down, they’re fed up, they’re pissed off, DNC … we’re ready to f’n fight! Time for our own raw meat! Time to tell it like it is!



For those who don’t agree maybe you should join the Green Party. Time to speak up America ...

[TwilightGardener]

133. Love your post. I want to know why WE don't have a Zell Miller for

our convention. Who's our Zell/Lieberman, to show the world that McShame is so disgraceful that even a fellow Repub can't vote for him?

[Khaotic]

151. I thought ...

That there's a whole pile of republicans who support Obama.



How about one of those?

The real point is that we need to throw off the gloves and realize that this fight is taking place in a school yard and give up the notion that anyone is playing by any rules.

I'm not saying there's any room for total verbal anarchy, but this administration and its party have really messed things up. It's not as if there's not plenty of legitimate ammo to hit them with.

Where's the talk about civil rights, the shredding of the constitution, the countless appointments of cronies, the disappearance of government accountability, government secrets, and on and on???

Why don't I see the soundbytes of McSame from '04 tossing aside the begging masses asking him to go independent? Why don't I hear the soundbytes of McSame embracing the GOP and telling us that he'll always be a dyed-in-the-wool republican?

Don't we have soundbytes of McSame saying one thing in '02 then turning around and saying another thing in '08?

Doesn't the DNC or the Obama campaign have the ability to edit two soundbytes together?

Come on people.

We know that the ammo is laying around the field begging for us to use it. McSame should be 20 points behind Obama. It should be pretty blatant where the hold outs are and where the deep red states will always be deep red states, but we're letting them define this ... letting them define Obama.

People can understand their rights, they can understand the need to be able to eat safe food. They don't want government to regulate their lives, but they sure as hell don't want their food to go unregulated. Why aren't we spelling it out how far deregulation has gone under the Bush administration??? How much the Bush administration has gutted the FDA and the EPA???

We might not be able to get Joe Sixpack to understand the significance of Blackwater and the profiteering in the war, but we should be able to get them to care about the food they're ingesting and feeding to their kids.

WTF?

[marias23]

87. GO NEGATIVE OR LOOSE

GO NEGATIVE OR LOOSE
I am really sorry to say this - but the Republicans will destroy Obama with a campaign of a thousand cuts true or false. This is their gang’s turf.
GO NEGATIVE OR LOOSE

[Lorien]

90. Go Left or lose. I think that's what's really going on here

more abandoning of the base and taking Democrats for granted.

"Given the choice between a Republican and a Democrat who acts like one, the people will choose the Republican every time". True fifty years ago, just as true today.

[MilesColtrane]

98. I have to disagree.

Loose is a bad look for anybody but David Byrne.

[Khaotic]

99. Their Gang's Turf

You're baked dude.

While they're making shit up, our version of negative will be simply telling the truth.

But hell ... it doesn't seem like Obama is even up for that.

Time to tell it like it is!

[Lena inRI]

129. LOSE NOT LOOSE. . LEARN TO SPELL . DAMN IT!

. . .lose=not to win

. . .loose=opposite of tight

:eyes: :eyes: :eyes: :eyes: :eyes:

[Dollface]

91. Just goes to show, you can't fix stupid...

[Bake]

94. This is what happens when you're totally absent for a week.

Obama goes on vacation (didn't Kerry go skiing in the middle of his campaign, by the way?) and allows McCain to totally hammer him with no response whatsoever.

Say what you will. If I were the candidate, there is no way in hell I'd be taking a freaking vacation two and a half months before the convention.

Bake

[trumad]

96. Boo

[LSK]

100. I agree it was the vacation, however its only a temporary bump in the road

[Bake]

105. I hope you're right.

But it means he's got to make up ground now, instead of widening his lead.

It was a stupid, stupid thing to do.

Bake

[YvonneCa]

101. It's not the one poll, 'snapshot of time' that worries me. It's...

...what the media does with it. They will play it up for WEEKS...and that, IMO, helps McCain.

