STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday January 4

[ozymandius]

Thursday January 4, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 746 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2200 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1905 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1866
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 7
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 3, 2007

Dow... 12,474.50 +11.35 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq... 2,423.16 +7.87 (+0.33%)
S&P 500... 1,416.60 -1.70 (-0.12%)
Gold future... 627.10 -8.10 (-1.28%)
30-Year Bond 4.77% -0.05 (-1.06%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.66% -0.05 (-0.98%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Chris Puplava

MARKETS START THE YEAR OFF WITH VOLATILITY

The markets bolted out of the gates with the December release of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI). The index posted a surprising rise back into expansionary territory (>50) by rising to 51.4 after falling to contractionary territory (<50) with a reading 49.5 in November. November marked the first time the PMI index fell below 50 since April of 2003 and the rise back into positive territory helped lift the markets in early morning trading.

-cut-

Further fueling a rise in the markets was a break-down in energy as crude oil sold off to start the year, falling below $58 a barrel with the continued warm weather in the eastern United States that prompted traders to sell energy commodities in anticipation of lower demand for heating fuels. In New York City the temperatures are in the 50s with the possibility for temperatures to reach in the lower 60s over the weekend. The mild weather pattern is explained below with figures and commentary from AccuWeather.com.

Brutal cold waves are a trait of January. They occur when the jet stream takes on a greater north-to south component. This is called a high amplitude pattern, which is able to dislodge bitter cold from arctic regions and transport it southward into the lower 48 states. This evolution is expected to occur throughout North America over the next two weeks. Get ready; winter is coming!

The markets turned south in early afternoon trading with the release of the Fed’s December 12th minutes, showing that members believe economic growth will remain below potential with housing remaining the dominant factor in the slowdown, and auto sales also contributing. A few members commented that “downside risks to economic growth in the near term had increased a little” and with comments that economic activity in the second half of 2006 were likely “a touch softer than had been expected.” These comments spooked investors as the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw its triple-digit gain evaporate and turn negative over a two hour period.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[NC_Nurse]

3. Yesterday was a trip!

:crazy:

Enjoyed reading the thread this morning. I'm working in a new area now, 9-5:30, so I can't participate much these days.

Shout out to AnneD! I saw your update post - glad you're back. Great news about your brother. AA is a great support and you might want to check out Al-Anon yourself. I've been and it
really puts the family dynamics in perspective. Helped me a lot.

Hope everyone is having a good new year so far! :hi:

[AnneD]

42. Morning Marketeers......

:donut: and lurkers. Shouting right back at ya NC :hi:. What areas give you a 9-5:30. You are in real danger of becoming a real human being.

I am OK with the family dynamics. We had the misfortune of having an alcoholic step-dad that came in while we were young and spread his messy Karma all over everything. I could have gotten through the family dynamics quicker if I had gone through Al-Anon but I worked it out anyway. Sometime things turn out fine regardless, especially if you want to sincerely change and do it from the inside out.

I wish my sister would go through it though. We have been estranged for some time now. She is estranged from the entire family actually. I have always been forgiving but there comes a time when you have to let them go anyway. It's not a bright idea to hug a striking snake. She seemed hell bent to leave us so we just let her go. We have had a lot of peace, calm, and healing since she left-she was a real pot stirrer, she was. We all try to be more loving and supportive of each other now. We accept each other's warts and try as best we can to help each other.

Well, that was a bit more personal than I usually get-but if it helps someone see the light at the end of the tunnel......

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 84.20 Change +0.26 (+0.31%)

How Will the US Dollar Perform in January?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/How_Will_the_US_Dollar_1167413881627.html

Every currency trader tries to handicap the future direction of the market and they do so using a variety of methods, the most prominent of which are fundamental and technical analysis. From both schools of thought, the most popular view at the moment is for further dollar weakness in 2007. Central banks from around the world have already begun to diversify out of US dollars in fear of lower interest rates in the months to come.

After seven months of tight range trading, the US dollar broke down and has embarked on a major new trend since late November. However, even though both fundamentals and technicals favor further dollar losses in 2007, the dollar could strengthen before it weakens. Prices move in repeated patterns which is the foundation behind technical analysis. Therefore it should be no surprise that there is a unique repeated pattern in the performance of the US dollar in the month of January based upon seasonality.

...more...

2006 Has Been a Tough Year for the US Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/2006_Has_Been_a_Tough_1167415793429.html

US Dollar - 2006 has been a tough year for the US dollar. It lost value against the Euro, Swiss Franc, British Pound and Australian dollar while only managing to end unchanged against the Japanese Yen, Canadian and New Zealand dollars. Volatility shrank to record lows and the breakout that we saw in late November lasted for no more than 2 weeks for most of the currency pairs. The US dollar ended the last trading day of the year stronger against every major currency except for the Euro. The calendar was very light with only the help wanted index released this morning. The index remained unchanged and resulted in zero volatility for the greenback. All markets are closed on Monday while the US stock markets will remain closed on Tuesday for National Mourning Day (for former President Ford). Futures markets will be open on Tuesday, but will close early. However, just because the US markets are closed on Tuesday does not mean that traders should not be prepared for the busy week ahead. There are a lot of important data set for release including manufacturing and service sector ISM, the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and non-farm payrolls. With the EUR/USD and GBP/USD consolidating for most of December, next week’s data could start the year with bang. Manufacturing ISM is due out Tuesday. After the strong Chicago PMI print yesterday, we could actually see the index rebound, especially since the ISM adjusted Philly Fed index increased in the month December despite the drop in the headline index. Traders will be paying a very close attention to the prices paid component since inflation is still the Federal Reserve’s top priority. Recent economic data has been mixed which means that the outlook for the economy is still uncertain. The non-farm payrolls report on Friday should help to clarify things, but in the beginning of the week, the ISM number will help to confirm or deny whether the manufacturing sector is still facing recessionary conditions.

...more...

Rebound In ISM Tips The Dollar Scales

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_news/Rebound_In_ISM_Tips_The_1167852740503.html

The set up and subsequent action in the dollar Wednesday was perfectly paralleled to the fundamental significance of the ISM’s factory report. Expected to print a neutral 50.0 read, any lean from the typically top market-moving indicator could have turned potential energy into a momentous run quickly. Looking to the majors, this is exactly what happened.

From an overnight perch at a four week high 1.3295, the EURUSD went on a two-leg drop totaling 145 points. At its own range high, the GBPUSD completely erased Tuesday’s rally with a massive 270-point drop before a bottom was found around 1.9485. Prior to the New York session, the swissie-denominated pair was making a modest advance, but the full dollar swing helped earn the pair nearly 170 points through the early afternoon. Finally, the consolidation in the USDJPY turned to a breakout when the broad dollar bids advanced the pair nearly 100 points to 119.70, only arms length away from big resistance.

Yesterday’s dollar action proved the currency market can move in the absence of major fundamental releases, but today’s retort demonstrates a move headed by data more often than not holds the greater potential. Coming back to life, the economic calendar was loaded with more than one economic release this morning. First to hit the ticker, the weekly MBA application figure came in with the first positive number in three weeks, lining itself up with the favorable turn in November’s sales data. The other housing-related report, November’s construction spending, was also doing its part to brighten the outlook for the hard-hit sector. Though spending contracted for the third consecutive month, the smaller than expected dip and big upward revision to October was still notching a tick in the bulls’ column. Initially, the 1.0 percent plunge in October represented the biggest drop in over five years, but the adjusted 0.3 percent slip was well within normal bounds.

