WP: Voter Anger Might Mean An Electoral Shift in '06

[Pirate Smile]

Voter Anger Might Mean An Electoral Shift in '06
Public Voices Dissatisfaction Over Iraq War, Economy

By Dan Balz, Shailagh Murray and Peter Slevin
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, November 6, 2005; Page A01

One year before the 2006 midterm elections, Republicans are facing the most adverse political conditions of the 11 years since they vaulted to power in Congress in 1994. Powerful currents of voter unrest -- including unhappiness over the war in Iraq and dissatisfaction with the leadership of President Bush -- have undermined confidence in government and are stirring fears among GOP candidates of a backlash.

Interviews with voters, politicians and strategists in four battleground states, supplemented by a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, found significant discontent with the performance of both political parties. Frustration has not reached the level that existed before the 1994 earthquake, but many strategists say that if the public mood further darkens, Republican majorities in the House and Senate could be at risk.

-snip-
Republicans strategists and candidates are bracing for losses next year, while hoping that Bush's fortunes and the overall environment improve. They take some comfort in the expectation that the worst of times has come a year ahead of the elections, and relief in the fact that, by historical measures, the number of genuinely competitive contests is likely to be small.

But Republicans have expanded their majorities in Congress in each of the last two elections, and strategists expect, at a minimum, that Democrats will narrow those margins next year. A Democratic takeover of either the House or Senate is not out of the question.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/05/AR2005110501514.html

It is a long 4 page article but definitely a good read.:)

[bluestateguy]

1. If only the election were not a year from now

Always seems to work this way: in odd numbered, non-election year, Democrats are thriving, in the even numbered, election year Republicans slither back in.

We have to wait a year to vote, and there are a lot of people out there who will eat up whatever this White House put out like doggie biscuits.

"But, but, this time it's different..."

Please, tell it to someone else.

[Pirate Smile]

5. More from the article: "More Trust for Democrats"

"More Trust for Democrats

Two-thirds of those surveyed by the Post and ABC News said the country is heading in the wrong direction. Asked whom they were likely to support in next year's House elections, 52 percent of registered voters said the Democratic candidate, while 37 percent said the Republican. While this testing of generic preferences is not always a reliable indicator of elections, the result suggests that Republicans for now are in trouble.

Republicans may find solace in the fact that 60 percent of those surveyed approved of the job their own House member is doing -- but that, too, was the case one year before the 1994 election. Then the percentage declined throughout 1994; if the same happens next year, Republicans will be in serious trouble.

In another indication of unrest, a majority now say they have little or no confidence in the government in Washington to solve problems, another statistic that is similar to findings at this point 12 years ago. Confidence deteriorated steadily throughout 1994.

When asked which party they trusted to handle the main problems facing the nation, registered voters preferred Democrats by 49 percent to 38 percent. On the eve of the 2002 midterms, when the GOP defied historical trends by gaining House and Senate seats, Republicans led on that question among those most likely to vote by 51 percent to 39 percent."

[SammyBlue]

38. Aww. . .my heart doth cry.

But my lips are laughing like there's no tomorrow. Good ridance, fascists!!!!

[Vogon_Glory]

12. The Republicans Have Another Year To Screw Up

I think there's a fighting chance for more Democrats to get elected and for progressives to throw a monkey-wrench or two in the Radical Right's agenda. More Republican 'good news' like the Iraq intelligence revelations, more casualties, more misery, rising oil prices, and the possibilities of another terrorist attack or two on US soil as well as the 2006 hurricane season and I suspect that the GOP won't be sitting nearly so pretty in October and very early November, 2006 as they were this last January.

Perhaps I'm being a cockeyed optimist, but there are times I'm wondering whether the right-wing crew in Washington has found itself sitting at a Belshazzar's Feast, and that whatever-it-is that's starting to write on the wall ISN'T special effects from FAUX entertainment to give them good cheer after all.

[Moloch]

34. Republicans are only as good as their president's approval.....

If you look at the polls, he's only shot up three times during his term (9/11, Iraq War, Saddam captured)

The only thing I can think of that would help shrub now is the capture of bin laden.

[deadparrot]

2. I have doubts that we'll take over one or both houses,

but we're definitely in a position to gain. I think that's a given.

Democrats just need to keep showing backbone, hammering away on the faulty Iraq intelligence, and advocating a coherent party platform.

[gratuitous]

3. Democrats are hammering away

We'll see if the media decide to report it or not. The Democrats have made several concrete proposals to get the country back on track, but the talking chuckleheads simply say "disorganized" or "not focused" as if they've done any real research on the subject instead of just ripping and reading what they get from the RNC blast fax.

