STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday October 23

[ozymandius]

Monday October 23, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 819 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2126 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1832 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1793
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 20, 2006

Dow... 12,002.37 -9.36 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq... 2,342.30 +1.36 (+0.06%)
S&P 500... 1,368.60 +1.64 (+0.12%)
Gold future... 596.40 -6.10 (-1.02%)
30-Year Bond 4.90% -0.01 (-0.12%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.78% -0.00 (-0.04%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
No Tree Ever Grows to the Sky

According to Dow Theory both the Primary and the Secondary trend remain positive. The Secondary Trend was confirmed as being positive in February and then again in March. This positive confirmation carried the market as expect up into a joint high in May. At that high the Transports had moved into a new all time high but the Industrials had not. As I read the averages, this meant that the Secondary trend was still positive, but the Primary trend wasn't. In any event, the averages then sold off into their June lows. That low marked a “Secondary Reaction” low point. From that low the Industrials have moved up into new high territory and in doing so my read is that this turned the Primary trend bullish again. But, the problem now comes with the price action of the Transports. From the June low the Transports moved up briefly into their July 3rd high but did not make a new high. Then, from that failed high the Transports violated their previous Secondary low point with the move down into August. In all fairness, there is also an argument that can be made for the August low having marked the previous Secondary Reaction low on the Transports rather than the June low. In any event, from the August low the averages advanced again, but the Transports still have not bettered the previous failed high that was made in very early July.

So, at present we have the Industrials at an all time new high, which has the world plum giddy. All the while we have a failed advance on the Transports at a Secondary level followed by what could be a violation of the previous Secondary low point followed by what is thus far a second failed rally of Secondary level.

-cut-

Let me also stress that these non-confirmations are not sell signals as many people who have not sufficiently studied the Dow theory may believe. No, they are warnings. At present it would take a move by both averages back above their previous Secondary high points in order to nullify these warnings. So, as long as the Transports continue to lag, these warnings hold and this is the environment where what Robert Rhea termed as “sell spots” could develop. In the meantime, caution is warranted as I believe this ongoing non-confirmation is far more important than most people realize. All of the focus is on the Industrials and the fact that they are now making new highs. In the process, I believe that this advance is doing its job at sucking every last possible participant into believing that all is well. Sure, the trend remains up, do doubt about that and only a fool would argue differently. But, according to Dow theory, all is not quite well.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[specimenfred1984]

21. DOW Theory is outdated, full of sht

--- Manipulation
The first assumption is: The manipulation of the primary trend is not possible. ---

http://stockcharts.com/education/MarketAnalysis/dowtheory1.html


Tim Wood is a clueless idiot.

[ozymandius]

22. This makes me very sad specimenfred1984.

But, nontheless, I agree with you. While I have been posting the WrapUp for these past three-some-odd years, I have followed Tim Wood's analysis. The only reason I have continued to post the WrapUp is because of "tradition". The only people who regularly write the WrapUp worth their salt anymore are Martin Goldberg and Ike Iossif. Tim Wood lost me a long time ago.

He's a name dropper, a quote puller and a perennial theoretician. His claim of credibility are perched on the notion of "just you wait...it's coming". Well, a stopped clock is correct twice every day. His quaint comments based on seventy five year-old obervances are irrelevant now. Robert Rhea would not recognize the markets we see today.

But I suppose I'll keep posting Mr. Wood's observations. At least they will remind us of what not to consider when observing gamed indeces.

[ozymandius]

2. Oil slips, seeks more evidence of OPEC cuts

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil fell below $59 a barrel on Monday as traders doubted all
OPEC members would follow Saudi Arabia's lead to curb output under an agreement reached last week.

U.S. crude eased 71 cents to $58.47 a barrel by 1102 GMT. The front month contract lost $1.68, more than 2 percent, on Friday to hit its lowest level this year.

London Brent crude dropped 74 cents to $58.94.

Top world oil exporter Saudi Arabia has informed Asian and U.S. customers it will cut output by 380,000 barrels per day from November 1, following an OPEC deal on Friday, a senior OPEC delegate said.

-cut-

The OPEC cut was its deepest since January 2002 and equal to about 4.3 percent of September supply, but has failed to halt oil's slide from its July peak of $78.40.

more

[ozymandius]

3. Halliburton earnings climb

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Halliburton Co (NYSE:HAL - news), the world's No. 2 oilfield services group, on Sunday posted a 25 percent rise in earnings, beating Wall Street forecasts, on robust spending by producers on oil and gas output, particularly in North America.

