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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 05:28 PM
Original message
Hurricane Dean nears category 5 intensity
Edited on Sat Aug-18-07 05:38 PM by Up2Late
Source: AFP

Hurricane Dean nears category 5 intensity


18/08/2007 19h20

PORT-AU-PRINCE (AFP) - Caribbean islands and resorts in the path of Hurricane Dean began to batten down Saturday as the massive storm plowed toward Haiti, Jamaica, the Caymans and the tourist-laden coast of Mexico's Yucatan peninsula.

Haiti froze air flights and coastal shipping through Sunday and prepared to evacuate seaside regions in Dean's path as the storm appeared poised to hit the island at midday Sunday.

"Arrangements have been made to evacuate people living in the zones at risk and shelter has been sought in other areas," a civil defense official said.

In Jamaica, dead at the center of the storm's expected track, the country went on full alert and hundreds of thousands flocked to markets and petrol stations to stock up on essentials....

Read more: http://www.afp.com/english/news/stories/070818192004.6m...



Looks like it might hit Cancun and Cozumel in about 48 hours! Get ready or get out now! This one is moving FAST and True!
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RL3AO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 05:30 PM
Response to Original message
1. Recon took off about 30 minutes ago. It is very possible they will find Cat 5 winds.
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BlueJazz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 05:31 PM
Response to Original message
2. I've been in winds of 95 mph and it's scary but winds of.....
...140-150?

Man oh Man ...those poor folks.... :(
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 05:40 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. I've been in winds 150 mph but
I was in a secure house..we didn't know at the time how secure it was gonna be, though!

http://www.drgeorgepc.com/HurricaneIniki.html
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 05:34 PM
Response to Original message
3. Here's the latest track and intensity forcast from the site I use most...
<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/200704N.html >

Here's their current forecast track:



<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/200704N_4H.ht... >

Here's the 45 hour wind field model:



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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 05:44 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. Wow! Thanks for
this map! I hope all these people are battened down good!
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aquart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 07:27 PM
Response to Reply #3
19. That's an awfully straight line for a hurricane.
How often do we see that?
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 09:03 PM
Response to Reply #19
38. It's never going to be quite that straight, best to think of it as an average of it's N/S movements.
Edited on Sat Aug-18-07 09:05 PM by Up2Late
If you look back at it's track so far, you can see it's had a few wobbles South, then back North.



<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/N.html >

That's why they always give you a forecast triangle when predicting where it will make land fall, it could hit anywhere along the short side of the triangle (or white lines on the image below)



<http://www.accuweather.com />
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trayted Donating Member (250 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 05:35 PM
Response to Original message
4. Dude on NBC news just said that Dean may be forming a rare "double eye wall". Katrina had that.
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RL3AO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 05:41 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. He had one about 5 hours ago, but not sure if its still there.
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Penndems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 07:43 PM
Response to Reply #4
22. She sure did - I remember it well
As a matter of fact, we discussed it here on DU at the time it was occurring.
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StClone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 10:13 PM
Response to Reply #4
47. As did Gilbert
The first of the modern Super Storms.
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jody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 05:49 PM
Response to Original message
8. National Hurricane Center puts Jamaica in the cross hairs.
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Xipe Totec Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 06:03 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. Updated Track as of 5:00PM Saturday
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Yael Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #10
13. Oh man -- Jamaica is going to be hit hard
:scared:
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Penndems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 07:45 PM
Response to Reply #13
23. Jamaica will suffer a direct hit
Anybody wanting to get off that island better do so sooner rather than later, because it looks as if Dean is going to do some catastrophic damage.
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shanti Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-19-07 01:29 PM
Response to Reply #23
78. jamaica still hasn't fully recovered from ivan
this is going to be very bad for them! *sending good vibes their way*
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 06:05 PM
Response to Reply #8
12. OMG, I'm having flash-forward visions of the coming humanitarian disaster in Jamaica...
...and with "The Decider" down in Texas "clearing brush" it'll most likely be 3-5 days before he even notices the death and destruction there and figure out that the U.S. usually sends Humanitarian Aid of some sort in situations like this.