After the minor indicators were digested, the market focused on the day’s more imperative statistics. One of these reports was the ADP’s private employment change for December. Many economists believe the young, proprietary report has one of the best correlations to the market’s favorite market mover; the NFPs. This would suggest the 40,000 person layoff last month, the first negative number since April of 2003, was setting the government’s report up for an equally disappointing read. What’s more, the smaller Hudson Employment Index had also revealed marked its own decline around the same time this morning. However, the market is likely to remain cautious regarding the predictive power of the ADP number. This is because, though the past few months have seen smaller gaps between the ADP and NFPs, much of it may be attributed to the stabilization in monthly employment figures. With this air of prudence in mind, speculators will now turn to the employment component of the ISM services figure to further solidify the market’s official consensus.

...more...

ADP Points to Weak Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/ADP_Points_to_Weak_Non_Farm_1167861526737.html

US Dollar - The US dollar staged a very strong rally today as the equity markets reopened after the long weekend. The peak in the US dollar coincided with the intraday peak in the Dow, which was up over 100 points at one point. Real money funds, who are unleveraged buyers such as mutual funds were snapping up US stocks and US dollars along with it. In the beginning of the year, we see a lot of portfolio reweightings that tends to be very positive for the US dollar. In fact, according to a seasonality study that we published last week, over the past 10 years, the US dollar rallied against the Euro (or Deutschemark pre-Euro), 80 percent of the time. However the EUR/USD found a bottom when the Dow gave back all of its morning gains. The fundamental outlook is not exactly supportive of a strong dollar rally. Even though the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting revealed the central bank’s concerns for upside inflation risks, today’s economic data gives the central bank no choice other than to keep interest rates at their present levels even if they think that inflation is problem. This is especially true if the labor market data comes out weak on Friday. The Fed will be forced to put growth ahead of inflation. With oil prices breaking below $60 a barrel however, inflation will probably not remain a problem for very long. The ADP number was very weak this morning. According to the payrolls agency, US companies reduced their payrolls by 40k in the month of December. This is the first time we have seen a negative reading in the index since April of 2003. Back then, payrolls printed at -68k. The Hudson Employment index also posted a 2.6 percent drop. Taken together, we could see a very weak non-farm payrolls number on Friday. In fact, many banks have already dropped their NFP forecasts significantly. We could realistically see US companies add 50k or fewer jobs in the December. The dollar sold off on the report, but the sell-off did not last as traders began to price in the possibility of a firmer ISM manufacturing number. As they expected, manufacturing conditions expanded once again after contracting the prior month. However we would caution against being too optimistic about the report because there was underlying weakness. The prices paid component dropped significantly suggesting that inflation pressures in December may be far lower than the inflationary pressures in November. In addition, the employment component of the report remained in contractionary territory, which adds to the case that the labor market in general may have deteriorated significantly last month. If the labor market is weak, then the US economy has even fewer legs to stand on.

...more...

[54anickel]

15. Have you looked at the 1 year chart lately?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d12

[UpInArms]

27. thanks 54anickel - just a fly-by post here - but

iirc this is the time of year that the BoJ intervenes to make their year-end look good (around the end of March) and they they drop the buck like a hot potato just to play the game all over again for another year.

:shrug:

:hi:

[54anickel]

31. Yep, I was thinking the same thing. We've watched that now for the past

few years - remember "Yenetics"?

Then there's the Fed jaw-boning the buck up with their "inflation concerns" yammering. Might be able to pull off dollar support through the first quarter, if they're lucky, then it's back to the slide. They NEED a cheaper buck, they WANT a cheaper buck, but they want it to be at a measured pace and spread across diverse currencies (especially Asian/Chinese). Right now they're just trying to avoid a panic so we get a lot of Fed yammering when things are looking glum.

[ozymandius]

29. Jeebus!

Reminds me of this...

[54anickel]

32. Heh-heh, It's a PUKER!!!! THAT'S how you know it's a great ride! n/t

[AnneD]

43. OK....

who's packing the Dramimine. At least I am haven't had lunch yet.

[54anickel]

34. Today's Pfennig - Inflation Is A Predominate Concern?

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=1148

Good day... Well... A stronger-than-expected ISM Manufacturing report yesterday put some strong wind in the dollar's sails... Yesterday's move gave the dollar its biggest two-day move vs. the euro since last summer... The minutes of the Fed's last meeting were also printed, and in them, the Fed states that "inflation was the predominate concern." This gave additional wind to the dollar... But I have to ask the question to those that think these words are so important... If inflation is a predominate concern, why have they left interest rates unchanged for the past 4 meetings?

People are buying dollars because they believe the economy is stronger than previously thought, and that the Fed will continue to raise rates to combat inflation... Geez, Louise... I can only wish that's the case! Hey! I live here! I buy my gas, groceries and giggles here... So... A strong economy to me is ideal! However, I don't see it... I think investors are getting wild eyed because of the stock market performance... They say... "stocks are up... Everything must be great!"

Hmmm... Interesting... Don't you think? Oh well... I can't let myself get all caught up in that... I have to keep my head about me and keep to the task at hand... Which is... Reminding people that with the current fundamentals, the U.S. dollar should be weaker... Gold should be higher, along with the currencies.

Speaking of gold... Yesterday there was a report that printed and talked about how investors were going into stocks and not gold... So... Gold lost ground... I just can't help but think that's silly...

OK... Going along with the dollar's strength, the Eurozone received CPI data this morning that showed inflation remaining below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2%... December CPI printed at 1.9%... So... Those "not in the know" see this and sell euros because they believe the ECB won't need to keep raising interest rates... But as I've discussed before... The ECB fully understands that this dip in inflation comes from the strength of the euro and falling oil prices... They also understand that oil prices sit on a teeter totter... Waiting for something on the other end to cause it to go back up in the air...

And... As I've discussed several times in the past... The ECB doesn't just use inflation to target interest rates... They also use Money Supply (imagine if the Fed did that!), which continues to be strong... So... I'm not one, at this point anyway, to believe the ECB is anywhere near ending their rate hike cycle.

more...

[54anickel]

39. Forex - Dollar firm against euro after temporary slip on weak US factory orders

http://www.forextelevision.com/FT/AFX/ShowStory.jsp?seq=197251

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar remained firm against the euro after tripping momentarily on the publication of weak US factory orders.

The US numbers showed that orders for manufactured goods rose by 0.9 pct, only a slight rebound after a sharp 4.5 pct drop in October and still below analysts' expectations for a stronger 1.4 pct increase.

At the same time, non-manufacturing ISM edged down to 57.1 in December, roughly matching analysts' forecasts.

The figures allowed the euro to regain its footing against the dollar, but only briefly before falling back below the 1.310 level.

Today's gains for the dollar marked a continued strong patch for the US currency since the beginning of the new year, which some economists have attributed to lower commodity prices.

However, many economists also warned that the dollar strength may not last, with the next test being nonfarm payrolls tomorrow. The ADP forecast for payrolls estimated a decrease in the number, whereas most analysts expect a rise.

"The rebound of the usd is viewed as a position squaring event ahead of tomorrow's important US labour market report and although this correction has further to go in the short-term, we suggest that the usd trend for the next few weeks remains to the downside," wrote BNP Paribas economists in a research note.

more...

