Prediction: Kloppenburg Will Win - Here's Why

[demwing]

According to the AP site, there are 9 counties with a total of 24 precincts not yet counted:

Sauk(8), Ashland(6), Crawford(2), Dunn(2), Milwaukee(2), Dane(1), Jefferson(1), Juneau(1), Taylor(1)

In those combined counties, Kloppenburg has taken an average of 62% of the votes so far.

Based on the total votes already counted per county, divided by the number of precincts already reporting per county, you can calculate the average votes per precinct in each county. Multiply that number by the precincts remaining, and you get the number of potential votes not yet counted:

Sauk(3559), Ashland(966), Crawford(329), Dunn(444), Milwaukee(940), Dane(737), Jefferson(556), Juneau(174), Taylor(202)

You can then either:
A. Find the sum of all potential uncounted votes (7908) and calulate the outcome based on Kloppenburg's avergae performance in those counties as a whole
B. Calulate each individual county using the same process

It doesn't matter. If trends hold (and that could be a BIG "IF"), Kloppenburg wins in either scenario.

A. (1081 margin)
Kloppenburg:
740,955 votes (50.04%)
Prosser:
739,874 votes (49.96%)

B. (3886 margin)
Kloppenburg:
740,608 votes (50.01%)
Prosser:
740,221 votes (49.99%)

The question is whether the trends will hold, and whether the counts have been done accurately. With such a slim edge, there will be a recount - that's got to be a given.

The way it looks right now, there is the potential that Kloppenburg will fall somewhere between scenario A and B, which will get a lot of Dems excited to see if her margin of votes equals that of Bush's "win" in Florida in 2000.

OH HELL BABY,

all this MATH, and now I see Kloppenburg is 600 votes ahead!!

WOOT!


http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/WI_Supreme_Court_0405.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS