Reply #53: Time for caution anyway,

[Iterate]

as I always figure there's time later for optimism if need be. I can't say that I've been deeply surprised so far except by Gaddafi himself. I know that he'll adapt, I know he'll be brutal and vengeful, but I still get shocked by the nature of it. I can never guess on the too-brutal or too-manipulative side of events.

I never bought into the idea that there was a stalemate. Maybe it could appear that way for people who only looked at headlines. When you think about it, in only one month there's been plenty of below-the-radar (so to speak) progress. I don't think it's useful to see it as some sort of classical civil war either. It has more of the characteristics of a war against an occupation army.

You reminded me of an idea to keep in mind, one that you touched on, just the sheer energy it takes to do something, the fuel, refining the fuel, food, lifting, walking, all of it. His troops have been going full tilt for two months. Most of the rebels have not, most are fighting only when they have to and only near home. Government troops need to be everywhere, and sometimes in force. That makes it a good idea to fight at south of Ajdabiya, not a liability as the press would have it. Besides, it's a long walk back to Sirte. Same sort of thinking applies to other places. That kind of effort can't be easily maintained.

In Misurata, he can't take the city. The FF might have overstated their case about controlling all of it, and a local Gaddafi commander might be in deep shit for pulling back somewhat (or just plain getting beaten), but one thing is clear: Gaddafi is no longer in complete control of what happens.

I don't know if that adds up to optimism, or if it's just physics and history.