[northzax]

28. and find someone halfway decent

to run in every single district. Make the GOP defend every inch of it's turf and spend money on races they should have won by a country mile. Remember Hackett. Run someone in every single district. If you've ever thought about it, GO now. More and more of the country is purple, but the Democratic party needs to take advantage of it. Maybe we pick up one or two of the formerly safe seats in the House, every one counts.

[natrat]

4. subtle facism-let them keep a little hope

but never let them have anything

[Neil Lisst]

6. I absolutely believe 2006 is a major shift. That's why I'm here.

DU always seemed like it was too hectic for me to post here, even though I read the site without commenting in the past. On several of the boards, the threads move so fast it's difficult to maintain continuity unless one wishes to live here.

But in August I realized 2006 was going to be our chance. The month of Cindy Sheehan (god bless her) started it, and the Katrina mess cemented it.

I created Neil Lisst comic 2 months ago as a vehicle to influence the electorate. My efforts here and there are designed to help shape the dialogue, both within the party and among the populace.

Within the party, I want to see us attract more while maintaining everyone we already have. I want to see students registered more and voting more, blacks registered more and voting more, and progressive tolerating Dems to the right of them who don't adhere to all their beliefs.

Organizing Dems is like moving frogs in a wheel barrow. Always has been, because someone is always threatening to jump.

[wackadoo wabbit]

7. Alas, this means nothing

As long as the Repukes control the voting machines, it doesn't matter what people think or how they vote; the Repukes will always be in power.

If we want to take back either house (or, dare I hope it, both houses), we need to work for transparent voting with paper trails.

[Neil Lisst]

8. That's a given.

But it's a lot harder for them to steal individual congressional races than statewide races and the presidential races.

Addressing the problems with voting is essential, but it's only one of many things we have to do to win in 06.

[anitar1]

9. I think the Abramoff investigation is going to overturn

Quite a few Repugs. there are many Pug congress people who have drank his koolaid. It is a matter of record. Let's hope everything is fully disclosed.

[OzarkDem]

14. In conservative districts

They'll just replace them with other R's, unless Dems take the initiative.

[tinrobot]

37. Control of the voting machines matter to a point...

If the race is close, the election can be rigged through control of the voting machines. That's how Bush won in '04 - he got close enough to steal it.

If the candidate is polling way ahead, however, it will be much harder to steal. Polling is still somewhat independant.

We still need to dump these machines in the harbor and go back to pen, paper, and hand counts. Thousands of people counting voting means thousands of witnesses. One person running a tabulator requires way too much trust in one individual.

[JWS]

10. I think even with election fraud shit we'll win the senate

I still think we'll gain in the House, but not as much as we can or should

[IndyOp]

32. Election fraud is not just stealing close races, it can steal any race -

by any margin. Need to swing 10%? 20%? 30%

It is just as easy to write software to make sure the favored candidate wins by 58% or 65% or 71% -- as it is to write it so the candidate wins by 51%.

It is easier to change the number 10,000 to 100,000 in a Microsoft Access file than it is to change 10,000 to 11,752 --

'Close' doesn't matter anymore. Resounding victories can be flipped.

Please read about the many, many problems in the computer systems in the GAO Report. Among other things, the GAO confirms that:

1. Some electronic voting machines "did not encrypt cast ballots or system audit logs, and it was possible to alter both without being detected." In other words, the GAO now confirms that electronic voting machines provided an open door to flip an entire vote count. More than 800,000 votes were cast in Ohio on electronic voting machines, some seven times Bush's official margin of victory.

2. "It was possible to alter the files that define how a ballot looks and works so that the votes for one candidate could be recorded for a different candidate." Numerous sworn statements and affidavits assert that this did happen in Ohio 2004.

3. "Vendors installed uncertified versions of voting system software at the local level." 3. Falsifying election results without leaving any evidence of such an action by using altered memory cards can easily be done, according to the GAO.

4. The GAO also confirms that access to the voting network was easily compromised because not all digital recording electronic voting systems (DREs) had supervisory functions password-protected, so access to one machine provided access to the whole network. This critical finding confirms that rigging the 2004 vote did not require a "widespread conspiracy" but rather the cooperation of a very small number of operatives with the power to tap into the networked machines and thus change large numbers of votes at will. With 800,000 votes cast on electronic machines in Ohio, flipping the number needed to give Bush 118,775 could be easily done by just one programmer.

5. Access to the voting network was also compromised by repeated use of the same user IDs combined with easily guessed passwords. So even relatively amateur hackers could have gained access to and altered the Ohio vote tallies.

6. The locks protecting access to the system were easily picked and keys were simple to copy, meaning, again, getting into the system was an easy matter.

7. One DRE model was shown to have been networked in such a rudimentary fashion that a power failure on one machine would cause the entire network to fail, re-emphasizing the fragility of the system on which the Presidency of the United States was decided.

8. GAO identified further problems with the security protocols and background screening practices for vendor personnel, confirming still more easy access to the system.

