Reply #129: So many things wrong with this post: 1. Meek < Obama, 2. A three way race vs two way race, 3. Not

[wmbrew0206]

understanding the demographics of Florida.

1. Meek is not Obama. Not even close. He is a relatively unknown Congressmen from South Florida vs a very well known Senator.

2. Democrats have an alternative to vote for in this race, where they did not in the '08 Presidential race. If Clinton had run as an independent in '08, Obama would not have gotten 51%

3. The voter turn out in '08 was HUGE in Florida, especially among minorities. That is not going to happen this year. Not even close. Part of that 49% that voted for McCain in '08, were racist democrats in central and north Florida that will not vote for a black man. They especially won't vote for a black man from South Florida. (There is a BIG amount of distaste for South Florida by the north and central Florida men.) Since the turnout is going to be smaller, this portion of the voter population will be greater.


Please show me any model that has Meek winning without gaining a majority of democrats in north and central Florida.