Newsmax/Zogby Poll: Clinton Up 10 Points; Beats Margin of Error

[Hope And Change]

Source: Zogby

Released: April 22, 2008

Newsmax/Zogby Poll: Clinton Up 10 Points; Beats Margin of Error


UTICA, New York – New York's Hillary Clinton continued to pull away from rival Barack Obama of Illinois as the campaigning in Pennsylvania ended and voters prepared to cast ballots today, the latest Newsmax/Zogby daily telephone tracking poll shows.

She now leads Obama, 51% to 41%, having gained three points over the past 24 hours as Obama lost one point, pushing her beyond the poll's margin of error to create a statistically significant lead for the first time in the Pennsylvania daily tracking poll.

Meanwhile, 6% remained undecided and another 3% said they preferred someone else in the two-day tracking poll. It was conducted April 20-21, 2008, using live operators working out of Zogby's on-site call center in Upstate New York, included 675 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. It carries a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.



Read more: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1487

[Mojambo]

1. If Newsmax says it, you can lock it down. n/t

[Journeyman]

2. I heard a rumor there's another poll planned for Tuesday. . .

think I'll wait and see what the results are for that, then maybe draw a conclusion or three.

[FVZA_Colonel]

3. That seems like just too rapid a break over just one day.

Let's wait and see.

[truthisfreedom]

4. The rove/limbaugh mafia rethugs are absolutely RABID to influence this election.

Tell me about the voting machines.

[Politicalboi]

5. You look at

Obama's rallies and they are packed. You see Hillary's rallies and plenty of seating available. And a lot of people have cell phones so they aren't polled.

[Tunkamerica]

6. I'm almost 30 and I know only one person that has a land line

that is younger than me. I haven't had a land line since I was 22. And...I've never been polled, though that isn't necessarily connected. These polls are flawed because of their collection methods.

[juajen]

10. I've had a landline for longer than you;'ve been born, and I've never been polled.

Nt

[regnaD kciN]

7. Two points...

1) Rallies don't mean all that much -- the same situation occurred in Texas, and Obama lost the popular vote there. I also remember that some of the biggest rallies I've heard of in the past were for Dukakis in '88 (I witnessed one of them in Seattle) and McGovern in '72. They wound up meaning nothing in the long run.

2) The "cell-phone fallacy" was repeatedly invoked prior to the 2004 general, and didn't pan out there, either. Pollsters have found that people of a given demographic group with only cell phones tend to break exactly like their counterparts with land lines. When they poll, they get a certain-sized sample of each demographic group, and then scale them according to what percentage of the electorate is made up of that group. It isn't just as simple as calling X-hundred random numbers, and printing the results.

Zogby has been far-from-reliable this cycle. By contrast, the SUSA poll (which is generally rated quite highly for accuracy) found that Obama had cut his deficit from 14 points to 6 over the past week. But it has been a common phenomenon for undecideds to break for Clinton -- the more familiar candidate -- in the final days of a campaign, so it will probably happen here as well. While a lot depends on the relative turnout in different areas of PA, I'd say that the final result could be anywhere from the mid-single-digits to the mid-teens. While it would be good news for Obama to cut the final deficit to under 10, it should be remembered that, only a few weeks ago, he was trailing in PA by anywhere from 18 to 26 points. Even if the final margin is 12 to 14, that's still nowhere near the landslide Clinton will need to have any chance at a comeback.

[auburngrad82]

8. Newsmax. The right wing rag from hell... nt

[jmowreader]

9. There's a reason someone posted this in LBN, correct?

Oh, I know! There's no Absolute Bullshit!!! forum, which is what anything with "NewsMax" on it is.