A good article is here

The GAO Report (as a pdf) is here:
<http://www.secstate.wa.gov/documentvault/1101.pdf>

[JWS]

36. I guess my main idea is that if most exit polls say a guy's supposed to

win by 10 or 20 percent margin, things would be too obvious -more obvious than last time. I actually think the American people wil lneed something like that to assure they get the picture. we're all too dumb to realize we're being had jsut like that... OF course a number of states have Democrats in charge of the vote counting. Most of those states are states whose senator's will be chosen in 06. This will affect to a greater degree who will win what, by what margin and how...

[depakid]

11. ....expectation that the worst of times has come a year ahead

That's wishful thinking... and considering the precarious state of the economy, the ongoing indictments and the quagmire in Iraq, pretty unrealistic.

Other than that, I'll pass on Dan Balz interpretations of what their uncited "strategists" say. Might as well read tea leaves rather than listen to any of the slanted prognostications or biased polling that the Post would publish.

[OzarkDem]

13. Our Dem leaders have to fight for it

So far they only have two speeds - idle and 70 mph, usually the former.

[Toots]

15. "the number of genuinely competitive contests is likely to be small."

This is a major problem and I think we should truly examine the Prop 77 that Ahnold introduced. The idea that an impartial non-partisan committee redraw the district lines and not politicians has much merit. The only reason I would oppose Prop 77 is because it was introduced by a Republican and they can not be trusted period. It is something we need to seriously think about and maybe promote everywhere we can. A committee made up of retired judges that had never been appointed by a politician and voted on by the people sounds pretty damn good to me.

[99Pancakes]

26. We Dems in CA plan to defeat 77

Because a defeat for Ahhnuld's props is a defeat for him. We will not let any of his props win!!

[Maggie_May]

16. Well lets think

Invading a another country on false intelligence
Spending billions on the Iraq war that was going to pay for itself.
Not helping the during a Katrina
Giving tax breaks to Oil companies when they are having record profits.
Then trying to cut benefits Medicaid food stamps school lunch programs.
Cutting student loan programs
Pork barrel spending on bridges bike paths.
Then giving tax breaks to the wealthy.
And they say we have no agenda
They should be so proud of theirs.

[geckosfeet]

17. Anger at being lied to, used, stolen from and finally murdered.

Conservative dreamers still hold out hope that their leaders are not really liars, swindlers and killers. Are they congenital masochists?

We need to steer the new path national path. Its the soul of the country, the people, your neighbors, all of us. And its worth fighting for.

Yes we need leaders, but until we get them we are the leaders. Don't let the conservative lying machine deceive your family, friends, and neighbors without being challenged.

[wookie294]

18. "Frustration has not reached the level that existed before the 1994"

This article suggests that voters were MORE frustrated in 1994 than today. WTF??? I would think people are more frustrated TODAY.

[depakid]

19. but you're not Pravda

on the Potomac. They'll be the ones to tell you what you should think!

[Burried News]

30. Agree - that line is Bullshit. I think you have to back to 1968 to

find a time when people were more angry and frustrated.

[Piscis Austrinus]

20. Some of the trial balloons the Republicans are floating...

...will fly like stone kites.

There are two very significant ideas being bounced about by the GOP, both of which would, if enacted, absolutely seal the 2006 election for the Democrats.

The first of these is the proposed tax on work-related health benefits. The second is the proposed end of the mortgage exemption.

Anyone who is currently enjoying health benefits from their employment would have those benefits taxed. In my case, that would mean that my taxable income would rise by about $2,500.

The mortgage exemption's repeal would be much more devastating. The average home in this country costs $200,000. The average house payment should therefore come to about $1300. Averaging out the length of a mortgage vs. the amount of principal paid, this would result in about an $8,000 increase per annum in taxable income.

The result is that the average American doesn't get a $10,000 raise, but s/he will be taxed as though that were the case.

Together, these two issues are a potential bomb targeting the middle class in this country. Disposable income - already being eaten by increased fuel and heating costs, rising consumer costs, and the still-to-be-seen effects of the bankruptcy bill that recently came into effect - will decline in a very visible manner in 2006, if indeed these measures pass.

The loss of disposable income will in turn cause a two-fold effect: first, consumer spending will decrease, if only because people won't have the money to spend in the first place (it will be deducted from their paychecks before they see it). More to the point, there will be people who will have to let their bills slide to some extent simply because they have to provide for essentials (food and a roof) before anything else.

With less revenue coming into businesses from consumer spending - which fuels all commerce in this nation - we will see a significant decline in the financial markets. The vast majority of people won't be able to invest - or invest as much - as in the past. This creates a bear market, because there are fewer buyers for the same stocks. Businesses won't be able to buy back their stocks, or diversify, or expand as effectively because of decreased revenues. Prices will have to increase. And that just fuels the cycle.