Maybe this would be a good time to call on the Democratic Senators who are currently running for President :think: and see which of them can rally the most action in this situation!?!
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aquart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 07:36 PM
Response to Reply #8
21. Where is Guantanamo?
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Yael Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 07:50 PM
Response to Reply #21
26. The far-right tip
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Penndems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 07:51 PM
Response to Reply #21
27. It's at the southeastern end of Cuba:
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 08:23 PM
Response to Reply #21
33. It's on the South Eastern coast of Cuba...
If you cut Cuba into vertical quarters, it would be near the middle of the most Eastern quarter.
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Arugula Latte Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 05:59 PM
Response to Original message
9. I've been hoping against hope it would lost its punch.
This is going to be horrible ...

:cry:
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Whoa_Nelly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 06:05 PM
Response to Original message
11. Watch Dean here on the animated Water Vapor Loop
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 06:34 PM
Response to Reply #11
15. Man, this is gonna be a bad one, check out how clear the eye is on this one...
...you can see it even better on the b&w version: <http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/static/NATWV.html >

Note: You can animate this picture by scrolling down to the bottom of the photo and clicking the "View Movie" link.
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RL3AO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 06:33 PM
Response to Original message
14. Recon aircraft approaching the center.
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 06:36 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. Man, I'd love to do that just once in my life.
You ever had the opportunity?
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RL3AO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 06:38 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. I wish. That would be a hell of a ride.
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Penndems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 08:00 PM
Response to Reply #17
29. You can virtually fly with the Hurricane Hunters via this web link:
Edited on Sat Aug-18-07 08:03 PM by Penndems
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RL3AO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 07:04 PM
Response to Original message
18. Dean down to 920mb.
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Yael Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 07:48 PM
Response to Reply #18
24. That is not good news.
:scared:
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cliss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 07:30 PM
Response to Original message
20. Here's a photo ~
Swedish online newspaper Expressen;

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Yael Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 07:48 PM
Response to Reply #20
25. What is that a photo of?
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Penndems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 07:55 PM
Response to Reply #25
28. A ship sinking in the harbor of Fort-de-France, the capital of Martinique.
Edited on Sat Aug-18-07 08:08 PM by Penndems
n/t
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DLnyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 08:14 PM
Original message
Dean was only at Cat 2 at that point:
Edited on Sat Aug-18-07 08:19 PM by DLnyc
< Friday morning ... a day and a half ago: >

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007



...DEAN POUNDING MARTINIQUE AND DOMINICA...HEADING FOR THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...

( ... snip ...)

At that time:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE <<were>> NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS <<was>> A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE <<were>> LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS <<was>> FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Edit to try to make clear this is OLD!!!
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Penndems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 08:40 PM
Response to Original message
36. Thanks, DLnyc
Yep, I've been reading the advisories and discussions over at the National Hurricane Center.

You might already have the link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov /

It is just absolutely mind-boggling how quickly the intensification process takes place. Remember how Katrina went from a CAT 4 to a CAT 5 in short order?

It was frightening. :scared:
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DLnyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 09:34 PM
Response to Reply #36
42. Yes, good link
There is also an 'archives' link there, which is where I got the (old) link about Martinique.

Yes, seems like open, very warm water can cause very fast strengthening.

Also interesting, to see Sea Surface Temps and Anomalies:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsst.shtml

(not great for dial-up, though)
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DLnyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 08:03 PM
Response to Original message
30. Has Dean wobbled a little south of predicted track?
running IR loop on Atlantic Floater 1 (Dean) at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
with 'LatLon' and 'Trop Pts' on, in 23:45 UTC picture Dean's center looks south of track.

Seems to me I remember someone saying that at Category 4 or 5, these things are a little harder to predict.

Has been right on track, though, up to now.
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Penndems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 08:07 PM
Response to Reply #30
31. It's done a little wobbling, but not enough to knock if off its predicted course,
which is unfortunate for the people of Jamaica.

Once it passes through the Yucatan Strait and begins to draw out heat from the Gulf, folks on the Texas coast need to pay close attention to the direction Dean begins to turn, assuming he does.
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DU GrovelBot  Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 08:14 PM
Response to Original message
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RL3AO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 08:26 PM
Response to Original message
34. Deak has weakened...kinda.
Winds are down but so it pressure.
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Penndems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 08:54 PM
Response to Reply #34
37. A blogger from Montego Bay has a blog on Weather Underground
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 09:17 PM
Response to Reply #34
40. The Weather Channel is saying that the central pressure has dropped again to 918mb
And it's not even to Jamaica yet.