[ozymandius]

4. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Initial Claims 12/30
Briefing Forecast 320K
Market Expects 320K
Prior 317K

10:00 AM Factory Orders Nov
Briefing Forecast 1.5%
Market Expects 1.4%
Prior -4.7%

10:00 AM ISM Services Dec
Briefing Forecast 58.0
Market Expects 57.0
Prior 58.9

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[ozymandius]

8. Monster US monthly online jobs index falls in Dec

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A gauge of U.S. online job demand fell as expected in December, in line with a seasonal slowdown in hiring, online careers and recruiting firm Monster said on Thursday.

Monster said its Employment Index fell 8 points to 167, down from 175 in November. It was 145 a year ago, reflecting a 15 percent increase for 2006.

"The indications are that job growth will continue to moderate in the beginning of 2007 but still be relatively healthy," said Steve Pogorzelski, group president of Monster Worldwide (Nasdaq:MNST - news), parent company of Monster. "We see unemployment rates continuing to remain at historically low levels."

"Acute skills shortages in certain occupational categories will continue to worsen and our employer customers are still very concerned with employee turnover driven by higher wages," Pogorzelski added.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070104/bs_nm/economy_monster_employment_dc_1

[54anickel]

20. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rise 10,000 to 329,000 (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aW3nwNDT.5Pc&refer=us

Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- More Americans filed first-time claims for unemployment compensation last week, suggesting the labor market was gradually slowing at the end of 2006.

Initial jobless claims rose 10,000 to 329,000 in the week ended Dec. 30, the second-highest weekly figure since July, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure, rose to 317,500 from 316,250.

The biggest housing slump in 15 years is leading to job losses at builders and related industries. The government's payroll report tomorrow may show December job growth remained below the average for 2006. Weekly claims figures were also distorted by seasonal adjustments associated with the holiday season, a Labor Department spokesman said.

``It would appear that additions to payrolls are slowing,'' said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York. Still, at this time of the year, he said, ``weekly claims figures are quite volatile owing to seasonal adjustment difficulties.''

Economists expected initial jobless claims to rise to 320,000 from 317,000 initially reported for the prior week, according to the median of 28 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 300,000 to 325,000.

more...

[54anickel]

21. U.S. Nov. factory orders rise 0.9% vs. 1.2% expected - Excluding transportation, factory orders fall

Excluding transportation, factory orders fall 0.5%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-nov-factory-orders-rise/story.aspx?guid=%7B0479318F%2D6E85%2D46C4%2DAA51%2D4C88D2FC8C7C%7D&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Orders for U.S.-made factory goods rose 0.9% in November on strong demand for computers, transportation equipment and defense goods, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

But excluding transportation, orders for U.S. goods fell by 0.5% in November, suggesting slack in the overall manufacturing sector.

The report helped to send Treasury prices higher on Thursday morning, pushing yields lower. See Bond Report.

Orders for durable goods rose 1.6% in November, down from the 1.9% estimated by the government a week ago. See earlier story.
Orders for nondurables, meanwhile, were flat.

The report points to weaker growth in the factory sector in November. But it follows a rise in a key manufacturing index in December that was reported Wednesday. The ISM's manufacturing sentiment index rose to 51.4% from 49.5% in November. Readings over 50% indicate the sector is growing. It was the first increase in the index since July. See archived story.

Inventories were up 0.3% in November, the tenth rise in the last 11 months.

"The manufacturing sector is still struggling with some excess inventories here and there," said an e-mail note from Moody's Economy.com. However, said the economists, orders and shipments should improve by mid-2007 as excess inventories are worked off.

more...

[54anickel]

22. U.S. ISM Services Index Fell to 57.1 in December From 58.9

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=abAfqW5bKhv8&refer=us

Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Growth at U.S. service industries slowed in December after reaching a six-month high, limited by weakness in the housing market, a private survey showed today.

The Institute for Supply Management said its index of non- manufacturing businesses eased to 57.1 from 58.9 in November. Readings above 50 point to growth in industries that make up almost 90 percent of the economy.

The report showed that service providers such as banks and delivery companies are giving the economy a lift even as homebuilders and automakers struggle. The figures point to a ``moderate'' pace of economic growth that Federal Reserve policy makers say is likely early this year.

``The services side of the economy is holding up,'' Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said before the report. ``Overall job growth is still decent, and income growth is providing a lift to consumer spending.''

more...

[54anickel]

23. U.S. Retailers' December Sales Slow on Price Cutting (Update2)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=avGpPIjP7n_Y&refer=us

Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retailers including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. posted December sales that rose less than a year earlier as stores lowered prices to lure holiday shoppers.

Federated Department Stores Inc. said sales at stores open more than a year increased 4.4 percent, falling short of estimates. Gap Inc.'s sales declined and the company lowered its profit forecast by 18 percent. Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, reported a 1.6 percent increase.

Declining sales growth bodes ill for holiday-season profits, which make up about a third of the industry's annual earnings. Price cuts on flat-screen televisions and leftover cold-weather clothes following weeks of warm weather probably undermined fourth-quarter profits, analysts said.

``The numbers are going to be less robust than everyone hoped for,'' said Patricia Edwards, who helps manage $7.9 billion in assets at Seattle-based Wentworth, Hauser & Violich. ``Promotions were high and earnings are going to be difficult across the board.''

Taken together, December sales rose 3.1 percent, making this year's holiday season the slowest in two years, the International Council of Shopping Centers said today. Sales for November and December combined increased 2.8 percent. In 2005, sales for the two months rose 3.6 percent, while December alone gained 3.5 percent.

more...

[AnneD]

46. Synopsis....

when all else fails-blame the weather.:eyes:
Maybe there are more folks like me that are getting realistic, making a lower bugdet, and paying cash. I had a great Christmas-best one in a long time. And it didn't take a lot of money.

[ozymandius]

52. Retail sales come in worse than expected (more info)

NEW YORK - An already disappointing holiday shopping season turned out to be even worse than expected for many of the nation's retailers, who said Thursday they had tepid sales gains for December.

The downbeat results came from merchants in all retail categories, particularly from apparel sellers who struggled with depressed sales of cold weather items like heavy coats amid mild weather across the country. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. posted better-than-expected results for December following a dismal November, but the discounter's overall holiday season was the worst on record, analysts said.

December's sales results could be a harbinger of weak profit reports when retailers release their fourth-quarter results next month. One big exception was luxury retailers, whose performance continued to beat Wall Street estimates.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070104/ap_on_bi_ge/retail_sales_8

Hear that? Retailers are fine if they sell things that appeal to Marie Antoinette and Paris Hilton.

[ozymandius]

5. Oil prices trading below $59 a barrel

LONDON - Oil prices steadied Thursday after falling more than $2 a barrel the previous day as traders awaited the release of U.S. inventory data expected to show the first increase in crude oil stocks in six weeks.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange edged up 10 cents to $58.42 a barrel in electronic trading by midday in Europe.

On Wednesday, the contract plunged $2.73 to $58.32 a barrel, the lowest settlement for a front-month contract since Nov. 17, as persistent mild winter weather in the United States led traders to bet on lagging demand for heating fuels. It was the biggest one-day dollar drop since Aug. 17, 2005.

-cut-

"The slide in crude oil prices has been accelerated by the release of comments from the U.S. Fed meeting on Dec. 12 which highlight concerns over the U.S. economy," said Peter Beutel, an analyst at Cameron Hanover.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

6. Gas from Norway Could Reduce Dependency on Russia

Western Europe's dependence on Russia's natural gas reserves has been a constant source of worry. A new facility being built in Norway to liquify the precious energy source could provide some relief from Russian dependency.

