Fuzzy Math Doesn’t Add Up in Wisconsin Race

[demwing]

GAB is sending staff to Waukesha County to review vote totals for the Wisconsin Supreme Court Race after Clerk Kathy Nickolaus’ announced yesterday that she left the city of Brookfield off of the totals she initially reported...She “found” 14,000 votes yesterday, which led to a net 7,500 votes in favor of Prosser, who now leads at 7,319. This total gets Prosser just over the 5%, under which the state will pay for a recount. However, there’s a problem with these found votes; Nickolaus’ math doesn’t add up.

According to the 2010 census, there are 38,649 living in Brookfield. Of these Male 48.4% Female 51.6%, Median Age 42...Most of the media has been focusing on the 38,649 number, which — given a 33% turnout over all — would yield about the 14,000 votes reported...But the "voting age and over" population for Brookfield is 73.2%. This yields a possible voting base of 28,291.

So, let’s assume all of the 28,291 were registered. The figures don’t add up: Statewide turnout —and in the rest of Waukesha county — was 33%. Even assuming that all 28,291 over the age of 18 were registered voters, that 33% turnout — which was reported as very high — would have yielded no more than 9,430 votes.

http://www.politicususa.com/en/wisconsin-math

If the trend trend in Waukesha held in Brookfield (75% Prosser / 25% Koppenburg) then that 9430 votes would have been distrubuted as follows: 7,073 for Prosser, 2357 for Kloppenburg, with a 4716 difference. Thats well within the fee recount area.