They showed a graphic earlier that said it's the 3rd lowest pressure of all the storms since 1965 (in the Caribbean, I think), just passed Ivan on the list.
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Penndems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 10:08 PM
Response to Reply #40
45. Just read that on the eleven o'clock NHC Public Advisory

Hurricane DEAN Public Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



000
WTNT34 KNHC 190249
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 24...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007

...ADDED STORM SURGE INFORMATION...

...CENTER OF DEAN PASSING JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...HEADING TOWARD
JAMAICA...

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE
OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...
580 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 170 MILES...
275 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS JUST
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR
JAMAICA SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 918 MB...27.11 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA
COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...16.2 N...71.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB.



Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/19...
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 10:24 PM
Response to Reply #45
50. I was reading that too and wondering what AST was (1100 PM AST)?
Edited on Sat Aug-18-07 10:25 PM by Up2Late
Is that Atlantic Standard time?

I think that would be 10:00 PM EDT or 9:00 PM EST, but I'm not sure. :shrug:
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Penndems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 10:38 PM
Response to Reply #50
53. Yep - ATS stands for "Atlantic Standard Time"
As near as I can tell, 11:00 p.m. ATS = 11:00 p.m. EST.
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RL3AO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 10:40 PM
Response to Reply #53
54. Actually
11 pm AST = 10pm EST, but the east coast uses daylight time so 11pm AST=11pm EDT.
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Penndems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 10:47 PM
Response to Reply #54
55. Thanks, RL3AO
I don't recall the NHC utilizing AST in the past. Usually, it's been either Eastern Standard or Central Standard Time.

Is this something new for them?
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RL3AO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 11:00 PM
Response to Reply #55
57. They've used it for as long as I can remember.
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Penndems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 11:10 PM
Response to Reply #57
58. I just don't remember seeing it
Or maybe I'm just getting old. :( :shrug:
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 10:57 PM
Response to Reply #54
56. Thanks, I grew up in N. Indiana so I never had to deal with "jump forward/fall back" crap...
...(we were always on Eastern Standard Time), and even though I've been doing the Daylight time stuff for over 20 years now, it's still confusing to me sometimes, but I did know that the Time Zone to the east of Eastern was Atlantic, anyway...
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aquart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 08:26 PM
Response to Original message
35. "Definition of 'wishcast'": "Landfall in Crawford, TX."
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dogindia Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 09:07 PM
Response to Original message
39. watching loop on CNN 10 pm EDT
Edited on Sat Aug-18-07 09:09 PM by dogindia
not sure but it looks like it is dropping a little more south. Just an inexperienced observation.
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DLnyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 09:44 PM
Response to Reply #39
43. Yes, my (also inexperienced) observation has eye moving due west
from 19:15 UTC (aug 18) to 1:15 (aug 19) UTC

(south of official, west northwest, track)
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Aviation Pro Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 09:28 PM
Response to Original message
41. Kerry Emanuel's Real Time Tracker is always a good source....
Edited on Sat Aug-18-07 09:59 PM by Aviation Pro
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 09:48 PM
Response to Original message
44. Hey, Accuweather has an on-line Video forecasts now, check it out!
Edited on Sat Aug-18-07 09:48 PM by Up2Late
<http://wwwa.accuweather.com/welcome.asp ?>

The Hurricane update is in the upper right. And if you click the big radar map in the middle, it takes you to a regional or City video forecast.
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Penndems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 10:09 PM
Response to Reply #44
46. That's cool - excellent graphics
n/t
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paparush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 10:18 PM
Response to Original message
48. Isla Mujeres, tiny island off the coast of Cancun looks like its gonna get
clobbered. I visited there in 2005. A wonderful place..the anti-Cancun (for the most part).
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StClone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 10:23 PM
Response to Original message
49. Water Temp maps
Warm waters power the beast and temps are pretty warm right now but not maximum.


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RL3AO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 10:33 PM
Response to Reply #49
51. There is a better type of map to use
This is a Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) map. It shows how much energy is in the water. Not only how warm the surface is, but it shows where the water is warmer below the surface.

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StClone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 10:34 PM
Response to Reply #51
52. Great Map
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 11:13 PM
Response to Reply #51
59. Hummm, interesting, looks like the current position is right about where that Hot Spot is.
Based on that chart, I would predict the storm loses a little power overnight as it passes over that cool spot and then rapidly regain strength right before hitting (or maybe just skirting) Jamaica. After that it will probably lose a little strength, but still stay very strong until it hits Mexico.

