Stock Watch Thread #1 July 24, 2003

[JNelson6563]

Thursday, July 24 , 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 546
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 254
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 226 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 284 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 126
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 610
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 0
Other Arrests of Execs = 53


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS
INDICATORS>

]NASDAQ FUTURES...........S&P FUTURES



AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 23, 2003
Dow 9194.24 +35.79 (+0.39%)
Nasdaq 1,719.18 +13.08 (+0.77%)
S&P 500 988.61 +0.50 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.102% -0.048

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DOW......NASDAQ......S&P (auto-update, hit
refresh/reload)


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details &

links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more,
are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other
actionsCitizens For Legitimate Government
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[Maeve]

1. Good morning! Cheerful news on the job front

Jobless claims at five-month low
Number falls below 400,000 for first time since February; spokesman cautions about volatility.
July 24, 2003: 8:35 AM EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans lodging new jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since February, the government said Thursday in a report showing surprising strength in the long-depressed U.S. job market.

The level of new claims, which gives an early reading on the resilience of the job market, plunged by 29,000 to 386,000 in the July 19 week, down from a revised 415,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
However, this is one of the most often revised figures and is especially volatile during the summer months.

[JNelson6563]

4. that is happy news

as you say though we can expect revisions. If it survives one or two of these maybe it will inspire a little hope. A long shot, but maybe.

Julie

[joshcryer]

2. Prediction.

Sell-offs.

Dow -120
Nasdaq -60

[JNelson6563]

5. feeling bear-ish this morn?

Considering the volatility, your prediction has as good a shot as any.

Julie

[JNelson6563]

3. Puplava's Wrap-up

It is this excess capacity that is depressing prices leaving business with little pricing power. It is cutting into profit margins so businesses are looking for more ways to cut costs to offset declining profit margins. This means more payroll reductions. Moreover, in addition to slashing payrolls many businesses are moving service and manufacturing operations overseas. Of the 2.5 million jobs lost since 2000 many of those jobs have now been exported overseas. This means they are not coming back. According to Gartner Inc. by 2004 more than 80 percent of U.S. executives will have discussed offshore sourcing with about 40 percent of U.S. companies to have completed some kind overseas outsourcing project. Companies have been moving manufacturing facilities overseas for decades now. What’s new today is that many high level service functions are also leaving our border. The New York Times reported yesterday that execs at IBM are now looking at plans to accelerate its outsourcing effort. Outsourcing is particularly strong within the tech industry where companies from Intel, Dell, Cisco and now IBM are moving service operations to India, China, Russia and the Philippines. Technology companies are leading the way in the exodus of high paid service jobs to overseas.

As more jobs are lost the consumer consumption bubble could come to an abrupt end, especially if interest rates continue to rise as they are now. In all of the policy debates about a new boom and recovery I have yet to hear a clear argument other than wishful thinking how unemployed workers can support America’s economy through debt based consumption. It is one reason why this has been a jobless recovery. There have been no useful measures proposed that would solve this dilemma. The problem for the U.S. is that we have substituted consumption for production in our political and economic polices. The result is that we have become a debt based malinvested economy. The American economy now runs on debt, consumption and paper asset bubbles financed by foreign debt. These imbalances will eventually be corrected either through a change in policy, or more likely by the discipline of the markets.

In the meantime the Fed seems to have readjusted its focus to recreating another asset bubble in the financial markets, especially the stock market. It may have directly intervened in the markets at key support levels to support the markets and put a floor directly underneath it. There has been talk about the “Greenspan put” referring to lower interest rates as keeping a floor underneath the market. However, the resilience of the market over these last four months given anemic earnings and economic news may show signs that the Fed is taking a more direct interest in the outcome of the stock market. Reinflating a stock market bubble may be part of the Fed’s new policy to resurrect a moribund business sector. Resurrecting a stock market bubble could accomplish temporarily several key political and economic objectives as follows:

* Reignite the merger and takeover game
* Rekindle the IPO market
* Reboot stock options and turn those options into consumption
* Increase tax revenues for government through capital gain taxes
* Keep consumer confidence and consumption high

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Political AND economic objectives eh? Go figure! I don't think it will work long-term but that's me. I mean, bubbles are transparent, we can see through them, even if it takes a while, no?

