8/22 ELECTION MODEL: OBAMA AT 335EV. BUT THAT'S BEFORE ELECTION FRAUD - TIA

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2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: August 22

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend

Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection

Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends

Chart   Battleground-State Polls

Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability

Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency

Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend

Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend

Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability

Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

 2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 

Uncounted  &  Switched Votes

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote

 

“I’m glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list.”  — Sancho

 

This
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected

8/22/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
ELECTORAL VOTE

Obama
McCain
 45.45 (51.29) 
 43.16 (48.71) 
 45.00 (51.37) 
 42.60 (48.63) 
52.28
47.72
52.44
47.56
335
203

    

15-Poll

End

Sample

Poll

NATIONAL MODEL

 

Pre   Undecided-Voter Allocation 
5-Poll Mov Avg             2-Party          

 

2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
5-Poll Mov Avg

Trend
                            
Rasmussen
Gallup
FOX
CBS/NYT
NBC/WSJ

Bloomberg
Quinnipiac
Zogby
Gallup
Pew

IBD/TIPP
CBS
Time
AP/Ipsos
CNN

Date
            
8/20
8/20
8/20
8/19
8/18

8/18
8/17
8/16
8/10
8/10

8/10
8/05
8/04
8/04
7/29

Size
            
3000LV
2658LV
900RV
869RV
1005RV

1248RV
1547LV
1089LV
903RV
2414RV

925RV
906RV
808RV
1002RV
914RV

MoE
            
1.8%
1.9%
3.3%
3.3%
3.1%

2.8%
2.5%
3.0%
3.3%
2.0%

3.2%
3.3%
3.4%
3.1%
3.2%

Obama
            
48
45
42
45
45

45
47
41
45
46

43
45
46
48
51

McCain
            
46
44
39
42
42

43
42
46
38
43

38
39
41
42
44

Diff
            
2
1
3
3
3

2
5
(5)
7
3

5
6
5
6
7

 

Obama
            
45.0
44.4
44.8
44.6
44.6

44.8
44.4
44.0
45.0
45.6

46.6
47.0
48.0
47.0
46.8

McCain
            
42.6
42.0
41.6
43.0
42.2

42.4
41.4
40.8
39.8
40.6

40.8
43.0
44.2
44.0
43.8

|

Obama
            
51.4
51.4
51.9
50.9
51.4

51.4
51.7
51.9
53.1
52.9

53.3
52.2
52.1
51.6
51.7

Win Prob
               
93.3
92.4
86.7
70.5
81.0

83.5
91.5
89.3
96.7
99.8

97.8
91.0
87.9
85.2
84.2

 

Obama
            
52.44
52.56
52.96
52.04
52.52

52.48
52.92
53.12
54.12
53.88

54.16
53.00
52.68
52.40
52.44

McCain
            
47.56
47.44
47.04
47.96
47.48

47.52
47.08
46.88
45.88
46.12

45.84
47.00
47.32
47.60
47.56

Diff
         
4.9
5.1
5.9
4.1
5.0

5.0
5.8
6.2
8.2
7.8

8.3
6.0
5.4
4.8
4.9

Win Prob
               
99.6
99.6
96.2
88.5
94.5

96.0
98.9
98.0
99.3
100.0

99.4
96.5
93.6
93.6
93.0

 

 

The pundits are saying that the race is tightening. According to Electoral-vote.com, the decline in Obama’s state polls has resulted in a 269–256 EV spread. RealClearPolitics.com shows the national polls tightening. The Zogby poll has McCain leading by 5 points. By just presenting polling data without making adjustments for the large number of undecided and newly registered voters, these and other election forecasting sites confirm the media spin that the race is close.

The Election Model calculates that Obama has a bigger lead than these sites indicate. The Monte Carlo electoral vote simulation has him leading by 335–203. He leads in the aggregate State projection model by 52.3–47.7% and in the National model by 52.4–47.6%. The calculations assume the election is held today.

Here’s why Obama is doing better:

• Of the latest 15 national polls, 10 are Registered Voter (RV) and 5 are LV. The RVs include newly registered young Democrats who are not included in the LV polls. Perhaps that’s why the average of the 10 RV polls has Obama leading by almost 5 points, while the 5 LV polls are nearly tied. In 2004, Kerry consistently did better in RV polls than in LVs.
  
