STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 14 March

[ozymandius]

Monday March 14, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 312 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 91 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 147 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1205
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 11, 2005

Dow... 10,774.36 -77.15 (-0.71%)
Nasdaq... 2,041.60 -18.12 (-0.88%)
S&P 500... 1,200.08 -9.17 (-0.76%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.54% +0.08 (+1.70%)
Gold future... 446.80 +3.40 (+0.76%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 81.79 Change +0.37 (+0.45%)

Forex - Dollar recoups some losses but poised for further weakness

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=1110802494-30410f08-22866

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar recouped some losses against the euro and the yen after skidding lower last week on disappointing US trade deficit data

The dollar was on the backfoot last week as concerns about the US twin deficits combined with high oil prices and worries that leading central banks would diversify their assets away from the US currency

Despite today's mild recovery, analysts said last week's dominant trading factors are likely to reign again this week and most expect the US currency to come under renewed pressure as the market focus remains squarely on the US' structural problems with regard to its twin deficits

Monthly US Treasury capital flows data tomorrow are expected to show portfolio inflows in January shrank again, raising concerns about the financing of the US's current account deficit

"The benchmark that the market will be assessing the TIC data will be Friday's trade deficit of 58 bln usd and were portfolio flows to fall short of this number, we believe that the dollar is likely to come under renewed pressure and see the euro make a break towards 1.35 usd," said Kamal Sharma, currency strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein

...more...

China rejects complaints on currency

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D88QL4881.htm?campaign_id=apn_home_down

MAR. 14 3:58 A.M. ET China's premier on Monday rejected pressure for an immediate increase in the value of its tightly controlled currency, while promising to do more to help the rural poor and small investors in its scandal-plagued stock markets.

Premier Wen Jiabao said Beijing is making progress in foreign exchange reforms and said more changes might come unexpectedly.

"Some people strongly demand that we raise the yuan's value but they haven't given much thought to what sort of problems would ensue. This is very irresponsible," Wen said at a news conference.

Wen said planners face myriad problems as they try to keep China's economy growing at a rapid but sustainable pace while grappling with a raft of potentially destabilizing problems: widespread poverty in the countryside, unemployment, inadequate social welfare programs and ailing financial markets.

"The situation now is like going upstream. If we don't forge ahead we will fall back," Wen said at the news conference, held after the close of the annual session of China's ceremonial legislature.

...more...

Great 'toon, Ozy! :D

No Reports due today.

Have a great day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

6. Dollar stronger in early New York trade

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38425.3680845949-833115796&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The dollar rose against both the euro and yen early Monday, rebounding from falls suffered in Asia earlier on news of an upward revision in Japanese gross domestic product data. Overnight the yen at first strengthened on a revision of Japan's GDP data to show 0.1 percent growth in the July-September quarter, contrasting with an estimated 0.1 percent fall in a prior report. But observers later concluded that the supposed improvement rested largely on inventories revisions and government spending. The dollar traded at 104.74 yen, up 0.6 percent. The euro was quoted at $1.3375, down 0.7 percent, after being knocked lower in cross-trading activity.

wish that someone would examine our (US) statistical reports so closely :eyes:

[UpInArms]

2. Bottom Dollar

The greenback's fall is stoking fears of a global crisis. Behind the slide: a world economy wildly out of balance

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7170226/site/newsweek/

March 21 issue - There's been plenty of good news of late about the U.S. economy, so let's start with that: employment is expanding (2.4 million new payroll jobs in the last year); inflation remains low (less than a 2 percent rate in the past quarter); the stock market is higher (up 11 percent on the Dow from its November low), and business investment is impressive (rising at a 14 percent rate in late 2004). Indeed, the recent news has been so good—a major exception being $50-a-barrel oil—that we're hearing again of the "Goldilocks" economy, which grows fast enough to increase jobs and slow enough to muffle inflation. But beyond all the upbeat indicators lurks a potentially frightening problem that unsettles even the wisest and most seasoned economic observers. It's not government budget deficits, a possible housing bubble or even $2-a-gallon gasoline. It's the dollar.

If you've been following closely, you know that the dollar has been declining steadily against many foreign currencies. From recent highs—reached in mid-2001 or early 2002—the dollar has dropped 38 percent against the euro, 23 percent against the yen and 25 percent against the Canadian dollar. And most economists expect the slide to continue. By the year-end, the euro may rise to $1.45 from $1.34 and the yen to 97 from 104 (that's 97 yen to the dollar), says economist Nariman Behravesh of Global Insight. But, of course, you probably haven't been following closely. For most Americans, the subject of the dollar—its value on foreign-exchange markets—is a yawner. A depreciating dollar makes foreign vacations more expensive, puts pressure on the prices of imported cars and shoes and (the good part) improves the global competitiveness of U.S. manufacturers. Normally, these matters aren't high on our "must know" list. But now is not normal.

...lots more......

[jswordy]

19. Great article!

America's huge and expanding trade deficits have served as a narcotic for the rest of the world. As with all narcotics, resulting highs have been artificial and, to some extent, delusional to both the dealer and the addicts. The question now is whether everyone can go straight, before the addiction becomes self-destructive.