[pilar007]

156. There you go...

They will beat this to death. Every situation is geared to negatively reflect on Obama. It continues. They will play McCain's ads repeatedly, and discuss it ad infinitem. Its the media that frames every situation negatively for Obama. I want to relax and believe that Obama has this down...but it's freakin' me out.

[smoogatz]

104. Obama needs to go for the throat.

I've been watching this process for a long time, and it's pretty clear to me that voters gravitate toward the guy who seems to be delivering the tougher message. To some extent presidential electoral politics is just a big pissing match, and the guy who's best at identifying his opponent's weaknesses (real or imagined) and reducing them to easy, emotional sound-bites is likely to win in the end. Americans want a president who's perceived as tough--not some wimp who lets the other guy slap them around.

[Celebration]

121. you are SO RIGHT ON!!

He absolutely has to define the conversation--and call McCain on every single misstep.

[TwilightGardener]

136. Better strong and wrong than wimpy and correct.

[smoogatz]

145. The playground rules apply, unfortunately.

It's about dominance.

[bagrman]

106. After 00 and the 04 votes why does anyone think we have open and free elections?

If the Neocons own and control the press, it's not surprising or a stretch to think that they control the polls. And if the only polls that reaches the sheeple, then who are they to think that the election was rigged when ( I can't even type his name) wins their states by, guess what the same percentage as the polls predicted. This is despite the fact that the exit polls show the opposite to be true, and the exit polls are what is used world wide to gauge if an election is free and open. Makes no sense to me.

Latr

[radfringe]

109. real clear politics - all the polls in one place

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

General Election: McCain vs. Obama
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 08/04 - 08/19 -- 44.9 43.7 Obama +1.2
LA Times/Bloomberg 08/15 - 08/18 1248 RV 45 43 Obama +2
Reuters/Zogby 08/14 - 08/16 1089 LV 41 46 McCain +5
Rasmussen Tracking 08/17 - 08/19 3000 LV 47 46 Obama +1
Gallup Tracking 08/16 - 08/18 2648 RV 45 44 Obama +1
Quinnipiac 08/12 - 08/17 1547 LV 47 42 Obama +5
Battleground 08/10 - 08/14 1000 LV 46 47 McCain +1
IBD/TIPP 08/04 - 08/09 856 RV 43 38 Obama +5

[Brotherjohn]

110. People, calm DOWN! A) It's clearly (and by definition) an outlier until backed up by other polls...

...and B) He's been on vacation!

McCain's had center stage. We've also had the Olympics. This is the doldroms of summer.

Wait until the Convention. Wait until the Veep choice(s). Wait until Obama faces off against McCain (IMHO he's going to eat him for lunch).

[Dollface]

159. Thanks. I needed that. Just slap me if I get hysterical again.

[barbtries]

115. i don't believe it.

i never believed gw's ridiculous numbers - everyone i talked to always knew he was terrible. i think they're fixing the polls and that's another step in fixing the election. the hardest thing to overcome it seems is the slanted media and their bullshit. pisses me off.

[stubtoe]

127. Smells like slanted media polls to me too, barb.

Hillary was correct all along. There IS a vast right-wing conspiracy; and it owns the msm.

[inanna]

140. I don't believe it either.

Smells like complete bullshit to me.

[hasssan1]

116. CALL OBAMA OFFICE AND ASK HIM TO GET TOUGH [phone]

I am so mad and i can't even tell you. I have been saying to that Obama campaign is too SOFT and POSITIVE. Mclam ass wipe is been so negetive and nasty and it's taking toll on Obama. Please call Obama office and ask him to get tough and go negative on Mclame.

Call this Number : [phone]


The campaign person said that they will take it to consideration if enough people calls.

I promise if Obama keeps going this soft he will loose this election. If obama don't fight back hard , we will see the same disaster as 2004. That's a big fucking problem with dems b/c they don't get dirty and nasty like reps and we won't win WH till we change the way we campaign.

