"Breathtaking" poll sees defeat for Canada Liberals

[Minstrel Boy]

Conservatives 36.2%
Liberals 25%
NDP 20.5%
BQ 12.6%

"Breathtaking" poll sees defeat for Canada Liberals

Mon Apr 11, 2005


OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's minority Liberal government is heading for defeat at the hands of the Conservatives after more than 11 years in power, a dramatic new poll is predicting.

The EKOS poll, commissioned by the Toronto Star, was taken after an advertising executive raised the stakes in a scandal about misuse of government cash by testifying he had paid large kickbacks to the Liberals in French-speaking Quebec.

The poll published on Monday showed support for the Conservatives rose seven points to 36.2 percent while the Liberals fell by nine points to just 25 percent.

...

EKOS polled 1,125 Canadians between Thursday and Saturday, and its survey is considered accurate to within 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The poll gave 20.5 percent support to the leftist New Democratic Party and 12.6 percent to the Bloc Quebecois, which runs only in Quebec.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2005-04-11T160006Z_01_ZWE149861_RTRUKOC_0_CANADA-POLITICS.xml

[Bo]

1. I find this hard to believe

[Pachamama]

13. Neo-cons have been planning their agenda in Canada too...just watch...

:eyes:

Let's hope our cousins north of the border prevent the destruction of their democracy before it hits them...hopefully the Canadians have been paying close attention....

[Wat_Tyler]

45. No, this one the Liberals fucked up all by themselves.

[ProgressiveConn]

2. How much money did Bush spend on Canadian Regime Change? nt

[tanyev]

44. And what kind of machines do they use for voting?

[Name removed]

3. Deleted message

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[Minstrel Boy]

5. It's because of an old money scandal

Chump change, in the big scheme of things. But it's the story.

There's also regime fatigue. Liberals have been in power since 1993.

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

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[Minstrel Boy]

9. They know talking about changing health care is a no-winner for them.

They might like to change it if they could, but they can't admit it.

[SidDithers]

10. What lines? nt

Sid

[Name removed]

15. Deleted message

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[Don Claybrook]

18. I know of 40 million people who would be willing to wait

No insurance for 40 million Americans means they don't have to worry about waiting in line. Just trying to make lemonade out of lemons.

[Spazito]

19. The Canadians that frequent AOL tend to be the

neo-con lites of Canada, take what they say with a HUGE dose of salt. Canadians are very pleased over all with their health care and fully support universal health care over privatization.

[Name removed]

24. Deleted message

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[Spazito]

28. LOL, and seniors get their medications from Canada

I am glad we can look after seniors and let the rich go wherever they choose. I am not wealthy and have had excellent care right here at home and don't have to worry about going bankrupt to have medical care unlike those in the US.

[SoCalDem]

22. Would that be our old pal....Ann Ecdotal??

:)

[Kagemusha]

14. The ruling party is being shown as being mafia-linked crooks

People have held the Liberals to be crooks for many years. However, in this country, actual syphoning of public money for direct political party support (like, diverting Dept of Agriculture funds into the Republican Party) is unprecedented banana-republicism and, while chicken feed compared to what's spent on national health care, is absolutely not chicken feed in terms of political spending.

In other words, this story not only proves the Liberals are as bad (as far as being crooks go) as people long suspected, but actually shows them to be worse, which is stunningly bad for the party's political prospects. This is despite the sitting Prime Minister probably being truthful when he says his hands are clean. (Unfortunately his predecessor's are dirty as hell)

[achtung_circus]

4. How is this likely to translate into seats

given the concentration of Reform (I refuse to call them Conservatives) support in the West?

Still a very scary thought. Harper scares me.

[Minstrel Boy]

8. Here's a .pdf of the regional breakdown of the poll:

http://www.thestar.com/static/PDF/050411_fed_vote.pdf

If these were the election results, it would probably mean a Conservative minority, though closer to a majority than the Liberals are now.

Conservatives are shown to be leading in Ontario, and a distant second to the BQ in Quebec. (That's a huge surprise, that they've passed the Liberals there.) NDP leading in BC and the Prairies. Conservatives running away with it in Alberta, naturally, and holding a slight lead on the Liberals in Atlantic Canada.