The Houston-based company posted third-quarter income from continuing operations of $615 million, or $0.58 a share, compared with income from continuing operations of $492 million, or $0.47 a share, in the third quarter of 2005.

The figures topped analysts' average forecast of 54 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates.

more

[ozymandius]

4. BP attacked over safety standards

The US Chemical Safety Board (CSB), the federal body which investigates major industrial accidents, has attacked safety standards at UK oil giant BP.

Its findings follow an investigation into the March 2005 blast at BP's Texas City refinery near Houston that killed 15 people and injured 180.

BBC Radio 4's File on 4 has found that the CSB says there were eight previous dangerous incidents at the plant.

-cut-

It further claims that BP failed to adequately maintain instruments and equipment, and that the number of training staff at the plant had been cut by 73%.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6074416.stm

[legin]

5. I really find this all very confusing

They apparently cut 1.2 million barrels from production and instead of the price going up $6 or $7, it goes down.

I'm lost.

[ozymandius]

7. Basically, it means that bids on oil futures have gone away.

When traders at the New York Mercatile Exchange (NYMEX) place bids on oil, they can do it two ways. First: they can place bids on oil that is already out of the ground and on the market. Or, Second: they can place bids on oil that is still in the ground and not yet en route to the refinery.

We need to dispell a popular notion that only whatever happens in the Middle East shapes the price of crude (i.e. Iran's nuclear ambitions). That is just window dressing. There is a risk factor in middle east politics - but not to the degree that we have been sold.

Where the price disparity between now and July resides is in the investment houses that have been placing bets on oil futures. Oil (like natural gas) has been, until recently, a no-lose bet. Investment houses like Goldman Sachs and Price Waterhouse Coopers placed bets on oil futures: that is oil that will be delivered to market on a certain date, weeks or months away. These huge investment banks have been the middle men driving up prices.

Either by political machinations, market sentiment or some of each - the investment banks have curbed their NYMEX trades. The big middle players have gone away. That leaves the oil trade to governments (China, E.U., India, U.S.) and direct marketers (refineries and gas retailers).

These huge banks have been sitting on millions of barrels of oil. They and the oil drilling companies have been making a killing at our expense.

[legin]

12. Thanks ! n/t

.

[ozymandius]

6. Park visitor finds 5.47-carat diamond

MURFREESBORO, Arkansas (AP) -- A Wisconsin man visiting a state park took home the ultimate souvenir: a 5.47-carat canary diamond.

Bob Wehle of Ripon, Wisconsin, found the diamond at the Crater of Diamonds State Park in Murfreesboro October 14. The park is the world's only publicly operated diamond site where visitors are allowed to search and keep any gems they find.

-cut-

Bill Henderson, assistant park superintendent, said park officials don't estimate values of the stones found by visitors. But he said Wehle's gem was identical in quality to -- but larger than -- a 4.21-carat flawless canary diamond found in the park in March that was valued by a New York diamond expert at $15,000 to $60,000.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/10/21/diamond.ap/index.html

[ozymandius]

8. Panama Backs $5.25B Canal Expansion Plan

PANAMA CITY, Panama (AP) -- Panama is embarking on an ambitious expansion of its storied canal to accommodate today's larger ships, recognizing that one of the engineering wonders of the world badly needs an update.

In a referendum marred by relatively low turnout, voters Sunday authorized the construction of a third set of locks so that vessels too wide for the current 108-foot-wide sections can take the shortcut between the seas.

"Today we have laid the groundwork to build a better country together," said President Martin Torrijos, who staked his political future on the plan.

His government said the $5.25 billion project, the largest in the canal's 92-year history, would create 40,000 jobs in a country where 40 percent of people live poverty and were unemployment sits at 9.5 percent.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061023/panama_canal_referendum.html?.v=2

[ozymandius]

9. Ex-Enron CEO Skilling to Be Sentenced

Former Top Enron Executive Jeffrey Skilling Faces Up to 20 Years in Prison at Sentencing

HOUSTON (AP) -- After his conviction earlier this year for orchestrating one of the nation's biggest financial scandals, former Enron Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Skilling was to learn Monday how long he would have to spend behind bars.

