STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 19 April

[ozymandius]

Tuesday April 19, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 276 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 127 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 183 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1241
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 18, 2005

Dow... 10,071.25 -16.26 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq... 1,912.92 +4.77 ( +0.25%)
S&P 500... 1,145.98 +3.36 (+0.29%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.25% -0.02 (-0.52%)
Gold future... 429.00 +2.50 (+0.58%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Rob Kirby

CURIOSITY CONCERNING CONUNDRUMS?

With last Monday’s market wrap dealing with derivatives, namely interest rate derivatives, I decided that perhaps it would be appropriate to discuss the current interest rate environment a little more ‘big picture’.

To do so, I thought it would be best to direct everyone’s attention to a wonderful piece which I was first made aware of through Jim Sinclair’s web site. It is titled, Interest Rate Increases Stress the Banking System, and it’s written by Warren Pollock for a publication called The Macroeconomic Newsletter. In a nutshell, Pollock reasons that that the FED is in a pickle and cannot raise interest rates through the ‘meat of the curve’ <5 – 10 yr.> without ‘blowing up’ the entire system. He goes on to surmise that – ultimately - the market will raise rates if the FED fails to do so. If you buy into this thesis there are only two viable courses of action in the near future namely a] the FED raises rates or b] the market raises rates. What got me scratching my head was that both potentially end with systemic financial melt down or as I see it – the loss of U.S. dollar as a viable reserve currency. Consider for a moment the implications of this loss.

Currency Consternation

If I’m George Bush in the White House, I likely know that the current economic situation is dire and I probably didn’t need Paul Volcker to write an Op-Ed piece entitled, On Thin Ice, in the Washington Post to make that point abundantly clear. That’s why Alan Greenspan’s visits to the White House have become so frequent - it’s all high level crisis management.

-cut-

Without a viable currency the government would have its profligacy and deficit spending instantaneously ‘cut off at the knees’. Wars would be next to impossible to finance carte blanche – since foreign capital has arguably been funding them.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[teryang]

2. Chimp doesn't know or care

His family and friends are cementing their social position by enriching themselves beyond their wildest dreams. A middle echelon of doctors, business owners and financial professionals are ready to follow him off a cliff.

[Tace]

3. Nice Toon Today Ozzy

I like the folks in the cars. : )

[54anickel]

4. Tilt! (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050418-mon.html#anchor0

An unbalanced global economy is at risk of becoming unhinged. Beset by record imbalances between current account deficits and surpluses, it doesn’t take much to derail a system that is already in serious disequilibrium. Such a possibility now seems less remote in the face of a confluence of powerful blows -- an energy shock, threats to European unity, an outbreak of overt hostility between China and Japan, and the rising tide of US-led protectionist sentiment. Meanwhile, steeped in denial, global policymakers are asleep at the switch. With an unbalanced world lacking the inherent resilience needed to overcome these mounting tensions, the global expansion is now at risk. That conclusion does not seem to be lost on stretched and still overvalued financial markets.

It’s always easy to get swept away by the emotions of the markets, and last week’s sell-off in global equity markets offers many temptations in that regard. The markets are understandably unnerved over the possibility of another growth disappointment. And, on the surface, the March data flow certainly supports these concerns. The softness was global in scope -- not just for the usual suspects like Europe and Japan but also for the two stalwarts in the global growth chain, the United States and China. The US labor market data were lousy (again) and the latest retail sales reports were especially disconcerting. Even in China, import demand has tailed off in the first three months of this year -- expanding at just a 12.2% y-o-y rate in 1Q05, literally one-third the 36% growth pace of 2004. Sure, this could be noise as well, but a softening of import demand is also a classic warning sign of a slowdown in Chinese domestic demand.

Of course, weak incoming data could be just an excuse for the markets’ latest spasm. There’s always a lot of noise in the numbers -- especially with this year’s early Easter. Meanwhile, the so-called energy shock seems to be vanishing before our eyes, with oil prices now threatening to pierce the $50 threshold on the downside just two weeks after it looked as if there would be no stopping the markets on the upside at $60. Sure, there is still a very compelling case as to why energy product prices will continue to rise -- especially gasoline, as many parts of the world now head into the peak seasonal driving season. But the oil price bet has become something of a crapshoot -- there are good grounds to take either side of the market at this point in time. By definition, energy shocks are two-way events -- providing both agony and ecstasy as mean reversion eventually follows most price surges. A reversal of the recent energy price spike could turn the current global slowdown into nothing more than another temporary soft patch. If that’s the case, equities should rebound and bonds sell off. Any such market reversal could be short lived, however, if political risks continue to mount. What’s particularly disconcerting, of course, about the recent equity market sell-off is that it has been concentrated in a period when oil prices have been falling -- not rising. That’s a hint there could be a deeper meaning to all this.

That deeper meaning, in my view, is tied to very worrisome signs of a potential failure in the global policy architecture. Around the world, politicians and policy makers have become a source of increased instability. For an already unbalanced global economy, that’s a very dangerous combination. The interplay between mounting global imbalances and rising political risks raises the odds of a more disruptive strain of rebalancing -- complete with a dollar crisis and a wrenching sell-off in both tocks and bonds.

more...

[54anickel]

5. "Chopper" Ben's chat at the Homer Jones Lecture (uses Marale's favorite

number)

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/20050414/default.htm

On most dimensions the U.S. economy appears to be performing well. Output growth has returned to healthy levels, the labor market is firming, and inflation appears to be well controlled. However, one aspect of U.S. economic performance still evokes concern among economists and policymakers: the nation's large and growing current account deficit. In 2004, the U.S. external deficit stood at $666 billion, or about 5-3/4 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). Corresponding to that deficit, U.S. citizens, businesses, and governments on net had to raise $666 billion on international capital markets.1 The current account deficit has been on a steep upward trajectory in recent years, rising from a relatively modest $120 billion (1.5 percent of GDP) in 1996 to $414 billion (4.2 percent of GDP) in 2000 on its way to its current level. Most forecasters expect the nation's current account imbalance to decline slowly at best, implying a continued need for foreign credit and a concomitant decline in the U.S. net foreign asset position.

snip>

In my view, a key reason for the change in the current account positions of developing countries is the series of financial crises those countries experienced in the past decade or so. In the mid-1990s, most developing countries were net importers of capital; as table 1 shows, in 1996 emerging Asia and Latin America borrowed about $80 billion on net on world capital markets. These capital inflows were not always productively used. In some cases, for example, developing-country governments borrowed to avoid necessary fiscal consolidation; in other cases, opaque and poorly governed banking systems failed to allocate those funds to the projects promising the highest returns. Loss of lender confidence, together with other factors such as overvalued fixed exchange rates and debt that was both short-term and denominated in foreign currencies, ultimately culminated in painful financial crises, including those in Mexico in 1994, in a number of East Asian countries in 1997-98, in Russia in 1998, in Brazil in 1999, and in Argentina in 2002. The effects of these crises included rapid capital outflows, currency depreciation, sharp declines in domestic asset prices, weakened banking systems, and recession.

In response to these crises, emerging-market nations either chose or were forced into new strategies for managing international capital flows. In general, these strategies involved shifting from being net importers of financial capital to being net exporters, in some cases very large net exporters. For example, in response to instability of capital flows and the exchange rate, some East Asian countries, such as Korea and Thailand, began to build up large quantities of foreign-exchange reserves and continued to do so even after the constraints imposed by the halt to capital inflows from global financial markets were relaxed. Increases in foreign-exchange reserves necessarily involve a shift toward surplus in the country's current account, increases in gross capital inflows, reductions in gross private capital outflows, or some combination of these elements. As table 1 shows, current account surpluses have been an important source of reserve accumulation in East Asia.

snip>

In practice, these countries increased reserves through the expedient of issuing debt to their citizens, thereby mobilizing domestic saving, and then using the proceeds to buy U.S. Treasury securities and other assets. Effectively, governments have acted as financial intermediaries, channeling domestic saving away from local uses and into international capital markets. A related strategy has focused on reducing the burden of external debt by attempting to pay down those obligations, with the funds coming from a combination of reduced fiscal deficits and increased domestic debt issuance. Of necessity, this strategy also pushed emerging-market economies toward current account surpluses. Again, the shifts in current accounts in East Asia and Latin America are evident in the data for the regions and for individual countries shown in table 1.

snip>

From about 1996 to early 2000, equity prices played a key equilibrating role in international financial markets. The development and adoption of new technologies and rising productivity in the United States--together with the country's long-standing advantages such as low political risk, strong property rights, and a good regulatory environment--made the U.S. economy exceptionally attractive to international investors during that period. Consequently, capital flowed rapidly into the United States, helping to fuel large appreciations in stock prices and in the value of the dollar. Stock indexes rose in other industrial countries as well, although stock-market capitalization per capita is significantly lower in those countries than in the United States.

The current account positions of the industrial countries adjusted endogenously to these changes in financial market conditions. I will focus here on the case of the United States, which bore the bulk of the adjustment. From the trade perspective, higher stock-market wealth increased the willingness of U.S. consumers to spend on goods and services, including large quantities of imports, while the strong dollar made U.S. imports cheap (in terms of dollars) and exports expensive (in terms of foreign currencies), creating a rising trade imbalance. From the saving-investment perspective, the U.S. current account deficit rose as capital investment increased (spurred by perceived profit opportunities) at the same time that the rapid increase in household wealth and expectations of future income gains reduced U.S. residents' perceived need to save. Thus the rapid increase in the U.S. current account deficit between 1996 and 2000 was fueled to a significant extent both by increased global saving and the greater interest on the part of foreigners in investing in the United States.

See, it's all Clinton's fault! :evilgrin:




Some interesting comments on Ben's yammering over at the Mises blog spot.
http://blog.mises.org/blog/archives/003341.asp

Ben "Helipcopter" Bernanke, the same Fed Governor who has threatened to drop bales of freshly printed money from a helicopter in a last-ditch effort to fight deflation, speaking to the Virginia Association of Economics, recently state:

I will take issue with the common view that the recent deterioration in the U.S. current account primarily reflects economic policies and other economic developments within the United States itself.
<...>
I will argue that over the past decade a combination of diverse forces has created a significant increase in the global supply of saving--a global saving glut--which helps to explain both the increase in the U.S. current account deficit and the relatively low level of long-term real interest rates in the world today.

The major problem with Bernanke's speech is that he confuses atucal savings -- the sacrifice of present consumption for future consumption -- with money printing. Bernanke states:

By the same token, if a country's saving is less than the amount required to finance domestic investment, the country can close the gap by borrowing from abroad. In the United States, national saving is currently quite low and falls considerably short of U.S. capital investment. Of necessity, this shortfall is made up by net foreign borrowing--essentially, by making use of foreigners' saving to finance part of domestic investment.

The foreign dollar-buying cartel cannot borrow enough savings in their domestic economies to purchase all of the dollar-denominated debt that they wish to absorb. This has been amply document by Richard Duncan, Nouriel Roubini, and others (see this paper from the Financial Markets center, who cite The Economist Magazine on their web site to the effect that central banks "may have created the biggest liquidity bubble in history."). The difference has been made up by money printing. In China in particular, this is driving a massive credit boom, which must eventually turn into a bust. To give him credit, he does make this point a bit later:

more...