  
• In the Election Model, the base case scenario assumption is that Obama will capture 60% of the undecided vote. He’s considered to be the challenger, since McCain is running for Bush’s third term. Typically, challengers win 75–90% of the undecided vote. In 2004, the final state and national polls showed the race to be tied at 47, but Kerry won the undecided vote by at least 3-1.
  
  
• The aforementioned sites allocate the full state electoral vote to the leader in the latest poll, regardless of how close the race is. For example, if the leader has 51%, he gets all the electoral votes. This oversimplification obscures the electoral vote projection. The Monte Carlo simulation eliminates this possibility by using state win probabilities to determine the total EXPECTED electoral vote.

But there’s another, bigger problem for Obama: Election Fraud. The media pundits want to keep it close by avoiding McCain’s gaffes, flip-flops and plagiarisms. Never mind that he supports the most unpopular president in history. In a true democracy, this would be a slam dunk for Obama.

NOT ONE ELECTION WEBSITE, POLLSTER OR MEDIA PUNDIT EVER MENTIONS THE FRAUD FACTOR.

The Election Model accounts for the distinct probability that the election will be fraudulent and adjusts the vote shares accordingly. This analysis will be provided right up to the election. To show the effects of fraud, the summary table displays Obama’s electoral and popular vote assuming 3% of total votes cast are uncounted (Obama has 75%) and 4% of Obama’s votes are switched to McCain. After adjusting for these factors, Obama has 250 electoral votes and a 49.5% vote share. Of course, for higher switched vote and uncounted vote rates, he would lose by larger margins. Two graphs display the effects of a combination range of uncounted and switch vote scenarios on the EV and popular vote (see the links below).

The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.

According to the Census Bureau, 5.4m (4.9%) of total votes cast in 2000 were uncounted. Approximately 4.0m were Gore votes. In 2004, 3.4m (2.7%) votes were uncounted (2.5m were Kerry votes). The Election Calculator model (see below) indicates that 5.3m (7.9%) Kerry votes (1 in 13) were switched to Bush.

OBAMA NEEDS A MASSIVE VOTER REGISTRATION AND GOTV EFFORT TO OVERCOME THE FRAUD.

In the Three-Card Monte con, the mark is tricked into betting that he can find the money card among three face-down cards. A rigged election is the Vote Scam equivalent of the Three-card Monte. What you see in the exit polls is not what you get in the recorded count; the recorded vote is never equal to the True vote. In this con game, the voter is the mark. Any model which correctly calculates the True vote is doomed to fail in a rigged election.

New features have been added to the State model. Obama’s projected 2-party vote share is compared to the final Kerry projection, unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote shares. His 52.28% projected share is 0.48% higher and within 0.19% of Kerry’s unadjusted exit poll share. The Edison-Mitofsky WPE Input Management Screen (IMS) measure had Kerry at 51.92% (equivalent to a 2-party share of 52.48%).

Zogby and Harris were correct when they projected a Kerry win. But Bush won a rigged Recorded vote, while Kerry won the True vote. As in Three-Card Monte, what you see is not what you get. Election forecasters and media pundits who projected a Bush win avoid mentioning the overwhelming evidence that the election was stolen. On the contrary, a complicit media has been in a permanent election fraud lockdown, while it relentlessly promotes the fictional propaganda that Bush won BOTH elections.

Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes conventional wisdom. Although the media commissioned exit polls which indicated that Kerry won by 5%, they never explained why mathematically impossible weights were used in the Final Exit Poll to force a match to the recorded vote count. Bush won the corrupt Recorded vote but lost the True vote. The final 2004 Election Model projection gave Kerry 337 EV and 51.8% of the two party vote. Bush won the recorded vote by 62–59m with 286 EV.