Very doubtful. Continuing the analogy, an addict usually does not go straight until he or she has fallen as far as they can go -- hit bottom. That's not a pretty picture for the dollar.

[UpInArms]

3. The Fed sees bubbles -- and keeps them secret

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P108996.asp

Our Fed chairman has argued (most recently last October, in a speech to America’s Community Bankers Annual Convention) that for a variety of reasons, real estate cannot experience a bubble. Yet anyone with a pulse can see wild speculation taking place all around them.

At the height of the stock-market bubble in the first quarter of 2000, it was becoming progressively more difficult for me to adequately describe (in my daily column) the market action. So, in an attempt to capture the mood of the day, I began to share stories of insane behavior that were being e-mailed to me by regular readers. I dubbed this series "The Mania Chronicles," and you'll find excerpts from it in Chapter 3 of the Archives section of my Web site. (Readers of the Contrarian Chronicles can access the site for the next week by using the password/username: mania/mania.)

The kind of maniacal behavior that we saw then toward stocks and which we are seeing now in real estate tends to come at the end of a speculative mania. It is almost always coincident with rising supply, which helps to satiate the inflated demand.

...more...

[UpInArms]

4. AIG's Greenberg may exit as CEO: report

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B6460E8F6%2DC055%2D4559%2D8D07%2D6010E39A5003%7D&siteid=mktw

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Maurice "Hank" Greenberg may step down as early as this week as chief executive of insurer American International Group, the Wall Street Journal said Monday.

The board of AIG (AIG: news, chart, profile) is concerned about the company's rising number of regulatory inquiries, the Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

AIG directors on Sunday worked to hammer out terms of his departure, the report said. Greenberg may stay on as chairman.

The board is close to selecting Martin Sullivan, a co-chief operating officer and vice chairman, to replace the 79-year-old Greenberg as CEO, the report added.

"We believe the possibility of a sudden departure of Mr. Greenberg as opposed to an orderly transition process would likely weigh" on AIG's shares in the near term, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote Monday.

...more...

Isn't it interesting that a "sudden departure" would "weigh" on the stock price, but the corruption of this individual and his "family" are no big deal?

[UpInArms]

5. Benchmark Treasury yields at highest since last July

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38425.3548568634-833115135&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Benchmark Treasury notes began the week under selling pressure, having just wrapped up the biggest losing week since May. Price declines Monday pushed the yield on the 10-year note to 4.56 percent or the highest since last July, amid expectations that economic reports due this week will argue for a faster growing economy, continued Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes and possibly, increased inflation risks. The 10-year note was last trading down 4/32 at 95 19/32. The 2-year note was unchanged at 99 11/32, yielding 3.71 percent.

[UpInArms]

10. U.S. Treasury repeats: No plan to bring back 30-year

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38425.3875929977-833117564&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. Treasury has no plans to bring back the 30-year bond, a top U.S. Treasury official reiterated Monday. Tim Bitsberger, assistant Treasury secretary for financial markets, spoke to the Institute of International Bankers' annual Washington conference. The 30-year bond was eliminated by Bitsberger's predecessor, Peter Fisher, in October 2001, when the government was still forecasting persistent surpluses, instead of the deficits currently seen. The longest Treasury now sold is a 20-year inflation-protected bond. France recently introduced a 50-year bond to help finance its retirement system.

[ozymandius]

21. FYI: Bitsberger's predecessor, Peter Fisher

This is Fisher the Fixer. He was Greenscam's stock market manipulator and all-around PPT point guy.

[ozymandius]

7. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood - dovetails nicely with UIA's post #3

THE DOW REPORT
A Brief Look at the Housing Sector

Tim W. Wood on FinancialSense.comToday we are going to look at a couple of different indexes related to Housing. To begin with, I have a weekly chart of the Dow Jones Home Construction Index. This index includes constructors of residential homes, including manufacturers of mobile and prefabricated homes intended for use in one place.

The first indicator in the upper window is the stochastic oscillator. When this indicator is below its lower boundary line it tells us that the underlying index is oversold. When these oversold conditions form a weekly swing low and the stochastic turns up it generally marks a turning point and higher prices are seen. By contrast, when this indicator is above its upper boundary line it is telling us that the underlying index is overbought. When this overbought condition occurs and price forms a swing high accompanied by a down turn in the stochastic, lower prices can be expected. We now have a downturn of the stochastic oscillator, but we have not formed a swing high in price. Given the current price structure, a swing high will form next week IF price holds above this week’s high AND if this week’s low is violated.

-cut-

So, to summarize the picture here, we have the intermediate term trend that is positive, but overbought and due for a turn. But, until we see a weekly swing high form, the trend remains positive. When we look at the daily chart we are beginning to see some shorter term negativity. The rising trend line from October has been violated. If this is followed by a break below the February low then we should have short-term confirmation of a top of a least intermediate degree. Once this intermediate term decline begins we will then have to monitor it for signs of continued weakness or a possible reversal.

more...

http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

8. OfficeMax Q4 income falls 90 percent

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB1AD1A9B%2D0588%2D428A%2DA50F%2DF03F370F0123%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- OfficeMax Inc.'s quarterly income plunged 90 percent due to operating losses and charges stemming from paper and timberland assets it has since sold, the nation's third-largest office products retailer said Monday.

