New Hampshire Poll: Dean down 8, Clark up 4

[Dookus]

In the latest tracking poll from the American Research Group's New Hampshire Poll, Howard Dean has dropped from 45 to 37 since Dec. 17th, Clark's up from 8 to 12 and Kerry's down 2 pts from 20 to 18.

Dec 17: Dec. 31

Dean 45 37
Kerry 20 18
Clark 8 12


http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/


On edit: just to be clear, I listed Dec. 31st as the date this information was posted. The polls themselves were conducted from the 27th to the 29th.

[CoffeePlease2004]

1. Well, that is just great!

Do you know how thinks are shaping in Iowa. I really want Clark to be at least 4th. That looks good when he isn't even really campaigning there.

Mike

[Dookus]

2. well he's not running there....

so I don't even know if people CAN vote for him. :shrug:

Anybody know?

[moz4prez]

6. they CAN caucus for him, I think

or they can caucus for whomever they'd rather Clark go up against. If I were them, I'd root for Dean to weaken Gephardt. But it makes equal sense to root for Gephardt, in the hopes that a victory for Ol' Dickory would hurt Dean.

[Kathleen04]

11. I'd rather..

have them caucus for Clark, because it would show strength if he could get 4th place without having campaigned there. However, if they were going to strategize something, then caucusing for Gephardt might make sense. Even if Gephardt wins Iowa, I'm not seeing him go much further than that. It could be a replay of '88 where he won only Iowa, his home state of Missouri, and South Dakota.

http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Agora/8088/Dem1988.html

[dkf]

7. Running in Iowa is pointless unless you can get 15% of the vote.

That is the minimum needed to capture any delegates.

[Kathleen04]

12. Isn't it possible...

to go in caucusing for one candidate and if they don't garner a significant percentage of the vote then you can move to one of the other candidates?

[Ficus]

22. yes

that is correct

[mouse7]

3. Kerry's not gonna finish 2nd in NH

Oh well. Shows the value of negative campaigning the last few weeks.

[moz4prez]

4. didn't mean to respond here

[Sean Reynolds]

5. Not too big of a drop.

Dean was going to drop sooner or later, it happens as the election gets closer. Mix that with the attacks Dean's been getting, the capture of Saddam and what not, 8 points isn't THAT bad.

The next poll he'll go up a few points, I'll bet my life on it. Ok, not my life - but I'm 100% sure he wont drop.

[Dookus]

8. Heheh...

i'm glad you didn't bet your life ;)

I wouldn't be so sure. I think it's a bit ominous that as the election draws closer and people are paying more attention, that he's going down. Also, hasn't he flooded the state with paid ads lately? I know few will believe me, but I'm NOT saying this to bash Dean... I'm just really trying to look at it impartially, and that strikes me as a rather precipitous drop.

[mike from ri]

18. the more folks look at clark

the more they like him.

cannot say the same re dean.

[stickdog]

20. It's not ominous and it's not people paying more attention.

It's the suicidal nonstop negative Dean attacks Kerry, Lieberman and Gephardt are flinging to the benefit of the "above the fray" Clark.

I wonder how Kerry supporters feel to see JFK reduced to being one of Clark's sacrificial attack pawns.

[LiberalBushFan]

23. a bit too sensitive perhaps?

so he slipped in the polls.
All the democratic candidates must denounce this slip of Dean in the polls if they are true to the Democratic Party!
Dean supporters, you must donate your life savings now to set right this travesty!

[retyred]

24. So your saying negativity works

interesting.


retyred in fla
“Good-Night Paul, Wherever You Are”
So I read this book

[stickdog]

30. Going negative hurt both candidate involved -- especially the attacker.

"Above the fray" candidates can benefit if OTHER candidates go on the warpath against a frontrunner.

[windansea]

36. ahh so you do read my threads

rope a dope anyone??

[izzie]

19. Does not help to have both parties go after you.

How is his money doing?

[dkf]

9. As a Dean supporter I'm ok with this drop.

Especially considering the hammering he's been taking. Frankly, I'm pretty happy with those #s.

[Dookus]

10. As well you should....

I don't think ANYBODY here doesn't concede that Dean will win New Hampshire and will win by a large margin.

The interesting part's gonna be the 2nd place finisher. With Kerry sliding and Clark picking up, it could stir things up. I'd have to think Kerry couldn't continue on much longer if he can't pick up 2nd in NH.

[mike from ri]

16. I do not concede nh to dean

nh voters are famously independent and volitile and will resent the frontrunnerism of the dean campaign.

[helleborient]

13. Wesley Clark has gained 1 point since December 3...

Take a look at the site and the results of the New Hampshire poll over a longer term than 2 weeks.

I understand Clark supporters not wanting to take a longer term view.

When you factor in margin of error, there is no indication Clark has gained anything in the month of December.

Dean still maintains a 75% favorability rating to 51% for Clark.

