According to the scientific method (which is the most valid form of reasoning), RBR is only a hypothesis (a guess or hunch that needs testing BEFORE it is given ANY value - see below). Even the following report, which is generally supportive of the January 19, 2005 Edison/Mitofsky report, points out the following in regards to the "reluctant Bush responder" hypothesis:
http://elections.ssrc.org/research/ExitPollReport031005.pdf"A Review of Recent Controversies Concerning the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Polls"
(page 8) Furthermore, it is complicated in a way that many post-survey evaluations are by the fact that
some information is essentially unknowable. This is
especially true when one of the concerns is nonresponse, and
there is no information from the nonrespondents to analyze. As a result, there are some sections of the report in which there is an extremely detailed level of disclosure about what the exit poll data show, but in other parts of the report
there are only hypotheses about what might have been the cause for a particular observation. These hypotheses
can guide future experiments in exit polling methodology or even direct changes in the methods, but they cannot explain in a strict causal sense what happened in the 2004 data collection. The "reluctant Bush responder" "theory" is really only a hypothesis, which they are trying to pass off as fact.
"...theories are never <untested> hunches or guesses..." <see below>
In stark contrast, the predictable correlation between exit polls and actual election results is well-established and tested. So this correlation is considered a sound and solid theory, which should've been able to reliably predict the outcome of the 2004 Presidential election.
The real problem here is the pro-Bush faction is trying to "put the cart before the horse". i.e. choose the result they want (Bush really won), and tamper with the tried-and-true process (exit poll prediction) to create that result. This is just a feeble attempt to "create doubt", as they so often try to do.
WE shouldn't take the bait and try to prove the RBR is NOT true. Instead, scientific method says THEY must prove it's true. And, simply put, that can't. GAME OVER, CHECK MATE, etc.
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<some info on theories and hypotheses:>
http://evolution.berkeley.edu/evosite/footshooting/Iterminology.shtmlTheory vs. hypothesis
A theory is an explanation. The validity of a theory rests upon its ability to explain phenomena. Theories may be supported, rejected, or modified, based on new evidence. Gravitational theory, for example, attempts to explain the nature of gravity. Cell theory explains the workings of cells. Evolutionary theory explains the history of life on Earth.
A hypothesis is a testable idea. Scientists do not set out to “prove” hypotheses, but to test them. Often multiple hypotheses are posed to explain phenomena and the goal of research is to eliminate the incorrect ones. Hypotheses come and go by the thousands, but theories often remain to be tested and modified for decades or centuries. In science, theories are never hunches or guesses and to describe evolution as “just a theory” is inappropriate.
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