After passing those warm waters west of Jamaica it's hard to predict, because those water temps could change a lot in the 48 hours and if it tracks back North, it could get much stronger.
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RL3AO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 11:19 PM
Response to Reply #59
60. If you look closer
that "cool spot" is not cool. It is the same heat potential near the islands where it intensified into a Cat4. And that area after Yucatan is where it will most likely become a cat 5. That water between the Yucatan and Jamaica has the most potential of any in the entire basin.
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-19-07 12:20 AM
Response to Reply #60
62. Look again, there is a sub 60 spot in the middle of that cooler area...
...and it became a Cat 4 almost directly South of San Juan P.R. where there currently is a nearly yellow spot, so unless you have the same graphic, but from about 24 hours ago, it would be completely silly to just assume the water temperatures haven't changed at all since then.

Plus, as most will tell you, after a storm of this size and type passes over an area of warm water, the water usually becomes cooler due to, what is often called, the "mixing effect" (the storm draws in cooler waters from below in its wake).

I don't know if I'm explaining this very well, but suffice it to say that, you can't assume the water temperatures that you are seeing now on this chart is the same as they were before the storm passed thought that area, because, most likely, they are probably lower now, in that area, after the storm passed. That's what unusually happens.

So unless you have this same chart from 12, 24, 36, and 48 hours ago, this is just a silly argument.

And I do agree "...that water between the Yucatan and Jamaica has the most potential of any in the entire basin...." but that's assuming that the storm returns to it's original more northerly storm track, which I didn't do in what I posted above. Right now, which is what I'm going by, it looks to me like the storm will track below that area, which would be good, but only time will tell.

I do hope that it stays on it's current, more southernly track, but I'm not betting on it. It would be better for a lot of people though, so I hope it doesn't change course again.
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RL3AO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-19-07 12:27 AM
Response to Reply #62
63. I know quite a bit about tropical systems. I know about the wake systems leave.
And heres the loop of the past week.
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-19-07 06:05 AM
Response to Reply #63
71. I think you forgot the link or something.
I'll check back later.
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RL3AO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-19-07 12:50 PM
Response to Reply #71
77. Woops. Here
go here and click the little loop link

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/ca.html
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-19-07 05:58 PM
Response to Reply #77
80. That page is weird, it won't let me select a 2007 date...
...in the section labeled "Select other date below" I can only select 2006?

I wish I had saved the source link of this great water temp animation they had at: {http://www.storm2k.org/wx /] a few weeks ago, but it's gone now and that site doesn't seem to work right for me anymore, not sure why.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-18-07 11:58 PM
Response to Original message
61. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
Pirate Smile Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-19-07 12:42 AM
Response to Reply #61
64. You can't walk too far when you're on an Island like Jamaica, can you? Jackass troll
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SaveOurDemocracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-19-07 12:56 AM
Response to Reply #61
65. How old are you?? n/t
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nonconformist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-19-07 12:59 AM
Response to Reply #61
66. Jamaica is a tiny island, they don't have anywhere to 'walk to", idiot
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TankLV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-19-07 01:02 AM
Response to Reply #61
68. Go away TROLL!
You've used your two posts to post REPUKE crap...

We know WHAT you are...

The failure and BLAME belongs SOLELY to YOU REPUKES. Period.
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libnnc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-19-07 03:06 AM
Response to Reply #61
69. Isn't there a busy four lane highway somewhere for you to play around?
Wanker.
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Zero Division Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-19-07 08:09 AM
Response to Reply #61
72. Your attitude illustrates what's truly wrong with our society.
I've had my chance to meet people with opinions like yours, often times shocked that otherwise seemingly "good" people would believe in such ignorant selfishness with such smug pride, exuding condescension for both those in need and those who understand the interdependence between human beings and how another's suffering affects others. Often those with your mindset loudly espouse your belief in personal responsibility, an ideal which they seldom apply to themselves. Many wonder why we have such poor leadership in our country. It's more than just the undue influence of money in our politics. Even without that there is a virulent strain of belief that some forms of selfishness and even cruelty make a person noble or "manly".

Although I find your opinion abhorrent, I thank you providing such a clear example of this virulent attitude. I think you'll find more like-minded individuals elsewhere....
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JanMichael Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-19-07 08:19 AM
Response to Reply #72
73. lack of funding for education
sad, isn't it. I alerted on this guy-the mods should take care of him/her soon.
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Zero Division Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-19-07 08:55 AM
Response to Reply #73
74. Sadder is the fact that some of this comes from people who are....
otherwise intelligent, such as a very sharp former coworker of mine who once expressed the opinion that "those people shouldn't have been living there in the first place" with regard to Katrina, without knowing that I had relatives who lost their house in New Orleans. Some people simply have no ability to extend any empathy to those they don't immediately identify with. You can try arguing with them about how helping rebuild the area will help the rest of the nation, too, but that goes nowhere. It's more a problem of learned attitudes and personality than intellect or education, in my opinion.