[MARALE]

53. Got to get out the holy water again!

I wish we still had Bill as Pres. :sigh:

[54anickel]

6. Beijing ignores currency demands from G7

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/d653a6aa-b062-11d9-ab98-00000e2511c8.html

snip>

Beijing's deadpan reaction to resurgent pressure for exchange rate adjustment reflects its unwillingness to tailor its policy to the demands of trading partners such as the US, which has complained that the renminbi is seriously undervalued against the US dollar.

snip>

Merely allowing somewhat greater movement in the renminbi, which is currently narrowly pegged at Rmb8.28 to the dollar, could help to mollify US critics but might actually encourage inflows of speculative “hot money” by undermining confidence in the peg.

A significant revaluation or allowing the currency to float freely would raise other risks, such as undermining the rural economy by exposing farmers to cheaper food imports while hurting exporters, perhaps the most efficient sector of the Chinese economy.

Also, while China's surplus with the US has been ballooning, its overall trade remains much more balanced.

Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People's Bank of China, said last month that China would not revalue its currency in order to rectify bilateral trade imbalances. John Snow, the US Treasury secretary, said after the weekend G7 meeting that China had had long enough to prepare its financial system after more than two years of talks with group members on currency reform. However, the decision not to mention China by name in the communiqué is likely to be seen as a sign of lack of will to back up the demand for action with of punitive action.

more...

[54anickel]

54. Will China allow its currency to appreciate? (Interesting point)

http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/apr182005.html

snip>

Support is growing in the US Senate for taking tariff action against China. The US trade deficit with China totaled $29.12 billion for only January and February of this year. That is a fifty percent increase from last year. The US trade deficit with China is now the largest of any country and almost double the size of the trade deficit with Japan, which is second.

The appointment of a new US trade representative is being blocked until Senate leaders vote on anti-subsidy laws against non-market economies such as China. In addition, a wide coalition of senators is backing legislation to impose a 27.5% tariff on all Chinese products entering the US if Beijing does not agree to raise the value of its currency.

If China does not allow its currency to appreciate against the dollar, and if the US goes ahead and implements the tariffs, all Chinese goods will become 27.5% more expensive for US consumers. On the other hand, if China allows its currency to appreciate, let’s say by the same amount, 27.5%, then its goods would be no more expensive to US consumers than if tariffs were imposed. However, the cost of all China’s imports would fall by 21.6% if it allowed its currency to appreciate by 27.5%. So what do you think China is more likely to do? Give the US government a revenue stream equal to 27.5% of the value of all Chinese imports to the US, or reduce the cost of its own imports by 21.6%?

The Chinese have always struck me as intelligent and practical. I suspect that China is going to let its currency appreciate. This not only means that the US dollar is going to fall, it also implies that US interest rates are going to rise because if the Chinese (and Japanese) no longer have to keep their trade dollars off the market to prevent the US dollar from falling they will also not need to buy as many US Treasuries as they have in the past.

[UpInArms]

96. Snow keeps pressure on China

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B5CCBA0CA%2DDC55%2D4CEB%2DBE92%2D3569D127F779%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - China needs to adopt a more flexible exchange rate immediately, Treasury Secretary John Snow told lawmakers on Capitol Hill on Tuesday.

Repeating the Bush administration's new harder stance on China's currency, Snow said the Chinese have made great progress and are now ready to take the next step: Loosen the strict connection between the yuan and the U.S. dollar.

"As members of the G7 have recognized, the time has now come for China to introduce flexibility into its exchange rate," Snow said in his prepared remarks before the House Financial Services Committee.

"The Chinese are now ready to adopt a more flexible exchange rate, they have sufficiently prepared their financial system to live in a world of greater flexibility and need to take action now," Snow said.

Snow's remarks come as lawmakers of both parties have put more pressure on the administration and on the Chinese to resolve the currency dispute. Legislation has been proposed that would impose punishing tariffs on Chinese imports if China does not move to let its currency float at a market-set rate.

U.S. manufacturing and labor interests say the Chinese have kept their currency artificially weak by pegging it to the dollar. A weak currency helps make Chinese exports more competitive on global markets, undercutting U.S. goods at home and abroad.

...more...

[54anickel]

106. Good grief, I wish that idiot would be more careful about what he wishes

for. Do you think Snow has put any thought into the repercussions beyond "a cheap buck will erode the deficit"?

Nevermind, I guess that's sort of an oxymoron - Snow and Thought in the same sentence. Foolish me.

[54anickel]

7. Facing Global Sanctions, Iran Uses Oil Fields to Seek Alliances

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/19/business/worldbusiness/19tehran.html?

snip past the worry-mongering>

As American oil companies are barred from investing in Iran because of unilateral sanctions, Iran's policy is opening the door to their state-owned rivals in Asia to build up oil and gas reserves as a counterweight.

There is no guarantee, though, that Iran's clients will necessarily turn into political allies. Moreover, Iran's ability to buy friendships is undermined by its own limitations. While the country pumps close to four million barrels of oil a day, it spends $2 billion each year to import fuel because of a lack of refining capacity. Then it spends another $3 billion to subsidize gasoline that is sold here at one of the lowest prices in the world - 8 cents a liter, or about 30 cents a gallon.

snip>

"Whenever Iran has wanted to get closer to a country it has used its oil diplomacy," said Siamak Namazi, a managing director at Atieh Bahar, the Tehran consultancy. "But the history of American-Iranian relations has been that when one opens the window, the other nails it shut."

Iran is counting on outside help to bolster its stagnating production. After nearly two decades of isolation, the clerical rulers of Iran have realized they cannot afford the massive expansion and modernization the industry needs without capital and expertise from abroad.

snip>

After the clerics toppled the shah, they cut their oil output by two-thirds to demonstrate their resolve to sever ties with the West; the Iranian industry then became a prime economic target in the eight-year war against Iraq. But when Iran signaled it was once again ready to open up access to foreigners, the United States imposed sanctions against its oil sector.

more...

[54anickel]

32. PETRO-DOLLAR & PROTECTION RACKET

Not sure if this was posted earlier or not. Willie's stuff tends to show up in the Wrap-up, so sorry if this is a dupe. Just think it's worth a review with what's been going on with the buck, IMF, Russia, the ME, etc.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/willie040505.html

The term "Petro-Dollar" has been bandied about for years. In my travels, much has been mentioned in indirect terms about it, with assumptions of its nature and structural significance. It is mentioned often carelessly when talking about crude oil and its Persian Gulf sales. Yet little is written on the topic, and little is easily found to read and learn. A recent radio show with Al Korelin delved into this subject, although we only scratched its surface to identify some warning signals on economic impact. Changes are occurring under our feet to a critical foundation of both world commerce and world banking.

The Petro-Dollar system is a vast banking and commerce system designed by major world economies. Japan, South Korea, France, Germany, Argentina, these nations are typical in purchase of oil without the benefit of domestic production. So they must create a system for having cash ready to make timely payments, much like a checking account. The system's overt original purpose was to enable and facilitate payment for extremely large supplies of delivered energy products, principally crude oil but also natural gas. The commodity payment system has actually evolved to become much more far reaching. Try to purchase copper or cotton or forest timber or grains, and payment is almost assuredly demanded in USDollar terms, the international currency for commerce in commodities generally. What we have is a system for purchasing minerals and resources, totally bound in US$ denomination pricing and transaction settlements. The most visible element is energy trade, whose supplies clearly make for the largest bill payments. Definitely the most important payments for economic survival are for energy, the lifeblood of industry and transportation. Nations keep funds liquid, and use 3-month TBills almost like cash. It bears an interest yield. Money does not sit in banks without bearing a yield in return, a practical measure. Considerable lead time is involved for orders and payment, for both inventory management and delivery. The typical time lapse is 45 days from Persian Gulf port shipment to exit from domestic refineries, according to an energy expert colleague.

snip>

RUSSIA & OPEC UNDERMINE THE PETRO-DOLLAR
The Petro-Dollar system is under new attack. Russia and fringe nations of OPEC are responsible for dissension. Their motive is self-preservation. They strive to avoid selling crude oil output in a falling currency, which cuts into revenues. They dislike buying commodities in US$ terms, as inherent prices are rising. Rather, they desire a stable or rising currency. The rogue nations involved in the act of insurrection include Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and Indonesia. Being a European nation, Norway should also be so motivated, but so far they have not made any rumbling noises. An added motive for selling oil outside the US$ sphere addresses a larger economic issue. If a nation can manage to trade a host of commodities (like oil, natural gas, copper, iron, cotton, coffee) in euro denomination, that national economy would be far less subject to the distress of systemic rising prices. For instance, the Russian ruble is down 30% versus the euro, in part from selling oil supplies in US$ terms, in part from the horrible fallout from the Yukos legal treachery, in part from unusual fallout from tampering in the Ukraine elections. Regardless of why, the faltering Russian currency has contributed to 11.7% price inflation inside this enormously important commodity powerhouse nation. Russia might lead the pack in output for as many as a dozen commodity items such as platinum, cobalt, titanium, tin, zinc, aluminum, and others. Russia sells 81% of its oil exports to Europe, with 65% of its overall trade with the EuroZone. Therefore, it is in Russia's best interest to sell oil in euro denomination. It appears Russia is the spearhead behind the transformation toward the Petro-Euro and creating a new system.

snip>

The sleepy US press & media has given weapons of mass destruction 50 hours of air time for every 5 minutes of serious discussion of petro sales in euros. Saddam Hussein's defiant sale of Iraqi oil for euros made for a highly profitable maneuver. In my analysis, Russia is attempting to take the front position to attack the Petro-Dollar system directly, first by selling oil and gas to Europe in euro terms, second by attempting to lead OPEC in secret fashion with little publicized meetings. OPEC refuses to confront the USA, since it owns no military and is quite dependent upon the USA for its protection. They sell us oil; we protect their leadership (see Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and Qatar). Russia is willing to confront the USA, an adversarial role which it seems unwilling or unable to be put to rest, a certain remnant from the Cold War. The fact that Iran nuclear armament is no longer in the news in the last few weeks speaks volumes about the tactical weakness of the USA. Our nation is extraordinarily vulnerable to sales of USTBonds by foreign central banks, and to sales of foreign produced oil in euros (not USDollars). In my view, Putin showed Bush his weapons last month, and the USA backed off.

snip>

FAILING TOOLS & THE VULNERABLE USA
Previously useful weapons used by the USA are likely ineffective here. The IMF and World Bank have been used in devious ways in past years. These organizations have been accused of serving as fronts for securing contracts for US contractor firms, for disrupting foreign governments, and more. Evidence abounds that the IMF blocked attempts for member OPEC nations to firm the usage of an Islamic Dinar to be used in oil sales. A gold-backed Dinar is not used much for international settlements, but still is talked about between Iran and Indonesia. The role of the World Bank might become more strategically important with Wolfowitz as its new head. If you think this is a maneuver of no importance or consequence, YOU ARE BRAIN DEAD.

more...

[MARALE]

65. This is a good read

I have read most of this informatio before, but he puts it together very well. The game we are playing with the oil and our soldiers is being called. I think China is a bigger player than we thought it would be as well.

[UpInArms]

8. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 84.05 Change +0.05 (+0.06%)

Dollar Loses Key Levels In Latest Countermove by Majors

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=772&Itemid=39

EUR/USD - Euro rallied against the dollar as the single currency bulls launched a surprising attack against the greenback positions and managed to recapture and hold the 1.3000 figure. As the dollar bulls pullback their defensive positions, advancing euro longs will encounter a minor resistance at 1.3059, an Apr 1 daily spike high, with intermediate resistance seen at 1.3125, a 50.0 Fib of the 1.3481-1.2769 dollar rally.