These graphs display the effects of uncounted and switched votes on Obama's projected EV and 2-party vote share.
?click">Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the projected vote share
?click">Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the electoral vote

THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL

Last
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected

8/22/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
EV

 
 
 
60% UVA
 
 

Obama
McCain
45.45
43.16
45.00
42.60
52.28
47.72
52.44
47.56
335
203

 

2004 Final
 
 
75% UVA
 
 

Kerry
Bush
47.88
46.89
47.80
46.60
51.80
48.20
51.77
48.23
337
201



Projected Recorded Vote   (assuming fraud)

Obama Vote Share      after adjustment for:

Popular Vote
Electoral Vote
49.5%
250
3% -
4% -
Uncounted Votes
Switched Votes

 

True Vote Sensitivity Analysis I — Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA)

UVA Scenario
 
 
Base Case

Obama
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%

 

Projected 2-Party Vote Share

Obama
McCain
50.0
50.0
51.1
48.9
52.28
47.72
53.4
46.6
54.6
45.4

 

MoE
Obama popular vote win probability

2.0 %
2.5 %
3.0 %
50.2
50.2
50.1
86.9
81.5
77.3
98.7
96.3
93.2
99.96
99.63
98.73
100.0
99.98
99.86

 

Obama Expected Electoral Vote

Average
Median
267
267
298
297
335
334
377
377
415
415

Maximum
Minimum
363
187
382
214
418
257
454
301
481
340

 

Obama Electoral Vote Win Probability

Trial Wins
Probability
2224
44.5
4571
91.4
4988
99.76
5000
100
5000
100

 

95% Confidence Level
Upper
Lower
309
226
341
255
383
286
428
327
464
366

 

States Won
Obama
 
21
 
24
 
26
 
35
 
37
 

 

Sensitivity Analysis II — Projected Vote Share & Win Probability

Obama
 
 47.1 
 
 48.1 
 
 49.1 
 
 50.2 
 
 51.2 
 
52.28
 


Electoral Vote
Win Probability
172
0.0
207
0.2
239
7.5
270
50.4
301
92.8
335
99.76


  MoE  
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%


0.2
1.0
2.7


 3.1
 6.8
10.7
Popular Vote
Win Probability
20.1
25.1
28.8


57.4
56.0
55.0


88.7
83.4
79.0


98.73
96.32
93.20

 

 

2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS

National Model — see atop
State Model

 
 
C U R R E N T    P O L L S
 
 
OBAMA vs KERRY
MONTE CARLO EVOTE SIMULATION

 

 
 
Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation
 
Projection
Projection
JK Exit Poll
Recorded
Diff
 
Diff
Obama
Obama
Key States
Within
EV Flip(*)
 
Total

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
       
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
       
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
       
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
       
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
       
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
       
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
       
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
       
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
       
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
       
EV
 538 
       
9
3
10
6
55
       
9
7
3
3
27
       
15
4
4
21
11
       
7
6
8
9
4
       
10
12
17
10
6
       
11
3
5
5
4
       
15
5
31
15
3
       
20
7
7
21
4
       
8
3
11
34
5
       
3
13
11
5
10
3
       
Obama
 45.45 % 
       
36
41
30
37
52

43
51
90
50
45

44
61
37
50
48

48
35
37
38
49

53
49
46
47
42

45
47
32
44
45

50
47
53
43
42

41
37
50
46
55

40
43
36
37
31

63
45
52
37
48
40
 
McCain
 43.16 % 
       
51
48
40
47
37

46
36
9
41
47

53
31
53
37
47

42
58
55
55
36

41
37
41
42
53

47
47
50
43
44

41
41
37
46
45

45
42
43
41
31

53
47
41
47
55

29
45
42
45
40
53
      
 
Diff
 2.3 % 
      
(15)
(7)
(10)
(10)
15

(3)
15
81
9
(2)

(9)
30
(16)
13
1

6
(23)
(18)
(17)
13

12
12
5
5
(11)

(2)
0
(18)
1
1

9
6
16
(3)
(3)

(4)
(5)
7
5
24

(13)
(4)
(5)
(10)
(24)

34
0
10
(8)
8
(13)
 