It's dark here -- a place of perennial gloom. In the winter time, workers on the island of Melkøya, near the Norwegian port of Hammerfest, forget what the sun feels like for weeks. Dawn glows faintly on the horizon for only about two hours a day. And that's not the only form of adversity they face on this giant construction site, 600 kilometers (373 miles) north of the Arctic Circle.

-cut-
It is estimated that one-fourth of the world's oil and natural gas reserves lie hidden away in the Arctic. Some of them lie beneath the ocean floor, in the Barents Sea. At the end of this year, the Norwegian energy concern Statoil wants to begin extracting natural gas in the area.

Getting the resource from the ice desert to central Europe by pipeline would be too expensive. Pipelines more than 3,000 kilometers (1,864 miles) long aren't worth the cost, and the Barents Sea is simply too far away. That's why Europe's first major facility for the liquification of natural gas is now being built on the island off the port of Hammerfest. Once the natural gas has been liquified, it can be shipped all over the world by sea.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,448574,00.html

[ozymandius]

51. Oil prices drop more than $2

NEW YORK - Oil prices fell more than $2 a barrel Thursday — extending a similarly sharp slide a day earlier — after the government reported that inventories of gasoline, heating oil and diesel fuel rose more than analysts expected during the last week of 2006.

Warmer-than-normal temperatures for this time of year in the Northeast and Midwest have led to a buildup in inventories and, as a result, weaker prices.

"There is no winter at all, thus we have a lot of supplies with no home and prices have nothing to do but fall," said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group in Tampa, Florida.

Light, sweet crude for February shed $2.67 to $55.65 a barrel in afternoon trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. If crude closes near this level, it will be the lowest close since June 2005.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

7. Futures point down; focus on retail

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks looked set to open lower on Thursday, with investors watching December retail sales reports for signs that the economy may be slowing more than expected.

BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. (NYSE:BJ - news) reported a December sales gain below analysts' estimates and slashed its fourth-quarter profit forecast.

Youth-apparel retailer Hot Topic Inc. (Nasdaq:HOTT - news) late Wednesday posted lower same-store sales and also cut its earnings outlook for the fourth quarter. Its shares fell $1.44 to $12.10 in extended trading on Wednesday.

"Overall, there's a new concern starting out this year that has a lot to do with just how much this economy is going to slow and how that's going to impact earnings," said Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst of Jefferies & Co.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070104/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc_13

[ozymandius]

9. Why consumers may show more discipline in 2007

After the usual binge of holiday spending, Americans may want to make a resolution of fiscal prudence for the new year: "I will repair my household finances."

This isn't just advice from financial gurus during an era of record household debt. For many families, fiscal discipline is being imposed by the slowdown in the US housing market. Indeed, the number of homes in foreclosure is rising, as many owners fail to meet their mortgage payments.

But there is good news: For most households, this is a relatively benign climate for financial make-overs.

-cut-

Some economists, in fact, believe a recession is likely as faltering home prices put a squeeze on family wealth. But the more common forecast is that the housing slump won't cause an outright downturn in the economy.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20070102/ts_csm/arepair_1

[54anickel]

14. Ya know, I really dispise the tone of that article. They make it sound

like the ONLY reason "households" have gotten into debt was frivolous spending and borrowing. The main focus on the article seems to be mortgages. But who got them into those huge mortgages they could barely afford on paper? And what about the ones who are in debt because they used credit to make ends meet between jobs, or to pay medical expenses, or student loans when that promise of a bright future with a good education fell through. The ones who had a good paying job with benefits that are now working 2 or 3 jobs to make less than they were with no benefits. Yes, let's completely blame the "households" for the mess we've gotten them into. :eyes:

I love the last line, you fill in the ellipse:

"Democratization" of credit, with new types of loans available to more people, has generally been a positive force in recent years, Zandi says. "This probably has allowed ... for a more stable economy," he says. But it also leaves many people vulnerable if interest rates rise substantially, or if housing prices falter.

This "stable" economy is running on "borrowed" time.

[specimenfred1984]

26. Notice all the "financial experts" out spewing their garbage too?

Every media/propaganda outlet has some "expert" telling everybody what fckups we are. They're a bunch of worthless, jingoistic, yapping whores.

Way back during the Nasdaz bubble collapse, there was a guy on local TV around here named Ric Edelman telling his TV audience "now's the time to buy". That asshat is still on TV instead of being in jail like he should be. People like him don't give a flying fart about anything but their own money and they will lie on que like the press whores they are.

My "new year resolution" is to let every single one of these whores hear exactly what they are.

[ozymandius]

33. Lou Dobbs too.

Despite being a hero to the anti-outsourcing crowd - Lou Dobbs has been in trouble with CNN management about his whoreish ways in promoting companies on his program in which he is invested. CNN will shake their fist at him and scold - but what are they really gonna do? He's Lou Dobbs. Lou Dobbs doesn't give a shit.

[AnneD]

45. No ...really,

tell me what you honestly think sf19984. :toast: I like that resolution. Good on ya mate. That was the same thought as I changed my avitar and sig line. Here's to telling like it is. :toast::toast::toast:

[ozymandius]

30. Yes, made me wince too.

The 'democratization of credit' is kinda like the democratization of Iraq.

"If" interest rates rise substantially; "If" housing prices falter...
It's already happening as ARMs adjust upward and housing prices in an oversold market. Oversold to too many people who should not have qualified for a mortgage by rational standards.

[54anickel]

36. Whenever I hear that "democratization" term flung around these days

I immediate think, "uh-oh someone's getting screwed again - big time."

Sometimes I wonder if we aren't being set up to come to fear and hate the term "democracy" (and any form of the word). Do they want us to toss that term into the heap with socialism, populism, communism, etc? :shrug:

[AnneD]

44. It was a bit...

patronizing wasn't it. The main reasons for bankruptcy (what happens when credit and savings are exhausted) are: unemployment, catastrophic illness and/or death, and divorce.
The only one I can see as the fault of the consumer is maybe divorce. All the others are a roll of the dice.

We have wanted a house for some time but there has not been one available in what my husband and I realistically think is in our budget. We have been smart enough to try to live in our means. Even with that, we had to use our cards when we had a curve ball thrown at us. We learned from out mistake and intend to be debt free before we purchase our house. And even then we still plan to live within our means.

All it takes is one good F/U and you can spiral down. Democratization of credit my :kick:

[54anickel]

37. Subprime Lender Implosion: Bad Omen For Housing Market

Lenders Collapsing Faster than Cheaply Built Houses

http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2007/01/mln_subprime.html

Subprime lenders have been both blessing and bane in the housing industry for many years, enabling lenders to rake in huge profits while saddling consumers with exorbitant loan terms and high interest rates.

Now, as the housing market slows to a crawl, many subprime lenders are collapsing faster than homes made of substandard materials, and the signs point to even more pain in the housing market as a result.

Mortgage Lenders Network USA (MLN) announced it was shutting its doors today, as a result of market economics the lender said were "not good ... it deals with the performance of loans, and to a lesser extent the value of homes."

The company's abrupt shutdown left many brokers scrambling to find new financing for their clients' home purchases.

snip>

Ameriquest, formerly the country's largest subprime lender, collapsed quickly after its former CEO, Ronald Arnall, was appointed by President Bush to be ambassador to the Netherlands.

Ameriquest shuttered virtually all of its offices and laid off 3,800 employees thanks to the collapsing subprime market. Its demise was exacerbated by a $325 million settlement with 30 states' Attorneys General over deceptive marketing and lending tactics.

