Another COIN Myth Exposed - Protecting the Population

[bigtree]

August 11, 2010

One of the more pernicious myths of the modern COIN fad is the focus on protecting civilians as an end goal in itself for COIN operations. As the argument goes, by protecting civilians counter-insurgents are able to shift the balance of popular support toward the government and away from the insurgent forces. The more people feel protected, the better chance they will reject the insurgent force and ally themselves with the government. The population is the center of gravity we are told.

For example, last spring here is how General McChrystal defined the fight in Afghanistan: (http://www.democracyarsenal.org/2009/06/mcchrystals-wrongheaded-focus.html)

“Central to counterinsurgency is protecting the people,” he said. . . Effectiveness is measured in “the number of Afghans shielded from violence.”

The New York Times endorsed this view, making the argument: (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/08/opinion/08mon1.html?_r=1&ref=opinion)

Protecting Afghan civilians, and expanding the secure space in which they can safely go about their lives and livelihoods must now become the central purpose of American military operations in Afghanistan.

According to a new UN report, more than a year later, things are not working out too well: (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/11/world/asia/11afghan.html?_r=1&hp)

In its midyear report, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan said the number of civilians wounded and killed had increased by nearly a third in the first six months of the year, as coalition forces raised the level of military action against insurgents. In that period, 1,271 civilians were killed and 1,997 wounded, the report said, with more than three-quarters attributable to what it called “antigovernment elements.”

So what we have here is compelling evidence that our COIN strategy has been an dramatic failure; the US has largely been unable to protect Afghan civilians. In fact, their lives are now at greater risk than before we began to carry out a policy specifically geared toward protecting them . . .

read more: http://www.democracyarsenal.org/2010/08/another-coin-myth-exposed-protecting-the-population.html