 
Obama
 52.28 % 
       
43.8
47.6
48.0
46.6
58.6

49.6
58.8
90.6
55.4
49.8

45.8
65.8
43.0
57.8
51.0

54.0
39.2
41.8
42.2
58.0

56.6
57.4
53.8
53.6
45.0

49.8
50.6
42.8
51.8
51.6

55.4
54.2
59.0
49.6
49.8

49.4
49.6
54.2
53.8
63.4

44.2
49.0
49.8
46.6
39.4

67.8
51.0
55.6
47.8
55.2
44.2 
Final  Kerry
 51.80 % 
       
42.0
39.8
48.8
51.0
55.8

50.8
56.5
86.3
57.8
52.3

46.5
52.5
38.3
57.0
41.3

54.5
39.3
42.8
49.0
58.3

56.3
70.8
54.3
55.0
47.3

49.3
41.3
37.3
50.5
51.5

56.0
50.5
60.0
49.0
42.5

52.3
36.3
54.5
53.8
62.0

44.3
46.5
49.2
40.0
29.3

58.3
48.5
55.0
50.0
54.8
33.5
       
IMS  WPE
 52.48 

42.3
40.6
45.0
45.7
60.7

50.6
62.9
91.5
61.9
51.5

42.4
58.7
32.6
57.1
40.8

51.2
37.5
40.3
44.0
56.1

60.2
66.4
55.0
56.3
49.5

49.5
37.6
37.4
53.4
57.8

58.1
53.6
65.1
50.0
35.0

54.6
34.2
51.9
55.7
62.7

46.2
36.3
43.6
42.4
28.4

67.2
50.3
57.4
40.7
52.6
32.9
    
       
Kerry
 48.76 

37.2
35.9
44.8
45.0
54.9

47.5
54.9
90.1
53.9
47.6

41.8
54.6
30.6
55.4
39.7

49.7
37.0
40.1
42.6
54.1

56.5
62.6
51.7
51.6
40.2

46.6
39.0
33.0
48.4
50.7

53.5
49.5
59.0
44.0
35.9

49.2
34.8
51.9
51.4
60.0

41.3
38.8
43.0
38.6
26.3

59.5
45.9
53.4
43.6
50.2
29.4
    
Projection
 0.48 

1.8
7.9
(0.8)
(4.4)
2.9

(1.1)
2.3
4.3
(2.3)
(2.5)

(0.7)
13.3
4.8
0.8
9.8

(0.5)
(0.0)
(1.0)
(6.8)
(0.3)

0.4
(13.4)
(0.4)
(1.4)
(2.3)

0.5
9.4
5.6
1.3
0.1

(0.6)
3.7
(1.0)
0.7
7.3

(2.9)
13.4
(0.3)
0.1
1.4

(0.0)
2.5
0.6
6.6
10.2

9.6
2.5
0.6
(2.2)
0.5
10.7
    
 
Exit Poll
 (0.19) 
 
1.5
7.0
3.0
0.9
(2.1)

(1.0)
(4.1)
(0.9)
(6.5)
(1.7)

3.4
7.1
10.4
0.7
10.2

2.8
1.7
1.5
(1.8)
1.9

(3.6)
(9.0)
(1.2)
(2.7)
(4.5)
0.0
0.3
13.0
5.4
(1.6)
(6.2)

(2.7)
0.6
(6.1)
(0.4)
14.8

(5.2)
15.4
2.3
(1.9)
0.7

(2.0)
12.7
6.2
4.2
11.0

0.6
0.7
(1.8)
7.1
2.6
11.3
Exp EV
 335 





55


7
3
3



4

21
11

7



4

10
12
17
10



3

5
4

15
5
31





7
21
4







3
13
11

10

    
Win Prob
 99.76 

0
12
16
5
100

42
100
100
100
46

2
100
0
100
69

98
0
0
0
100

100
100
97
96
1

46
62
0
81
78

100
98
100
42
46

38
42
98
97
100

0
31
46
5
0

100
69
100
14
99
0
    
EV*Spread
 100% 


0.5%




4.6%



16.0%





7.4%

1.8%







5.8%
3.4%


6.5%
2.3%

3.4%
2.7%


1.3%

7.6%
1.5%

8.5%
2.4%
1.2%
7.1%



1.3%
3.7%




9.9%

0.4%
0.8%

    
MoE
 227 


3




9



27





11

7







17
10


11
3

5
4


5

15
3

20
7
7
21



3
11




13

5
10

    
to Obama
 44 

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO
CT
DC
DE
FL

GA
HI
ID
IL
IN*

IA*
KS
KY
LA
ME

MD
MA
MI
MN
MS

MO
MT*
NE
NV*
NH

NJ
NM*
NY
NC
ND

OH
OK
OR
PA
RI

SC
SD
TN
TX
UT

VT
VA*
WA
WV
WI
WY
    

Note: In the above table, the Obama Exp EV is based on his expected (average) electoral vote from 5000 simulated election trials. The electoral votes shown in the column are for states Obama is projected to win; the total will usually differ from the expected EV. That’s because the Monte Carlo simulation uses state win probabilities in order to calculate the expected (average) electoral vote — the preferred method.