Dumbya sure can pick 'em :eyes:

more...

[ozymandius]

10. The Big Economic Worry - Productivity Is Slowing

The start of a new year is a good time to take stock, and there are few better indicators of our long-term economic prospects -- and also our prospects for political and social peace -- than productivity. As anyone who's taken basic college economics should know, productivity is simply jargon for efficiency. It's also what most people think of as economic progress. The good news is that productivity has been growing strongly; the bad news is that it may be moving to a much slower path.

To see why that matters, consult a fascinating government report, "100 Years of U.S. Consumer Spending." A century ago, Americans spent 43 percent of their incomes on food and 14 percent on clothing. By 2002, those shares were 13 percent and 4 percent. Meanwhile, family incomes (after inflation) had exploded. Filling the spending gap are all the things we take for granted -- cars, TVs, travel, telephones, the Internet. Home ownership has zipped to almost 70 percent of households.

This triumph of mass consumption is usually credited to technological breakthroughs, from the assembly line to computer chips. But the whole process is also described as productivity improvement. In 1900, 41 percent of Americans worked on farms. If mechanization, new seeds and fertilizers hadn't meant that fewer people could produce more food, we'd still be paying two-fifths of our income to eat. Labor productivity is measured as output per hour worked. Whatever enables people to produce more in a given time (machinery, skills, organization) boosts productivity.

-cut-

Unfortunately, productivity growth seems to be decreasing. In the past year it's been only 1.4 percent. By contrast, it averaged about 3 percent from 2000 to 2005. The fall-off partly reflects a mature business cycle. As the economy slows, so do productivity gains. But some long-term forecasts project that the poor performance will continue. In Moody's Economy.com's outlook, productivity growth averages 1.4 percent a year from 2005 to 2035. The main reason: stunted business investment in new machinery, technologies and buildings, says chief economist Mark Zandi.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/02/AR2007010200943.html

[54anickel]

13. Phffft. Productivity growth is decreasing because they've squeezed

just about all they can outta that "More with Less" rock. More work with less workers, for less pay, with less resources to properly do their job.

As Dad used to say about the milk cows, "you get out what you put in". Gotta give them proper care, feed 'em good, treat them well and they'll pay you back with lots of cream and milk (and a healthy beller of thanks).

[AnneD]

48. Remember when the buzz words were to...

cut the fat, leaner and meaner, etc. SSDD but the only problem is that we are to the point of trying to pull a product from thin air. Businesses are so lean and mean now, they are looking like skeletons, and anemic ones at that.

[ozymandius]

11. Home Depot CEO resigns abruptly, gets $210 million package

ATLANTA -- Dogged by criticism of his hefty pay and his company's poor stock performance, Robert Nardelli abruptly resigned as chairman and chief executive of The Home Depot Inc. after six years at the helm of the world's largest home-improvement store chain, the company said Wednesday.

But he didn't leave empty-handed: The Atlanta-based company said Nardelli would receive a severance package worth about $210 million, an amount decried by some lawmakers as a golden parachute that sends the wrong message to investors.

"It's a sign of being totally out of touch," said Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., the incoming chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. "They don't understand the extent to which they make the American public angry."

Frank said he would push for legislation requiring public companies to allow shareholders to have a say in compensation and severance for senior executives. At The Home Depot's annual meeting in May, shareholder proposals to give investors a say on the CEO's pay and to restrict retirement benefits for senior executives were rejected.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/298325_homedepot04.html?source=mypi

[54anickel]

19. A Warning Shot by Investors to Boards and Chiefs

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/04/business/04place.html?_r=2&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

Arrogance has never been attractive in a leader. Now, in corporate chief executives anyhow, it may be a career ender.

The surprising defenestration yesterday of Robert L. Nardelli, head of Home Depot and one of the nation’s most imperious and highly paid chief executives, was a victory for shareholders hoping to force corporate directors to be more accountable on the increasingly incendiary issue of executive pay.

Even though the board gave him $20 million that was not a part of his employment contract, perhaps smoothing his way out the door, the departure seemed to be a watershed. No longer can executives demand — and directors happily grant — contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars without at least some shareholders uttering a peep.

Indeed, Mr. Nardelli’s resignation seems to indicate a rising fear among Home Depot’s directors that they would be subject to even more investor ire and personal embarrassment during the 2007 proxy season than they encountered in 2006, when Mr. Nardelli ran the annual shareholder meeting like a lord over his fief.

“The departure of Nardelli is good news for shareholders,” said Frederick E. Rowe Jr., a money manager in Dallas and president of Investors for Director Accountability. “To borrow from Winston Churchill, this is the end of the beginning in the war to make directors accountable to the shareholder owners they represent.”

Mr. Nardelli’s fall from the executive firmament was fairly stunning. In just six years, he went from being one of the most sought-after chief executives, forged in the management crucible that is General Electric, to a top target of investors outraged by his $245 million in total pay over the last five years. That amount was seen as completely at odds with the dismal performance of Home Depot stock on his watch.

more....

Don't even get me started on that "management crucible that is General Electric" bullshit :grr: :nuke:

[ozymandius]

12. pre-open blather

08:32 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. Early indications continue to suggest a lower open for equities. Meanwhile, as investors continue to sift through a mixed batch of monthly retail sales figures from more than 60 retailers, they are also digesting the first of three economic reports. Initial claims just checked in, rising 10,000 to 329,000 (consensus 320,000). However, since the market remains more focused on tomorrow's more influential December jobs report to get a clearer picture of labor conditions, the claims data have had little impact on pre-market trading.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0. After finishing well off their highs yesterday, stocks look like they will limp into this morning's opening bell with an added sense of caution. While there aren't any specific news items to account for the market's negative slant, the indices' inability to hold onto what was shaping up to a be very strong start for 2007 a day earlier appears to be feeding concerns that a nearly six-month rally in stocks is ripe for a pullback. Investors are also showing some reserve until all of the same-store sales results for the key month of December are tallied.

[Roland99]

16. A little profit taking by the barons? BTW, what the heck happened on Wed.?

I caught a bit of CNBC yesterday morning and watched the markets skyrocket up about 80pts in the 1st 15-20 min. of trading. People still high on eggnog?

[ozymandius]

17. The latest from the Land of Make Believe.

10:46
Dow 12,452.25 Down 22.27 (0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,432.09 Up 8.93 (0.37%)
S&P 500 1,414.22 Down 2.38 (0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.624% Down 0.04
NYSE Volume 782,469,000
Nasdaq Volume 553,189,000

10:30 am : The indices spike to session lows within the last 30 minutes after mixed economic data fail to give the bulls a reason to extend the year-end rally. At the top of the hour, the Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell in December to 57.1, but down from an unexpectedly strong read a month earlier. Even though that figure was basically in line with economists' forecasts and the report typically doesn't get a whole lot of attention, any evidence that economic growth is decelerating leaves investors questioning the sustainability of the six-month run-up in stocks. As evidenced by the Industrials sector (-1.0%) currently providing the bulk of downward pressure on the broader market, factory orders for November checking in with a weaker than expected 0.9% rise and a fourth consecutive decline in ex-transportation orders is also weighing on the psyche of participants preoccupied with the pace of economic growth.DJ30 -62.57 NASDAQ -7.91 SP500 -7.23 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1877/823/362 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2192/735/264 mln

[54anickel]

18. A pause in the storm

http://www.prudentbear.com/articles/show/96

Much has been made on these and other pages of the divergence between households, the Federal Government, America’s economy and corporate profits. Yet, the pieces of the puzzle are rarely assembled to form the fractured image that is emerging. Lately a tale of two states has come to define the flow of macro data. Late last month we learned of run away producer inflation (the largest one month increase in PPI in decades <1>) and a slight reversal of decline in housing starts on the same day- within a few hours <2>. New and existing home sales improved in November as well. Strangely consumer confidence as measured by the Michigan Sentiment index went up. All these data points were refigured by market pundits as good- if not great- news. The PPI and housing news events of December 19, 2006 are not of enduring significance, except as market metaphor. The parting of the ways in data and in national fortunes demands great concern and discussion. So far, it has received neither. It is there I seek to turn your attention.

