MSNBC: Economists predict strongest holiday season in 4 years

[kysrsoze]

After last year’s lackluster holiday season, many forecasters expect sales of general merchandise to grow 6 or 7 percent over last year’s level, which would make it the best season since 1999.

“Everything is coming into place to create a strong holiday season,” said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia Securities. “The economy is clearly gaining momentum. … Consumer confidence is rebounding. The stock market has been up.” Even the weather has been cooperating across much of the nation, Vitner said, pointing to recent subfreezing temperatures, which he said is a prerequisite for sweaters to move off the shelves.

David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor’s, agreed that consumers are likely to be in a much better mood than they were a year ago, when the Iraq war was looming, unemployment was rising and the stock market was suffering its worst losses in three decades. “People have money,” Wyss said. “The jobs situation is getting better. I think they’re going to be out doing their best to keep retailers happy.”


http://msnbc.com/news/996662.asp?0cv=CB10


OpEd: Ummmm, huh? Are they kidding? 6 to 7% increase? 3rd quarter is over. EVERYONE I know is planning on spending less money this year. My family is doing christmas gift lottery again. I really liked this line: "I think they’re going to be out doing their best to keep retailers happy." Personally, I think me and my retailer have different goals.

[Cush]

1. Um...

The other week they said that they expected another bad season, BUT the wealthy chains (meaning stores for the rich) were expecting big business.

They were talking about how they were expecting to sell thousand dollar watches, earrings, etc.

[cthrumatrix]

18. up is down....left is right....how can you put faith in the "spin"

[Doc_Technical]

26. Up is down

"Right is in, left is out

twist and shout

I love my car and house"


Yuppie Drone by the Pheromones

[grasswire]

2. this is the total opposite...

...of the other reporting we've seen. Store inventories are down, they said last week, because credit is maxed out for American families. Stores are selling last years' goods and marking it up, we read last week.

I don't believe this. It's meant to goose people to shop this coming Friday.

[TXDemGal]

3. Reads like propaganda to me

Go out and SPEND, SPEND, SPEND...cuz we tole' you everyone else is gonna do it!

[kysrsoze]

5. Exactly - here's another gem of a quote

“Americans appear to be ready to shop and ready to spend, just in time for the biggest shopping season of the year,” said Tracy Mullin, president and chief executive officer of the (National Retail Federation) retail trade group."

Hee hee. I know I am!

[Cocoa]

13. there was another angle to the propaganda

a couple of weeks ago, there was a big media hype about how big everyone's tax refund was going to be after the new year, it smelled of propaganda to get people to go into debt on holiday spending.

[htuttle]

16. You got it

You wouldn't want to be outdone by one of your relatives around the Xmas tree, would you? Think of the embarrassment!

[Ilsa]

4. I took a rather unscientific poll

at another forum. 8 out of 10 said they would spend the same or less than last year. Only one person spends until she passes out. Another paced herself during the year, so she's done already.

We will be spending much less this year. We don't feel very secure about the future in the slightest.

[elfin]

6. Not at my house

Scaling back - and won't go to Walmart to do it - more home made stuff.

[dArKeR]

7. Retail sales fall on auto, furniture declines - Canada

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20031124.wretail1124/BNStory/Business/

[Media_Lies_Daily]

8. Let's see...didn't Toys-R-Us announce lower than predicted earnings...

...and their plans to close quite a few stores?

And why would consumers be in such a great mood when the Iraq war is doing a lot more than "looming", and has already devestated the holiday period for more than 430 families?

Jobs are getting better? Does he mean all of those temps and part-timers that will be going home after the first week in January?

And exactly who besides the very wealthy have money to spend??

Actually, I feel sorry for Mr. Vitner...his head is so far up his ass he can no longer see the real world.

[alcuno]

9. That's exactly what they said last year.

I'll believe it when I see it.

[madrchsod]

10. it`s raining pennies from heaven!

yes a chicken in every pot! happy days are here again,yes happy days are here again!!!
brother can you spare a dime?.... my forgotten man.........

[whathappened]

11. great to hear

that so many have the money to shop tell they drop , hope there good news will come true for the people who are slaveing on these low paying jobs at these stores , as far as my family we have less to spend this year

[dArKeR]

12. There will be a surge in S. Cal because of the fire but that will be

insurance claims, which will result in higher premiums/rates over all and less profitability to the insurance compaines. And the people with no insurance or undercovered will have to dip into savings/credit thus get into debt with less money to spend in the future and more foreclosures/bankruptcies.

And our economy is only 'showing signs of right track' after Bush has spent our 20 years life's paying taxes revenue, into debt Fed. Gov., to pay for the Butching in Afghanistan and Iraq with no end in site? All those billions of dollars just spent in the last 2.5 years to jump start the economy with terrorism as the exuse and we're only at 'showing signs of right track?'

Where would be today if Clinton's economic plans were kept in place? Instead of 3 years down and a possibly 2 months up. To financial accountant I think that means we're 300% in the Red under Bush. But then we only see Arthur Anderson guest types on the American Media Whore Corporate Outlets.