<snip>

The company reported a loss per share despite having net income because it paid $2.1 million in preferred dividend. As a result, the net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.4 million.

<snip>

Adjusting for all special items in both years' periods, the company would have reported a net loss of $24.2 million, or 30 cents a share, against net income of $6.9 million, or 5 cents a share, in the fourth quarter of 2003.

...more...

Wow! Paying a $2.1 million in preferred dividend with $24.2 million in losses? Can someone explain that one to me?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

13. I wonder how all of the office supply companies did last quarter?....

If they all are losing money, then we will know for a fact that their corporate and small business clients are also having a hard time.

[UpInArms]

9. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. Still shaping up to be a higher open for the cash market as a positive bias remains intact... Falling crude oil prices ($54.05/bbl -$0.38) ahead of this week's OPEC meeting (Mar. 16) have also contributed to an improving sentiment after rising commodity prices last week incited inflation worries

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. Futures trade ticks a bit higher, still indicating an upbeat open for the indices...While there have been no economic releases for investors to sift through this morning, the market's enthusiasm to bid stocks higher in pre-market trading has so far been supported by the slew of upbeat company-specific news items

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a slightly higher open for the cash market as investors weigh fresh M&A activity and top management changes against the recent inflation worries and rate hike fears that pressured stocks last week... IBM has agreed to acquire Ascential Software (ASCL) for $1.1 bln in cash while Altria (MO) plans to buy Indonesian tobacco company PT HM Sampoerna for $5.2 bln... Walt Disney (DIS) has named a new CEO while reports suggest that AIG's CEO will step down

ino.com

The June NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline, which marked a key reversal down. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends last week's decline, a test of January's low crossing at 1496.50 is the next downside target. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 1564.50 are needed to open the door for a possible test of February's high crossing at 1574.50. The June NASDAQ 100 was up 1.00 pt. at 1519.50 as of 5:55 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The June S&P 500 index was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates above this year's uptrend line crossing near 1204.50. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the aforementioned uptrend line would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline during March. The June S&P 500 Index was up 1.00 pts. at 1206.40 as of 5:58 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

11. 9:46 markets are open

Dow 10,790.84 +16.48 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,043.92 +2.32 (+0.11%)
S&P 500 1,202.42 +2.34 (+0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.559 +0.24 (+0.53%)

NYSE Volume 82,540,000
Nasdaq Volume 143,458,000

adding blather on edit:

9:40AM: Stocks rebound from last week's slump and open modestly to the upside... Investors have so far embraced new M&A deals and corporate executive changes as grounds to counter broad-based selling last week that pushed the major indices back into negative territory for the year... Making the biggest waves this morning has been Walt Disney's (DIS 27.97 +0.38) decision to finally name a successor to CEO Michael Eisner by appointing current President and COO Robert Iger...

While DIS shares remain relatively flat for the year, the stock has rebounded 25% from its mid-August lows (around $21/share) and, including this morning's 1.4% surge, have inched above the unchanged mark for the year...

[MARALE]

12. Oil eases on Saudi call

http://money.cnn.com/2005/03/14/markets/oil.reut/index.htm

"Saudi Arabia is of the opinion that OPEC's production ceiling should be adjusted upwards by 500,000 bpd during the forthcoming ministerial meeting," Naimi said in a statement.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter, expected to raise oil output again later in the year to meet global demand growth, Naimi said.

...

But some members such as Iran, Qatar, Venezuela, Algeria and Indonesia have come out in favor of keeping production steady for the time being.

Some do not favor lifting output, despite prices near October's all-time record above $55 for U.S. crude.

[MARALE]

14. Strength should show in flood of data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B34B56284%2DC0BB%2D4BFA%2DBD77%2D4DD15E49F585%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

February retail sales should provide the week's top economic headlines, although a surprise in one of the other indicators could roil markets. The bond and currency markets are particularly skittish.

"Retail sales should be pretty solid," Hoffman said. Chain stores reported surprisingly strong sales in February, which some analysts have attributed to bigger than normal tax refunds. High gasoline prices also feed directly into retail sales, although they could steal some disposable income that could have been spent elsewhere.

...

The industrial sector is also doing OK. Industrial production is forecast to rise 0.4 percent in February, despite fewer hours worked. The Fed will release the February output data on Wednesday at 9:15 a.m.

...

"The consumer is alive and well," Hoffman said.

