Gasoline prices forcast to decline dramatically this Fall.

[Clarkie1]

Gas may be headed back near $2
Industry analyst sees prices between $2 and $2.50 by Thanksgiving.
August 30 2006: 6:26 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The recent drop in prices at the pump could pick up steam, driving gasoline sharply lower in coming months.

"I'd say $2 to $2.50," said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service. "Once you get past Sept. 15, it's really a downhill game."

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/30/news/economy/gas_prices/index.htm

[MichiganVote]

1. E-L-E-C-T-I-O-N

[Tight_rope]

69. Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winner!

:thumbsup:

[blm]

2. And corpmedia will point to every other reason they're given except the

truth - - elections.

[AX10]

3. ELECTION!, ELECTION!, ELECTION!, ELECTION!, ELECTION!,

ELECTION!, ELECTION!, ELECTION!, ELECTION!, ELECTION!, ELECTION!!!!!1

[bdamomma]

38. of course, they will do anything to manipulate the American people

[0007]

44. Who wouldn't guessed?

The sheeple haven't a clue what junior's up too!!

[Jackpine Radical]

4. Sure--prices drop precipitously through early November.

Then, after a certain Tuesday in that month, something goes wrong with the supply--or an estimate of the reserves turns out to be wrong--or something--and prices shoot back up in time for Christmas.

Guess which Tuesday I'm talking about.

[Tippy]

37. Prices have been falling almost daily here

Started in early Aug....today one has gas for $2.37...I think they realized if they waited until Oct. to drop the prices no one would by it...but if they start early, like here, well it will fool a lot of people. I think it's safe to say... Bush and big oil are buying votes.

[liberal N proud]

5. Until November 8th

When they will make a dramatic recovery and climb to record prices.

The oil companies must do everything in their power to help retain the oil friendly regime in Washington

[expatriot]

9. No, evening of the 7th, time depends on when polls close in the area nt

[liberal N proud]

13. I was speculating that they would wait until the AM of the 8th

If the stations are open 24 hours, I am sure they will raise prices as soon as the polls close in their areas.

[Demeter]

6. Considering It's Already Been $2.46 In Ann Arbor

not so bold a prediction.

[The Straight Story]

29. $2.25 here in Columbus late today (nt)

[noonwitch]

67. $2.35 on E. 8 Mile in Warren/Detroit this morning

Between Dequindre and Mound. On the Detroit side, there is a Sunoco, a Firebird, a Quick Stop and a Citgo. All are around $2.35.
On the Warren side, there is a Marathon with the same price, for cash only purchases.

[Seeking Serenity]

7. Mmm-mm, I'll bet they are

'cause this wouldn't be an election year, now, would it?

[Tess49]

12. Yep. And then right after the election they will impose sanctions

against Iran, and they will go sky high again, with everyone but the little guy making out like a bandit.

[Olney Blue]

8. This is good news for alot of struggling families and businesses.

However, it won't last say, past November.

[HockeyMom]

10. Just in time

for the winter heating season too.

[WePurrsevere]

16. It will sure help if it stays down near $2. otherwise it will be a long

cold winter for many of us in the Northern US. (and of course the Republicans cut back Fed. HEAP assistance... the bastards.)

[David Zephyr]

11. Enjoy it. It's only here until December.

Poor Jimmy Carter was the first to be petro'd back in 1980. Gasoline shortage gave way to gasoline overflowing after Reagan got into office.

It's a national rite now.

[okieinpain]

49. exactly..

[Teaser]

14. won't quite happen

not to the degree their shouting from the rooftops anyway. Some decline after the summer driving season is normal. But it will be closer ro 2.50 than 2.00.

[WestHoustonDem]

15. Amazing coincidence that this only seems to happen in even numbered

years. :shrug:

[rocktivity]

17. I paid $2.57 a gallon just a few hours ago

near Newark, NJ. It could very well get BELOW $2 before the election--I mean, the winter! It dropped to around ONE dollar after 9/11.