Julie

[Maeve]

6. Another voice questioning the PPT

"In the meantime the Fed seems to have readjusted its focus to recreating another asset bubble in the financial markets, especially the stock market. It may have directly intervened in the markets at key support levels to support the markets and put a floor directly underneath it"

From the basic idea of protecting the market from plunges to out-right manipulation? Who'da thunk it? :crazy:

[JNelson6563]

7. and they thought we were crazy

conspiracy nut-jobs. haha

With Fischer the Fixer gone Green-man's gotta do more of the dirty work I guess, eh? ;-)

Julie

[Maeve]

8. 9:32 up and at 'em!

Dow 9,229.18 +34.94 (+0.38%)
Nasdaq 1,732.46 +13.28 (+0.77%)
S&P 500 992.30 +3.69 (+0.37%)

[JNelson6563]

9. Could be quite a day!

But then again, one never knows....

Bright sunny start anyway!

Julie

[Maeve]

10. 9:56 and holding up slightly

Nasdaq doing better than the other indices.

Dow 9,224.28 +30.04 (+0.33%)
Nasdaq 1,730.10 +10.92 (+0.64%)
S&P 500 991.88 +3.27 (+0.33%

[Maeve]

11. 10:07 and zoom!

I suspect that some regular "buy" programs kick in around 10 am--waiting for the initial positioning and then taking a position.

Dow 9,270.71 +76.47 (+0.83%)
Nasdaq 1,738.82 +19.64 (+1.14%)
S&P 500 997.41 +8.80 (+0.89%)

[sujan]

12. unemployment @ 6.4%

What the hell?

I thought it was 6.0% just two months ago.

[Maeve]

13. You missed the revision of data!

Seriously, the unemployment rate has risen the past few months (see chart in this story Dark clouds in the Fed's silver lining)
"But look closely, and you'll see there are some dark linings to those silver clouds: namely, that job growth won't pick up for quite some time, and that prices will stay dangerously low -- no matter how strong economic growth is in the next several months"

[Coventina]

14. The "I Ching" on today's market

Today's reading is SHOCKING changing to INNOCENCE.

SHOCKING does not have to be a bad thing. Ching is just predicting that something major is going to disrupt the current state of events. Howver, the changing line for today states, "You cannot make any progress under the circumstances." The message of INNOCENCE is to examine your motives, and make sure they are pure.

I think that last part was directed toward me and has to do with a conversation I had with my father last night about the Iraq mess. I've come to realize that I've been sort of basking in a horrible delight over the FUBAR situation Bush has gotten himself into. Well, I've come to realize that this is not just Bush's problem. It's America's problem. He's the POS that got us into it, but what are we going to do now? Gloating doesn't help the Iraqis. ANYWAY, this navel-gazing doesn't belong in this thread, my apologies.

Everyone have a good day and watch out for that shocking event!
:hi:

[JNelson6563]

16. I wonder what it could be

and no worries on the rant, we all share your frustration dear.

Shocking, eh? Hmmm.

Julie

[Maeve]

15. 10:58 and down from the morning's highs

But still up there

Dow 9,243.89 +49.65 (+0.54%)
Nasdaq 1,732.31 +13.13 (+0.76%)
S&P 500 994.73 +6.12 (+0.62%)

[JNelson6563]

17. 11:14 pretty stable

Dow 9,243.54 +49.30 (+0.54%)
Nasdaq 1,733.02 +13.84 (+0.81%)
S&P 500 994.92 +6.31 (+0.64%)
10-Yr Bond 4.177% +0.075


Just kinda hovering for now. I'm off to a lunch appt. Back in an hour or two. No telling what may happen in that short time...

Julie

[Maeve]

18. 11:46 and staying higher

somewhat within a range, with the Dow around the 9,250 mark and the Nasdaq around 1,735 (S&P in the 997 area much of the time)

Dow 9,247.60 +53.36 (+0.58%)
Nasdaq 1,733.83 +14.65 (+0.85%)
S&P 500 995.87 +7.26 (+0.73%)

[Maeve]

19. 12:43 and cruising

Slightly lower altitude than earlier, but still clear of ground level

Dow 9,241.86 +47.62 (+0.52%)
Nasdaq 1,731.94 +12.76 (+0.74%)
S&P 500 995.36 +6.75 (+0.68%)

[Maeve]

20. 1:15 and no new news

Dow 9,244.31 +50.07 (+0.54%)
Nasdaq 1,732.32 +13.14 (+0.76%)
S&P 500 995.47 +6.86 (+0.69%