There is a lot of spin in this article

[UpInArms]

15. 11:39 EST update and blather (paint drying)

Dow 10,783.67 +9.31 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,043.09 +1.49 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,202.61 +2.53 (+0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 4.542 +0.07 (+0.15%)

NYSE Volume 533,087,000
Nasdaq Volume 665,207,000

11:30AM: Little changed since the last update as stocks continue to trade sideways...On the Dow, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 20.19 +0.33) has paced the way to the upside after announcing innovations in its server networking and storage technologies while United Technologies (UTX 102.90 +1.54) has extended gains after renewing its $3.0 bln buyback program last week... Minimizing gains, however, has been American International Group (AIG 63.87 -0.84)...

AIG has been downgraded at Raymond James due to uncertainty related to the upcoming departure of current CEO Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, amid worries over a increasing number of regulatory inquiries... Caterpillar (CAT 97.11 -1.89) has also lost ground as margin concerns have prompted Legg Mason to lower its rating on the stock...NYSE Adv/Dec 1687/1387, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1551/1331

11:00AM: Major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges as falling oil prices somewhat curb inflation fears... Modest selling pressure in crude oil prices ($53.54/bbl -$0.89) this morning has so far improved sentiment enough for investors to keep last week's inflationary pressures on the back burner and paved a clearer path to more effectively embrace today's uplifting company-specific news... While Saudi Arabia has recently called for OPEC members to raise output quotas, it appears most traders believe OPEC will leave quotas unchanged at this Wednesday's meeting in Iran... NYSE Adv/Dec 1720/1301, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1597/1223

10:30AM: More of the same, as the major averages continue to cling to modest gains..

[UpInArms]

16. U.S. drafting new bank secrecy rules

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B82561913%2D2A0D%2D4D3D%2DB760%2D06ED352EAAA3%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. regulators are drafting new guidelines for banks to comply with a law to stop money laundering, a Federal Reserve governor said Monday.

The Federal Reserve and others are developing "more detailed uniform examination guidelines and procedures," Fed Gov. Susan Schmidt Bies said in remarks prepared for delivery to a banking conference.

Bies did not talk about monetary policy in her prepared remarks.

Bies's remarks concern the Bank Secrecy Act, which directs banks to file reports about suspicious activities by customers. Some banks, she said, are concerned that failing to file reports required by the law could result in a criminal prosecution. Some are also avoiding customers who present perceived heightened risks, she said.

...more...

Wonder if those laws that are already on the books are much different? They certainly didn't stop those criminals at Riggs, but then there were those very interesting political connections.

[UpInArms]

17. gotta love this WH press release from Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=7892882

US Treasury keeps up Social Security change drumbeat

WASHINGTON, March 14 (Reuters) - Altering the U.S. Social Security government retirement program is crucial to keeping tax rates low and to prevent any sudden cutback in government programs, a Treasury Department official said on Monday.

"If we don't act now to fix it, the only options will be drastically higher taxes, massive new borrowing, or sudden and severe cuts in Social Security benefits or other government programs," Assistant Treasury Secretary for Financial Markets Tim Bitsberger said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Institute of International Bankers.

Regarding Bush's plan for letting workers use a third of the taxes paid in their names to fund the retirement program to invest in stocks and bonds, Bitsberger listed this as fourth among the president's "basic principles" for Social Security overhaul.

The private accounts plan, which administration officials have emphasized as central to Bush's proposal, has encountered resistance from the public and lawmakers of both political parties.

...more...

I would have posted it in LBN, but it is transparently propaganda. :puke:

here's an opinion piece that attempts to get at least part of it right:

http://www.philly.com/mld/dailynews/news/opinion/11131143.htm

Social Security: Follow the money

excerpt:

We can safely dismiss the explanations being put forward by the White House because - like the administration's arguments in 2002 for going to war in Iraq - the explanations keep shifting as more facts are revealed.

First, the administration alleged that its Social Security proposal was necessary because the system was facing a "crisis." But then the Social Security trustees projected that the system would remain solvent until 2043 - which is more financially-secure than almost any other retirement plan in America.

So the administration began arguing that its proposal was necessary to fix the long-term challenges. But a senior Bush aide recently admitted to the Los Angeles Times that Bush's solution, "individual accounts, would do nothing to solve the system's long-term financial problems."

<snip>

At a tactical level, Bush's proposal is a brazen attempt to pay off his largest contributors. Take a look at Bush's top contributors on the non-partisan Web site www.opensecrets.org.

...more...

on edit: here's a direct link to Dimson's top donors:

http://www.opensecrets.org/presidential/contrib.asp?id=N00008072&cycle=2004

[UpInArms]

26. Judge denies motion to dismiss BofA fund trading case - criminal activity

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38425.6044696759-833129878&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- A New York judge on Monday denied a motion to dismiss charges against a former Bank of America Corp. (BAC) broker that he allegedly facilitated late trading of mutual funds, according to published reports. The case against the former BofA broker, Theodore Sihpol, is set to begin April 26, according to Dow Jones Newswires. In April 2004 Sihpol pleaded not guilty to 40 counts of fraud, grand larceny and other charges for allegedly helping hedge fund Canary Capital Partners market time mutual fund shares of Nations Funds Trust, the mutual fund unit of Bank of America. Shares of Bank of America last lost 0.9 percent to $45.37.