A major resistance at 1.3209, a 61.8 Fib of the Mar-Apr dollar bull swing continues to defend dollar held territory above the 1.3200 figure, as a break above 1.3200 might the pair retest the offers at 1.3360, an upper boundary of the large triangle that dominated price action since the beginning of the year. In case the dollar longs decide to launch a counter move, euro longs will rely on 1.2989, a minor support created by Apr11-12 consolidation high, to provide first round of defenses. An intermediate support can be seen at 1.2937, a 23.6 Fib of the 1.3481-1.2769 greenback bull swing, currently defends the major support at 1.2904, a 10-day SMA. Oscillators remain mixed; with Stochastic on daily chart neutral at 38.75 and is extremely overbought at 91.77 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI remains neutral on the daily chart at 51.73 and is approaching overbought line 4-hour chart at 65.23. MACD continues to tread below the zero line on the daily chart and crossed above the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart.

<snip>

USD/JPY - Yen continues to consolidate as the latest move against the dollar by the majors was largely ignored by the yen longs. As dollar longs pullback their defenses greenback bulls will rely on a minor support at 107.11, an Apr 13 daily low, to protect an intermediate support at 106.60, a Mar 31 daily spike low. In case the initial defenses become breached, a major support at 106.11, a 38.2 fib of the 101.65-108.87 dollar rally, will continue to defend the 105.00 figure against the advance by the yen bulls. As the dollar longs prepare to launch a counter move to regain some of their lost territory, they will encounter a minor resistance at 107.71, a 5-day SMA, followed by an intermediate resistance at 108.55, an Apr 15 daily spike high. A major resistance at 108.87, an Apr5-8 consolidation high, continues to defend the 109.69, a 61.8 Fib of the 112.92-101.76 yen rally,, which acts as a gate toward the 111.46, an Oct 6-7 range high. Indicators remain mixed with Stochastic slopping toward the oversold line on the daily chart at 64.33 and is oversold at 16.89 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI is slopping downward on the daily at 57.84and is neutral at 41.86 on the 4-hour chart. MACD is slopping down toward the zero line on the daily and continues to tread along the zero line on the dealer (4HR) charts.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

50. Currency market adjusting to sluggish domestic growth

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BBA4F2F48%2DC6F9%2D489A%2D90D9%2D3C8D897112ED%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The dollar was flat early Tuesday, after news that March housing construction starts registered their largest drop in 14 years, while producer prices - excluding food and energy - were tamer than expected.

In recent trades, the euro was quoted at $1.3006, against $1.30 before the data. The dollar was at 107.36 yen, down fractionally from 107.38 yen before hand.

Earlier, the Commerce Department said housing starts fell 17.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted 1.837 million annualized units. The decline was the largest since January, 1991 and followed a 21-year record high in February. Economists were looking for starts to ease back to 2.09 million.

The Labor Department, meanwhile, said core producer prices rose just 0.1%, below the 0.3% forecast by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The headline PPI figure, which includes energy costs, rose 0.7% in March, broadly in line with expectations

The dollar failed to react to the 17.6% drop in residential construction starts in part because currency markets tend not to focus on this aspect of the economy, according to Sean Callow, chief currency analyst at IDEAGlobal.

...more...

[UpInArms]

100. Snow-Job blows green snot

3:44pm 04/19/05 SNOW: NO WORRIES THAT CAPITAL FLOWS TO U.S. WILL DRY UP

[UpInArms]

101. Snow: No worries that capital flows will dry up

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38461.6596037616-834311052&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Treasury Secretary John Snow said Tuesday that he's confident capital flows into the United States will continue uninterrupted. Snow agreed with Rep. Michael Oxley, R-Ohio, that U.S. capital flows are not dependent on any one source. "There have been a lot of misplaced headlines," Snow said, referring to media reports suggesting that foreign central banks might shift their portfolios. "We are confident that the U.S. will remain an attractive place to invest."

[54anickel]

107. Why do I envision him saying that with a gun to the head of a banker-type?

[UpInArms]

9. Today's Reports:

Apr 19	8:30 AM	Building Permits	Mar	-	2075K	2094K	2107K	-	
Apr 19	8:30 AM	Core PPI		Mar	-	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-	
Apr 19	8:30 AM	Housing Starts		Mar	-	2060K	2090K	2195K	-	
Apr 19	8:30 AM	PPI			Mar	-	0.6%	0.6%	0.4%	-

[UpInArms]

10. Reports In

8:30am 04/19/05 U.S. MARCH PPI CRUDE GOODS PRICES UP 4.3%

8:30am 04/19/05 U.S. MARCH PPI INTERMEDIATE CORE PRICES UP 0.3%

8:30am 04/19/05 U.S. MARCH HOUSING STARTS AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE NOV.

8:30am 04/19/05 U.S. MARCH HOUSING STARTS BIGGEST DROP SINCE JAN. 1991

8:30am 04/19/05 U.S. MARCH HOUSING STARTS DOWN 17.6% TO 1.84 MLN

8:30am 04/19/05 U.S. MARCH PPI INTERMEDIATE PRICES UP 1%

8:30am 04/19/05 U.S. MARCH PPI ENERGY PRICES UP 3.3%

8:30am 04/19/05 U.S. MARCH CORE PPI UP 0.1% VS. 0.3% EXPECTED

8:30am 04/19/05 U.S. MARCH PPI UP 0.7% VS. 0.6% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

11. U.S. March PPI up 0.7%, core rate up 0.1%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38461.3542100579-834295189&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Soaring energy prices pushed U.S. producer prices up by 0.7% in March, but core inflation remained tame, rising 0.1%, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. The 0.7% increase in the headline PPI was a bit higher than the 0.6% expected by Wall Street economists, but the 0.1% gain in the core rate was much lower than the 0.3% estimated. The PPI is now up 4.9% in the past 12 months. The core rate is up 2.6%. Energy was the main culprit in March, with prices rising 3.3%, the largest gain since October. Prices of intermediate goods destined for further processing increased 1% in March and crude goods prices increased 4.3%.

[spotbird]

29. The core rate is a distraction.

People spend their money on the volatiles.

[UpInArms]

12. U.S. HOUSING STARTS SHOW BIGGEST DROP SINCE JAN. 1991

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={F7D5ADFD-31FA-4E36-AC73-A0C1B07C8D16}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Construction of new U.S. houses fell sharply in March after hitting a 21-year high in the previous month, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday.

Housing starts fell 17.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted 1.837 million annualized units. Read government release.

The drop was much larger than expected. Economists were looking for starts to fade to 2.09 million. See Economic Calendar

February's new construction was revised higher to 2.229 million from the 2.195 million level reported last month. This was the highest rate of housing starts in 21 years.

Building permits for new housing fell 4% to a 2.023 million annual rate. This is the lowest level since last August. Single family permits fell 5.4% to 1.552 million.

Both apartment and single family housing starts fell sharply in March.

Starts of new single-family homes fell by 14.4% to a 1.539 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. This is the also sharpest decline since Jan. 1991.

...more...

[MARALE]

41. I could have told you that

I work at a Utilities company and have not seen even half the amount of new construction going on compared with last year. It is really slow for lots of things construction related. Even with the good weather, we are not seeing what we usually do and it is a little freaky. This should be one of the best months for building in this part of the country, and nobody is starting anything. That also could have to do with the biggest factory not signing the Union contract and threatening to move out of the country.:shrug:

[AP]

76. I think I read that now that there is so much speculation, profit margins

are narrowing, which makes everything riskier.

[UpInArms]

18. U.S. core PPI remains tame

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B70412663%2D0284%2D415E%2D85CF%2D57145CE0BFA2%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Soaring energy prices pushed U.S. producer prices up by 0.7% in March, but core inflation remained tame, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.

Core prices, which exclude food and energy, increased 0.1% in March, the agency said.

The 0.7% increase in the Producer Price Index was a bit higher than the 0.6% expected by Wall Street economists, but the 0.1% gain in the core rate was much lower than the 0.3% estimated in the survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.

The PPI is now up 4.9% in the past 12 months. The core rate is up 2.6%. The PPI had risen 0.4% in February, with the core rate up 0.1%. Read the full release.

In a separate report, the Commerce Department said housing starts plunged 17.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.84 million. See full story.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. filling in the blanks:

Apr 19	8:30 AM	Building Permits	Mar	2023K	2075K	2094K	2107K	2107K	
Apr 19	8:30 AM	Core PPI		Mar	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-	
Apr 19	8:30 AM	Housing Starts		Mar	1837K	2060K	2090K	2229K	2195K	
Apr 19	8:30 AM	PPI			Mar	0.7%	0.6%	0.6%	0.4%	-

[RawMaterials]

13. Coca-Cola 1st-Qtr Net Drops 11% on Marketing Costs

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- Coca-Cola Co., the world's largest soft-drink maker, said first-quarter earnings fell 11 percent, less than analysts' estimates, on higher spending to advertise new drinks.

Net income for the maker of Coca-Cola Classic and Sprite fell to $1 billion, or 42 cents a share, from $1.13 billion, or 46 cents, a year earlier, the Atlanta-based company said in a statement today. Sales rose 3.7 percent to $5.27 billion.

snip..

`Coca-Cola is in a turnaround situation,'' said Amy Bonkoski, a Cleveland-based analyst at National City Corp., which manages $33 billion including 3.5 million Coca-Cola shares. ``Coke is very strong in carbonated soft drinks, but the growth is on the noncarbonated side.''

Excluding one-time items such as costs to repatriate foreign earnings, Coca-Cola said it would have earned 47 cents a share, more than the 43-cent average estimate of 17 analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial.

PepsiCo, based in Purchase, New York, said on April 14 that first-quarter earnings rose 13 percent because of surging demand for soft drinks in China and India and Frito-Lay snacks in the U.S.

Annual Meeting

Shares of Coca-Cola fell 32 cents to $40.97 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Before today, shares fell 24 percent in the past five years, while rival PepsiCo rose 60 percent over the period.



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aYrYvlwMOhiM&refer=us

[Danmel]

15. Doesn't GM report today?

Their numbers aren't going to be pretty.

[D-Notice]

60. Yep

Lost $1.1 billion in the 1st 3 months of the year

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4460891.stm

[RawMaterials]

17. Coke shares gain as revenue beats

Revenues climb 4%; Unit case volume grows 3%

Coca-Cola's stock (KO: news, chart, profile) was last up 2.5% at $42 in pre-market trading on Instinet.

Before the bell, Coca-Cola said that it earned $1 billion, or 42 cents a share on the period. That is down from $1.13 billion, or 46 cents a share in the year-ago quarter.

However, earnings for the latest quarter included charges totaling 7 cents a share which were offset by gains of 3 cents a share.

The Thomson First Call average estimate was for earnings of 43 cents a share on revenue of $5.17 billion.

Revenue for the Atlanta-based company came in at $5.27 billion, vs. $5.08 billion in the year-ago quarter and the Wall Street forecast of $5.17 billion.

North American sales were flat at $1.6 billion compared with the same quarter a year ago, reflecting a 2% decline in gallon sales as a result of two fewer shipping days, which was partially offset by improved concentrate pricing and mix.

Growth in North American unit case volume was also flat, with carbonated unit case volume slipping 1% although diet and light products continue to show growth, the company said.