:headbang:
rocknation

[kysrsoze]

40. Well, that's great. It's still $3.29/gal for regular in Chicago

We're continuing to get gouged. It's about $3.09 in the burbs. Guess they don't consider our area "in play."

[w4rma]

18. Fill your tanks and buy oil commodities early November.

You are guaranteed to make money if you sell after election day.

[Egalitarian]

51. Exactly what I was thinking(nt)

[mccoyn]

56. Self-fullfilling prophecy.

[stepnw1f]

19. Guess the Prices Were Artificially Hiked to Begin With

The price will go low until election day, then back up again. NOW YOU KNOW THE GOP AND BIG OIL ARE ONE IN THE SAME!

IRAQ=OIL

[Cobalt Violet]

20. It'll go up after Xmas.

[BushOut06]

21. The one thing Bush does have control over, duh!

Soak the American people for a few years, help his Big Oil buddies earn record profits, then lower gas prices a little bit in time for elections. And yet, the sheeple of America will probably thank Bush for it.

[Quakerfriend]

22. Oh, fancy that and what luck- Lots of oil suddenly discovered

in the Gulf of Mexico- Must be nearing Nov.

[Botany]

23. Help me out a little .... you can jack it up to $4.00/gal in december

[aasleka]

24. Whats changed so drastically to see this cut?

Isreal still making incursions, pipeline still shutdown and in the middle of hurricane season....

Whats changed?

The population has awoken, the only really scary thing is when the bastards in power realize it is going to take another large attack to cow them again.

[razors edge]

25. I feel they have realized this

back when they planned this all in a bunker, dick and rummy, many years ago. funny how men who live in caves have come back to such prominence.

[mccoyn]

57. A conflict with Israel doesn't necessarily lead to WW3

A month ago that statement would have been in doubt.

[AngryAmish]

58. Technical reasons

(from what I heard on NPR) Oil inventories are getting very high. Oil futures for a while have been a one way bet because China and India would buy your future no matter what at a profit. Institutional investors and hedge funds have been buying futures because of this. This bids up the price of oil because more competition for the oil even when the owners of the futures only intend to resell the oil.

Well, I am told we are running out of places to store oil. Inventories are way up. There is stored oil that will have to be sold.

I do not know enough about the market right now to invest one way or the other but if I would guess I would say the price of oil will go down and dramatically. That is what happened in the past.

[DeepModem Mom]

26. K&R

[corporatemedia]

27. LBN? 8/30/06 ! (A similar story was previously posted.)

[Trajan]

28. We have always known ...

The the GOP had the reins on the tap, and they, through their conspiratorially collusive relationship with their supporters in Big Oil, have been milking the public, INCLUDING their lame brain-dead GOP electorate and the 'small business owners', whom they rape with equal nonchalance ....

There has been a quid pro quo for between the GOP and their corporate supporters : HUGE Tax cuts, access AND control of public markets, along with 'tax incentives', IE handouts from the public tax revenues, for 'exploration' .... in return: they pump up GOP campaign coffers with their ill gotten gains, and use their control of media to deny a public discourse on these matters ...

WHO has a chart showing gas/oil prices, versus election year politics ?

WHO can show that oil and gas suddenly DROP before election time ? ...

WHO can show that, even more extraordinary now, that gas is going DOWN, even when OIL availability is at near all time lows ? ... EVEN when Oil prices are at near record levels ? ....

This is nothing but political manipulation ....

[OneBlueSky]

30. so . . . they artificially jacked up the prices to gouge us out of . . .

billions and billions of dollars, resulting in record (and obscene) profits and multi-million dollar salaries and bonuses for oil company executives . . .

either they figure they have enough or, more likely, they're taking a little time off to tally and stash their ill-gotten gains and try to re-elect/re-select a Republican Congress . . .

I'm guessing the latter . . .

