Reply #43: Need has never had anything to do with consumption.

[Statistical]

The idea that because people can bike 20 miles to and from work each day they suddenly will is laughable.

Should we encourage people to? Sure. Should we base out entire transportation model on a pipe dream that they will? Not really.

The reality is that the vast majority of Americans 10 years from now will commute to work in a motor vehicle. If even a substantial minority of them (say 10%) were EV or electricity made up the majority of their duty cycle we could see the largest reduction in oil imports ever.


Average vehicle (25 mpg) @ 12,000 miles = 480 gallons of gasoline per year per vehicle.
50 mpg vehicle = 240 gal of gas, 240 gal savings (50% reduction).

Volt w/ 50% gas / 50% electric duty cycle = 120 gal of gas, 360 gal savings (75% reduction).
Volt w/ 25% gas / 75% electric duty cycle = 60 gal of gas, 420 gal savings (88% reduction).
Volt w/ 10% gas / 90% electric duty cycle = 24 gal of gas, 456 gal savings (95% reduction).

Unless someone figures out a way to get 100, 200, 300 mpg from a conventional engine (which is beyond theoretical max for internal combustion engines) there is nothing else that will achieve a 75% - 95% reduction in oil consumption.