[Highway61]

118. I, for one

can tell you that I work in a medical practice and 98% of the people I work with there are NOT for Obama. I am pinching myself as I thought many of these folks had some sense of smarts.
Many of them live paycheck to paycheck. Oh, they give all kinds of reasons... "big government shouldn't be allowed", Obama is a Muslim and (here's a good one...and I quote) "If we had universal health care you might as well hand over 90% of your paycheck"...
I kid you not...it is like talking to wooden heads...and in my heart of hearts I KNOW they don't want a black president. Racism is alive and well in this country and they don't care who knows it. It is very sad and makes me feel sick and ashamed to even have to be civil and work with these people day in and day out.
Obama campaign needs to kick it up a few notches and get angry and even...and I'm hoping they will do just that.

[TwilightGardener]

137. That's RW talk radio. Obama has about ten national hosts who are

broadcast across the country, in every city, who do nothing but tear him down--there is NO equivalent to this for McCain--he gets positive coverage in all media, plus he has Fox. In Nebraska, you don't get anything OTHER than the RW viewpoint, not just Limpballs, but our local stations as well. One local host on KFAB in Omaha calls Obama the "George Soros Creation". So does Obama have a prayer in areas that are only served by media like this? Of course not.

[LuckyLib]

157. Huge numbers of folks are uninformed, uninterested, stupid, racist,

and the MSM is playing the tune corporate America is paying for. I keep telling myself I don't know folks who aren't disgusted with the Republicans. Then I remind myself that I live in rarified atmosphere. Don't think I could stand working each day with nimrods who come up with the stuff you describe. Hang in there!

:yourock:

[Highway61]

158. Thanks...

I keep giving what I can to the Obama campaign....however, I really did think people were smarter than this where I work...that scares the crap out of me....

[AngryOldDem]

119. How much of a bounce did McCain get from Saturday's evangelical lovefest?

While I respect Zogby over other polls, I take this with a huge grain of salt, as I do all presidential polls this time of year.

[Unsane]

120. If John "I don't know much about the economy" McCain has a 9 pt edge, then Obama isn't doing his job

NO WAY should McCain be viewed as a stronger manager of the economy. That is ridiculous.

[ryanmuegge]

138. It's the corporate distraction machine and the apathetic, ignorant American public.

It's not right to blame Obama. He's trying everything, but logic and substance are notoriously not very effective when trying to appeal to American voters. It's hard to believe for us on the left, but it appears to be true. There isn't too much Obama can do to combat the cable news saying, "John McCain singlehandedly won the war in Iraq because of his support of the 'Surge' and his POW experience; and, oh yeah, he's got a great idea to lower oil prices; he's going to fight big oil and cut your taxes; he's not at all like Bush and the other Republicans."

[AtLiberty]

125. Ahh...the stage is set for election fraud

The election could easily be stolen with McCain trailing...remember aWol's poll numbers in 2004?

Today's poll feeds the national perception that McCain is actually a tough contender. Facts are pointless. Only the perception is necessary.

It's easy to flip the results electronically. Now all they need to do is continuing purging Democratic voters and the White House is "theirs" again.

[Seedersandleechers]

126. Stupid Fucking Americans

Time to start checking out property in New Zealand

[2Design]

132. media is at it again - brainwash the masses into believing this crap n/t

[no limit]

134. This reminds me of that one day Clinton took the lead during the primaries

whatever happened after that? I forget.

[yurbud]

139. Do Republican candidates take vacation during the campaign?

[Doremus]

142. No, they just take off every weekend. nt

[Stuart G]

141. This poll means nothing..compare to a horse race with them going into the back stretch

Any poll now is worthless. In horse races, as they turn into the back stretch, it means nothing.
,,,, Polls at this stage don't mean much. Forget it.