[warrens]

7. A 16 point swing in one week tied to one news event

Silly. The conservatives will no doubt do slightly better, but the Liberals are going to do better in some conservative areas because of their agricultural programs.

[Spazito]

21. Agreed, and when push comes to shove and Canadians are

asked if they want to sign on to missile defense which the faux Cons want, I suspect they will hold their nose, vote Liberal or NDP, not for the Cons.

The Liberals will be able to paint the faux Cons as supporting a separatist agenda for political expediency and endanger federalism when the dogfight starts.

[achtung_circus]

38. I'm going to have to call BS on that one.

I travel rural areas and deal with farmers. The only federal agriculture program producing any farm "income" in CAIS and you have to buy into CAIS. Liberals in rural Canada? Not the best fit in the world.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

11. I think we'd need to see some more polls

incase there is a bad poll methodology or statistical noise.

[durutti]

12. Are the NDP and BQ gaining?

That's all I care about.

[Minstrel Boy]

16. Both are up.

NDP and Liberal support are within the margin of error.

Martin played the fear card to bleed away NDP support in the days before the last election. I'd like to think he won't be able to do it again.

[Wat_Tyler]

46. That's the spirit.

The Liberals are damaged for the forseeable future - we'd better all hope to God that there are more NDP seats than ever in the next parliament - that's not partisanship on my part, that's something we'll need as a country when the Liberals crash.

[Spazito]

17. The same poll said that Canadians do not want to go near an

election until, at the earliest, after the Gomery Commission has finished and released a report. 62% Canadians hold this position so both the faux Conservatives and the NDP best take care if they intend to push an early election, Canadians will not take kindly to them.

Edited to add the exact quote from the poll re the % I quoted above:

"A full 62 per cent of those polled thought an election shouldn't take place until a report is issued from Gomery later this year and another 21 per cent said the integrity issue wasn't important enough to provoke an election.

Only 15 per cent said an election would be a good idea, "to clear the air."

These numbers tell me that this poll means little in reality, it resembles the ones that had the Cons winning a possible majority the last time, it didn't come close to reality once Canadians had to enter the booths and vote.

[daleo]

20. I don't believe it.

Probably a methodologically flawed poll (even if commissioned by the Toronto Star). Certainly a blip caused by this overblown sponsorship scandal.

[alphadog]

23. I'm not happy...

to see Ken Dryden may be out of a job...one of the best hockey players of the 70s and most interesting folks out there...

[Gloria]

48. Ken Dryden was from my time at Cornell, in fact, he was the

star hockey player and the Cornell Sun awarded him their Athlete of the Year at the annual banquet I attended at the Cayuga Inn, MANY moons ago!

I've heard him interviewed on Radio Canada International and it was so strange hearing him. And he looks a lot different than when I met him...!!

[wildflower]

25. Do "Liberal" and "Conservative" mean the same in Canada as in the U.S.?

I ask because I understand in other countries, such as Australia, the meaning is different.

-wildflower

[MADem]

29. Well, hell, DEMOCRATS here are conservative!!!

Pay down the debt, pay your bills, don't spend cash you don't have, avoid foreign entanglements, stop interfering in family and personal decisions....hell, that sounds like Barry Goldwater in some respects!!!

But the GOP aren't liberal, unless we are talking about the liberal reapportionment of wealth to the upper tier at the expense of those holding up the point of the pyramid. They're just fucking nuts!

[wildflower]

32. You do have a point! :)

[Massacure]

30. Ted Kennedy would be right wind in most other countries political spectrum

Here is a nice little image to display how far right and left things are in Canada:



Oh, and I "borrowed" the image from Joel Johannesen from http://www.proudtobecanadian.ca/threads/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=997&page=&view=&sb=5&o=&vc=1

[wildflower]

33. Ah...thanks! The graph and link are very helpful. n/t

[bin.dare]

37. hold on, hold on, that's a silly graphic even if it is by a canadian ...

... the Liberals are not left, at best they could be considered center. The NDP, while good, are centainly not "extreme left".

this joel guy doesn't know his canadian politics, imho.

[CHIMO]

26. Don't Forget The Pumping

That Harper has been doing on his own.