[Kathleen04]

14. Partly true..

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

We're comparing the Dec. 17th poll to the most recent poll. Clark dipped down 3 points from the Dec. 3rd poll to the Dec. 17th poll. Then, came back up 4 points from the Dec. 17th poll to the one from the 28th.

[Dookus]

31. well...

I think the last two polls are obviously the most important ones, because they show the current trends and directions.

If you want to cherry-pick a timeframe, let's go back to August. In that time, Clark's risen from 1 to 12, while Dean's risen from 28 to 37.

See how silly it is to pick your own timeframe? Obviously, the most recent ones are the most important.

[Justice]

15. I'll Do My Part

I am on the ground in NH this weekend, making calls and knocking on doors. I'll do my part to keep Clark's poll numbers rising!

[Kathleen04]

17. That's great!

:yourock:

I'll be writing a bunch of letters to NH.

Here's to helping Clark's #s go up! :toast:

[Lefta Dissenter]

21. Just to clarify the question about caucusing for Clark

in IA, yes, they absolutely can! I've been making some calls to IA, and have been warmly received.

But these IA and NH people sure can make me crazy - some of them wait until the LAST MINUTE to make their final decision! It's good, I think, because the more you learn about a candidate, the better-informed your decision will be. But I DO wish they'd just decide on Clark and be done with it! :)

[Hep]

25. We all decide for ourselves which statistic is most noteworthy

I think I'll stick with the 19 point lead over the next highest candidate.

[Jerseycoa]

27. Can't say I blame you

I wish we had it. :)

[Hep]

28. Keep up the good work

As a Dean supporter, Clark is the most dangerous one out there IMO.

As a Democrat, I'm not worried in the least. I hope Clark continues to do well. I can definitely vote for him.

[CMT]

26. still a 2-1 lead for Dean over Kerry, and 3-1 over Clark

So I'm pleased. I expect it to get a bit tighter before the election, but it continues to look good for Dean.

[robbedvoter]

29. Native American wisdom:

Dean's campaign might be best described as a funny thing happened on the way to the coronation.

http://www.nativetimes.com/index.asp?action=displayarticle&article_id=3459Howard

[DancingBear]

32. I was on the ground in NH earlier this month

and was talking to several members of the local media, covering a Clark meeting (along with ABC news, but I didn't get to talk to them). I asked them for their "numbers" predictions, and almost all saw Dean at about 32-34% at the final bell. It will be interesting to see how much political acumen they have.

BTW, this was right around the time the WMUR-TV poll had Dean at 45%.

[Capn Sunshine]

33. Clark is within 25% of Dean!

Oh my God! Next thing you know, he'll finish in three weeks only 19% behind Howard Dean! What a resounding victory!

Calling Bagdhad Bob, you're needed in New Hampshire........

[Name removed]

34. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Capn Sunshine]

35. right again on all counts

:evilgrin:
It's so easy to toy with Clark supporters

[demoraticfoxieroxie]

37. So what's so bad about that?

So I went to this little research site and found this...

"Howard Dean's current unfavorable is 16%. This is virtually unchanged from a survey completed on December 18. A total of 36% of the 16% Dean unfavorable comes from Kerry voters and 27% of the 16% Dean unfavorable comes from Lieberman voters. Kerry's and Lieberman's attacks on Dean have only increased Dean's unfavorable among voters already not voting for Dean. The attacks on Dean, however, have had an impact on Dean voters, with 47% of Dean voters saying they have an unfavorable opinion of Lieberman and 30% of Dean voters saying they have an unfavorable opinion of Kerry."

Gee--when you look at that--I'd say things are just fine for Dean.

[MarkTwain]

38. Well, This is "progressive"...

... news for the General - even though he is not even competing in the state !

His will be a Southern strategy for after the presumed, self-appointed, nominee, the "good" Doctor flickers out once the "good" Doctor is truly tested electorally.

Moreover, this is on top of record fund raising for the General in the most recent quarter which - when measured and compared on a monthly basis - puts him far in front of the "good" Doctor in terms of true, base support. (Total Contributions / Total Months In The Race).

Let us hope that this is but the first of many items with the New Year which will allow the General to save this party from one of the worst errors of recent political vintage.


Go General. Go!

[quaker bill]

39. What???

10 million over 3 months for Clark.

15+ million over 3 months for Dean.

"when measured and compared on a monthly basis - puts him far in front of the presumed, self-appointed, nominee, the "good" Doctor in terms of true, base support."

Math problem??

[MarkTwain]

40. Try not to be that fast...

... to challenge. Allow a member to edit for clarity.

Note the edits. The math is more than accurate.

The General has collected more on a monthly basis for the short length of this campaign versue the "good" Doctor who has been in the race far, far longer. Do the arithmetic.

[ryharrin]

41. This poll has been posted before, and

its been discussed that the methodologies are different, and therefore cannot be compared.