[dysfunctional press]

146. the REAL repuke nominee and next potus will be the one who mcbane is told to name as a running mate.

my guess is romney.
and after mcbane steps aside for health reasons AFTER the stolen selection, jeb bush will be the new veep.

how's THAT for a scary-nario?

[rollin74]

147. Obama has waited too long to fight back

taking the high road doesn't work

he's finally starting to go on the offensive and attack McCain for the past couple of days. That needs to continue in earnest for the rest of the campaign.

Unfortunately, negative ads and distortions win presidential elections

[Stuart G]

149. I do not think it is too long..There are still more than 2 months left to

give it to MC BUSH IN a way that they have never seen. That .."my friends will be something to see and hear...."

[hasssan1]

148. CALL OBAMA OFFICE AND ASK HIM TO GET TOUGH [phone]

CALL HIM ASK HIM TO FIGHT BACK HARD AND NASTY. STOP BEING NICE AND SIFT IT WON'T NEVER WORK AGAINST REPUBS.

[depakid]

153. "a stronger manager of the economy"

I guess it wasn't too smart to have let all those stupid statements back in June and July slide by the wayside....

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

154. Obama needs to do what the Clinton did in '92

Everytime the Bushitters launched a smear they came back with a quick response. Don't let your opponents define you.

[redistributer]

160. This is an outlier

Polls such as NBC and CBS released today still show Obama up by 3%.

[SMC Beck]

161. New Dynamics in Direction of Campaign

Barak Obama should call John McCain's bluff and actually ask
all Democrats back to Washington to meet on the issue of
energy.  Use this meeting to present the Obama Plan for
alternative energy; Obama should turn McCain's "Drill
here, drill now" (suggesting continued reliance on oil)
to the Obama challenge, "Change here, change now"
and emphasize the urgency for alternative energy development.
The U.S. should take the lead in breaking with the
stranglehold oil has on all nations; and, based on McCain's
history, put forth the notion "Hero by chance, deception
and betrayal by choice."

[fujiyama]

166. What's with the Zogby love on this board?

People take his word like he's god. In fact, he hasn't been all that accurate the last few cycles. Sometimes he's dead on. Often times, he's no better than any other pollster, perhaps worse.

Here's the real deal:

Obama has lost some momentum and some ground to McCain in the last month or so...partly due to negative ads, partly due to timing (of his vacation and the events that unfolded in Georgia). For some unknown reason, people believe McCCain is "experienced". Nevermind, his experience has helped lead the country to this war we're stuck in. But it's "experience" nevertheless.

McCain has spent a LOT of money in battleground states, basically to get it even again. Obama still has the edge. And he can still win. But playing defense is not a winning strategy. I heard he's released some harder hitting ads in some states. Maybe that will help. I haven't seen them though.

His VP choice will matter as will the convention. I hope it's not someone terribly dull. Personally, I'm rooting for Biden or Hillary. Both can hit the right back hard. Bayh will bore. Sebelius? Seems like a decent governor of a state Obama hasn't a chance in. And that risks looking like a slap in the face to Hillary supporters. Not a good move.

[pokercat999]

168. Individual voter polls and their actual votes on a

national pool matter not. What does matter is the state by state voting since the election is actually decided by the ELECTORAL COLLEGE. Which states the candidate wins is much more important that how he does on a popular overall vote.

True that a total vote may be a WEAK indication of how the candidate is doing but it's state by state that is really critical.

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[robcon]

170. The poll of state-by-state is not going well either. But it's only August

Current Projections - as of August 21, 2008

Electoral Votes:
John McCain 274
Barack Obama 264

Popular Vote:
Barack Obama 50.52%
John McCain 48.4

http://www.electionprojection.com/president08.shtml

The election, however is not in August. Obama will get a 10 point boost from the convention, which will carry him into the presidency.

[No Elephants]

172. Don't despair or be an ostrich. Donate, volunteer.