Before the sentence is handed down, Skilling will have to listen to victims of Enron's 2001 collapse.

They have been allowed by U.S. Judge Sim Lake to speak at the hearing about how the company's implosion affected their lives. The collapse wiped out thousands of jobs, more than $60 billion in market value and more than $2 billion in pension plans.

At least 10 people signed up to speak at the sentencing, including an attorney for the employees' savings and stock plans, who had prepared a 30-minute statement.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061023/enron_skilling.html?.v=2

[ozymandius]

10. Anemic futures on a day without Federal reports

06:28 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0.

[UpInArms]

11. Ford to Restate Back to 2001 - losses widen

http://www.thestreet.com/_mktwrm/newsanalysis/automakers/10316746.html?cm_ven=CBSM&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Ford (F - commentary - Cramer's Take) plans to restate five years worth of financial results in order to fix the way its financing division accounted for interest rate swaps.

The Dearborn, Mich., automaker said the restatements will cover 2001 through the second quarter of this year and could affect the third quarter ended Sept. 30. As a result, Ford reported preliminary results for the third quarter, but indicated that it might make changes when it files its complete financials with regulators.

Although the final restatement amounts haven't been determined, the company believes its 2002 results "will improve materially." Other periods are still being reviewed.

For the latest quarter, Ford lost $5.8 billion, or $3.08 a share, compared with a loss of $284 million, or 15 cents a share, in the same period a year ago. Excluding items, the third-quarter loss from continuing operations was $1.2 billion, or 62 cents a share, about six times last year's loss on the same basis.

...more...

[ozymandius]

17. Is there ANY good news about Ford these days?

Forget any other U.S. auto maker (the other one). It boggles my mind how these stay-the-course corporations manage to keep the lights on.

[AnneD]

25. For what those CEO's

are getting for running the company in the ground...they should be ale to take the time from their busy day to work the light switch...Uh, they do know how to work the light right?

[UpInArms]

13. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 86.70 Change +0.38 (+0.44%)

Dollar Rebounds after Russia Says No Plans to Cut Oil Production

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Dollar_Rebounds_after_Russia_Announces_1161379688102.html

US Dollar



It has been quite a week in the currency markets. The resilience of dollar bears proved to be too strong for bulls to handle as the key levels in the currency market (1.25 in EUR/USD and 120 in USD/JPY) continued to hold. Unlike yesterday where we saw broad dollar weakness, the lack of any US data today led to mixed price action. The dollar continued to weaken against the British pound and Commodity currencies, but clawed back against the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. The EUR/USD on the other hand ended the day unchanged, reflecting the possible indecision in the markets. The main focus of the day was on North Korea and OPEC. China has toughened up its stance and has banned bank transactions between the two countries. There have been reports that North Korea apologized for the tests, but the fact that his apology was reported by a South Korean new agency that cited a diplomatic source in Beijing, which is quite a number of layers, makes it questionable. In addition, the market continues to doubt whether OPEC members will actually follow the cartel’s production cuts. The fear is that if oil prices continue to remain low, some of the smaller members would feel compelled to make up lost revenue by increasing production once again. Russia has already announced that they have no plans to back OPEC’s decision and will not be reducing oil production. There is an uncle point however. The Financial Times reports that the previous strength in oil prices has encouraged many members to overspend in increasing production. In order to meet its current pace of spending, Saudi Arabia needs oil prices to trade at a minimum of $38 a barrel which compares to $15 a barrel in the mid nineties. Their costs continue to grow by 20 percent a year, which means that if growth continues at that level, by 2010 oil prices would need to be at $65 a barrel for them to breakeven. With the spread currently at $18 a barrel, down from a peak of $40 in July, Saudi Arabia is still making money, but the lower the price of oil goes, the more concerned they will be and the harder they will push for the major cuts. Oil prices are now trading at the lowest level in 11 months, which may help the dollar start next week on a firmer footing. There are three main events that we are watching in the US next week which are Durable Goods, GDP and the Federal Reserve rate decision. Although no changes are expected in US interest rates, as usual, the FOMC statement could provide some clues on how far away we may be from another change in interest rates. More specifically, we will be looking for whether they put greater emphasis on the drop in headline inflation or the rise in core prices.

...more...