It was a better performance for its noncarbonated products, with its Powerade and Dasani brands delivering strong double-digit unit case volume growth driven by market share gains.


http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B74911F3A%2DFD2B%2D4B34%2D8EE6%2DDF0DB7D5974A%7D


so earnings are lower(missing estimates) but stock still goes up because of increase in revenue? :shrug:

[UpInArms]

86. Coca-Cola vows to change perception of its practices abroad

http://www.accessnorthga.com/news/ap_newfullstory.asp?ID=59667

The Coca-Cola Co. vowed Tuesday to change the perception of people who still believe it permits abusive practices abroad, a tough sell to some shareholders who bombarded the beverage giant with questions about human rights and water depletion.

At his first annual meeting since taking over the Atlanta-based company's top post, chief executive Neville Isdell had his hands full pushing through Coke's routine business of the day.

Shareholders didn't want to talk about re-electing the board of directors or appointing an independent auditor. Instead, they questioned Isdell about issues he's heard before, namely the killings of several union workers at Coke bottling plants in Colombia and accusations that some of Coke's plants in India have depleted local groundwater.

Isdell said Coke has not done anything wrong in the two countries, noting that government inquiries in Colombia have dismissed the accusations that Coke was complicit in the deaths by failing to protect workers there. He also said a high court in India has sided with Coke over the water dispute. Even so, Isdell conceded that the company's best efforts to put the questions to rest have not been successful. Last year's annual meeting also descended into questions about alleged abuses abroad.

...more...

Note: it's all about "perception" not changing their actions, which they deny are reprehensible :banghead:

[54anickel]

14. Investment Banks Home in on Hedge Fund M&A Fees

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=reutersEdge&storyID=8213343&pageNumber=0

snip>

Hedge funds are already huge money-spinners for investment banks, accounting for around 12.5 percent of their revenues last year, from activities such as lending stock for short-selling or clearing and settling trades.

Now banks see fresh opportunities to boost revenue from hedge funds, which are increasingly seeking merger and acquisition (M&A) or corporate finance services.

snip>

As one hedge fund said to us the other day: 'We're are not so interested anymore in being event-driven, we are interested in becoming event drivers."'

snip>

But advising hedge funds could throw up conflicts for the banks if the lines between private equity investors -- which the banks also advise -- and hedge funds become increasingly blurred.

"It's a facet of a broader trend which is that private equity and hedge funds are converging," said Rubinstein.

more...

[UpInArms]

16. General Motors loses $1.1B

CEO cites health-care costs, 'disappointing' North America sales

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B17C2588F%2D1518%2D4369%2DBDC7%2D5912DA5217FC%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - General Motors Corp. lost slightly less money in the first quarter than analysts had expected Tuesday as the No. 1 U.S. automaker, undergoing a multimillion dollar restructuring, swung to a loss of more than $1 billion.

GM's net loss was $1.1 billion, or $1.95 a share, including $265 million, or 47 cents a share, of special charges for restructuring in Europe and cutting salaried positions in the U.S.

Its adjusted loss was $839 million, or $1.48 a share, compared with a profit of $1.2 billion, or $2.12 a share in the year-ago quarter. The results matched its earlier outlook and were a penny better than the average analyst forecast of a $1.49 a share loss from Thomson First Call.

"While most of our business units exceeded expectations, the results at GM North America were clearly disappointing," said chairman and chief executive Rick Wagoner.

GM's revenue fell 4.3% to $45.8 billion.

The Detroit manufacturer's North America automotive operations lost $1.3 billion, compared with earnings of $401 million a year ago. "This deterioration reflects lower sales and production volumes, a tougher pricing environment, an unfavorable sales mix, and a continuing, large health-care burden," GM said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

74. General Motors' billion-dollar loss rattles Big Three

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38461.5252576968-834303870&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Major U.S. automakers saw their shares sit out the broader market rally Tuesday after General Motors (GM) said it lost a billion dollars in the first quarter, citing health-care costs and lower vehicle sales. GM shares fell 4% to $25.16, touching 12-year lows early in the session. Ford Motor (F) reacted with a 1.5% decline to $9.19 while German-American carmaker DaimlerChrysler (DCX) shed less than 1% to $39.54. Honda Motor (HMC) added 1% to lead Japanese manufacturers higher.

[UpInArms]

19. Saks to sell north, south midprice dept stores: WSJ

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38461.1755204167-834288589&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Saks Inc. (SKS) plans to sell its midprice chains in north and south groups of stores, the Wall Street Journal said Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter. If those stores are sold, it could then sell off Saks Fifth Avenue, the report said. The northern stores, which already are managed together, include the Carson Pirie Scott, Bergner's, Boston Store, Younkers and Herberger's chains, while the southern stores, also managed together, include the McRae's and Proffitt's chains, the report said. It's unclear whether the Parisian chain, managed separately, would be included in a sale of the southern division.

[ozymandius]

20. early blather

9:00AM:
S&P futures vs fair value: +3.6.

Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.5.

Still shaping up to be a higher open for the cash market, as futures trade holds steady above fair value and investors digest more earnings reports... Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has beaten Q1 forecasts by $0.05 but General Motors (GM) despite posting a narrower than expected loss, has declined to provide guidance... Meanwhile, Cablevision Systems' (CVC) raised $17.1 bln bid for Adelphi has also contributed to this morning's upbeat sentiment

[UpInArms]

21. Pfizer profit dives by 87%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB6B432B1%2D50A9%2D45DF%2D91DF%2DE03A52CDD3B9%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Pfizer Inc. on Tuesday said first-quarter earnings dropped 87% due to numerous charges, including one for suspending sales of pain-reliever Bextra.

Pfizer (PFE: news, chart, profile) said that the suspension of Bextra sales cost the company $766 million for the period. However, the company said that it expects to return to double-digit earnings growth in fiscal 2006.

In early April, the Food and Drug Administration formally requested that Bextra, which had 2004 sales of $1.3 billion, be removed from the U.S. market due to safety concerns.

Before the opening bell, Pfizer (PFE: news, chart, profile) reported first-quarter earnings of $301 million, or 4 cents per share, down from its year-ago profit of $2.33 billion, or 30 cents per share.

The quarterly results included a charge of $622 million, or 8 cents per share, related to its 2003 acquisition of Pharmacia, the aforementioned $766 million in charges related to Bextra, and $2.19 billion in tax expenses related to repatriated earnings under the American Jobs Creation Act.

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. Exxon rewards chairman with $38 million

http://www.fortwayne.com/mld/journalgazette/business/11423837.htm

Buoyed by high oil prices, Exxon Mobil Corp. had a record-breaking year in 2004, and chairman and chief executive Lee R. Raymond shared in the company’s success with a $38 million compensation package, the largest U.S. oil company said.

Exxon said that Raymond, 66, was paid $7.5 million in salary and bonus plus restricted stock worth $28 million and nearly $2.6 million more in other compensation and incentives.

That was an increase from Raymond’s 2003 package worth about $27.9 million.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. MetLife grants 400,000 stock options to CEO Benmosche

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BAF55F6FC%2DFE83%2D4E16%2D8D13%2DA75F204767C4%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- MetLife Inc. (MET) granted 765,000 stock options to top executives as it negotiates approval for its contentious planned acquisition of Traveler's Life & Annuity, according to regulatory filings Monday.

The largest reported stock-option grant was to MetLife Chairman and Chief Executive Robert H. Benmosche, who received options to acquire 400,000 shares at $38.47 each.

Shares of MetLife traded Monday afternoon at $38.60 each.

MetLife has agreed to buy Traveler's, the Hartford-based insurer, from Citigroup Inc. (C), but the deal ran into snags as Connecticut officials balked at proposed job cuts that were part of the merger. MetLife agreed last week to defer job cuts to win approval from the state.

Other notable grants reported in filings released Monday by the Securities and Exchange Commission included 90,000 stock options for MetLife Chief Operating Officer C. Robert Henrikson and 55,000 options for Lisa M. Weber, the insurer's president of individual business.

...more...

[UpInArms]

24. Will the NYSE boot Krispy Kreme?

Commentary: Latest delay of annual report risks listing

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B852AC4DD%2DBD10%2D4226%2D9201%2D6A1AF0C7F354%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN DIEGO (MarketWatch) -- It's no surprise that Krispy Kreme delayed -- yet again -- the filing of its annual report for its last fiscal year. The only question is: What took the doughnut maker so long to fess up?

It's not saying. But its latest SEC filing suggested there could be further accounting restatements as an internal review continues.

That's interesting, but the part of story that is perhaps most intriguing is the partial disclosure of last year's results. Revenues were $153 million, which is $11 million less than already-reduced analyst estimates.

Also worth nothing: Weekly average sales per store deteriorated further in the last five weeks of the quarter. The company had reported that overall sales were down 18% in the first eight weeks of the quarter. They were down 25% at company-owned stores. Now, however, the company is saying that overall sales were down 20% for the full quarter, and 27% at company-owned stores.

"That means company stores were averaging only slightly more than $50,000 per week, down from $69,000 a year ago," says longtime Krispy Kreme (KKD: news, chart, profile) bear Eric Von der Porten, who owns both puts and calls on the company. At the same time, he adds, "Franchise stores were apparently averaging about $46,000 per week, down from $54,000. With historical trends suggesting that breakeven is more than $51,000 per week, it's clear that the company has a very tough road ahead."

...more...

[UpInArms]

26. RadioShack profit plunges 19% on wireless weakness

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BAD91FFE0%2DB212%2D4933%2D991E%2DF9887AA1B32B%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - RadioShack saw its first-quarter profit plunge by 19 percent amid a marked slow down in sales of wireless products and said its full-year results would miss Wall Street's expectations.

The Fort Worth, Texas-based electronics retailer said net income for the quarter that ended March 31 dipped 19% to $55 million, or 34 cents a share, compared with the $68 million, or 41 cents a share it made last year.

Shares of RadioShack (RSH: news, chart, profile) fell 23 cents to end at $24.30 on Monday

The nation's third-largest electronics seller said sales rose 3%, topping $1.12 billion. On a same-store basis -- which measures receipts at units open longer than a year -- sales fell 1%.

...more...

[UpInArms]

27. NVR Inc. Q1 earns, rev. rise, but miss expectations (homebuilder)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38461.3847223843-834297060&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- NVR Inc. (NVR) reported first-quarter earnings of $117.9 million, or $14.38 a share, up from $100.6 million, or $12.58 a share in the same period a year ago, but below the average analyst estimate compiled by Thomson First Call of $15.09 a share. Revenue rose 9% to $956.6 million from last year's $878.6 million, missing analyst projections of $1.05 billion. New orders were 3,312 units vs. last year's 3,318 units. Home settlements fell 3% to 2,615 units due to development delays. The homebuilder reiterated its 2005 earnings growth forecast of 15%. The stock closed Monday down $2.91 at $749.10.

[UpInArms]

28. Lucent profit rises on wireless gains (and one time tax benefit)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B1464F6E8%2D4E53%2D432A%2DB31B%2DC946F28B10B1%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Lucent Technologies Inc. said Tuesday that it quadrupled its second-quarter profit, bolstered by strong sales of wireless-networking gear and a one-time tax benefit.

In a separate move, Lucent said it will combine its wireless and traditional networking divisions, and the company named a new president of its famed Bell Labs research unit.