Folks, I expect 2006 to be a difficult year anyway, but these two measures could turn difficulty into nightmarish economic conditions. My guess is that about 90% of Americans would be adversely affected by them. Only the top 5% - who can afford the hits without noticing - and the bottom 5% - who are far enough gone that these measures can't make matters worse - would be more or less unscathed directly. And even these would take hits. Less income means less charity. Lowering stock values reduces real wealth.

I haven't even touched on some of the other possibilities - for example, that these conditions would have the same effect on the real estate market that a lighted cigarette has on an overinflated balloon, for example. Imagine buying a $200,000 home and seeing its value drop to $150,000. You'd see signs of panic when suddenly people's main investments turn into liabilities in the amount of tens of thousands of dollars, even without any of the accompanying economic issues. Look at the dot-com bust. I know a number of people who lost a great deal of money in that fiasco. One acquaintance lost $30,000 - most of his investments - in a matter of hours when one of his preferred stocks tanked. I'm not saying the collapse would be sudden, but I cannot conclude anything other than that it is coming.

If these things happen - and I don't think all these things will, but some of them seem pretty likely and all of them are not exactly farfetched - then we'll see something like 1994, only much more angry. Voting machines won't be enough to overcome the abandonment of the GOP by at least half of its middle-class faithful.

So, yes, I do think it is very possible that the House and Senate could return to Democratic hands by 2006. The question, to me, is whether the Democrats want that politically. It's the equivalent of buying a house with a furnace that leaks gas in the dead of winter and not having any repairmen available who can fix the thing. You'll have your house.... but do you burn, or do you freeze? I honestly think that the economic problems - never mind the social issues - that the Congress of 2007 will inherit will prove to be intractable over the short haul, and the electorate may not have enough patience to allow long-term solutions to work - expecially with the likes of Limbaugh, Hannity, Coulter, Savage and their ilk jeering lies from the sidelines.

The 1930's were the result of the bad economic decisions of the 1920's. FDR's solutions, while broad in scope, innovative in concept, and well-intentioned in design, took years to make a difference, and might not have had not the Second World War intervened. Sadly, my great fear is that the land in which we now live is no longer the pre-Depression America, but more reminiscent in mindset and direction of Weimar Germany. And we all know what happened there.

Work and hope...

PsA

[cascadiance]

21. In some ways, I worry more about DINOS than I do about Rethugs...

... in this environment.

It will be not too long where more of the Rethugs will join the bandwagon off of the Bush/corporate agenda in fear of losing their seats to "new" Democrats that will likely be more put forth by Howard Dean and less put forth by DLC folks, and representing bigger threats to their reelection chances than DINO incumbents that don't feel as threatened by primaries, and less challenged by the increasingly hobbled Republican party in the general election.

Though the first priority is to win back majorities in both houses. The VERY next priority is to make sure that these DINOs are also more effectively challenged in primaries than they have in the past. The special election for St. Paul mayor this week who was a Dem that supported Bush should be a good start to what I'd hope to see a trend of us taking back our party from corporate control!

[confludemocrat]

22. Ron Wyden has a flat tax proposal isn't that sure to end mortgage&health d

eductions, too? WTF is up with that? Anyway, if they cave on Scalito, who gives a flying fuck if they win or not in 2006, especially and additionally given your points about the wreck of a country they will assume responsibility for?

[99Pancakes]

27. Good points

Welcome to the DU

:hi:

[IndyOp]

23. Depends entirely on who is in control of the voting machines...

It doesn't matter what the voters think if the rethugs can change the vote tallies into anything they want them to be.

:kick:

[leQ]

25. until voting machines are open source, there's never going to be

another democrat victory. plain and simple.

[northzax]

29. ok then, why bother?

I guess we can all go home now.

and it's the Democratic party, not the Democrat party. words matter.

[suston96]

24. No such luck....

There will be no electoral anything but more Republican victories unless the voting machines and tabulating machines are kept out of the hands of RNC recalibrators.

But I guess we will wait until a few weeks before the election before we get worked up about it. Or maybe after the election......

As usual

[IndyOp]

31. ROFL !

:rofl:

I don't know why, just becoming jaded I guess.

:rofl:

[goforit]

33. If there isn't.....America is up a creek!!

[JJackFlash]

35. Gerrymandering versus a Democratic tide

will the storm surge be enough to overtop the levees of gerrymandered districts?
We'll see.

[cantstandbush]

39. I would rather the shift would come from "voter intelligence" than "anger.

But I will take a shift any way we can get it.

[cleofus1]

40. it really galls me

that things have to get so fucking bad before the public rejects the conservative agenda...

[mod mom]

41. "might" because WaPo knows the machines are rigged + are complicit

by their silence! Where are the GAO headlines WaPo?