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I don't know why Kennedy ran exactly that year as opposed to another, but I will try to recall the general atmosphere, as explanation. First, some of your premises are wrong: "the odds were overwhelmingly against him," I remember clearly a strong attitude of people waiting for Kennedy to run, and a feeling that the Presidency would have been won easily any time Kennedy wanted it; "President Carter had much of the traditional Democratic establishment on his side," as a matter of fact, the Party was badly split at that time, and many people wanted the economically conservative Carter out. Carter also arrogantly made members of Congress come to the White House at the early meetings, rather than the traditional President-going-to-Congress, and that offended many people, because it was so odd.
Carter was a trickle-down, corporate-tax-cutting, deregulating, anti-union President, a real disappointment to those who wanted Democrats back in the White House after Watergate. I remember many comments about lowering taxes, "free markets," not turning to Government for help--even as the unemployment rate jumped, inflation got worse, and there were returns of long gas lines. Carter was not a populist by any "New Deal" type sense, and was as anti-worker as Clinton later was. One quote from Carter, ("The Politics of Rich and Poor," Kevin Phillips, p. 48-49), was "Government cannot solve our problems. It can't set our goals. It cannot define our vision. Government cannot eliminate poverty, or provide a bountiful economy, or reduce inflation or save our cities." Carter cut capital gains taxes, deregulated, began the shift of Social Security funding from income taxes (the rich), to increased payroll taxes (middle class and poor). Carter did not support union protections, strikes, safety regulations, and Kennedy was a champion of unions and workers, against management. Carter was a "new type of Democrat," before the Clinton lobbyist "D"LC gave that phrase such a manacing meaning.
Carter pretended to be a "peanut farmer," if you will recall, like a small-time family farm, but actually ran a huge factory-farm agribusiness, and was always on the side of corporate interests; a real corporate conservative who did nothing active with Government to help the worsening economy. Arthur Schlesinger accused Carter then of "an eccentric effort to carry the Democratic Party back to Grover Cleveland," the horrific corporate conservative of the Gilded Age.
Ted Kennedy was and is the great liberal, union champion, middle class supporter over corporate/management interests, the fighter for universal medical care--and Carter was killing everything, not using Government to help people, and losing union support. Kennedy, who would famously also hate the Clinton-corporate crowd controlling the Party, possibly could tell what was coming. Carter arranged for some arcane Party rules to be changed, making it harder for a challenger to get the nomination, but I can't remember now which change it was. This was publicly known then and a few years ago when PBS did a documentary on Carter. Carter was a conservative and many people couldn't stand it anymore, and Ted Kennedy would have been a great President; and has been since, one of the greatest Senators.
Why did Ted Kennedy run for President, 1980? Because many people, among them me and my family, wanted Kennedy for President.
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