[highnooner]

31. Current catalyst for price drop

Major oil discovery could boost U.S. reserves by half

Steven Mufson, The Washington Post

WASHINGTON - An oil discovery by Chevron Corp. has bolstered prospects that petroleum companies will be able to tap giant reserves that lie far beneath the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Oil analysts and company executives said newly released test results from a well 175 miles off the coast of Louisiana indicate that the oil industry will be able to recover more than 3 billion barrels, and perhaps as much as 15 billion barrels, of oil from a geological area known as the lower tertiary trend, making it the biggest addition to U.S. petroleum reserves in decades. The upper end of the estimate could boost U.S. reserves by 50 percent.

"This looks to be the biggest discovery in the United States in a generation, really since the discovery of Prudhoe Bay 38 years ago," said Daniel Yergin, chairman of the consulting firm Cambridge Energy Research Associates Inc.

Cambridge Energy forecasts that the deep-water area of the Gulf of Mexico will produce 800,000 barrels of oil a day within seven years and account for 11 percent of U.S. oil production. That would not solve the world's energy problem or eliminate U.S. reliance on oil imports, but it would help stabilize U.S. oil production, which has been declining, and cover some of the world's rising demand for petroleum. Prudhoe Bay, in northern Alaska, produced about 1.5 million barrels a day at its peak.

http://www.newsobserver.com/102/story/483096.html

[truthisfreedom]

32. it's called "temp-o-dip." and they do it to support the military indust-

rial complex, the prison industrial complex, and, moreover, the economy of the nation.

it's all a joke. they manipulate prices to keep kids in power.


they don't want the real adults in power, the DEMOCRATIC PARTY.

[MurrayDelph]

70. They are hedging their bets

by lowering their prices before the election, they are trying to help the Republicans.

If the Republicans win, they can immediately raise their prices.

If the Democrats win, they are hoping the lower prices will dissuade the Dems from
investigating the price-gouging.

[Vidar]

33. Why don't we just rename the parties Exxon & Chevron?.

[Ragin_mad]

34. The same thing happened this time last year as well

[Javaman]

35. several reasons...

1)election.

2)trying to keep a dying US auto industry from collapsing.

3)election.

4)keep people from using less gas. aka conserving.

5)election.

[Wednesdays]

36. Hmm! Maybe it'll go down below $1.00, like it was during

the...uh...Clinton era?

[Psephos]

50. I hope not

That will be the end of development of alternatives.

Peace.

[No Exit]

55. Oh, there they go, those naive people, crediting Clinton with keeping

down the price of a gallon of gas.

Silly! Such silly little people who know nothing of High Finance--thinking that the president can actually have an influence on the price of a gallon of gas! The president has nothing to do with it!:sarcasm:

[The Wielding Truth]

39. Buy your stock now cause even if prices go down profits always go up.

[TacticalPeek]

41. 1000 words >

http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com

[Jeroen]

59. Incredible! MUST SEE. That info deserves its own post n/t

[xchrom]

42. amen chorus here -- just in time for the election.

not a damn thing to be done about the oil industries manipulation of american politics.

yet.

[bikebloke]

43. Golly, I'm going to ditch my bike.

And buy a Hummer.....yeeeeeee hawwwwww!

[Search Party]

45. SW MO

2.39 a gallon in SW Missouri.

Dropped 4 times yesterday, started the day at 2.53

[plasticsundance]

46. Oil will find a level off point between $65 - $68 a barrel ...

before it ascends towards $80 dollars a barrel near late Spring 07. Oil will not drop precipitously, because the fundamentals around the dollar are still weak, and the fact that hedging is a game popular in the future markets.