In the quarter ended March 31, the Murray Hill, N.J., network-equipment maker said earnings rose to $282 million, or 6 cents a share, from $68 million, or 2 cents a share, in the year-ago quarter.

Sales rose 6% to $2.34 billion from $2.19 billion in the year-ago period, but revenue was flat compared with the prior quarter.

During the quarter, Lucent recorded onetime items of $119 million, or 2 cents a share, including a tax benefit of $103 million.

Excluding those items, Lucent earned 4 cents a share. The company was expected to earn 4 cents a share on sales of $2.31 billion, according to the consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call.

...more...

[spotbird]

30. The markets open up.

On all that good news, how liars figure.

[UpInArms]

33. 9:38 EST numbers (WHEE!)

Dow 10,121.65 +50.40 (+0.50%)
Nasdaq 1,926.77 +13.85 (+0.72%)
S&P 500 1,151.46 +5.48 (+0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 4.261 +0.12 (+0.28%)

NYSE Volume 98,577,000
Nasdaq Volume 119,247,000

[AnneD]

92. Look at that dead cat bounce

WOOOH WOOOH.:sarcasm:

[UpInArms]

31. Merrill Lynch's net falls 3%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8CF11C93%2D0C12%2D43C6%2DBCE6%2D7E98FCF20619%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Merrill Lynch & Co. on Tuesday reported first-quarter net income fell 3% on a decrease in investment banking and higher expenses during the quarter.

The company (MER: news, chart, profile) posted income of $1.21 billion, down from $1.25 billion, in the year-ago first quarter. Earnings per share amounted to $1.21 in both reporting periods.

Revenue rose 3% to $6.2 billion. According to a survey of analysts by Thomson First Call, the average forecast was earnings of $1.18 per share and revenue of $6.15 billion.

Earnings rose 2% and revenue rose 6% from the fourth quarter.

In addition, Merrill's board approved a 25% increase in the company's quarterly dividend, to 20 cents a share. The new dividend is payable May 25 to shareholders of record on May 6.

Moreover, the board set a stock-buyback authorization of $4 billion. The company exhausted its $2 billion repurchase program during the latest quarter.

...more...

[UpInArms]

34. Coca-Cola 1st-Qtr Net Drops 11% on Costs; Sales (in China) Jump

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aYPR1Jv3URnM&refer=top_world_news

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- Coca-Cola Co. said first-quarter earnings fell 11 percent, less than analysts' estimates, on spending to advertise new drinks. Surging sales in China produced the biggest revenue gain in three quarters.

Net income at the world's largest soft-drink maker dropped to $1 billion, or 42 cents a share, from $1.13 billion, or 46 cents, a year earlier, the Atlanta-based company said in a statement today. Sales rose 3.7 percent to $5.27 billion, helped by the decline of the U.S. dollar.

Coca-Cola's expenses climbed 12 percent after Chief Executive E. Neville Isdell increased marketing for new products including flavored Dasani waters. Revenue grew by more than 21 percent in China and 14 percent in Brazil. Coca-Cola trailed the 7.4 percent revenue gain at PepsiCo Inc., which leads in lower- calorie beverages such as juices and water.

<snip>

Excluding one-time items such as costs to repatriate foreign earnings, Coca-Cola said it would have earned 47 cents a share, more than the 43-cent average estimate of 17 analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial.

...more...

[ozymandius]

35. Ahhh! I misread the numbers.

9:40AM: Stocks open on an upbeat note amid eased inflation concerns and better than expected earnings... The core rate on March PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, has checked in up only 0.1% (consensus 0.2%) - the second straight month of such an increase after an unexpected 0.8% surge in January... Investors have embraced the news, as the data suggest that, while inflation is firming, it remains well contained...

On the earnings front, solid Q1 earnings and encouraging guidance from Texas Instruments (TXN 24.69 +1.77) should reflect positively on all things technology while strong Q1 earnings and a boosted FY05 outlook from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 69.47 +0.43), as well as stronger than anticipated results from fellow Dow components Pfizer (PFE 27.81 +0.21) and Coca-Cola (KO 42.54 +1.57), should provide a floor of support for blue chips...


Not necessarily bad news.

[UpInArms]

37. and tell me why Pfizer is gaining?

Pfizer profit dives by 87%

from post #21

[ozymandius]

38. I was looking at Coca Cola stock numbers - then whammo! - Pfizer

sticks out like the proverbial elephant in the room. What's up with that?

[54anickel]

45. Maybe, despite all the bad news, they still beat expectations by a penny?

Meanwhile they take a hit on taxes for those repatriated funds. But don't those funds help to explain the 5% increase in revenue? And wouldn't that be a "this year only" boost thanks to the Jobs Creation Act? Speaking of which - wonder how many and what type of jobs they'll be creating? :eyes:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB6B432B1-50A9-45DF-91DF-E03A52CDD3B9%7D&siteid=mktw

The quarterly results included a charge of $622 million, or 8 cents per share, related to its 2003 acquisition of Pharmacia, the aforementioned $766 million in charges related to Bextra, and $2.19 billion in tax expenses related to repatriated earnings under the American Jobs Creation Act.

Excluding items, the New York drug giant earned $4 billion, or 54 cents per share, in the March period. Revenue rose 5 percent in the latest three months to $13.09 billion.

The average estimate of analysts was for earnings of 53 cents per share in the quarter on revenue of $12.52 billion.

The company also revised its 2005 earnings forecast, saying it now expects adjusted earnings of $1.98 per share for 2005. Wall Street's current consensus estimate is for a profit of $1.97 per share for the year.

[ozymandius]

51. That's really odd.

Other companies have been brutally punished for merely beating expectations by a penny.

[54anickel]

52. Ah, but they make it read like they did it "Against all odds". Can't bet

against a sure winner like that now, can ya?

Edit to add:

HOT DAMN, give that CEO an extra bonus for that move!

http://www.aflcio.org/corporateamerica/paywatch/ceou/database.cfm?tkr=PFE&pg=1

[punpirate]

90. It might be that...

... if they're already taking a $2+ billion charge for taxes under the laughably-called Jobs Restoration Act, that means they have already repatriated about $30-35 billion which they intend to use for M&As... and we all know what those do to stock prices....

[UpInArms]

36. 9:47 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,110.49 +39.24 (+0.39%)
Nasdaq 1,926.39 +13.47 (+0.70%)
S&P 500 1,151.29 +5.31 (+0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.250 +0.01 (+0.02%)

NYSE Volume 183,299,000
Nasdaq Volume 193,690,000

inflation concerns and better than expected earnings... The core rate on March PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, has checked in up only 0.1% (consensus 0.2%) - the second straight month of such an increase after an unexpected 0.8% surge in January... Investors have embraced the news, as the data suggest that, while inflation is firming, it remains well contained...

On the earnings front, solid Q1 earnings and encouraging guidance from Texas Instruments (TXN 24.69 +1.77) should reflect positively on all things technology while strong Q1 earnings and a boosted FY05 outlook from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 69.47 +0.43), as well as stronger than anticipated results from fellow Dow components Pfizer (PFE 27.81 +0.21) and Coca-Cola (KO 42.54 +1.57), should provide a floor of support for blue chips...

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.0. Stage remains set for the cash market to open on a higher note as calmed inflation concerns and eased worries about slowing profit growth have underpinned a positive bias in pre-market trading

[UpInArms]

39. US chain store sales fall in second week of April

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=8225467

NEW YORK, April 19 (Reuters) - U.S. chain store sales fell in the second week of April, as stormy weather slowed down the demand for spring apparel, a report said on Tuesday.

Sales in April to-date were down 3.8 percent compared with March. Sales at major retailers rose by 1.5 percent on a year-over-year basis for the week ended April 16, said Redbook Research, an independent company.

"Stormy weather at the beginning of the week curtailed business in seasonal merchandise, especially apparel, mostly in parts of the South and Midwest regions," Redbook said.

"This stop and go pattern of Spring shopping influenced by weather has been evident for several weeks and has mostly been a disadvantage to department stores with their comparatively larger exposure to seasonal apparel," the report added.

...more...

I thought that the weather has been outstanding (but what do I know :eyes: )

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

42. We've never seen so many consecutive sunny days where I am...

Western PA has been just gorgeous.

So now we blame poor sales on "the weather"...is that the ultimate spin or what?!?!?!?:silly:

[54anickel]

40. Self delete - dupe

[UpInArms]

43. Survey shows funds turning cautious

Fund managers more risk averse in April ahead of sell-off

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE204EA23%2D8920%2D43EB%2D9E0F%2D84B3C0738DDB%7D&siteid=mktw

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Fund managers grew more defensive on stocks in April, a survey released Tuesday showed, foreshadowing the sell-off in the world equity markets last week.

David Bowers, chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch, said that the most recent survey showed a turn from the managers' outlook one month ago. "Fund managers were fully invested in the market in March, and positioned for positive growth surprises."

But the surprises have all been negative since then, Bowers said. "In the past month, the newsflow just hasn't come through and supported the stance," he said.

The survey was conducted between April 4 and April 10, before the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 420 points in three days last week amid concerns over U.S. economic growth trends.

"Last week's (worse than expected) economic data was the straw that broker the camel's back and tapped into the unease that was already there," Bowers said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

44. Snow - Fannie, Freddie portfolios should be limited

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38461.4143344676-834298498&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The retained mortgage portfolios of government-sponsored housing enterprises Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) should be limited in order to protect the economy from possible risk, Treasury Secretary John Snow said in a prepared speech Tuesday. Snow repeated the administration's view that a new regulator for the companies should have power to set minimum capital standards and to place either in receivership in the event of financial trouble. Shares of Fannie fell 2 cents to $54.38 and Freddie Mac shares rose 37 cents to $61.68.

is trouble brewing?

[naderzenithnow]

48. Anyone ignoring the volatiles in the PPI is wishful thinking.

Either a smoke screen so they unwind long positions or delusional idiots with long positions getting ready to get burned. Either way the volatiles are all that matters with oil headed over $60 in the next few months.

[AnneD]

94. tooo true

the consumer was already tapped out and the effects of the gas/oil prices will be the straw that breaks the camels back.

[54anickel]

49. Heh-heh, isn't that just a fancy word for Bankruptcy? Sheesh, hope those

new bankruptcy laws don't cause any problems.

[UpInArms]

46. Supervalu sees spending pressure ahead as profit slips

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BCF0D988B%2D7EC5%2D49D1%2D86A3%2DD26624F9650F%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Supervalu Inc. delivered slightly lower earnings for the fourth-quarter Tuesday and said it expected higher costs of food and fuel to pressure consumer spending the rest of the year.

Shares of Supervalu (SVU: news, chart, profile) opened the session lower by 73 cents, or 2.1%, to $33.04.

Minneapolis-based Supervalu posted fourth-quarter net income of $92.9 million, or 65 cents a share vs. $95.6 million, or 67 cents a share, last year.

Sales fell 8% to $4.59 billion from $5.04 billion, partly because this year's period was a week shorter. Supervalu, which also operates the Shop 'n Save and Save-A-Lot stores, outpaced the average estimate of 63 cents a share reached by analysts reporting to Thomson First Call.

...more...