[54anickel]

14. Bush to address economy over next 2 days (fly by post)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061023/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bush_economy

snip>

White House advisers say Bush is not trying to change the subject from a deteriorating situation in Iraq, and that he will continue to talk about Iraq and the war on terrorism as the Nov. 7 election nears. But Bush advisers said they think the president should get more credit for recent positive economic news.

On Monday, Bush is participating in a small business round-table at Urban Trust Bank in Washington. The bank, set up to provide mortgages, student loans and investment opportunities mainly to minorities, was founded by Robert Louis Johnson, who started BET — formerly Black Entertainment Television. Later, Bush is doing an interview with CNBC anchor Maria Bartiromo.

Overall, the economy grew at a 2.6 percent pace from April through June, compared with a 5.6 percent pace over the first three months of the year, which was the strongest spurt in 2 1/2 years. Still, voters remain uneasy even though gasoline prices have started dropping, the stock market is hitting record highs, and interest rates on credit cards and adjustable mortgages are leveling off.

White House spokesman Tony Fratto said Bush intends to mention how optimism about the economy and rising hopes for strong third-quarter earnings lifted the Dow Jones industrial average past 12,000 for the first time on Wednesday. The Conference Board's index of U.S. leading economic indicators rose last month, and the government reported last week that consumer prices fell in September by the largest amount in 10 months.

more....Bwahahaha :rofl:

One edit - just caught a separate thread in LBN on it - http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2576024

[Ghost Dog]

27. Also (fly-by) CNN/AP: Bush to shift message to healthy economy

DU: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2575606

Edited on Mon Oct-23-06 03:20 AM by DeepModem Mom
Bush to shift message to healthy economy
October 22, 2006

WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Bush, who gets higher marks for handling the economy than running the Iraq war, is spending two days this week trying to convince voters Republicans are the best stewards of matters affecting the wallet.

/... This needs to be fought red tooth and 'gamed' (thanks, Ozy) nail...

[Hugin]

28. Based on... Uh, only the DOW?

Pretty weak... Pretty weak...

I guess padding it up 106 points today was in anticipation of this foolishness.

[AnneD]

15. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers.

I have a BIG SHOUT OUT to all of you on the SWT. I always try to catch the WSJ report with Maria Bartiromo. Her guest will be none other than the Chimperor himself next Saturday. I am sure he will be there to tout the wonderful economy. And of course-Maria will get out the knee pads. As always, she said to e-mail questions, so now is our chance. I intend to ask ...

"You continue to emphasis repeal of the inheritance tax (or death tax as you like to call it-the Paris Hilton tax as many of us outside the beltway call it) and push for additional tax cut that not only reduce the tax burden of the wealthy, but increase the tax burden on the middle class in this country. Since our economy is based 2/3rds on consumer spending...how do you expect this to help the lower and middle class or more importantly take care of the deficit and balance the budget?

Follow up question...The deficit has gotten larger, wealth has stratified further to the top 1%-which pays little if any tax burden that is proportional to that paid by the lower and middle class. How can you consider this a healthy economy for a democracy.

What question would you ask?

I suggest you get a question in early like today or tomorrow(not that I expect them to ask him-but it is worth a shot).

The addy is
[email protected]

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[ozymandius]

16. Great questions!

These need to be asked -- though I'm not holding my breath.

[VegasWolf]

19. Here's one. Just what are the "lawful" actions of the PPT? Is inflating

the value of the Dow 30 companies artifically weeks ahead of an election considered one of its "lawful" actions?

[AnneD]

24. I submitted ....

My question and followup right after I posted. I spruced it up a bit, but that was the nuts and bolts. I was trolling around and saw that Bush might be interviewed late today or tomorrow. Not that I expect even an acknowledgment- but not everyone lives on WS and how can I put this....the natives are getting restless. I am heating up the cauldron and dicing veggies as we speak. I've had enough of this rainbow stew and I am ready for some Bush Chili. :evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

18. 10:17 and everythings just great. It's a Prozac moment.