[Terry in Austin]

60. Oh yeah -- and production is peaking (n/t)

[onenote]

47. I'll be surprised if it gets down to $2 (average nationwide)

The last time the national retail regular gas price averaged around $2 was March 05 and the price of a barrel of crude was under $50. The low point in 2006 was in January, when the retail price of conventional regular gas averaged around 2.30 and the crude price was around $55. As of 9/4/06, the average conventional regular gas price ranged from $2.57 in the midwest to over $2.90 in the ROcky Mountain states and crude was still around $66 a gallon. I just don't see crude dropping down into the mid-fifty dollar range, but then again, it wouldn't be the first time I was surprised by these things.

[cquik18]

48. Gas prices dropping?

Hmm....you don't think it has anything to do with the upcoming elections, do you? NAAAAAAHHHH!

WE AIN'T FALLING FOR IT.

[lostinacause]

52. I love these comments about how Bush is responsible for oil prices.

You would think that if he were able to orchestrate a major collusive effort that it would be done gradually not to give people the shock of gas prices. Also notice that gas prices have increased at times that things were going worse for him. Other things about the timing don’t make sense assuming he has such powers.

Also, as of yet I have yet to see a convincing statistical argument that shows the existence of collusion to the extent that many people here are suggesting. There is significant data available given the existence of functioning commodity markets and other records that makes the large scale collusion that some are suggesting very apparent. I also have yet to hear any prominent economists in an academic setting suggest the level of collusion that people here are suggesting.

BTW oil is not like some other goods, oil companies cannot set the price because it is relatively uniform. That is that there are many substitutes that are both perfect and imperfect thus any collusive agreement must be made using quantities produced (such as OPEC has done in the past). As this is the case anyone who claims that Oil companies can increase both price and quantity at the same time (given that there are no exogenous shocks) is wrong.

[No Exit]

54. Please don't hand me that bullshit.

Bush (and his family) is a player on the international financial scene. Bush (along with his family) is a player on the international oil scene. He can indeed make at least a short-term influence on the price of a gallon of gas inside the U.S.

Then there is the question of the petrodollar. Iraq defied the petrodollar by trying to trade oil in something other than dollars. Iran is doing the same thing. What a coincidence that these two countries have been Bush's prime targets.

Clinton kept the price of a gallon of gas down somewhat by releasing some of the strategic reserves. Bush has refused to do that. In fact, he is doing the opposite. While it is unlikely that any one entity, especially a political entity, can have strong control of the price of a gallon of gas in the U.S., an entity can indeed have SOME control of it.

And btw, before 2000, Bush advertised to the public that his influence in the oil industry would be beneficial for American oil consumers. So I guess you're saying he was lying...

[lostinacause]

61. Think about what I wrote for a second. I did not say he couldn't affect

oil prices. I said that if he effected oil prices in a significant way that it would be obvious given the nature of the industry. The price decreasing and the possibility for collusion is not sufficient to say that collusion is indeed happening. Further in the absence of any of the signs of collusion everything that you say is rhetoric; it lacks any substantial meaning but sounds correct to the person with typical knowledge in the relevant areas.

Now to address the points individually:

While Bush can affect the price of oil, because of the paper trail that is left market it would be painfully obvious what he was doing. Even if he could somehow hide what he was doing he would have to incur large losses to do so. Thus using future markets would not be feasible. As I said before it would have to be a collusive effort among producers.

The so called petrodollar is overrated. While there are short term negative consequences to the transition and fiscal and monetary policies become a little less effective the petrodollar is just part of a growing trend of the decreasing importance of America in the world markets. To any extent that it governs policy it shouldn’t.

There is no way to keep the price down in the long run through the use of strategic. Using strategic reserves prevents the use of them in the future and in theory means they have to be replaced leading to the prices being higher then the market price as the reserves are being replaced.

Finally when Bush said what he said about his influence being beneficial to America he may or may have not been lying. Lying involves intent. He was at the very least wrong and at the very worst lying. Frankly, Bush saying something like this is not surprising; politicians (of all ilk) say things like this all the time.

[No Exit]

65. Bush has earned my hatred and distrust. I will not countenance a defense

of him. I was once a supporter of republicans; I voted for this murdering, warmongering, craven piece of shit in 2000. I am not a knee-jerk Bush-basher. Everything I think about this piece of shit is based on what I have seen during the last 6 years.