More reasons to invest your Social Security funds in the stock casino market family games :eyes:

[UpInArms]

29. investing at the "craps table"

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38425.6291832523-833130602&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

ICI Pres. says time for Social Security debate is now

BOSTON (MarketWatch) - Investment Company Institute President Paul Schott Stevens Monday said the time for a debate about Social Security - and retirement security in general - is now. "While the Institute is not advocating the establishment of personal retirement accounts, we are determined to respond to the argument that encouraging Americans to save and invest is like luring them to a craps table," Stevens said in remarks prepared for a conference in California. "Rhetoric like that simply misses the mark." ICI is the main trade association for the $8 trillion U.S. mutual fund industry.

awwww - did somebody get their itty bitty feelers hurt?

[MARALE]

18. Stock Market Update

http://www.briefing.com/Silver/InDepth/StockMarketUpdate.htm

12:30 ET Dow +19, Nasdaq +4, S&P +3.50

Major indices still trade in positive territory but market internals cling to a modestly bullish bias... Advancers on the NYSE hold a slim 16 to 15 advantage over decliners while advancing issues on the Nasdaq hold a 15 to 14 edge over declining issues... The ratio of up to down volume also holds a similarly lackluster sense of conviction on the part of buyers at both the Big Board and the Composite, as total volume remains below average levels... While the major averages have all eked out modest gains on the day, only the Dow has inched back into positive territory for the year, while the S&P and Nasdaq are still down 0.7% and 5.9%, respectively, in 2005... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1641/1526. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1517/1462.


12:00 ET Dow +18, Nasdaq +2, S&P +3.01

Stocks continue to hold their own and sport modest gains midday amid new M&A deals, CEO changes and lower oil prices... Overall sentiment has improved after IBM (IBM 91.88 +0.37) agreed to acquire Ascential Software (ASCL 18.31 +2.61) for $1.1 bln and Altria (MO 65.79 +0.65) announced a $5.2 bln bid for Indonesian tobacco firm PT HM Sampoerna... News that Walt Disney (DIS 27.97 +0.38) has finally named a successor to CEO Michael Eisner has also underpinned a modestly positive tone and helped offset uncertainty surrounding AIG's efforts to do likewise... AIG (63.68 -1.03) has said that CEO Maurice "Hank" Greenberg will step down as early as this week... Meanwhile, a JP Morgan upgrade on Williams Companies (WMB 18.32 +0.43) has provided a boost to the Utility sector while Transportation has been lifted by shares of Delta Air Lines (DAL 4.61 +0.31), which announced a flurry of new low sales fares... Positive comments out of Piper Jaffray regarding improving margins at Genzyme (GENZ 56.88 +1.28) have boosted Biotech while widespread interest in Brokerage stocks has helped Financial and gains in Software have offset modest losses in Disk Drive... Energy, however, has lost ground amid falling oil prices ($54.05/bbl -$0.38)... The commodity remains under modest pressure as most commodities traders believe OPEC will leave quotas unchanged at this Wednesday's meeting in Iran... Homebuilding has also succumbed to selling pressure after bond yields surged last week while strength in the dollar against major currencies has weakened the Materials sector... Without any economic data to push bonds aggressively in either direction, Treasurys have been relatively quiet all morning, as the 10-year note has only climbed 1 tick to yield 4.53%... ..DJTA +0.4%. ..DJUA +1.3%. ..SOX +0.2%. ..DOT -1.2%. ..XOI -0.2%. ..BTK +0.7%. ..Nasdaq 100 +0.2%. ..S&P Midcap 400 +0.6%. ..Russell 2000 +0.2%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1635/1502. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1455/1488.

[ozymandius]

20. 1:09 and very anemic

Dow 10,777.69 +3.33 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,041.64 +0.04 (+0.00%)
S&P 500 1,202.02 +1.94 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 45.42 +0.07 (+0.15%)

1:00PM: Indices remain on a tight leash by today's participants as they haven't gone anywhere too freely... Still hanging over investors' heads appears to be concerns over higher interest rates, which surged last week amid renewed inflationary pressures, as commodity prices hit record highs and the Jan. trade deficit recorded its second largest reading ever...

[UpInArms]

22. Yellen's yelling

1:30pm 03/14/05 YELLEN: BANKS IN SOLID POSITION TO DEAL WITH CHALLENGES

1:30pm 03/14/05 YELLEN: CA BANKS FACE RISK IN REAL ESTATE CONCENTRATION

1:30pm 03/14/05 FED'S YELLEN SAYS ECONOMY ON FIRMER FOOTING

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38425.5627154051-833128471&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- After stumbling last spring, the U.S. economy is on "firmer footing," said San Francisco Fed president Janet Yellen. "A broad range of economic data suggests that real GDP is growing noticeably above trend," which is around 3.25 percent to 3.5 percent real GDP growth, Yellen said in remarks prepared for delivery to a banking convention in Hawaii. Yellen said banks in the western United States face risks from their large concentration in commercial real estate lending. But Yellen said industry conditions in many respects are stronger now than they've ever been. These conditions and risk management advances "put the industry overall in a solid position to deal with any challenges that may arise."

sounds like California might be having a bit of trouble ... hmmmm ... who would've guessed?