[cosmicdot]

14. take the poll in the left margin

sorry, we consumed with abandon 3rd quarter (not)


How much do you plan to spend on holiday gifts?
* 369 responses
Under $100
13%
$100 to $250
18%
$250 to $500
21%
More than $500
47%

Where do you plan to do most of your holiday shopping?
* 363 responses
At the mall
35%
At big discount stores
23%
Downtown or neighborhood stores
12%
Online or mail order
29%

"The economy is clearly gaining momentum." - Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia Securities

“People have money” - David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor’s

I'd love to send them their own words come January.

Imagine they both have nice 6 digit salaries coming in, if not 2.

[The Backlash Cometh]

15. They must be drunk.

We're back to pulling names out of a hat and each adult only gets one $25.00 gift from a Kris Kindle. Only the grandparents and the kids get unlimited gifts.

[qanda]

17. We're struggling to pay bills and

We'll probably only buy for the children. Even my family members who are pretty "well-off" are struggling some. I'm sure that most of the spending will be on credit. At some point the bill is going to come due on American families and the US Government.

[dobak]

19. I work retail....

We just finished November's fiscal month and it was the worst month in the last year.

We missed our plan by 15% after making it for 6 straight months.

Things are not better.

[shanti]

20. yeah right....

i DON'T think so.

[Voltaire99]

21. Singlehandedly saved the US economy today

Bought a box of logs. And a talking Homer Simpson beer opener.

Yes, I'm a patriotic hero, but don't mention it - I'd do anything for Amurrica!

[havocmom]

22. I'll have what they're drinking

must have a helluva kick

[54anickel]

23. Happy new everywhere. Notice the Market today, up with absolutely

no economic data to drive it in that direction. Ah yes this is the week they must pull out all stops to ease peoples worries on the economy. Gotta get 'em in the mood to shop, shop, shop.
Maybe a few rich specialty stores but WalMart, Target and Toys R Us all recently announced lower expectations for the holiday season.
I know we are cutting way back as are most family and friends.

[Nevernose]

24. They obviously aren't looking at MY bank statement (n/t)

[seasat]

25. I'm doing good but my relatives are not.

I won't be spending as much this Christmas season since I will be helping some of them out that just got laid off. I'm rebuilding my old car to give to some in-laws. They'll be giving everyone pictures with home made frames for Christmas. My Republican Brother will not be giving any gifts except for the kids since they are too tight this year. Also, we've already purchased most of our gifts. My wife hit all the sales along the year. I'm really pessimistic about this economy and told my wife that we need to save to buffer ourselves in case Bush's weak dollar policy results in a big crash.

[WhereIsMyFreedom]

27. No gift buying for me this year

I plan to save all my money and wait until next year after a Dem takes office. Then I'll spend with abandon to do my part in jumpstarting the economy. I have no interest in helping Shrub's numbers.

[truthisfreedom]

28. i guess bush has to pray for more bad weather. monsoons, blizzards,

typhoons, hurricanes, thunderstorms, tornados, droughts, locusts, sunspots, lightning strikes, flash floods, sunshowers, golfball-sized hail, sleet, sneet, snizzle, drizzle, earthquakes, lava-spewing volcanos, eclipses, moonless nights, power failures, straght-line winds, cyclones, tsunamis, floods, when the levi breaks, ruptured dams, bursting storm sewers, gas leaks, petrol spills, forest fires, avalanche, rock falls, landslides... basically bushco needs bad luck for the American people so we will spend, spend, spend. spend our way out of bushville and all the way into the holy bushland 2004. merry bushmas, everyone! and a happy bush year! oh, that was insensitive of me. happy bushidays.

[johnnywalker]

29. NO STOPPING AND THINKING ALLOWED!

keep moving and spending...
Out there is a Perfect Engine, an
Eating Machine that is a miracle of
evolution -- it swims and eats and
that's all. "Jaws"

[Marlie]

30. Luxury Cars

I did read an article that luxury cars are selling like hotcakes.
Yep, some of the ultra rich will be popping for Christmas -
their tax refund will more than cover their expenses. As for the
middle class and poor - Christmas won't be too merry.

[zelda7743]

31. hmmmm

I'm going to be spending a lot less. And I refuse to shop at chain stores. I'm going to send everyone fresh fruit this year and support our local growers.

[stewert]

32. I Heard Different.........

I just saw a guy on CNBC today who predicted 3 to 4 percent increase in sales for this
holiday season. The host of the show told him sales increase 5 to 6 percent every year,
and he told the guy they would probably increase 5 to 6 percent this year too.

The guest said he don't agree, then he predicted a 3 to 4 percent increase. I can not
remember who the guest was but it was a CNBC show. I think he was a wall street
economist or something like that.

[Mr_Bleedingheart]

33. I have been hearing this rosey forcast from several sources

but I still don't quite believe it.

Jobs? How many people have lost their jobs, has that suddenly been erased?

Bankruptcy way up.
Personal debt still way up.

So in the past month employment numbers jump up a bit, so people are getting another part-time job. I don't think that is any great news for the economy.

I am waiting to see what happens in January, February, March time frame, after the hype dies down.

I think the economy is going to show its true colors again in 1st quarter 2004, which are not pretty.

I would love to see it turn around, but I think all this is Christmas hype and goverment contracts for the war.

[Blue_Tires]

34. i know

i'm not in that spending group...god bless 'em if they have a money tree in the backyard...