"Further in the absence of any of the signs of collusion everything that you say is rhetoric"...
Innocent till proven guilty? Yeah, okay. I guess that's our law, but I resent having to apply that law to a man (Bush) who is working so very hard to undermine it.

... "it lacks any substantial meaning but sounds correct to the person with typical knowledge in the relevant areas."
Perception is everything in politics. The majority of voters are "persons with typical knowledge in the relevant areas."

"While Bush can affect the price of oil, because of the paper trail that is left market it would be painfully obvious what he was doing."
It may be painfully obvious to those who have studied economics, or who have studied the oil industry, but it is not "painfully obvious" to "the person with typical knowledge in the relevant areas." The great majority of people spend their time going about their own business--going to work, that is, and then getting themselves a meal, and then going to bed. The fact that 43% of this population still conflates the (phony) "Saddam threat" with the 9/11 event shows us just how easily fooled this population is.

"Even if he could somehow hide what he was doing he would have to incur large losses to do so." I disagree. A sophisticated financial player can set himself/itself up to "bet" on either side of ANY financial event. That is, each event that is someone's loss is also someone else's gain. Something like the Bush financial empire can arrange to be on the winning side if it knows in advance what the president will do.

"As I said before it would have to be a collusive effort among producers." I don't see that as impossible. Large financial powers have indeed acted in concert before--when it was to their mutual advantage.

"The so called petrodollar is overrated." Maybe, maybe not. It still functions as a convenient way for American financial powers to extend their tentacles into the holdings of non-American financial powers.

"There is no way to keep the price down in the long run through the use of strategic." Well then, how DID the price stay comparatively much lower during Clinton? Oh, wait, don't tell me: you're going to say Clinton was lucky, right? I used to believe stuff like that. And maybe Clinton WAS lucky--but I'm damned if I'm going to believe that Mr. Big Oil (Bush) is completely without influence on his good friends, the people who move gasoline prices.

"Finally when Bush said what he said about his influence being beneficial to America he may or may have not been lying. Lying involves intent." Now you've entered my own area of expertise. This assertion sounds exactly like an argument against a criminal conviction. "They must prove INTENT, ladies and gentlemen!" Well, intent is almost never proved by direct evidence; it is almost always proved by circumstantial evidence. And there is so much circumstantial evidence of Bush's bad intent, it's like an avalanche trembling on the side of one of those melting Arctic ice caps.

"He was at the very least wrong and at the very worst lying. Frankly, Bush saying something like this is not surprising; politicians (of all ilk) say things like this all the time." Oh, come now. We are WAAAAY past the time when Bush could be defended by this "innocent till proven guilty" principle, and the "everybody does it" defense will NOT work for the leader of a party which led the partisan political lynching of Clinton. How very, very, well I remember that during the Clinton years, when democrats would shrug and say, "c'mon, LOTSA guys cheat on their wives", repukes would get all red in the face and shout, "Oh, so everybody does it, so that makes it all alright? Hey, lissen, CHARACTER COUNTS!" I know, because, sadly, I was one of those people who rejected the "everybody does it" defense of Clinton. And I'm sure as hell not going to accept that defense on behalf of a man who is a million times worse than Clinton ever was. Ditto for the "innocent till proven guilty" principle: Bush has forever forfeited his right to such a presumption. He is a murdering warmonger.

I remember avidly reading the "Clinton Death List". Bush has exceeded Clinton's record of "hits" by about 2600 by now. Some would say he has exceeded the "Clinton Death List" by tens of thousands. (I'm not endorsing the validity of the "Clinton Death List". It turned out to be mostly crap anyway.)

[No Exit]

53. Golly gee--only $2.00/gallon?

What a bargain.:sarcasm:

Before this mental defective crook was president, it was nearer to $1.00/gallon.