Uncounted and Switched Vote Fraud Scenarios

The Election Model has been updated to include two key fraud variable factors: uncounted votes (net of votes padded) and switched votes. Historical evidence shows that over 75% of uncounted ballots are found in heavily Democratic minority precincts. These critical factors are never included in election forecasting models which permeate the media and the internet. In fact, there is no mention of fraud from professional pollsters, political forecasters in academia, media pundits or liberal bloggers on their web sites. But it’s understandable. No one wants to bite the hand that feeds them. Why should any of these interested parties discuss fraud when Democratic politicians won’t? Unlike impeachment, the dirty little secret of election fraud has always been off the table in Congress. Read more about uncounted votes here.

The Election Calculator Model

This model uses prior election votes cast, mortality and estimated voter turnout to calculate the True Vote.
It was originally developed to determine the 2004 True vote after the fact.
It does not calculate the corresponding Electoral vote.
But we can estimate the Electoral vote and win probability from the popular vote.
National Exit Poll vote shares of returning voters were key inputs.

As of today, the 2008 Election Calculator confirms the Election Model:
Obama has 54.1% and will win the True Vote by 71 – 59m.
Input consists of 2004 total votes cast (recorded plus uncounted), mortality and 2004 voter turnout in 2008.
The vote shares are similar to the 2004 National Exit Poll shares of returning and new voters.

2008 True Vote Election Calculator Forecast
                               Estimated vote share (see National  Exit Poll)
2004       Turnout      Votes         Mix      Obama      McCain      Other
DNV         -           17.2         13.1%      59%         40%         1%
Kerry       95%         60.5         46.2%      89%         10%         1%
Bush        95%         51.6         39.4%      11%         88%         1%
Other       95%         1.6           1.2%      70%         11%         19%
Total       113.7       130.9       100.0%     54.1%       44.7%       1.2%
                                    130.9      70.8        58.5        1.6  

Popular and Electoral Vote Win Probabilities

These are a few reasons why Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is preferable to election forecasting methods used in the media and academia:

• Academic models forecast national vote shares only (months in advance of the election) using regression analysis of economic and political time-series.


• The Election Model projects the popular and electoral vote (and win probabilities) based on the latest state and national polls right up to the election.


• MC does not arbitrarily designate states as being “too close to call”; it automatically factors in the poll-based win probabilities.


• MC is a powerful tool for analyzing risk-based systems (i.e. electoral vote models) when deriving an analytical solution is impractical or impossible.

In each of the 5000 Monte Carlo election trials, the winner of each state is determined using win probabilities calculated from the latest poll-based projection. The winner of the election trial is the candidate who has at least 270 EV. The electoral vote win probability is simply the number of winning election trials divided by 5000.

State and national aggregate popular vote win probabilities are calculated using the Excel normal distribution function. The projected two-party vote share and standard deviation (MoE/1.96) are inputs to the function. A constant 4% MoE is assumed for all state poll win probabilities.

The National Model calculates a 5-poll moving average projection assuming the base case Obama 60% UVA scenario. The National projection would normally be a leading indicator of the State model aggregate since it is based on up-to-date polling. The normal distribution function calculates the national popular vote win probability assuming the MoE of the latest poll.

Read more about Election Forecasting Models and Monte Carlo simulation here.

2004 Election Model Review

On Election Day 2004, Bush had a 48% approval rating.
He won the official vote by 62 – 59m (122.3m recorded).
But according to the 2004 Census, 125.7m votes were cast.
Therefore, approximately 3.4m votes (2.74%) were uncounted.
The majority (70–80%) of uncounted ballots are in Democratic minority precincts.
Including uncounted votes, the adjusted count becomes 62.9–61.5m.

