Reply #4: Don't forget those OHIO punch cards and the Kerry-Bush vote-switching

[L. Coyote]

This goes a long way towards explaining the "red shift" in Ohio.

"In a subset of 166,953 votes, one of every 34 Ohio voters, the Kerry-Bush margin
shifts 6.15% when the population is sorted by outcomes of wrong-precinct voting."

The 2004 Ohio Presidential Election: Cuyahoga County Analysis
How Kerry Votes Were Switched to Bush Votes
http://jqjacobs.net/politics/ohio.html

In 2004, the Ohio Presidential voting results do not accurately reflect voter intentions. In Cuyahoga County, the election was flawed and the design appears to have been manipulated. At locations with several ballot orders in use, many votes were cast by voters crossing precincts, hence counted other than as intended. At precincts with the highest Kerry support, the percentage of uncounted votes is inexplicably high. The obvious inference—intentional manipulation produced concentrated undercounting, cross-voting, and vote-switching in areas of highest Kerry support—cannot be ignored in the face of the evidence and statistics. The possibilty that ballots were switched to different precincts, post-voting to effect vote-switching, must also be considered.

Many individual ballots resulted in a vote-switch, a two-vote margin difference from the intended result. Switched-votes cast for Kerry and counted for Bush had twice the impact as their actual occurence, by each subtracting one from Kerry and adding one to Bush. Bush and Kerry votes also went uncounted as non-votes or were miscounted as minor candidate votes. A high percentage of all Cuyahoga County votes were cast at locations with multiple ballot orders. The manner in which precincts and ballot orders were combined increased the probability of a Kerry cross-vote being recorded as a Bush vote. Quantitative analyses of candidate votes and of non-vote percentages evidence the cross-voting and the patterns of cross-voting and vote-switching.


http://jqjacobs.net/politics/powerpoints.html
Highlights of the article are available in a PowerPoint.

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New Mexico Election Data with a Statistical Summary and a Non-Voter Analysis.
http://jqjacobs.net/politics/xls/new_mexico_county.xls


In New Mexico, why does the Sequoia and Danther E-voting equipment
fail to count so many votes? On average, 2.62% of voters did not vote
per these machines, compared to 0.46% non-votes in the Op-Scan counties.

* United Voters of New Mexico - Statistical Analysis of Voting Results - http://www.uvotenm.org/info-da.html
* Some Observations of New Mexico Election Data with links to spreadsheets - http://lnvb.westside.com/NewMexico/observations.view