[TrogL]

23. Loonie Watch

http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

Detailed analysis (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDT4&v=s)


2005-02-14 Monday, February 14 0.810241 USD
2005-02-15 Tuesday, February 15 0.810636 USD
2005-02-16 Wednesday, February 16 0.805088 USD
2005-02-17 Thursday, February 17 0.812348 USD
2005-02-18 Friday, February 18 0.813405 USD
2005-02-22 Tuesday, February 22 0.812942 USD
2005-02-23 Wednesday, February 23 0.806322 USD
2005-02-24 Thursday, February 24 0.804182 USD
2005-02-25 Friday, February 25 0.805997 USD
2005-02-28 Monday, February 28 0.813339 USD
2005-03-01 Tuesday, March 1 0.804829 USD
2005-03-02 Wednesday, March 2 0.806777 USD
2005-03-03 Thursday, March 3 0.802375 USD
2005-03-04 Friday, March 4 0.811425 USD
2005-03-07 Monday, March 7 0.813008 USD
2005-03-08 Tuesday, March 8 0.822166 USD
2005-03-09 Wednesday, March 9 0.828912 USD
2005-03-10 Thursday, March 10 0.829876 USD
2005-03-11 Friday, March 11 0.830496 USD
2005-03-14 Monday, March 14 0.827335 USD




Loonie appears to be back on its way up, probably on a 'no news is good news scenario' or because of the expected chaos at this week's Conservative/Alliance/CRAP/Reform/whatever-they're-calling-themselves-this-week conference (March 17-19th).

[UpInArms]

24. 2:20 EST numbers and blather (reddish paint drying)

Dow 10,766.26 -8.10 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,039.75 -1.85 (-0.09%)
S&P 500 1,200.85 +0.77 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.524 -0.11 (-0.24%)

NYSE Volume 946,360,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,142,214,000

2:00PM: More of the same for stocks as the market continues to trade with a tinge of caution... Meanwhile, of the 15 S&P 500 companies reporting quarterly results this week, OfficeMax (OMX 34.48 +0.32) has provided investors with the only notable report today... However, while Q4 earnings plummeted 90% on weak holiday sales, investors appear to have disregarded their results, focusing more on a statement from one of its rivals... Shares of Office Depot (ODP 20.61 +1.42) have surged after naming former AutoZone (AZO 87.43 -10.87) CEO Steve Odland as Chairman and CEO...

Since OMX is currently operating without a CEO and Odland has a history of making acquisitions, OMX has arguably found buying interest amid increased speculation that OMX may be sold...NYSE Adv/Dec 1494/1745, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1450/1606

1:30PM: Equities now trade in split fashion as oil prices hit session highs... Crude oil futures ($54.85/bbl +$0.42) have recently broken through an intraday range and now trade closer to $55/bbl amid uncertainty ahead of Wednesday's OPEC meeting... While the rebound in the commodity has not been enormous, it has been more than enough of a negative mechanism to sway sentiment in a very thinly traded market adhering to a limited number of upside catalysts...NYSE Adv/Dec 1635/1594, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1512/1507

1:00PM: Indices remain on a tight leash by today's participants as they haven't gone anywhere too freely... Still hanging over investors' heads appears to be concerns over higher interest rates, which surged last week amid renewed inflationary pressures, as commodity prices hit record highs and the Jan. trade deficit recorded its second largest reading ever...

[UpInArms]

30. 3:37 EST numbers and blather (all good again)

Dow 10,800.24 +25.88 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,048.49 +6.89 (+0.34%)
S&P 500 1,205.43 +5.35 (+0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.516 -0.19 (-0.42%)

NYSE Volume 1,228,841,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,462,023,000

3:30PM: Market improves its stance some, lifting modestly above the unchanged mark, as bond yields fall to their lowest levels of the session... Treasurys have inched higher heading into the close, pushing yields on the 10-year note (+8/32) slightly lower to 4.51%... However, since yields still linger above 4.5%, gains in equities have been modest at best...

With regards to tomorrow, investors can expect bonds to perhaps play a more influential role with the release of Feb Retail Sales (consensus +0.6%), Retail Sales ex-auto (consensus +0.8%) and the Mar. NY Empire State Index (consensus 19.9) at 8:30 ET... Also before the bell, investors will have earnings reports from three S&P components (i.e. ABS, KG and LEH) while the Commerce Dept. will release Jan Business Inventories (consensus +0.9%) at 10:00 ET...NYSE Adv/Dec 1587/1709, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1452/1659

3:00PM: Stocks still mired in relatively tight trading ranges as market breadth now holds a more negative tone... Bucking the bearish bias, however, has been Biotech... Genzyme Corp. (GENZ 57.21 +1.61) has paced the way higher after Piper Jafffray cited recent weakness in the sector and a more attractive valuation amid strong revenues, EPS growth and improving margins... Another notable Biotech stock trading higher, albeit not a component of the AMEX Biotechnology Index (BTK+0.3%), has been Sepracor (SEPR 60.81 +0.92), after the FDA approved its Xopenex product for use with asthma inhalers... NYSE Adv/Dec 1494/1765, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1422/1663

[UpInArms]

25. here's a puzzle - semiconductor industry cutting jobs in China?