• The Final 2004 Election Model projected that Kerry would win 337 – 201 EV with 51.8%.
  
• Preliminary State and National exit polls also indicated that Kerry won.
  
• Bush was the official winner by 50.7 – 48.3% with 286 EV.
  
  The Final National Exit poll was 'forced' to match the fraudulent Recorded Vote Count.
  
  Final state projections and national exit polls are shown here.

The Election Model produced a startling confirmation of the state and national models.

• In the base case scenario, Kerry was assumed to win 75% of the undecided vote.
  
• The Monte Carlo simulation determined that he would win 337 electoral votes.

Both models projected Kerry the winner with 51.8% of the two-party vote.
The final 5 national poll average projection was 51.8%.
The final 18 national poll average projection was 51.6%.

Kerry’s projected vote share was within 2.0% of his exit poll share in 23 states.

• The 12:22am Preliminary National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won by 51 – 48%.

Exit Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan. 2005.

• E-M discussed polling methodology and provided summary statistics by state, region and voting method.
  
• Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the average difference between unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote count margins.
  It is more appropriate to call it Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD).
  Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit poll by 52.0 – 47.0% (average of three measures).

                Unadjusted Exit Poll             Recorded Vote Count
         EV     Kerry  Bush   Margin KEV     Kerry  Bush   Margin KEV          WPE/WPD
  WtdAv TOTAL   51.95  47.05  4.91   337     48.27  50.73  (2.46) 251           7.37 %

The state exit poll WPD:

• exceeded 6% in 25 states for Bush
• exceeded 4% in 34 states for Bush and just 2 for Kerry.
  
• was less than 2% in 8 heavily Republican states (AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, MT, OK and TN).
  
• was less than 2% in just 1 Democratic state (OR), the only state which votes 100% by paper ballot.

The 1:25pm FINAL National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry lost by 48 – 51%.

• All FINAL National Exit Polls are 'forced' to match the Recorded Vote.
  
• The 'forcing' of the 2004 Exit Poll numbers resulted in IMPOSSIBLE demographics.
  
  
  State and national Pre-election and Exit Polls were wrong, or the Recorded Vote was fraudulent.

2004 Registered Voter (RV) vs. Likely Voter (LV) Polls

• The national pre-election RV polls were closer to the True Vote than likely voter LV polls.
  
• The LV polls, after adjustments, matched the RVs — and the unadjusted exit polls.

The Election Calculator Model determined that Kerry won by 66.9 – 57.7 million.
Simple arithmetic shows that approximately 5.4m votes (8.0%) were switched from Kerry to Bush.
In most states, votes cast exceeded votes recorded — the net uncounted vote.
In Florida, Ohio and other states, votes recorded exceeded votes cast — the net padded vote.

2004 Calculated True Vote
                              12:22am NEP vote share
  
2000  Turnout  Voted    Mix     Kerry   Bush   Other
                                                 
DNV       -     25.6   20.4%     57%     41%     2%
Gore      95%   49.7   39.5%     91%      8%     1%
Bush      95%   46.6   37.1%     10%     90%     0%
Other     95%    3.8    3.0%     64%     17%    19%
  
Total   100.1  125.7    100%    53.2%   45.4%   1.4%
Votes cast             125.7    66.9    57.1    1.7
  
Recorded Vote (actual) 122.3    59.0    62.0    1.2
                                48.3%   50.7%   1.0%
Deviation from True Vote        -4.9%   +5.3%  -0.4%
  
Unadjusted Exit Poll            52.0%   47.0%   1.0%
Deviation from True Vote        -1.2%   +1.6%  -0.4%

 

Other links:
2004 Election Model Summary, Polling Analysis, National & State Model tables
Confirmation of A Kerry Landslide
Election Fraud Analytics and Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

HAVA Look:  A Simple, Verifiable, Open Source, Paper Ballot Vote-Recording & Counting System

Excel Models available for download:
The Election Calculator: 1988-2004
2004 Interactive Simulation Model
A Polling Simulation Model
2000-2004 County Vote Database

[Kurovski]

1. Kick. (nt)