Bring on the low gas prices! I'll thank all the repukes--by voting their sorry asses OUT.

Oh, and by the way... I remember when people tried to credit Clinton with keeping gas prices down, and always some repuke would say, "The president has no control over the price of gasoline!" Well, THAT one sure turned out to be bullshit.

Let's always remember, the president DOES have SOME modicum of control over the price of a gallon of gasoline. We're seeing it proved right now. (We saw it proved by Clinton... but some of us, to our shame, refused to believe it.)

[sarcasmo]

62. Kick to the top. Fall now and rise when we invade Iran or after the

ELECTION.

[gilpo]

63. At this rate it will be below $2

http://66.70.86.46/test.gaschart?Country=Canada&Crude=f&Period=12&Areas=TwinCities,USA%20Average,&Unit=US%20$/G

[trogdor]

64. $2.50 I'd buy.

But we've seen the last of sub-$2 gas. Sorry.

[oneinok]

66. at $2.25 in Oklahoma

In Poteau Oklahoma it is $2.25 a gal.

[jdadd]

68. If my memory serves me right....

gasoline prices started rising before the selection in 2000. I was laughed at by my co workers when I would suggest that the "powers that be" were doing this to blame Clinton and swing voters to *.

[mtnester]

71. Even my 25 year old young 'un called me last week and SAID

"Hey Mom, how about them gas prices? Just in time for the election huh?"


More people are wise to this matter than the Repub machine thinketh. People, in general, have LONG memories about things that hurt them directly.

[BrokenBeyondRepair]

72. a traders perspective;

is anybody afraid that oil is going to fall back a ton here??????....of course you are.....the media is all bearish...geez listen to CNBC.....it all bad news!!!!!

and then class what are you supposed to do according to Richard Ney and the contrarian theory trade technique

yes....BUY.......

where can Natty gas go from here...where can oil.....is these larger volumes lately in energy????

YES..!!!!!! what is the nature of the volumes???? insty sell???? insty buy????...short covering????.....retail buy???? retail sell

lets take the retail right off the table....trust me...they cannot make the spikes i am seeing in volume....and so we have a play here in institutional trading.....so we go to iwatch to determine the across the board sector trade that is going on by looking at a bunch of energy names to determine accumulation or distribution modes!!!!!

once that is done we can see the energy complex is being bought......these insty buyers cause the MM to lower!!!!!!! price to find more shares to buy....they appear to have been bought so hard as to force some stops killing moves down.....this is why they are trading so radically...with quick moves down and v moves back up...that is the hallmark of too many buyers!!!!!.....insty places big buy order...MM sells large block and then moves issue down to recoup sahres....once he has.....(usually he must take out a key stops point for a large block) he immediately rushes back up to where the order came in at to keep the shares from being stolen from him!!!! get it....

how do you feel about stops now????? understand the MM sees all of them......he knows exactly waht he needs to do to recoup his book......i do NOT USE STOPS!!!!!.......if you must MAKE SURE YOU TRAIL THEM IN BEHIND YOUR POSITIONS...this way if he steals some shares from you he doesnt take your whole position

sorry i am sure i digressed......again looks like we are setting in for a rally.....

here is the buy action in energy

http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/i...

http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/i...

the only panic is retail...and they are panicked because the media has fed them reasons to panick....do you see how it all works.....a while back i had said you need to think more like an insty.....or...buy the panic that they set up and then sell their rally that of course they set up as well

conspiracy some say...um...no....it is wall street!!!!....ill say again..the power is the insty and hedge trade....the MM/specialist facilitates his replace book needs(profits sometimes from a move by placing a short in his own issue...allowed by sec) and the retail....whom of course is the bagholder....simply because he doesnt understand the contrarian nature of the makret....get that...and you will have to keys to the kingdom

[bamacrat]

73. I love the dropping prices but.........

do the pukes think this will work? It may, given the intelligence level of many Amrrrcuns.