Axt Inc Website http://cbs.marketwatch.com/enf/profilecompanies.asp?link=http://www.axt.com
4281 Technology Drive
Fremont CALIFORNIA 94538

AXT, Inc.. The Group's principal activities are to design, develop, manufacture and distribute compound semiconductor substrates. These semiconductor substrates comprises of gallium arsenide (GaAs), indium phosphide (InP) and germanium (Ge). The Group's substrate products are used primarily in fiber optic communications, wireless communications and lighting display applications. The major customers for substrates include United Epitaxy Company, Motorola, Agilent Technologies, Samsung, EMCORE, Kopin, IQE and Sumika. On 27-Sep-2003, the Group discontinued its opto-electronics business

2:27pm 03/14/05 AXT INC CUTTING BEJING MANUFACTURING OPS STAFF BY 15%

2:27pm 03/14/05 AXT INC TO TAKE $100K CHARGE FOR STAFF CUTS IN Q1

2:27pm 03/14/05 AXT INC. SEES ANNUAL SAVINGS OF $300K FROM CUTS

2:27pm 03/14/05 AXT INC. EXPECTS TO COMPLETE STAFF CUTS THIS MONTH

[RawMaterials]

27. Savings: Lots of Talk, but Few Dollars

WASHINGTON

THERE are moments when a particular word acquires such a compelling grip on the political imagination that it can be used as cover for all kinds of agendas.

The big word is not "bust" or "bankrupt," even though President Bush utters them often as he barnstorms the country to whip up a sense of crisis about Social Security. The word that is really catching on in Washington is "savings." Democrats say that Mr. Bush has greatly depleted national savings with his tax cuts and soaring fiscal deficits. Mr. Bush invokes the need for savings to justify more tax incentives as well as his plan to overhaul Social Security.

Without a doubt, the dearth of savings poses serious concerns. Economic growth requires investment, and investment requires savings. Because Americans consume far more than they produce, the country is now borrowing more than $600 billion a year from foreigners - almost 6 percent of the gross domestic product. Put another way, the United States is tapping the savings of almost every other part of the world - including relatively poor countries. At some point, those bills will come due and constrain growth for many years.


snip...

But if the problem is clear, the proposed solutions are not.

Start with President Bush's plan to overhaul Social Security by letting workers divert some of their payroll taxes to personal retirement accounts. Treasury Secretary John W. Snow says in his stump speech that the accounts would not only enable younger workers to "build a nest egg," but would also help the nation "create a larger pool of savings."

But at least for the next few decades, that last assertion would not be true. For every dollar a person contributed to his nest egg, the government would reduce at least a dollar in traditional Social Security benefits. At best, savings would simply be transferred from government to individual accounts.

More likely, the government would have to borrow trillions of dollars over the next several decades to pay full benefits to retirees who earned them under today's system.

"Moving to a forced savings account technically does not materially affect net national savings," Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said last month. "It merely moves savings from the government account to a private account." Mr. Greenspan is a supporter of personal accounts.

more..





http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/13/business/yourmoney/13view.html?

[RawMaterials]

28. China May Surprise on Currency - Premier

BEIJING (Reuters) - China could spring a surprise on financial markets in deciding when and how it reforms the yuan, Premier Wen Jiabao said on Monday in comments seen as warning speculators trying to guess what the country might do.

"Our goal has been to let market supply and demand determine the exchange rate," Wen told a news briefing at the close of the annual session of parliament.
We are carrying out such work now, and as for the timing and what measures will be adopted, this could be unexpected."

China's policy, keeping the yuan pegged in a narrow range near 8.28 to the dollar, has drawn criticism from trade partners such as the United States, which say the level is too low and gives Chinese exports an unfair price advantage.

"The attitude by Beijing is they don't want to reward speculators," Claudio Piron, an Asian forex strategist with JP Morgan in Singapore, said of Wen's remarks.

"The only thing is, this statement itself is kind of going to bring speculators back into the market, so they've kind of contradicted themselves," Piron said.

snip..

He also reiterated his view that economic cooling measures in place since mid-2003 had scored initial results, but warned about a possible rebound in investment.

Data issued on Monday showed January-February retail sales were 13.6 percent higher than a year earlier, slightly less than expected but maintaining a trend of rapid growth in consumer demand seen since early 2004.

Policy makers have sought to boost the role of consumption in an economy that some say relies too much on fickle investment.

"If you look at the trend, consumption has been improving, and I figure that probably will continue in the coming year," said Yiping Huang, an economist with Citigroup in Hong Kong.

In his report, Wen said China was aiming for economic growth of 8 percent and inflation of 4 percent this year, and pledged to keep in place measures aimed at curbing heated credit and investment growth.