It has been an unusually robust run for America’s corporations. Profit rates, numbers and earnings as a percentage of GDP have scaled new heights. Average S&P500 earnings growth has risen at a more than 10% pace for almost five years- 19 quarters and counting. This has left S&P500 corporations with well over a half trillion dollars in cash on balance sheets. This cash is funding stock buy backs, acquisitions and interest earnings, all of which have pushed share prices up. Between 2003 and today the wages and salaries component of national income- unadjusted for inflation- has risen 18%. Over the same period, there was a 67% increase in corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustment<3>. Corporate profits are increasing at 3.7 times the rate of earnings in the US economy. The broad measures include these corporate earnings and are thus more laggard than traditional side by side measures suggest. Profits are a bright spot as are corporate fortunes. America is now defined by the tandem rise of Federal and personal debt, current account imbalance, stagnant wages and soaring profits. Corporate earnings growth inflates lackluster macro performance and leaves many overly optimistic about the health of the national economy.

We see slowing GDP growth and quickening dollar pressure as signals that the drag of international imbalance and flat wage growth has increased. The challenge of the year ahead is to reconcile the experience of firm bottom lines with the over-all macro economic conditions. The new Congress will face pressures on this front and so will business. Housing weakness is taking a welcomed breather of late but, far from over. The wind always dies down in the eye of the storm. We believe we are experiencing the false confidence of rough weather passed in the eye of the residential investment hurricane. Interest rate pressures are similarly on pause. Dollar conditions will push for higher rates even as economic weakness suggests lower rates. We see a stuck Fed moving cautiously to address these two mutual opposed concerns. The divergent states of households and firms will complicate this process as the Fed fears recession and a public riding a debt service razor’s edge. Despite all this, there is reason to believe that after an overdue retreat in the first half of 2007 firm profits and bargains will allow for bright spots in US and foreign equity markets. Expect rising volatility and discussion of foreign out performance to creep into the recent buoyant attitude. Even before adjustment for the dollar’s slide, much of Europe, developing East Asia and parts of South Asia widely out ran US indexes in 2006.

Firms with foreign operations have moved into an enviable position where weakening dollars and stellar corporate earnings combine with still fairly robust consumer spending and minimal tax exposure to create strength in earnings. One of the standard risks from deflating dollars- rising import costs- has lately been offset by retreats in energy prices, dollar pegged Asian currency in production inputs and dollar priced commodities that serve to limit the exposure to weakening dollars on the input cost front. Here again, we see a tale of two states of exposure to globalization. American labor- indeed developed world labor- is restrained in wage and benefit demands by intense global competition. This competition is led by established western and Japanese firms growing offshore and using cheap worked up input components. States also compete for capital investment and strain to maintain globalization as opposition throughout the world raises security costs and requires action on far flung instability. Again, this entails a parting of ways between states, employees and leading firms. We assume this will continue in 2007 and the way in which it is slowly recognized and reactions to it take shape will define the investment and business climate in 2007 and beyond.

more...

[54anickel]

24. Study: Employers allocate more for benefits, especially health care

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20070103-0942-workerwages.html

NEW YORK – Employers are spending much more on employee benefits than they used to.
A study released Wednesday by the nonprofit Employee Benefit Research Institute in Washington, D.C., found that of the $7 trillion employers spent on workers in 2005, 80.6 percent went to wages and salaries and 19.4 percent went to benefits.

In 1960, wages and salaries accounted for about 92 percent of employer spending for total compensation, EBRI said.

EBRI said its analysis of 2005 Commerce Department Data also found that:

- Retirement benefits cost employers $628.4 billion, up from $458.8 billion in 2000.

- Health benefits totaled $596.5 billion, up from $399.6 billion in 2000.

- Other benefits, including unemployment and life insurance, cost $138.3 billion, up from $94.2 billion in 2000.

more...

Watch for it, they're gonna start crying...meanwhile these "benefits" taken fron the workers pockets are lining corporate buddy coffers and maintaining the Ponzi scheme in the markets.

[ozymandius]

25. 11:28 numbers and blather

Dow 12,453.53 Down 20.99 (0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,436.48 Up 13.32 (0.55%)
S&P 500 1,415.59 Down 1.01 (0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.624% Down 0.04
NYSE Volume 1,097,467,000
Nasdaq Volume 789,521,000

11:00 am : The indices are back to trading in split fashion as oil prices recently hitting fresh session lows below $57/bbl ushers in a renewed wave of optimism among sidelined buyers. Albeit paring some of its losses (-1.7%), crude for February delivery is still hovering near $57/bbl following much larger than expected builds in weekly distillate supplies and gasoline inventories. Taking full advantage of a continued easing in the commodity’s potential to sustain inflation pressures has been Technology (+0.9%). As reflected in the Nasdaq spiking to its best levels of the morning, the Tech sector is pacing the way, getting a big lift from gains of more than 2.0% from influential components like INTC and QCOM. DJ30 -14.66 NASDAQ +15.29 SOX +0.9% SP500 -0.87 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1723/1105/568 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2085/947/432 mln

[ozymandius]

35. updating blather

11:30 am : Not much has changed since the last update as split industry leadership continues to dictate today's action. Of the eight sectors trading lower, Materials now paces the way (-1.0%). Monsanto (MON 50.71 -0.97) handily beat Wall Street expectations; but management's failure to alter full-year forecasts, which are below consensus, and with the stock hitting a new all-time high last Thursday in anticipation of a strong report, a sell-the-news reaction leaves the stock consolidating to the tune of 1.9%. Also stalling recovery efforts that recently inched the S&P 500 above the unchanged mark has been more consolidation throughout Energy. The sector's most influential constituent and Dow component Exxon Mobil (XOM 73.70 -0.41) is well off its lows of the day (-1.8%), but another wave of selling pressure in oil prices (-2.6%) leaves the sector retracing session lows. DJ30 -17.10 NASDAQ +14.50 SP500 -0.65 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1589/1270/764 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1854/1229/586 mln

[54anickel]

28. (Auto) Executives see little North America growth

http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2007/01/04/executives_see_little_north_america_growth/

DETROIT -- Auto executives worldwide expect slower North American sales growth and more parts supplier bankruptcies during the next five years, according to a survey taken by the auditing and consulting firm KPMG LLP.

They also see high fuel prices permanently etched in consumers' minds, sending them away from trucks and sport utility vehicles to hybrids and low-cost cars, and that doesn't bode well for Detroit's Big Three, according to the survey to be released today.

But despite continued restructuring and too much production capacity worldwide, many of the 150 senior industry executives surveyed by the company said they also are at least mildly optimistic about profits as they identify cheaper ways to produce parts and new sources of revenue, according to the survey.

"They seem to be more optimistic that there's going to be strategies and creative ways to do that," said Daron Gifford, KPMG's national automotive industry leader.

more...

