Reply #16: Thanks for the tipoff, John

[Gman]

you stupid bastard.

While Bolton's arguments about why Iran's options are "less broad" come from a perspective that Iran would react rationally, he completely discounts the primary, Political Science/Force in International Politics 101 notion that perceived irrationality makes a nation's leader powerful.

He also ignores the fact that 1) Iran has enough money that they don't have to export oil for many years and they will do just fine, 2) Israel's sorry performance in Lebanon doesn't make Iran afraid of anything from Israel. However, #3 is the one thing none of us are sure about, the US response. We all know these bastards are unquestionably insane enough to hit Iran with nuclear weapons (talk about perceived irrationality...) Fortunately, deterrence from Russia who is a strong trade partner with Iran and from China who needs Iranian oil likely takes the nuclear option off the table for the US.

One thing is crystal clear now. The plan that will be set in motion sometime between now and the end of the year is for Israel to hit Iran. Then the US waits for Iran to retaliate and then the US jumps in and hits Iran with everything up to and including possible nuclear weapons if deterrence doesn't work because they truly are irrational and insane.

I think the most rational and smartest way for Iran to react to an Israeli attack is to go straight to the UN and build a consensus against the US and Israel up to and including sanctions against both.

Another random thought on Russia and China deterrence against the US... if it doesn't work and if either of these do strike the US with a limited nuclear strike, it would be fantastic for Bushco business. The neocons really want a strike on the US. They've said as much while lamenting that 9/11 was a one-time event. It would completely destroy the world economy, but then again, they have all the money already and would make even more. So you just really can't say what they will or will not do.

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Something about hitting "submit" that makes you review your post completely differently than when you first proof-read it.