US Military Strike on Iran Set for the Week of April 6, 2008?

[PerfectSage]

Was checking out global events magazine and saw the alert for a possible Iran attack this week. :tinfoilhat:

Link to Global Events Magazine

While developments such as any US military strike on Iran are difficult to predict with certainty, an array of factors the Editor considers to be potentially important have recently emerged such that the he felt a responsibility to issue this alert in good faith, intended to heighten awareness of the significantly increased possibility, even likelihood, that the US will soon act on Iran. The factors that obliged the Editor to issue this alert are listed below. The reader should be aware of these, evaluate their importance for his/her self, and watch unfolding developments closely as the week of April 6, 2008 approaches.

Top Bush administration officials have recently, and repeatedly, spun last year's Intelligence Assessment on Iran, which leaned toward the view that Iran had stopped its drive to acquire nuclear weapons, as signifying that Iran does indeed have a nuclear weapons program, that it has in all likelihood restarted that program, and that it will likely have a weapon by 2010 if not stopped now.

Diplomacy, as nearly everyone can see, is mostly ineffective in stopping Iran in its nuclear aims and activities. Despite enormous diplomatic pressure, and its acquiring Russian fuel for its reactor at Bushehr, Iran continues its drive to enrich its own uranium, for but one example.

Top Bush administration officials have recently resumed beating the war drums loudly with respect to Iran, regarding its nuclear activities, the ongoing and accelerating spread of its destabilizing tentacles across the Persian Gulf region, its activities in Iraq in instigating violence, calling Iran the most serious threat to stability and world peace.

Dick Cheney has recently completed a ten-day tour of the Persian Gulf region, including also Turkey, where he met with leaders to discuss Iran, which was at the top of his agenda in every stop he made. His visit included every state that hosts large US military bases in the region, bases that would be key in any US military action against Iran.

In Saudi Arabia, Mr. Cheney won the Saudi king's support for actions to ease oil prices - something the Saudis had steadfastly refused to do until now. Any US strike on Iran will produce an oil price shock. However, such a shock can be cushioned by increased supply by Saudi Arabia, it is hoped. Mr. Cheney won the cooperation of the Saudis with respect to an increase in the global supply cushion.

Key European powers, most notably Germany and France, have recently come down firmly in support of Israel's security in the face of the mounting Iranian threat, which threat has been stated by German and French leaders to be grave and totally unacceptable. Though the German leader (Ms. Merkel) stopped short of endorsing military action against Iran, she vowed total support for Israel's security. One must realize that public statements that fail to explicitly support military action do not oblige Germany to withhold clandestine, real support for the military option. The French President is firmly on board with the US in a possible military option against Iran.

The sudden resignation of US CENTCOM commander Adm. Fallon, a vocal critic of the militarist policies of the Bush administration, strongly suggests that the US is now poised to exercise the military option. Exactly one year ago, when the US had placed four aircraft carrier battle groups in and around the Persian Gulf, Adm. Fallon vowed he would resign before he would carry out the command to order US forces into action against Iran. In effect, he thereby vetoed the US strike that was imminent last April. In the year that has followed until now, the US pursued diplomatic options in a futile effort to stem Iran's rise. Adm. Fallon's sudden departure raises truly ominous signs that the US administration, along with key NATO allies, has decided it must resort to the military option. Adm. Fallon, as promised, resigned before he would have any part in such a foolhardy venture. Whether he was forced out or resigned willingly is of little consequence here. He leaves his post on March 31, 2008. After that date the way is clear for a US strike.

Mr. Bush has only about 10 months left in office. If he is to deal with the swarming Iranian threat, he must do so now. He cannot risk leaving the problem to a democrat successor and thereby go down in history as a totally failed leader. In his mind, that is not an option. The window of opportunity for him to save/establish his legacy is rapidly closing.

Starting on Sunday April 6, 2008 the Israelis will conduct the largest-ever nationwide, week-long defensive war drill simulating ballistic missile strikes on Israel from Iran and Syria. The dimensions of this upcoming drill are unprecedented. This drill may well be a cover, allowing Israel to prepare for an imminent US strike on Iran and Syria, but without depriving the US of its element of surprise.

The US has recently positioned an array of Aegis destroyers, which excel in ballistic missile defense, close to its Persian Gulf allies and Israel, ready to intercept Iranian and Syrian missiles. The recent installation of such a buffer against retaliatory Iran-Syria missile strikes portends that something is in the offing with regard to US military actions against both Iran and Syria.

The US has the ability, absent any significant number of aircraft carrier battle groups in the vicinity, to quickly turn Iran's nuclear and military sites and assets into a junkyard virtually overnight. From its bases in the vicinity (Iraq, Oman, Turkey, Israel), from its base in Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, and from European and US bases, as well as from its submarine fleet, the US can employ B1, B2 and B-52 bombers, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and shorter range attack aircraft to mount a massive air strike on Iran and Syria without any warning whatsoever.

However, the US cannot hope to suppress all of Iran's and Syria's ballistic missile and asymmetrical retaliatory capabilities. Hence, some missiles and other forms of retaliation will likely reach their targets - US bases in Iraq, Oman, Qatar, etc; oil installations along the Gulf; Israeli cities and installations; shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The US is playing with catastrophe in opting for a military "solution" on Iran.

It must be noted here that the US, if it does strike Iran and Syria, will almost assuredly use nuclear-tipped bunker busters to ensure the destruction of key targets buried deep underground, including nuclear assets, command and control, and the hiding places of the members of the Iranian and Syrian regimes. The US will enjoy plausible deniability as respects any use of nuclear weapons, since it can proclaim that any radiation that is released came from Iran's nuclear reactor (already fueled by Russia) and from secret underground nuclear sites in the target

Additional factors pointing to early April as the most likely time for a US strike:

The Pentagon has procured a large inventory of sophisticated bunker-buster bombs and their delivery systems. When the contracts for these systems were initiated last year, a clause required their complete delivery by the start of April, 2008.

Mr. Bush initiated a program to fill completely America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve with the stipulation that it must be completed by the start of April, 2008. It is now completely filled.



Against a dangerous enemy in possession of significant and deadly air defenses, the US always launches air strikes under the dark cover of an astronomical new moon so as to give its pilots every advantage and protection. Iran is such an enemy. Iraq in 1991 was also such an enemy, and US air strikes began at 3:00am local time on January 17, 1991 - the day of the astronomical new (darkened) moon. While the US did begin its air strikes against Iraq in 2003 on the night of a full moon (March 18, 2003), that was due to the fact that it had received credible intel as to Saddam Hussein's location, and it attempted to take him out, thus starting operations earlier than planned. Additionally, Iraq of 2003 possessed only a small fraction of the air defense capabilities it had in 1991, and thus posed little real threat to US air forces. The next astronomical new moon is April 6, an optimal date for utilizing cover of darkness for air operations. The next astronomical new moon after that is May 5.

It is reported by Scott Ritter, former chief US arms inspector, as well as by other sources, that now-former CENTCOM commander Adm. Fallon recently got into a dispute with the Bush administration over orders to deploy a third aircraft carrier battle group to the vicinity of the Persian Gulf, to be on station in early April. Adm. Fallon took the position that a third group was unnecessary unless a strike on Iran was in the offing, and refused to carry out the order. His partly forced/partly voluntary "resignation" followed immediately. The third carrier group is being deployed to within striking distance of Iran.

Link to Global Events Magazine