[UpInArms]

47. 10:10 EST numbers and happy blather

Dow 10,116.85 +45.60 (+0.45%)
Nasdaq 1,926.70 +13.78 (+0.72%)
S&P 500 1,151.93 +5.95 (+0.52%)
10-Yr Bond 4.236 -0.13 (-0.31%)

NYSE Volume 361,568,000
Nasdaq Volume 333,131,000

10:00AM: Equities still on the offensive as the bulk of sector leadership remains positive... Pacing the way higher has been Energy (+1.6%), amid rising oil prices, while Technology (+0.8%) has been strong across the board, led by gains of 1.5% and 3.7% in Semiconductor and Networking, respectively... Financial (+0.4%) and Health Care (+0.1%) have posted modest gains amid strong quarterly earnings whiles solid follow through in Steel (+2.1%) and Diversified Metals (+2.5%) has helped lift Materials (+0.9%) and the interest-rate sensitive Utility (+0.3%) sector has taken advantage of falling bond yields...

Failing to do so, however, has been Homebuilding (-0.6%), in the wake of disappointing monthly starts and permits data, while Retail (-0.6%) has also shown signs of weakness...NYSE Adv/Dec 1872/682, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1777/662

[UpInArms]

55. Not the time to catch a falling knife

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B74C67C82%2DCB4E%2D4849%2DB4FE%2D8C289F8BA28F%7D&siteid=mktw

(great charts at link)

excerpt:

Yet also note that last week, the Dow posted three consecutive triple-digit losses. That's something it hasn't done since January 2003.

And if you look back at that time, those three straight triple-digit losses placed the Dow at 8,318 on January 2, 2003. It didn't place an absolute bottom until March 12, 2003, at 7,552 - that's an incremental loss of 9.2% in about nine weeks.

So just because the markets went into the tank last week, doesn't necessarily mean current levels represent a buying opportunity.

And if current levels do approximate an ultimate bottom -- which is possible -- chances are good there will be time to react to it. Against the current backdrop, the markets aren't likely to run away to the upside.

In the end, carving out a bottom is more a process than an event. If the markets are in that process, they just started yesterday. And if they aren't, incremental downside on the order of 10% is well within the realm of possibility.

...more...

[UpInArms]

56. AIG places chief admin officer on leave

Castelli helped AIG comply with Sarbanes-Oxley

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF9D18EDC%2D1F1C%2D4453%2D8CDB%2D3A0202F051B5%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Michael Castelli, chief administrative officer of American International Group, was placed on leave, becoming the latest executive casualty amid an accounting scandal at the giant insurer.

AIG (AIG: news, chart, profile) put Castelli on leave on Friday, Joseph Norton, a spokesman for the company, said Tuesday. He declined to say why or comment further.

Before being named a senior vice president and chief administrative officer in January, Castelli was AIG's Comptroller from 2000.

Castelli played a significant role helping the insurer comply with the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which was drawn up to stop corporate fraud and accounting scandals in the wake of the collapse of Enron and WorldCom.

...

Guess he didn't help them so well :eyes:

[UpInArms]

87. Shell, Bechtel Sell Power Unit to AIG

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=8228048

LONDON (Reuters) - Royal Dutch/Shell Group and U.S. construction firm Bechtel have agreed to sell their InterGen power generation joint venture for $1.75 billion, Shell said on Tuesday.

InterGen is to be sold to U.S. insurance and investment giant American International Group's Highstar Capital II fund and the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan. However, the owners will retain several of the unit's power plants.

Shell and Bechtel put the Boston-headquartered power company on the block last year and the sale forms part of Shell's plan to raise $12-$15 billion between 2004 and 2006 by selling non-performing and non-core assets.

Analysts said the sale was largely positive for Shell.

"It looks like they've sold the assets at fair value but it's a pity they didn't manage to sell all of the company," said Angus McPhail, oil analyst at ING.

...more...

I wonder if this is another one of those sham offshore buy/sell/lease transactions that are made for the reduction of taxes for all parties involved?

[54anickel]

57. Governors plot revamping of Medicaid

http://www.stateline.org/live/ViewPage.action?siteNodeId=136&languageId=1&contentId=25726

The nation's governors are working behind the scenes on a Medicaid proposal to fundamentally change how states and the federal government provide health care for the needy.

Governors are drawing up a reform proposal to present to Congress that goes beyond tinkering around the edges of the nation's most expensive health care program, which now covers 53 million Americans. The changes largely are aimed at curbing the explosive growth in the number of people who turn to government-funded Medicaid for medical care and at cutting the staggering public spending on long-term and nursing home care.

The ideas include allowing states for the first time to offer a slimmer package of benefits for certain people, such as the working poor or uninsured, and letting states seek higher co-payments for medical care, such as emergency room visits.

About a dozen governors, consulting with Medicaid officials from at least 35 states, have been holding teleconferences since early this year to draw up a counter-proposal to President Bush's budget plan to slash $45 billion from the federal contribution to the $330 billion state-federal Medicaid program. Details of the package haven't been publicly disclosed, but experts close to the negotiations said governors feel pressure to produce a Medicaid solution soon before Congress finishes work on the budget.

Virginia Gov. Mark Warner (D), questioned about the proposal at a Medicaid forum April 14, said governors still are ironing out the details of a comprehensive reform package that he described as "Medicaid Plus."

more...

[UpInArms]

58. (Retail) Sector dips with uneven earnings reports

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B77EE198E%2DE73F%2D4B4E%2DB037%2DA120D5534E46%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The retail sector's main measure moved modestly lower in early trading Tuesday as shares of RadioShack Inc. and Supervalu Inc. declined after the two reported lower quarterly earnings.

The S&P Retail Index ($RLX: news, chart, profile) was off slightly to 1.8 points to 407.35.

RadioShack (RSH: news, chart, profile) shares lost 31 cents, or 1.2%, to $24.04 after the company reported earnings that were sharply lower than last year's. See full story.

<snip>

Elsewhere, shares of Saks Inc. (SKS: news, chart, profile) climbed 21 cents, or 1.1%, to $18.07. The Wall Street Journal reported that the company was in a quandary trying to determine what to do with assets: split and sell off both the namesake stores and the moderate-price department stores; keep the Saks Fifth Avenue stores and get rid of the rest; or market the entire company.

...more...

So if Saks sells off all its stores, will it be called "Sacks"?

[ret5hd]

59. wow...look at gold.

[54anickel]

62. Looks like the buck's gatekeeper is failing to hold 84

Last trade 83.87 Change -0.13 (-0.15%)

Settle 84.00 Settle Time 23:35

Open 83.99 Previous Close 84.00

High 84.16 Low 83.85

Last tick: 2005-04-19 10:31:59 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

64. Oh yeah, something definitely goin' on in the currency pits

Last trade 83.79 Change -0.21 (-0.25%)

Settle 84.00 Settle Time 23:35

Open 83.99 Previous Close 84.00

High 84.16 Low 83.78

Last tick: 2005-04-19 10:36:16 ET
30-min delayed quote.

edit to add:

Next stop 83.50?

The June Dollar was lower overnight as it extends Monday's breakout below the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.33 signaling that a short-term high has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the early-April low crossing at 83.50 is the next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening in early-day session trading.

[UpInArms]

66. here's a chart from the daily dollar watch link

and here's the current yen



looks like a support just collapsed

[UpInArms]

68. a peek at the buck

Last trade 83.74 Change -0.26 (-0.31%)

Settle 84.00 Settle Time 23:35

Open 83.99 Previous Close 84.00

High 84.16 Low 83.70

Last tick: 2005-04-19 11:16:17 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

61. Top Timers Sport Bearish Bias

http://www.forbes.com/finance/2005/04/19/cz_jd_0419watch_inl.html

NEW YORK - The ugliness is getting heinous. From Thursday, April 7, through Friday, April 15, the Dow and S&P 500 Index both lost more than 4%, while the Nasdaq dipped 5.5%. Despite being deeply oversold, the Dow continued its losses on Monday, and the other two averages staged wimpy rallies. Unfortunately, the outlook isn't much better anytime sooner--if you place any stock at all in the ability of the best market timers to divine future market direction.

According to Timer Digest, the top ten timers over the past 12 months have a bearish consensus with six bears, two bulls, and 2 advisers who are "neutral." Plus, those neutral timers, in truth, sound more like bears than forecasters of a sideways market, and one of the "bulls" is just trying to play the oversold bounce with a small sliver of his cash position.

The best 12 month timer according to Timer Digest is Princeton, NJ-based David P. Luciano, Ph.D., doctor of psychology and editor of MarketBrief Hotline. Luciano shifted to a bearish outlook for stocks on March 7, the day the S&P closed at 1225, its highest close in the past year.

...more...

[54anickel]

63. Was just about to post this one. Must be on the same wave-length

again today.

[UpInArms]

67. Moonie Times: Court narrows stock fraud claims

http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20050419-102025-7755r.htm

Washington, DC, Apr. 19 (UPI) -- The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled paying an inflated price for a stock because of false statements is not enough to show a securities fraud injury.

A unanimous opinion written by Justice Stephen Breyer Monday said plaintiffs must show a direct connection between a defendant's action and the loss.

The ruling came in a case brought by people who bought stock in Dura Pharmaceuticals Inc. The purchases were made after some Dura officials allegedly made misrepresentations, or false statements, about future Food and Drug Administration approval of a new asthmatic spray device.

The purchasers claimed in federal court that the deception caused them to buy the stock at an inflated price.

A federal judge dismissed the suit, saying the buyers had not shown a "loss causation," or a causal connection between the spray device misrepresentation and their eventual financial loss. A federal appeals court reversed.

...more...

the USSC reversed the Appeals Court - :wow: that must make all those cheaters and liars shake in their boots :sarcasm:

[UpInArms]

69. Doral Financial to restate past earnings ($400 to $600 Million Decrease)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38461.4883896412-834301474&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Doral Financial Corp (DRL) said Tuesday it will restate earnings for recent past quarters after deciding it improperly calculated the value of floating rate interest only strips. The company said the restatement will result in a decrease in the fair value of the securities by $400 to $600 million. It said it estimates it will eventually have to take a $290 million to $435 million charge for the required adjustments. The firm said it will have to decide how to apportion the restatement over past periods, because the charge can't be taken in the current period, because it has to be reflected in results for the periods when the error was made.

[UpInArms]

70. 12:04 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,125.57 +54.32 (+0.54%)
Nasdaq 1,925.42 +12.50 (+0.65%)
S&P 500 1,151.99 +6.01 (+0.52%)
10-Yr Bond 4.213 -0.36 (-0.85%)

NYSE Volume 978,602,000
Nasdaq Volume 850,843,000

12:00PM: Market maintains gains midday amid eased inflation concerns, better than expected earnings and falling bond yields... While the overall March PPI rose 0.7%, as energy prices jumped 3.3%, the core rate on March PPI checked in up only 0.1% (consensus 0.2%), suggesting that inflation (while firming) is hardly out of control, encouraging investors to look for bargains in an arguably oversold market...

In addition to solid Q1 earnings and upbeat guidance from Texas Instruments (TXN 24.69 +1.77) last night, which have helped mitigate worries about slowing profit growth and improved sentiment throughout technology, 19 out of 27 S&P companies out with Q1 results this morning - from the likes of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 69.47 +0.43), which also boosted its FY05 outlook, to Coca-Cola (KO 42.54 +1.57, have also beaten analysts' expectations... Only 7 S&P constituents have matched consensus estimates versus just one notable earnings miss... Meanwhile, Treasurys have also attracted buyers, after the smaller than expected 0.1% rise in core PPI reduced fears of more aggressive Fed tightening (i.e. 50 bp), as yields on the 10-year note (+19/32) have fallen to as low as 4.19%...