[JNelson6563]

21. looks pretty stagnant

1:51 and looks much like when I left:


Dow 9,240.53 +46.29 (+0.50%)
Nasdaq 1,732.12 +12.94 (+0.75%)
S&P 500 995.64 +7.03 (+0.71%)
10-Yr Bond 4.189% +0.087


*yawn*

Julie

[Maeve]

22. 2:44 Whoa, Nellie! (with blather/explanation)

Okay, blather but no REAL explanation!
2:35PM: The bears step off the sidelines, and take the Dow into negative territory for the first time this session... There appears to be no real catalyst behind the move lower, although traders have cited unconfirmed reports of Smith Barney selling futures... Generally speaking, buyers have not put together an admirable rally attempt today considering the influx of much improved Q2 (June) earnings reports and the sharp drop in weekly jobless claims data...
The fact that the latter represents only one data point on the labor market, which until this point has been particularly hard-pressed to show any improvement, has contributed to the reluctance of buyers to bid stocks higher from their already elevated levels
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 9,165.32 -28.92 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq 1,715.35 -3.83 (-0.22%)
S&P 500 987.65 -0.96 (-0.10%)

[JNelson6563]

23. I'll second that!

Geez, I was just comin' in to see what was happening after reading of the clever manuever with the Pentagon vs 9/11 press conferences and saw this! Are we actually with the masses in seeing the transparency of this? Has this treachery inspired doubt? Hmmmm.

Is plummet too strong a word?

2:49:

Dow 9,152.36 -41.88 (-0.46%)
Nasdaq 1,712.37 -6.81 (-0.40%)
S&P 500 986.28 -2.33 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.175% +0.073

Julie

[Maeve]

25. More blather

3:30PM: After spending most of the day in positive territory, the indices took a turn south in late-day trading and have not recovered ever since... A number of rumors seem to be behind the selling drive, ranging from a Drudge Report story that a plane flew directly over President Bush's motorcade in Philadelphia, to talk that US Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge may raise the terror alert level from Yellow (Elevated) tonight... An unconfirmed Smith Barney sell order for a large number of S&P futures has also led traders to lock profits...
Whatever the case may be, the indices have surrendered all of their gains, and buyers have not shown much tenacity to bid the market back to its earlier standing...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Currently, with minutes left:
Dow 9,115.31 -78.93 (-0.86%)
Nasdaq 1,703.10 -16.08 (-0.94%)
S&P 500 982.22 -6.39 (-0.65%)

[Capn Sunshine]

24. quarter to close and at the Bond Desk

we are sitting around trying to figure what happened to reverse the sullen course of the 10 year this AM

All we can see here is SmithBarney appears to be taking a starddle position selling stocks and buying 10 yrs in the futures....at least, its the usual suspects who do the buying for Barney in the 10 yr out there from Phil to PacX.....

If just one retailer shorting the market moves it this much, I'd say the conviction is a mile wide and an inch deep.....

[Maeve]

26. Final figures for the day

Ouch!
Dow 9,112.51 -81.73 (-0.89%)
Nasdaq 1,701.45 -17.73 (-1.03%)
S&P 500 981.61 -7.00 (-0.71%)

[JNelson6563]

27. holy cannolli

it's like we hit a water main or something!

If this keeps up they may have to take Osama off ice.......

I think Cap'n is right, the conviction behind this "rally" is a mile wide and an inch deep, like the Simian's support.

Julie

[Beetwasher]

28. Wha' happened?

Fascinating...

[joshcryer]

31. A good rule is...

...if there's 'good news' in the morning, buy rapidly and sell at the end of the day. If there's 'questinable news' in the morning, wait and see what happens, and if it becomes 'good news' then buy like mad. Short as soon as you see signs of the news being 'bad.'

Somewhat random really, because it's hard to tell what's 'good' and 'bad' news respectively. But that's how it is, almost every time.

[joshcryer]

29. Kind of figured we'd have a sell-off.

Bleh.

[JNelson6563]

30. no kiddin'

you called it early on.

Let us know in the AM how you feel about tomorrow, will ya? ;-)

Julie

[Coventina]

32. No "I Ching" tomorrow or Monday

I'm going to be taking an extended weekend on the Left Coast.

Hope you all have a nice weekend!
See you on Tuesday!

:-)