[54anickel]

38. Auto sales slide in '06

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070104/BUSINESS01/701040422/1014/BUSINESS

The appetite for new cars and trucks in the United States slowed down in 2006, and consumers bought a ho-hum 16.5 million new vehicles -- 2.6% fewer than in 2005.

To the optimist, that still makes 2006 the eighth best sales year on record.

But the realist will also see it was the worst year since 1998 and a far cry from the 17 million vehicles consumers have bought most years since then.

When every 200,000 sales keep about one assembly plant and several parts factories running, that's a significant decline -- especially when most of the lost sales came from the Detroit brands.

What's more, consumers moved away from profitable trucks, which have been the bread and butter of Detroit, to less profitable cars. Industry-wide sales declined 5.6% for the light-truck category, which includes pickups, SUVs and vans. Cars, though, got a 1.8% boost.

Still, the auto industry lost about 438,000 vehicle sales, or about two assembly plants' worth, in the United States last year.

more...

[54anickel]

40. Bonuses, Then and Now - The Rain of Riches

http://www.counterpunch.org/fleischman01042007.html

In December, 2006, Goldman Sachs, a Wall Street financial services company, announced a sixteen and a half billion dollar bonus for its 26,500 employees, an average of $623,418 per employee. Their newly appointed CEO received a bonus of $52,000,000.

With the rain of riches falling upon Wall Street these days, the practice of distributing rewards at the top is picking up steam. CEOs and executives at Lehman Brothers and Morgan Stanley are receiving bonuses as high as $60 million. The manna from heaven continues to fall, and the optimists just want to let the good times roll. They see the benefits of Capitalism unending. Halleluiah! We're on a bonus march!

The very thought of it takes your breath away and also takes you back to the days of the original bonus marchers.

In May of 1924, the US Congress voted a cash bonus to the veterans of World War I. Because the money wasn't readily at hand, they devised a delayed bonus structure, the money to be paid out in twenty years, around 1944 and 1945.

But in the spring and summer of 1932, in the depth of the "unexpected" Great Depression, the veterans petitioned the government for part payment of their bonuses to provide some relief for those whose jobs and income took a dive as a result of the collapsed economy.

Although the Congress went along with the idea and passed a bill that would allow veterans to borrow up to 50% of the certificate value of their bonuses, then Republican President Herbert Hoover, not being a big "tax and spend" man, vetoed the bill.

more...

[54anickel]

41. OT - Ford's warning from the grave (last paragraph says it all)

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/sidney_blumenthal/2007/01/fords_warning_from_the_grave.html

During the holiday interregnum between the election of the new Congress and its swearing in, the death of former President Gerald R Ford at the age of 93 evoked nostalgia for his interim "time to heal" (the title of his memoir) after the resignation of President Nixon.

Like all nostalgia, it was distorting and disabling. Surprisingly, the one shattering the false mood was none other than Ford himself, speaking from the grave. Beyond the River Styx he could hardly silence the broadcasters attempting to outdo one another in reaching for high notes of banality. But he left behind words cautioning against the abuse of history, especially by those who served as his aides, Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld, who twisted the lessons of his presidency to provide the underpinnings of George W Bush's policies. Ford's condemnation demonstrated the continued relevance of the contentious politics that enveloped his administration and revealed just how little healing has occurred among the divided Republican elites since Richard Nixon's fall.

His last testament was a final act of political finesse. Obeying the unwritten protocol of former presidents not to criticize a sitting one (a sketchy rule never upheld by Herbert Hoover or Jimmy Carter), he vouchsafed his commentary to a reporter guaranteed to publish it for maximum exposure and thus, Ford must have known, damage. Having suffered a stroke in 2000, Ford must also have known that his remarks on Bush and the others would appear while Bush was still in office and therefore of more than historical interest.

snip>

Ford also agreed with Colin Powell's assessment of Cheney as having a "fever" about invading Iraq. "I think that's probably true," he said, adding that Cheney had become "more pugnacious".

Ford's judgments are best understood as reflections on his own presidency. He describes Bush with a disdain he reserved previously only for one other man he believed had contempt for facts - Ronald Reagan. If he was anything, Ford was consistent, and he was consistently hostile to Reagan's right-wing politics, which he grasped had metastasized into Bush's radicalism. Even worse, two of his formerly close staff members were chiefly responsible for the "justifying" of a disastrous policy, "a big mistake", contrary to "the facts".

snip to last paragraph>

But as Bush prepares to announce his escalation of the Iraq war, he and Cheney made a final use of Ford, eulogizing him for his pardon of Nixon, which they turned into a metaphor for their own will in the face of crumbling support. "The criticism was fierce," said Cheney. "But President Ford had larger concerns at heart." Bush hailed him for his "firm resolve" and "character." "In politics," Cheney said, "it can take a generation or more for a matter to settle, for tempers to cool." This is no time to heal. Let history sort it out.

more...

[54anickel]

47. 2:58 Things lookin' up as we approach that magical hour

Dow 12,479.33 4.81 (0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,450.85 27.69 (1.14%)
S&P 500 1,418.63 2.03 (0.14%)
10-yr Bond 4.6140% 0.0500
30-yr Bond 4.7230% 0.0440
NYSE Volume 2,286,207,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,609,794,000

2:30 pm : More of the same for stocks as the blue chip indices and the Nasdaq continue to trade in opposing directions. On the Dow, 20 of its 30 components are under pressure. Not surprisingly, Exxon Mobil (XOM 72.66 -1.45) is the biggest laggard (-2.0%) among the eight Dow stocks posting losses of at least 1.0%, as crude futures look like they will close at their worst level of the day under $56/bbl (-4.6%) and at two-month lows.DJ30 -36.05 NASDAQ +15.32 SP500 -2.44 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1612/1412/1.41 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1993/1255/1.13 bln

2:00 pm : The major averages continue to trade near afternoon lows as the bulk of sector leadership remains negative. Oil prices have come off their worst levels, helping the Energy sector (-1.8%) pare some of its intraday losses. However, with only 30 minutes until the NYMEX closes and the February crude contract still down 3.3%, the absence of leadership from the likes of Oil & Gas Equipment (-2.9%), Drillers (-1.9%), and Integrated Oil (-1.8%) – three of today’s worst performing S&P industry groups – will likely remain an obstacle for the bulls to overcome. DJ30 -36.49 NASDAQ +11.79 SP500 -2.91 XOI -1.6% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1673/1324/1.29 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1925/1306/1.03 bln

1:30 pm : Absent a catalyst over the last hour and a half to move the indices more aggressively in either direction, investors finally find a reason to push stocks lower. Within the last 15 minutes, oil prices have extended their reach to the downside, breaking below $56/bbl (-4.0%). While that certainly bodes wells for consumers, further deterioration in the Energy sector merely serves as a reminder that earnings estimates for the engine behind double-digit profit growth for the S&P 500 for so many quarters will likely be revised lower. ..OSX -2.4%. ..OIX -1.3%.DJ30 -38.29 NASDAQ +11.08 SP500 -3.10 XOI -1.9% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1629/1376/1.18 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1915/1281/932 mln

1:00 pm : Little changed since the last update as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges. The market's holding pattern has been further evidenced in the A/D line, as decliners on the NYSE still hold a 19-to-12 advantage over advancers while those on the Nasdaq hold a narrower 16-to-13 margin. A split ratio of up to down volumes, though, paints a more accurate picture as to the blue chip indices struggles to garner enough upward momentum to join the Nasdaq in positive territory. DJ30 -18.41 NASDAQ +13.62 SP500 -1.09 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1667/1310/1.08 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1946/1253/860 mln

12:30 pm : No real change in sentiment as traders make their way through the New York lunch hour. The S&P 500 has again run into some resistance near yesterday's close (1416) and has slipped back into the red. Technology continues to garner broad-based buying interest, but Intel's (21.12 +0.77) nearly 4% gain can only do so much to offset weakness in 19 of the Dow's 30 components. It is worth noting though that losses on the blue-chip index remain minimal. DJ30 -18.91 NASDAQ +13.53 SP500 -1.02 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1602/1335/998 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1901/1289/788 mln

12:00 pm : The major averages are trading near session highs midday, but remain split, as investors weigh upbeat analyst commentary and another sell-off in oil prices against mixed monthly retail sales and economic data.

