Reply #62: The lesson of 2010 should still be obvious to us

[NeedleCast]

In months when the economy goes down, so do Obama's popularity numbers. In months when the economy improves (or is portrayed as improving), his popularity goes up. What do you think 2012 is going to hinge on? The biggest threat to a 2nd term for Obama is the economy. If we double dip people will vote for anyone except the incumbant. Look at the examples that 2010 gave us. Do you think in a normal economy that Sharon Angle and Rand Paul would be legitimate threats (one even a winner)? Not a chance! But in election years when the country is precieved to be in bad shape and heading in the wrong direction, the mob will vote out incumbants as it did in 2006 and 2010, regardless of where fault may actually lie.

I don't think in a normal or even down-but-improving economy Palin has a chance. but in bad one, she is legit threat no matter how much dumb stuff comes out of her mouth.