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Which is cool, because that's what we all do, more or less.
Well, I still have some caffeine in my bloodstream, so I'll have a shot at your questions.
"First, inquire: what do you really know about Iraq, and who has taught you it?"
Some of the best first-hand information I've gotten recently has been from the commanding general of the Michigan National Guard. He's also an old drinking buddy. I trust boots-on-the-ground sources first (he has Iraqi mud on his). Through him, I discovered other sources I felt I could trust. My contacts include a military professor of urban warfare strategy at the Army War College, two former spies for the CIA (husband and wife), and the director of the Watson Institute's Global Security Program, to name a few from a list of dozens.
My background as a writer of documentaries for national television has given me long practice in vetting sources. Many of my military contacts came from a film I wrote and produced in 1997 called FutureWar. I am happy to say that events of recent years confirmed almost all the projections I made in that film. Principal among those was that war of the future would increasingly be fought between rogue organizations and hidebound national militaries. These wars would begin conventionally on the ground, but after a period of asymmetrical frustration, be won in the media, the battlespace of the future. I called it SoftWar. (I think most of my fellow DUers would be very comfortable politically with my views on war.)
I also, like many others, read widely. I prefer apolitical analysis from professionals who have devoted years or decades to their work, and I avoid websites and other news sources with a political point of view when gathering facts. Experience has shown that those who already have a point of view cannot avoid selecting and shading the facts to suit their politics. Naturally, I have my own biases, but that's the point: I prefer to roll my own biases, rather than smoke someone else's.
It requires an elastic mind and a set of critical judgment skills to sort the factual wheat from the subjective chaff, especially when dealing with second- and third-tier sources. Generally, on this board, I've been praised effusively for my critical thinking when I agree with someone else, and chastised (sometimes viciously) for lacking critical thinking skills when I disagree with someone else. That kind of says it all, I think. :-)
"Secondly, ask: how well have they steered you thus far?"
That's easy. They haven't steered me. I've steered me, as much as anyone is able to do that in this world. If I reach different conclusions from someone else, that isn't ipso facto evidence that I've been led down the bridle path. Reasonable people can and do reach different conclusions. One thing I've observed is that there are voices from all sides warning me against listening to false sources (where false is defined as any viewpoint that doesn't agree with that of the warner). Naturally, whoever warns me also has a direct line on the truth, and expects me to plug right into it.
Regardless of what conclusions I've reached, I can assure you with all seriousness that I have not dabbled in Orientalist fantasies, and have not cobbled together a pastiche from establishment US news sources. I have likewise resisted the equally dangerous urge to dabble in Occidentalist fantasies, and have not cobbled together a narrative from anti-establishment foreign news sources. No dabbling and no cobbling for this kid. :-)
As for the numbers behind my original post, the most credible information I have is that approximately 3,000 of the 30,000-strong insurgency are foreign born. The leadership of the insurgency is disproportionately foreign, although still distinctly minority. A lot of foreign money keeps the insurgents in bullets and butter. Iraq is increasingly being used as a training ground for Islamic radicals who rotate through Iraq, then take their newly-learned skills back home to be applied locally. Meanwhile, the majority of the front-line fighters are Iraqi Sunnis from conservative families from with the Triangle. They fight not so much from a sense of national unity against occupiers, as much as from a sense of Sunni unity. Many of them have proven susceptible to the religious exhortations of their leaders, as well. They bitterly resent the power lost in the overthrow of Saddam and feel that the only chance of its restoration is to defeat the US occupation through asymmetrical warfare, adroit control of world opinion, and in particular, weakening of US political will. Time will tell. My own view, previously stated, is that this whole mess was both foreseeable and preventable, a catastrophic mistake on the part of the White House and its civilian political advisors. I think the US public is trending inexorably toward this view, and that will bring a pleasant surprise for Dems on election day next year.
These are my opinions, nothing more, nothing less, nothing personal.
Peace.
"The essence of the Liberal outlook lies not in what opinions are held, but in how they are held: instead of being held dogmatically, they are held tentatively, and with a consciousness that new evidence may at any moment lead to their abandonment." Bertrand Russell
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