A flight to quality, following ongoing troubles at General Motors (GM 24.92 -1.27), which has posted a narrower than expected loss but declined to provide guidance and further diminished the appeal for its near junk corporate bonds, has also provided a boost to Treasurys... Energy (+2.0%) continues to pace the way higher amid a more than 2.5% surge in oil prices... Crude oil futures ($51.50/bbl +$1.13) have climbed amid renewed concerns of tight U.S. refining capacity...

[UpInArms]

71. Markets ratchet back Fed rate hike expectations

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B8C80BBEB-9458-4E6B-A003-812F32BCC0F7%7D&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Market expectations for future rate hikes from the Federal Reserve were lower Tuesday after tame inflation news and a weak report on housing. The federal funds futures market at the Chicago Board of Trade continued to forecast quarter-point tightenings in May and June, but the odds of a quarter point increase in August fell from 45% to about 33%. The market is forecasting that the fed funds rate, currently 2.75%, will be 3.75% at the end of the year, implying that the Fed will skip raising rates at two of the remaining six meetings.

[UpInArms]

72. Fed's Yellen makes snivelling comments

12:26pm 04/19/05 YELLEN SEES EXCELLENT FUNDAMENTALS ON INFLATION

12:24pm 04/19/05 YELLEN SAYS ECONOMY GROWING MODESTLY ABOVE TREND

12:25pm 04/19/05 YELLEN SAYS ONLY FEW INDICATORS SUGGEST SLOWDOWN

12:23pm 04/19/05 FED'S YELLEN SAYS INFLATION WELL-CONTAINED

[UpInArms]

73. more drool from Yellen

12:30pm 04/19/05 YELLEN SAYS LONG-TERM RATES STILL A CONUNDRUM

12:31pm 04/19/05 YELLEN SAYS MONETARY POLICY STILL ACCOMMODATIVE

12:27pm 04/19/05 YELLEN SAYS HIGH OIL PRICES TO DAMPEN CONSUMER SPENDING

definition of conundrum:

riddle: a difficult problem
www.cogsci.princeton.edu/cgi-bin/webwn

A Conundrum is a puzzling question. In one variety of conundra (the unusual plural reflects the word's Latin origin), the question is posed as a riddle and the answer is or involves a pun. More broadly, a conundrum is any problem where the answer is very complex, possibly unsolvable without deep investigation. A mystery or paradox can often be phrased as a conundrum.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conundrum

"Conundrum" is the title of a '''' episode, from the fifth season. Its episode number is 214, and it first aired on 17 February, 1992.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conundrum_(Star_Trek)

So which "conundrum" is it?

a) A riddle?

b) A pun?

c) A Star Trek episode?

[54anickel]

80. Thru the process of elimination, I take C) A Star Trek episode

Ain't no mystery here - just Greenspin and his adoration of Friedman.

That Trek episode was the one where the crew suffered from amnesia where they have no clue as to which side they are on in a war, or why they are fighting it. Much like the selective amnesia of BushCo.

Further evidence that the correct answer is C! :evilgrin:

[AnneD]

95. Cool

A fellow treker.....OR are you ferengi??????Inquiring minds want to know :evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

77. Ooh! How much for you, honey?

[UpInArms]

78. LOL!

:rofl:

great cheeleader pic of Yellen :D

she probably does it for cheap, ya know?

[AnneD]

97. And a total

bitch too...I think :rofl: I think she is a smarter cheerleader...

[54anickel]

75. Tax outlook bleak for future retirees

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/3141162

If you want to replace your purchasing power in retirement, you'll have to pay more taxes to Uncle Sam today. You'll have to pay still more tomorrow. This will happen because Uncle Sam has had the power to tax Social Security benefits since 1983.

Few noticed back then because so few were taxed. One-half of your Social Security benefits plus all your other income had to exceed $32,000 for couples, $25,000 for singles. Very few retirees exceeded the threshold because $32,000 went nearly twice as far in 1983 as it does today.

And that's the problem.

Every year retirement benefits rise, but the $32,000 and $25,000 thresholds remain.

snip>

How much more in taxes will today's 30- and 40-year-olds pay if they try to do the same thing — replace 75 percent of their earning power at retirement?

The short answer: a lot more. Here's what I learned comparing the prospects of three couples trying to achieve the same goals at different times.

more...

Thank Goodness BeelzeBush is looking out for us all on this nasty tax front by lowering our future SS benefits. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

79. May, June crude higher in afternoon trading

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38461.533823206-834304526&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

DALLAS (MarketWatch) -- May and June crude added to gains Tuesday afternoon on the New York Mercantile Exchange as concerns about refining capacity kept the market supported. May crude was last up 2.4%, or $1.23, at $51.60 per barrel, while June crude, which becomes the front month contract Thursday, gained 3.1%, or $1.58, to $53.05 per barrel. May gasoline added 3.1%, or 4.66 cents, to $1.541 per gallon.

[54anickel]

81. Yeah, right. Did crude really go up - or is that it just takes a few more

friggen devalued "petro-bucks" to buy a barrel? Hmmmm, inquiring minds want to know!

[UpInArms]

82. Refining concerns boost crude, gasoline

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9DAD3749%2D9051%2D40BB%2DA906%2DA3FA0687AE0A%7D&siteid=mktw

DALLAS (MarketWatch) - Energy futures added to gains Tuesday afternoon on the New York Mercantile Exchange amid concerns about refining capacity.

"Oil prices rose overnight as traders were satisfied that nearby crude oil was holding above $50 and on renewed concern of tight U.S. refining capacity, despite comfortable product inventory levels," said Tim Evans, energy analyst at IFR Markets.

In the news Monday, Valero Energy (VLO: news, chart, profile) said it shut down the coker processing unit at its St. Charles refinery in Louisiana on Saturday for 10 to 14 days to conduct unscheduled maintenance. The downtime will result in a production loss of about 8,000 barrels a day of gasoline and 25,000 barrels a day of distillate fuels.

On the Nymex, the May crude contract rose 2.4%, or $1.23, to $51.60 a barrel, and June crude, which becomes the front month contract on Thursday, gained 3%, or $1.53, to $53 a barrel.

May gasoline added 3.2%, or 4.71 cents, to $1.5415 a gallon.

According to the AAA Daily Fuel Gauge report, the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline was $2.224, compared with $2.244 a gallon on Monday.

...more...

doesn't that $38 Million annual compensation for the Exxon CEO just give you the warm fuzzies?

[54anickel]

84. Great timing for that unscheduled maintenance. But seeing as how

there's been little to no investment in refining for sooo many years (had to use the money to continue to recruit such exceptional CEO talent), I guess they were long over-due for a bit of work. :eyes:

Gotta run for the day :hi:

[UpInArms]

85. Study: Oil and gas jobs declining

Report warns of looming personnel crunch in the industry

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BBFC9CCC0%2D891B%2D4B1B%2D9E22%2D48D91B1C6949%7D&siteid=mktw

DALLAS (MarketWatch) - The oil and gas industry, riding high on record oil and gas prices and cash flow, saw the number of its employees decline for the 20th time in 23 years, a study by John. S. Herold revealed.

The research firm said its analysis found that employment by the largest U.S. oil and gas companies fell 4.1% in 2004.

The top 25 companies tracked by Herold eliminated 120,000 jobs since 1999. The industry lost more than 21,000 jobs in 2004 to total a little more than 514,000. Since the 1981 oil price peak, the largest oil companies have shed more than 1.11 million employees, the Herold study said.

"The oil industry faces a Herculean task in overcoming its reputation for brutal treatment of professionals during the past two decades of downsizing," said Herold Chairman & CEO Arthur Smith, in a statement. "Our finding suggests that unless oil and gas companies take drastic steps to reverse the 'brain drain' of the energy industry, a severe personnel crunch is preordained."

<snip>

The U.S. Department of Labor's job outlook, cited by Herold, anticipates that oil and gas employment will have declined by 28% in 2012 compared with 2002. The number of domestic jobs is expected to fall to 89,000 positions in 2012 from 123,000.

...more...

[AnneD]

102. I went to that rodeo

and rode that bucking bronc.....that's why I got into health care. I have to laugh....the oil and gas co's rep for treating employees cruelly is well deserved. I laugh at the way other co's play office politics. Compared to oil and gas, they are rank amatures....

[54anickel]

104. Heh-heh, so they're trying to say these jobs of yesteryear are suddenly

the great jobs of the future again? I dunno, once bitten - twice shy. If I was one of those battered petro-engineers I doubt I'd be telling my kids that's the career for them!

Mamas don't let you babies grow up to be oil-geeks.
Don't let 'em pick oil sites, and drill them old rocks.
Let em' doctors and lawyers and such.

Mamma, don't let you babies grow up to be oil-geeks.
They'll never have a home,
they'll have to fend on their own.
Even with the Exxon they love.

Though the study found that general enrollment in geology, geophysics and petroleum engineering at the Colorado School of Mines is down 44% since 1986, Herold sees the January announcement from the Royal Dutch/Shell Group (RD: news, chart, profile) (SC: news, chart, profile) that it would hire 1,000 petroleum engineers as one positive sign.

Another is that entry-level geologists earn, on average, $65,600 per year, which is up 24% since 1999.

[UpInArms]

98. Energy futures end sharply higher ($53.57 bbl)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38461.6318860185-834309433&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

DALLAS (MarketWatch) -- Crude and its products closed significantly higher Tuesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with the group enjoying what one analyst called a "technical victory." "Although the bulls make take this as fresh evidence of their brilliance, there is really no fresh fundamental news to go along with this advance," said Tim Evans, energy analyst at IFR Markets. May crude, which expires Wednesday, closed up 3.8%, or $1.92, at $52.29 per barrel. June crude rose 4.1%, or $2.10, to close at $53.57 per barrel. May gasoline added 5.1%, or 7.57 cents, to close at $1.5701 per gallon. May heating oil gained 3.5%, or 5.07 cents, to close at $1.493 per gallon.

[54anickel]

105. Bwahaha! They was only kiddin' when they let it drop the other week.

Just a little fake-out - Bush talks tough on oil, G7 gets into the game, and Greenspin continues with his "temporary" BS.

Hell, remember when you were a teen and the folks kept raggin' on you to clean up your room? First you rebel. Then you got wise to the game. Just kick everything under the bed to make it look good so you could get the damned car keys.

Meanwhile, look at the buck -

Last trade 83.59 Change -0.24 (-0.29%)

Settle 83.76 Settle Time 16:34

Open 83.99 Previous Close 84.00

High 84.16 Low 83.52

Last tick: 2005-04-19 16:49:07 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

83. 1:08 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,127.62 +56.37 (+0.56%)
Nasdaq 1,926.13 +13.21 (+0.69%)
S&P 500 1,151.75 +5.77 (+0.50%)
10-Yr Bond 4.205 -0.44 (-1.04%)

NYSE Volume 1,205,568,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,032,849,000

1:00PM: Stocks continue to hold their own as buying remains widespread across most areas... The dollar, however, has been weak against the euro (1.3028) and the yen (107.02), extending losses for the fourth straight session, after a benign core PPI figure and a 14-year low in housing starts underpinned slower than anticipated economic growth... But a weaker greenback has translated into increased demand for Gold, which has surged 1.2% to 434.70/oz. and helped support buying interest throughout the Materials sector (1.2%)... NYSE Adv/Dec 2241/946, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1865/1045

12:30PM: Stocks show little vigor, having moved little in the past hour, as a bullish bias remains intact... Advancers on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq hold a more than 2 to1 advantage over decliners, while the ratio of up to down volumes also suggests a widely positive sentiment at both the Big Board and the Composite... Meanwhile, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq continue to trade well above initial support levels and, more notably, have recently pushed through resistance levels of 10105, 1149 and 1921, respectively...NYSE Adv/Dec 2315/856, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1894/969

and the buck:

Last trade 83.82 Change -0.18 (-0.21%)

Settle 84.00 Settle Time 23:35

Open 83.99 Previous Close 84.00

High 84.16 Low 83.70

Last tick: 2005-04-19 12:38:16 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

91. 2:08 EST numbers and blather (Up UP and Away!)