Anyway, this troll gave me an opportunity to get something off of my chest, so at least there's that.
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TankLV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-19-07 01:00 AM
Response to Original message
67. WHY ARE THE PEOPLE OF KATRINA STILL SUFFERING?!!!!
That is what I care about...

I hope this one DESTROYS Crawford...
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kentauros Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-19-07 04:32 AM
Response to Reply #67
70. I hope it doesn't try to get to Crawford...
Unfortunately for the rest of us on the coast on Texas, in order for Hurricane Dean to destroy Crawford, it would have to make landfall somewhere from Corpus to Galveston. As a native of Houston (still here) and not a Republican (go figure) I for one do not want to see Dean make landfall this far North. The close call of Rita was scary enough and I still remember living through Alicia (1983). Here's a Google Maps link for where Crawford is in relation to the rest of the state (there should be a little green arrow pointing to it West of Waco is this works...)

Crawford, Texas and the Texas Gulf Coast

Hope that helps :)
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-19-07 12:42 PM
Response to Reply #70
76. Did you notice that Crawford if only available in the Low-res version on Google Maps?
But if you go to Microsoft's Live Search, it's a much higher resolution b&w photo, I'm not sure how old the Live Search photo is though, it might be old.

Google does have some of Prairie Chapel Road though, how far from Crawford is his ranch?
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kentauros Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-19-07 02:43 PM
Response to Reply #76
79. I didn't look at the satellite images...
I might do that at work tomorrow since I make maps for a living ;)

I'll see if NASA's Worldwind has anything. I do sometimes use MS Live because it has better street name markings than Google and sometimes better images, but I can't get it to work in Opera. Guess I'll have to use IE. But I do have a source at work bookmarked for high-resolution images available from the Texas Natural Resources Information System for download. The only "problem" is I have yet to find a key to what their numbering of the files refers to on a grid. If I had coordinates of it, I could find it pretty fast.

And if you've never used Worldwind, you might give it a look. It allows you to map global weather maps onto their globe, use MODIS (Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), get 7.5 degree USGS topo quads for the US as well as decent 3D of the world when you lower the horizon :) And that's just for the Earth! lol But, I've used it for getting topo maps and for non-work information. It's a great tool. I'll have to check tomorrow if they have Hurricane Dean in the MODIS function yet.

By the way, for those that would like to be able to keep track of flood stages of their local waterways, the following link is the NWS's Hydrological map of just such things:

National Weather Service - Hydrologic Resources
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-20-07 04:07 AM
Response to Reply #79
81. Hey, thanks for the links! I love looking at Satalite pictures and go to the MODIS Gallery a lot...
...which brings up this question> WHAT the Hell happened to the MODIS Pictures!?!?!!

Looks like something or someone screwed up! The newest photo in the NASA MODIS Gallery is from last
MONDAY August 13, 2007 <http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery />

And all the Near-real-time Subsets seem to stop on Wednesday August 15, 2007!!! <http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?AERONET_La_... >

And there is no Real-time data for Sunday or today!!!

And Nothing for Friday August 17, 2007 only a few frames for Saturday August 18, 2007! <http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/2007230 />

<http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/2007228 />

What the hell's going on?

I think someone crashed the Database, here's why

Check this out from the front page of the site: <http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov />

News
(8/15/07) - Update on the status of our historical archive for Level-2 250-meter True Color Browse:

Several users of our Level-2 (swath) browse images noticed that we removed the historical 250-meter true color imagery from the online archive last week (see rationale below) and have reported their concerns with this change.

We made the decision based on careful review of monthly user requests and communications logs that we have been maintaining for several years. We did not think that this change would impact anyone significantly.

Nevertheless, we should have provided advance notice so that folks who rely on these images could plan for the change. We apologize for making the change without sufficient notice, and we are currently in the process of restoring these images.

We will maintain them online for at least 6 more weeks.
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slackmaster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-19-07 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #67
75. Poverty, ignorance, poor preparation, sleazy insurance co's, government incompetence at all levels
And an act of God.
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