Such policies include bans on some new projects in industries such as steel and property, tougher restrictions on converting land for industrial use, and the country's first interest rate increase in nine years last October.


http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?jsessionid=HUYO52ZL1LVI2CRBAE0CFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=7888116

[RawMaterials]

31. Closing Numbers and Blather

Dow 10804.51 +30.15 (+0.28%)
Nasdaq 2051.04 +9.44 (+0.46%)
S&P 500 1206.83 +6.75 (+0.56%)
10-Yr Bond 4.516% -0.19

NYSE Volume 1,436,860,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,686,319,000




Close: Late-day buying, prompted by breaking biotech news and falling bond yields, coupled with new M&A deals and key CEO changes, were enough to counter higher oil prices... Upbeat news in Biotech (+4.9%), during a day that saw few market-moving catalysts, provided a strong leg of buying support heading into the close as market breadth turned modestly bullish...

The Biotech industry, which earlier held modest gains amid upbeat remarks about Genzyme Corp. (GENZ 57.80 +2.20) regarding recent weakness in the sector, stronger EPS growth and improving margins, soared following an interim analysis of Phase III trials from Genentech (DNA 54.83 +10.75)... Confirmation that DNA's Avastin drug, in combination with chemotherapy, aids in lung cancer survival was exactly what the doctor ordered to improve sentiment enough to return sellers to the sidelines and help the Dow climb back into positive territory for the year... While Treasurys were relatively unchanged most of the day, with yields above 4.5% contributing to the overall cautious sentiment, bonds attempted to rally amid uncertainty ahead of event risks tied to upcoming economic data...

The benchmark 10-year note closed up 8 ticks to yield 4.5%, somewhat offsetting interest-rate worries that loomed last week when bonds got hammered and recorded their worst weekly sell-off in 10-months...Pressuring equities most of the day, however, were rising crude oil prices ($54.95/bbl +$0.52) amid uncertainty of OPEC raising output quotas at this Wednesday's meeting in Iran...

Meanwhile, IBM (IBM 91.89 +0.38) agreed to acquire Ascential Software (ASCL 18.29 +2.59) for $1.1 bln while Altria Group (MO 65.30 +0.16) expanded its presence into the world's fifth largest cigarette market with a $5.2 bln bid for Indonesian tobacco firm PT HM Sampoerna... Walt Disney (DIS 28.00 +0.41) also made headlines when it named current President and COO Robert Iger as the successor to CEO Michael Eisner while AIG (AIG) announced that CEO Maurice "Hank" Greenberg could resign as early as this week... Fueled by both resurgence in M&A and new CEO appointments was OfficeMax (OMX 34.47 +0.31)... While OMX - the only notable earnings report today - handily missed Q4 expectations due to weak holiday sales, the market arguably ignored their disappointing results in favor of a statement from rival Office Depot (ODP 20.76 +1.57)...

ODP appointed former AutoZone (AZO 85.79 -12.51) CEO Steve Odland as Chairman and CEO, increasing speculation that OMX could be acquired... Strength in Software and Semiconductor offset losses in Hardware and Disk Drive while Financial, Health Care and Consumer Staples were influential leaders to the upside... A JP Morgan upgrade on Williams Companies (WMB 18.60 +0.71) helped fuel widespread buying interest in Utility while strong gains in Delta Air Lines (DAL 4.62 +0.32), which announced a flurry of new low sales fares, provided a boost to Transportation...

Even the Materials sector, under pressure most of the day due to profit taking in Steel and a rebound in the dollar, eked out a slim gain...Potentially oversold conditions in the greenback lifted the currency to its best levels in more than a month against the euro (1.3365) and strengthened against the yen (105.05) following news of a 28% year-over-year contraction in Japan's Jan. current account surplus... NYSE Adv/Dec 1754/1587, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1661/1453

3:30PM : Market improves its stance some, lifting modestly above the unchanged mark, as bond yields fall to their lowest levels of the session... Treasurys have inched higher heading into the close, pushing yields on the 10-year note (+8/32) slightly lower to 4.51%... However, since yields still linger above 4.5%, gains in equities have been modest at best...

With regards to tomorrow, investors can expect bonds to perhaps play a more influential role with the release of Feb Retail Sales (consensus +0.6%), Retail Sales ex-auto (consensus +0.8%) and the Mar. NY Empire State Index (consensus 19.9) at 8:30 ET... Also before the bell, investors will have earnings reports from three S&P components (i.e. ABS, KG and LEH) while the Commerce Dept. will release Jan Business Inventories (consensus +0.9%) at 10:00 ET...NYSE Adv/Dec 1587/1709, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1452/1659

[Javaman]

32. 3 years 150days...

That's how long it took for the US military to take down Hitler.
From December 7th, 1941 thru May 5th, 1945.

When was the last time you really heard anything about bin laden?

We are now 2 wars and 3yrs and 312 days into this bullshit and during this time, moron* has stated, "I really don't think about bin laden all that much"

Honestly, if FDR had ever uttered such words about hilter, he would have been run out on a rail.

We are just such happy sheep aren't we?

The moron* is just a complete failure. He is the Chamberlain our our time.