Reply #52: There are significant differences

[Oak2004]

In 1974, Dick Nixon was gone, but the party he represented was in very good health indeed. Nixon had orchestrated a political realignment, stripping the South from the New Deal coalition. Structurally, the party was thriving (I know, I was a Republican at the time). The Republicans had a healthy, disciplined structure at the grassroots, whereas the Democrats were weak. And the party itself was not stained by Nixon's misdeeds: in fact, Republicans played a key role in pushing him out.

There were no extraordinary threats to the United States: the hated war was winding down, tensions were easing between the superpowers, though the US was wrestling with inflation, for the most part people could find reasonably priced housing and well-paying jobs.

2008 is a very different beast. It's the Democrats who appear to be orchestrating a realignment. The Democratic grassroots are thriving, while Republican party registrations are falling and rank and file Republicans talk of deserting the party. The GOP itself is rightfully tarred with having supported Bush every step of the way. The military is all but broken and there is no end in sight for the wars. The nation, and the world, seem to stand at the brink of an economic and environmental collapse.

This is less like 1974 than it is like 1933. It remains to be seen whether Obama -- and the grassroots-- can rise to the occasion.