As evidenced by the Nasdaq outpacing its blue chip counterparts, Dow component Intel (INTC 21.13 +0.78) is soaring after Banc of America raised their Q4 and full-year profit forecasts. Bargain hunting interest appears to be playing an added role behind the 3.8% surge in last year's worst performing Dow component (-18%).

Notable leadership from Health Care, one of only two other sectors trading higher, is also providing some support for the tech-heavy Composite. The sector is getting a big lift from analyst upgrades on Amgen (AMGN 70.31 +1.91) and Genzyme (GENZ 65.21 +3.06).

Consumer Discretionary has also been in focus following mixed same-store sales results for the key month of December. Even though Wal-Mart (WMT 47.80 +0.25) confirming a better than expected 1.6% rise in monthly sales and strong Dec. comps from Costco Wholesale (COST 53.88 +1.04) ease some of the concerns about consumer spending, disappointments from retailers like Limited Brands (LTD 27.60 -1.98) and Family Dollar (FDO 29.10 -0.44) leaves investors less certain about the sustainability of a six-month rally in stocks that has priced in expectations of a stronger holiday season. Fortunately for the bulls, a 1.0% advance by the discretionary sector's most influential component, Comcast Corp. (CMCSA 43.08 +0.42), is acting as an offset. Goldman Sachs assumed coverage of CMCSA with a Buy rating.

The absence of leadership from Energy (-1.0%) for a third consecutive session, though, continues to act as an overhang. The fact that oil prices are tacking a 2.4% decline onto yesterday's 4.5% sell-off, however, is also contributing to an improving sentiment heading into the afternoon session. Crude for February delivery is trading below $57/bbl at seven-week lows following much larger than expected builds in weekly distillate supplies and gasoline inventories.

On the economic front, the Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell in December to 57.1, but down from an unexpectedly strong read a month earlier. Even though that figure was basically in line with economists' forecasts and the report typically doesn't get a whole lot of attention, any evidence that economic growth is moderating leaves investors wondering if stocks are overbought on a short-term basis. Bonds, though, have rallied on the news, as the 10-year note is up 12 ticks to yield 4.60%. BTK +1.3% DJ30 -6.09 DJTA +0.2% DJUA -0.4% DOT +1.0% NASDAQ +18.25 NQ100 +1.2% R2K -0.1% SOX +1.6% SP500 +0.99 XOI -0.8% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1514/1405/902 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1835/1282/704 mln

[54anickel]

49. Heh-heh, just found my quote of the day...

"What you're seeing is just a tug of war between concerns the housing market is still weighing us down, and the wheelbarrows full of liquidity that want to go somewhere," said Kevin Gaughan, portfolio manager and equity strategist at Strong Financial Corp.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070104/wall_street.html?.v=36

Look it's Chopper Ben!!!

http://thumb2.shutterstock.com/photos/thumb_small/1294/1294,1124784040,5.jpg

[ozymandius]

50. rounding the corner

3:37
Dow 12,492.31 Up 17.79 (0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,457.26 Up 34.10 (1.41%)
S&P 500 1,420.26 Up 3.66 (0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 4.618% Down 0.046
NYSE Volume 2,602,701,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,845,901,000

3:00 pm : After vacillating in a relatively narrow range all afternoon, a renewed wave of buying interest now has all three major averages trading in positive territory. Turnarounds in the Consumer Discretionary and Staples and Technology extending its intraday gain to 1.7%, due in part to oil prices closing at session lows boosting investor confidence, are contributing to market's recent recovery attempts. The Dow is now in the green for the first time today. DJ30 +6.50 NASDAQ +27.64 SP500 +1.87 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1519/1516/1.53 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1885/1379/1.23 bln

[ozymandius]

53. finals with blather

Dow 12,480.69 Up 6.17 (0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,453.43 Up 30.27 (1.25%)
S&P 500 1,418.34 Up 1.74 (0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.618% Down 0.046
NYSE Volume 2,941,296,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,175,658,000

good night folks! :hi:

Ozy


4:20 pm : After yesterday's afternoon reversal of fortune, stocks got back on the buying track Thursday; but to the chagrin of many blue chips, almost all of the momentum was centered on the Nasdaq. The Dow and S&P 500 closed to the upside, but gains were minimal, while the Nasdaq turned in an impressive 1.3% gain.

The catalysts behind today's action ranged from mixed monthly retail sales and economic data to another sell-off in oil prices and lower interest rates. However, upbeat analyst commentary and corporate news on a handful of Nasdaq bellwethers were the sparks behind today's developments.

Among the biggest movers and most influential components on the tech-heavy Composite was Intel (INTC 21.25 +0.90). The chip giant, which is also a suggested holding in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio, soared 4.4% after Banc of America raised its Q4 and full-year profit forecasts. Bargain hunting interest appears to have played an added role behind making last year's worst performing Dow component (-18%) today's best performer on the price-weighted index.

Cisco Systems (CSCO 28.41 +0.68), another recommended holding, surged 2.5% to a multi-year high as investors applauded its move into the security space by acquiring IronPort Systems for $830 mln. Google (GOOG 482.42 +14.83) posting 3.2% advance, amid reports that is expanding into mobile search in China by teaming up with the country's largest cellphone carrier, provided additional sector support, as did a 4.5% gain in Qualcomm (QCOM 39.16 +1.70).

Aside from Technology's 1.8% advance to pace just three other sectors turning in positive performances, notable leadership from Health Care (+1.0%) also provided some support for the Nasdaq. The sector got its biggest boost from strength in biotech following analyst upgrades on Amgen (AMGN 71.33 +2.93) and Genzyme (GENZ 65.60 +3.45).

The absence of leadership from Energy (-1.9%) for a third consecutive session, though, continued to act as an overhang, minimizing blue-chip gains. The fact that oil prices tacked a 4.4% decline onto yesterday's 4.5% sell-off, however, provided the boost to investor confidence behind late-day recovery efforts on the Dow and S&P. Crude for February delivery closed at $55.78/bbl amid more warm weather forecasts and following much larger than expected builds in weekly distillate supplies and gasoline inventories.

On the economic front, the Institute of Supply Management said its services index fell in December to 57.1, but that was down from an unexpectedly strong read a month earlier. Even though that figure was basically in line with economists' forecasts and the report typically doesn't get a whole lot of attention, any evidence that economic growth is moderating left investors wondering if stocks remain overbought on a short-term basis.

The Treasury market rallied on the news and the drop in market rates served as another catalyst behind the upward momentum in growth stocks typically dependent on borrowing. DJ30 +6.17 NASDAQ +30.27 SP500 +1.74 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1326/1750/2.12 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1678/1624/1.65 bln