Dow 10,141.97 +70.72 (+0.70%)
Nasdaq 1,929.38 +16.46 (+0.86%)
S&P 500 1,153.35 +7.37 (+0.64%)
10-Yr Bond 4.211 -0.38 (-0.89%)

NYSE Volume 1,436,211,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,239,956,000

2:00PM: Buyers show some resolve, as the indices touch session highs, spearheaded by gains in technology... Providing the bulk of strength throughout the sector has been broad-based interest in chip stocks... While a 6.0% surge in shares of Texas Instruments (TXN 24.31 +1.39), in the wake of its strong Q1 report, has helped lift the Semiconductor Index 1.9%, Intel's (INTC 22.54 +0.33) Q1 report after the bell tonight should set an even more distinctive tone for chip stocks, as well as the broader market, tomorrow...

The tech bellwether, which has beaten analysts' expectations in six of the last eight quarters, is widely expected to earn $0.31 a share on $9.31 bln in revenues... NYSE Adv/Dec 2400/856, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1950/1022

1:30PM: Not much changed since the last update, as the indices maintain widespread gains, despite another spike in oil prices to new session highs... Crude oil futures have again surpassed $52/bbl, amid speculation that increasing demand for gasoline heading into the summer driving season will eat into US inventories and hamper refining capacity... While a tenth consecutive build is widely expected in tomorrow's weekly crude oil supplies (consensus +1.5 mln barrels), many analysts are expecting a draw in gasoline stockpiles of about 250K barrels...

Gasoline futures have surged 4.8% today to $1.56/gallon...NYSE Adv/Dec 2313/909, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1878/1067

[UpInArms]

93. 3:14 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,126.82 +55.57 (+0.55%)
Nasdaq 1,928.67 +15.75 (+0.82%)
S&P 500 1,152.47 +6.49 (+0.57%)
10-Yr Bond 4.205 -0.44 (-1.04%)

NYSE Volume 1,738,965,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,475,566,000

3:00PM: Market still confined to a relatively tight trading range late in the day, but positive market internals continue to underpin a much imrpoved sentiment... Bucking the bullish bias, however, has been Health Care (-0.2%)... Providing the bulk of the weakness has been Boston Scientific (BSX 29.55 -1.20) - one of the worst performers on the S&P... While BSX matched analysts' Q1 expectations with an 85% increase in profits, the company has warned that sales gains (related primarily to its Taxus stent) will slow in coming quarters...

An 87% decline in Q1 profits from Pfizer (PFE 27.35 -0.25), due in part to the withdrawal of Bextra, as well as some profit taking in Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 68.88 -0.16), following strong Q1 earnings and an upbeat FY05 outlook, have also weighed on the sector...NYSE Adv/Dec 2416/860, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1968/1055

2:30PM: More of the same as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges... Pacing the way higher on the Dow has been Coca-Cola (KO 42.82 +1.85) following strong Q1 earnings... More notably, however, has been a reversal in shares of General Motors (GM 26.34 +0.15) after the CFO confirmed that a dividend cut is not being considered... The auto maker has been under pressure all day after failing to provide guidance in the wake of its largest quarterly loss (-$1.1 bln) in 13 years...

Other notable components gaining ground include: BA (+2.3%), CAT (+2.2%), DD (+2.5%), HON (+1.6%), MMM (+2.7%) and XOM (+3.5%)...NYSE Adv/Dec 2404/856, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1972/1031

[UpInArms]

88. Forest reports decreased earnings

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0588FBA2%2D1D68%2D4AC4%2D9953%2D047AC7932B56%7D&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Forest Laboratories reported greatly reduced fourth-quarter earnings Tuesday, attributing the decline to generic competition for its antidepressant drug Celexa and charges taken for the repatriation of foreign profits.

For the quarter ended March 31, Forest (FRX: news, chart, profile) reported a net income of $52.8 million, or 15 cents a share, including a charge of 25 cents a share for the repatriation of $1.24 billion in foreign profits under the American Jobs Creation Act. This compared with a net income of $145.5 million or 38 cents a share for the same quarter last year.

Excluding the charge, Forest would have reported a net income of 40 cents a share, matching the financial forecast it issued on April 6 and Wall Street's consensus estimate.

Net revenue dropped to $635.2 million, versus $733.1 million last year. However, the company also made significant reductions in research, development, sales and administration costs.

...more...

more of that repatriation of foreign profits under the "American Jobs Creation Act" - wonder what jobs they are creating?

[UpInArms]

89. Bisys gives details on SEC probe

Company retains legal counsel after fund services investigation

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B58C842B8%2D6779%2D4F2A%2D8B0F%2D84B303A9CEB3%7D&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Bisys Group said Tuesday morning it has retained legal counsel and believes a previously disclosed Securities and Exchange Commission investigation is linked to relationships it had with mutual-fund firms.

The financial outsourcing services provider said the SEC probe may be linked to the structure and accounting for arrangements with mutual funds to use fees to pay for expenses relating to fund marketing and distribution. Fees paid to Bisys were also used to make payments to certain advisers and to pay for other expenses, the New York-based company said.

In recent years federal regulators have cracked down on revenue-sharing arrangements between brokers and fund companies that may create conflicts of interest.

Bisys said it told the SEC about a number of arrangements with funds that were entered into prior to December 2003, and that it has ended the arrangements or is in the process of terminating them.

...more...

Now these are the kind of folks I want handling my retirement funds :sarcasm:

[UpInArms]

99. U.S. airline employment dips in February

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38461.6390553472-834309874&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Employment at U.S. airlines fell 1.4% in February, according to the Transportation Department. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics' tally of the total number of workers employed by U.S. scheduled passenger airlines was 455,372 people, according to data released Tuesday.

[RawMaterials]

103. Closing Numbers and Blather

Dow 10127.41 +56.16 (+0.56%)
Nasdaq 1932.36 +19.44 (+1.02%)
S&P 500 1152.78 +6.80 (+0.59%)
10-Yr Bond 4.203% -0.46

NYSE Volume 2,130,677,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,792,847,000



Close: The bulls returned, as eased inflation fears, strong quarterly earnings and low bond yields sparked a broad-based rally that lifted all 10 economic sectors... Kicking things off to the upside were better than expected Q1 earnings and encouraging Q2 guidance from Texas Instruments (TXN 24.14 +1.22), which helped mitigate worries about slowing profit growth and improved sentiment throughout technology... While investors continued to sift through more earnings reports, they were awarded with a better than expected March CPI report...

While the overall March PPI rose 0.7% (consensus 0.6%), the core rate on March PPI was up only 0.1% (consensus 0.2%), suggesting that inflationary pressures remain well contained and that the Fed has reason to maintain its measured approach to tightening (i.e. in 25 bp increments)... The upbeat data renewed buying interest in both stocks and bonds, underpinning a bullish bias and providing investors with an ample opportunity to find bargains in an arguably oversold market... Treasurys closed near session highs, as the benchmark 10-year note finished up 19 ticks to yield 4.19% - its lowest closing level since Feb 17...

Bonds also got a boost amid ongoing troubles (i.e. diminished appeal for its near junk corporate bonds) at General Motors (GM 26.06 -0.13), which posted a narrower than expected loss but was under pressure all day after failing to provide guidance in the wake of its largest quarterly loss (-$1.1 bln) in 13 years...

Meanwhile, the fact that 19 out of 27 S&P companies - from the likes of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 68.97 -0.07), which also boosted its FY05 outlook, to Coca-Cola (KO 42.43 +1.46) - beat analysts' expectations, provided the floor of support the market needed to hold onto the bulk of today's gains into the close... Energy (+2.0%) paced the way to the upside, as oil prices surged 3.8% to over $52/bbl... Crude oil futures ($52.29/bbl +$1.92) climbed amid speculation that increasing demand for gasoline heading into the summer driving season will eat into US inventories and hamper refining capacity... Technology (+1.1%) also surged, with a gain of 1.7% in Semiconductor - following TXN's solid quarter and ahead of Intel's (INTC 22.63 +0.42) report after the bell - providing the bulk of strength throughout the sector...

Interest-rate sensitive sectors like Utility (+1.3%) and Financial (+0.3%) also finished higher... The latter got a boost from better than expected earnings from Northern Trust (NTRS 44.71 +0.91), State Street (STT 44.67 +3.48) and Merrill Lynch (MER 54.06 +0.82), which also boosted its dividend 25% and announced a $4.0 bln repurchase... Despite disappointing Mar. Housing Starts (1.837 mln versus estimates of 2.090 mln) and Mar. Building Permits (2.023 mln versus estimates of 2.094 mln), Homebuilding (+0.7%) finished higher...

Offsetting factors were lower bond yields, a 56% surge in D.R. Horton's (DHI 28.77 +1.31) Q2 earnings and upbeat analyst comments regarding attractive valuations within the space... Materials (+1.4%) also traded higher, amid strong follow through in Steel and weakness in the greenback... The dollar lost ground against the euro (1.3071) and the yen (106.79) after benign inflation data and a 14-year low in housing starts reinforced slower than anticipated economic growth... Even Health Care and Consumer Discretionary, despite weakness in Retail (-0.4%), inched into positive territory...

Health Care sector was under pressure throughout most of the session amid weakness in Pfizer (PFE 27.43 -0.17), which posted an 87% decline in Q1 profits - due in part to the Bextra withdrawal - and Boston Scientific (BSX 29.13 -1.62), which warned that sales gains (related primarily to its Taxus stent) will slow in coming quarters... Retail was under pressure in the wake of Disappointing April comp guidance from Target (TGT 47.94 -0.68) and uncertainty heading into JC Penney's (JCP 45.50 -1.02) analyst meeting...NYSE Adv/Dec 2481/838, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2075/990

[Sven77]

108. United States Mint to Develop 24-Karat Gold Bullion Investment Coin Progr

United States Mint to Develop 24-Karat Gold Bullion Investment Coin Program
http://www.usmint.gov/pressroom/index.cfm?action=press_release&ID=581

24-Karat Gold Collector Proof Coins to Follow

WASHINGTON – The United States Mint is announcing today that it will develop a program to manufacture 24-karat (99.99% fineness) uncirculated gold bullion investment coins in early 2006. This will mark the first time that the United States Mint will produce 24-karat gold coins. Upon completion of a successful test strike, the designs, specifications, quantities and denominations will be considered. Possible themes for the images on the 24-karat gold bullion coins will be presented by teleconference at the April 28, 2005 meeting of the Citizens Coinage Advisory Committee at the United States Mint in Washington. The potential global market for 24-karat gold bullion coins is estimated at $2.4 billion.

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D89IM6980.htm?campaign_id=apn_home_down