Dow 12,056.56 Up 54.19 (0.45%)
Nasdaq 2,354.59 Up 12.29 (0.52%)
S&P 500 1,372.03 Up 3.43 (0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 4.8360% Up 0.0520
NYSE Volume 428,214,000
Nasdaq Volume 347,335,000

10:00 am : Major averages are now trading in split fashion, spearheaded by turnarounds in some key sectors. Technology has inched into the green following reports that IBM (IBM 91.54 +1.06) has filed patent infringement lawsuit against Amazon.com (AMZN 32.37 -0.20). Consumer Staples has turned the corner as investors digest some encouraging news out of Wal-Mart's (WMT 49.98 +0.61)) analyst meeting while an analyst upgrade on E-Trade Financial (ET 22.05 +0.20) has given the Financials sector a boost to the upside. DJ30 +29.70 NASDAQ -0.55 SP500 -0.18 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1641/859/152 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1858/842/82 mln

[specimenfred1984]

20. Corrupt load of crap market continues

The economy is horrible, American (Ford) manufacturing is almost completely destroyed and inflation (which doesn't exist in LaLa Land) isn't going to be a problem for the Fed -- so the market goes up, straight up.

Oh yeh, Halliburton's profits were up 22%, GO TORTURE! Chimp declared the deficit has been cut in 1/2 -- WAR, WHAT WAR! Big bank profits are way up to -- FRAUD, WHAT FRAUD!

Oh well, at least healthcare is affordable, wages are keeping up with inflation and hugely indebted college grads are finding good jobs -- BARFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF!

[ozymandius]

23. The pie-in-the-sky's the limit!

1:42
Dow 12,104.11 Up 101.74 (0.85%)
Nasdaq 2,356.02 Up 13.72 (0.59%)
S&P 500 1,375.03 Up 6.43 (0.47%)
10-Yr Bond 4.8320% Up 0.0480
NYSE Volume 1,485,642,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,131,344,000

1:30 pm : Market continues to put together a solid advance ahead of tonight's earnings reports. Meanwhile, American Express (AXP 57.50 -0.54) has been the latest Dow component to beat Wall Street forecasts. However, with the stock hitting a 52-week high last Wednesday, investors are consolidating recent gains after revenues checked in lighter than expected, stalling the Dow's momentum to the upside. DJ30 +109.98 NASDAQ +15.95 SP500 +7.09 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1408/1541/1.07 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1359/1815/842 mln

[VegasWolf]

26. Hecka'va job DOWnie! nt

[ozymandius]

29. Here's how the story ends. (spoiler)

Dow 12,116.91 Up 114.54 (0.95%)
Nasdaq 2,355.56 Up 13.26 (0.57%)
S&P 500 1,377.02 Up 8.42 (0.62%)
10-Yr Bond 4.8260% Up 0.0420
NYSE Volume 2,467,298,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,904,947,000

After stumbling out of the gate amid typical nervousness ahead of a two-day FOMC meeting, it didn't take long for the market's underlying bullish tone to resurface and again sideline those trying to fight the upward trend in equities, especially in large-cap names.

Among the few catalysts providing a floor of buying support Monday was another batch of better than expected earnings, renewed optimism about Wal-Mart's growth strategy, and another decline in oil prices.

The biggest name on today's calendar was AT&T (T 34.71 +0.27), whose 74% year/year earnings growth plays into Overweight rating on Telecom and further supports another quarter of double-digit profit growth for the S&P 500. Over 70% of the more than 150 S&P 500 companies reporting quarterly results thus far have beaten expectations. That leaves aggregate Q3 operating earnings on pace to rise about 18%, above the 14% gain expected prior to the start of the earnings season.

However, the biggest news item among blue chips came from Wal-Mart (WMT 51.17 +1.80). The retailer surged 3.7% to a new 52-week high after saying it will significantly reduce capital expenditures to drive overall returns - an initiative that should lead to improved profitability.

Also helping the Dow close at a new record high was General Motors (GM 35.06 +1.72). The stock surged 5.7% to its best level in 12 months in anticipation it will turn in a surprisingly strong report tomorrow following Ford Motor's (F 7.90 -0.11) widely expected disappointment this morning.

The other Dow component topping analysts' expectations today was American Express (AXP 57.50 -0.54). The stock, which hit a 52-week high last Wednesday, dropped 2.8% after Q3 revenues checked in lighter than expected. AXP was one of only four Dow components to close lower. DJ30 +114.54 NASDAQ +13.26 SP500 +8.42 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1520/1547/1.85 nlm NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1371/1875/1.53 bln

[54anickel]

30. ZOWIE WOW WOW!!! A reverse pie-hole? Sheesh, this reminds

me of the day after the '04 election. Elation all around that day. Can they keep up the facade until Nov 7, then through the traditional year end rally? Santa may be especially good to "Markteers" this year.

Keep pumping!