'Notwithstanding' called only way to halt same-sex unions

At a weekend rally, however, Mr. Harper told a crowd opposing same-sex marriage that 95 of 99 Conservative MPs back the traditional concept of marriage and promised that a Tory government would bring in legislation defining marriage as the union of one man and one woman.

“Undermining the traditional definition of marriage is an assault on the beliefs of all cultural and religious communities who have come to this country,” Mr. Harper said.

``Corruption is not a Canadian value. Marriage is a real Canadian value,'' Mr. Harper said to enthusiastic applause during a rally in Ottawa on Saturday.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20050411.wsamesex0411/BNStory/National/

[guntherconcept]

27. Yawn

This would possibly mean something if there was actually an election scheduled. Which there is not. People can rant all they want, because there is no cost to doing so right now. But if an election was pending, you can bet that much of that Conservative support would evaporate very quickly.

[daleo]

31. An example of Stephen Harper, Conservative leader

I am going by memory, but there was an anti-same sex marriage rally on the weekend in Ottawa, on Parliament Hill I think. Harper addressed the crowd, saying that the Liberals stand for corruption, using the alleged sponsorship scandal as an example. The Conservatives stand for true Canadian values, such as traditional marriage, he said.

In other words, the coded message was that same sex marriage (and gays in general) represent corruption.

Whenever it comes down to the wire, I think most Canadians reject this sort of thinking, and will reject the Conservatives.

On edit - Chimo and I are talking about the same event. You can see how Harper makes this implicit connection.

[Spazito]

34. Yep, I saw a clip of that speech and it was very clear

he was making that connection. As usual, his political instincts were shown to be incredibly poor and he comes across as cocky, immature and in favour of discrimination.

[David__77]

35. Unless there's an election soon, who cares?

I don't think Canadians will go in for the ultra-right. They would sooner give mroe power to the NDP in a center-left coalition.

[Minstrel Boy]

36. There could be, since it's a minority government.

I'd say it's pretty certain now there'll be an election this year.

And you're correct, Canadians wouldn't be voting for the right. But enough may be voting against the Liberals.

[achtung_circus]

40. I wouldn't mind

a minority Liberal with the NDP holding huge balance of power or the reverse- an NDP minority. The NDP needs to govern carefully, as they will eventually. The provincial NDP experience in BC and Ontario has been, to put it diplomatically, mixed.

People should pay attention, though, to the Saskatchewan example. The NDP cleaning up the mess left by too many years of Grant Devine's Conservatives.

[Sugarbleus]

39. One of my BIGGEST fears has been that this new wave of

conservatism will sweep the world. Stirring in Canada, stirrings in Europe.... Mullahs in the mid east... Holy Cow! I can't even allow myself to visualize our tomorrows if this trend continues..

My anxiety knows no bounds :scared:

[blueblitzkrieg]

41. Canadians are too smart for this....

right? :scared:

[kypper]

42. I call bullshit

That poll assumes people will switch to the NDP over the Liberals, which just ain't gonna happen. The NDP was projected to have a huge increase last election too, and instead people voted Liberal to keep Harper out.
The same will happen.

What the Conservatives and the media can't seem to get is EVERYBODY knew about the sponsorship scandal last election and EVERYBODY knows it happens all the time. Harper would be no different.

[NinetySix]

43. Is there a bright side?

Maybe....

If another election is called, at least Sheila Copps will have a good chance to take down Tony Valeri and get her old riding back; then if the Conservatives take it with a minority or slim majority, she could run for the leadership again. If it's gonna be a Liberal government insead of the NDP (as it appears through the foreseeable future), I'd love to see her at the helm. Screw Martin. Buh-bye.

[Wat_Tyler]

47. Latest Ipsos from the CTV news - Lib 27, Con 30, NDP 19.

NDP up four, Liberal down seven, CPC unchanged. Looking good for the left.

[Spazito]

49. That poll looks more realistic than the OP one, imo

if Canadians wanted to vote Conservative they would have done so in the last election and they did not. Those that are very angry with the Liberals would more naturally gravitate to the NDP more than the Cons.

[Wat_Tyler]

50. The key figure is that the CPC vote has not changed.

They should not count their chickens, not quite yet.

[sonicx]

51. a Conservative minority government...

who would they form a coalition with?