NYT frontpage: Employers Balk at New Hiring, Despite Growth

[DeepModem Mom]

....chief executives have held back on hiring, concerned that the third-quarter surge would turn out to be an anomaly, overly dependent on the mortgage refinancings and tax-cut stimulus that are beginning to lose their impact. Forecasters surveyed by Blue Chip Economic Indicators agree with the executives: their consensus estimate of economic growth in the fourth quarter is 3.6 percent at an annual rate.

"There is no question that company managers are trying to squeeze every ounce they can from their existing employees before they give in to hiring," said Nariman Bahravesh, chief economist at Global Insight, a data-gathering and forecasting service.

Hints of that squeezing were sprinkled through the bureau's employment report. Hours worked, including overtime, were up. Rather than hire, employers brought in more temporary workers, whose numbers grew in November by 20,800, after an average monthly gain of 15,000 from July through October.

Meanwhile, the long-term unemployed — those seeking jobs for six months or more — grew to 23.7 percent of all the unemployed, the highest level since July 1983, when the jobless rate was a much more drastic 9.4 percent.


http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/06/business/06ECON.html?pagewanted=all&position=

[UpInArms]

1. stupid Fed is going to destroy the dollar

thinking that it will save the BFEE

The Fed's policy makers are now expected to leave rates unchanged when they meet Tuesday, and well into the coming election year, as well.

and way down in the article was this little nugget of truth

"There is no question that company managers are trying to squeeze every ounce they can from their existing employees before they give in to hiring," said Nariman Bahravesh, chief economist at Global Insight, a data-gathering and forecasting service.

but the spin is on - remember to put on a cheery face to boost the *Co!

[54anickel]

2. For those DUers arguing the UE rate numbers and data, there's this tidbit

at the end of the article. Seems there is just as much disagreement at the top.

The gradual decline in the unemployment rate, from a high of 6.4 percent in June, puzzled economists. Many argue that job growth, as measured by the bureau's "payroll" survey of 300,000 establishments, must exceed 200,000 a month to make a dent in the unemployment rate. Part of the explanation lies in the decline in the so-called labor force participation rate, the percentage of the population either working or seeking a job but unemployed.

As an economy improves, people typically grow more optimistic about finding a job and re-entering the labor force, swelling the ranks of the unemployed. But that has not happened in this recovery. The labor force participation rate, in fact, has been stuck at 66.3 percent since July. Three years ago, just before the recession started, it was 67 percent.

The other factor is the method used to determine the unemployment rate. While the bureau considers the job count in the payroll survey much more accurate than the job count in its more subjective monthly survey of 55,000 households, it nevertheless uses the household survey to determine the unemployment rate. That survey shows a much sharper increase in employment than the payroll survey — including a spectacular increase in November of 589,000 jobs — helping to explain why the unemployment rate is falling, and convincing some economists that the household survey is a better measure of job growth in the current recovery.

[jmcgowanjm]

3. Americans will work for Indian wages

While cMarket has solved its immediate
challenge, the implications of Jon's approach
are potentially mind-bending. What if other
companies begin taking the same approach --
offering Indian-style wages to American workers?

http://businessweek.com/smallbiz/content/dec2003/sb2003122_8887.htm


U-6 Total unemployed, plus all marginally
attached workers,
plus total employed part time for economic
reasons, as a
percent of the civilian labor force plus
all marginally
attached workers.........................................
Nov. Oct. Nov.
2002 2003 2003
9.4 9.5 9.7

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2003/dec2003/jobs-d06.shtml

[aquart]

4. So exactly WHAT is growing?

Executive salaries?

[54anickel]

5. More than likely, through profit sharing. 1 trillion in profits this year

was reported in several articles.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

6. Another market bubble. When this one goes, whatever confidence...

...anyone still had in the Stock Market will be completely gone.

[54anickel]

7. Yeo. Too many bubbles and our economy has been reduced to one big

confidence game.