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Breakdown of 2010 vote- Obama's dilemma with white voters [View All]

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Telalim Donating Member (28 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-05-10 09:18 PM
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Breakdown of 2010 vote- Obama's dilemma with white voters
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Edited on Fri Nov-05-10 09:19 PM by Telalim
Looking at the results of the midterms, it looks like Democrats were only able to attract 37% of whites. Blacks voted 9 to 1 and Hispanics 2 to 1 in favor of democrats.

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1790/2010-midterm-elections-exit-poll-hispanic-vote

There is no way that Obama can win in 2012 without attracting more support from whites. The dilemma is how? If he veers too far left, he will lose even more white support, but this at the expense of his base. That is disaster.

My opinion is that he needs to strike a populist tone, clearly and unequivocally against corporate bailouts. This includes FNM and FRE. Moreover, he has to stay clear of any bailouts of state governments, whether for schools and the general fund.

I predict that he will have a perversely seminal moment to strike such a pose when it comes to California. California owes the federal government about $8 billion with respect to its unemployment benefits fund. Additionally, Californians passed prop 26 which limited the ability to raise taxes AND fees unless by a supermajority. In short, California is on the fast track to insolvency.

Since California's electorate is demographically favorable to Democrats, such a stance will do little to injure him there. The groups frankly have shown no inclination to vote anything but Democrat, so their vote is assured. As Obama stated, voters are tribal when under "siege". In short, he can let California upheave, stand resolute as it does so and in the end, he'll still capture California's electoral vote. In the eyes of white mid-westerners and southerners, his stance is a clear winner.

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