Reply #17: Attack is easy. 'Winning' is a whole other matter

[Strelnikov_]

All data 2005.

- The Persian Gulf represents nearly 50% of the worlds petroleum export market.

- The vast majority of this resource passes through 6 to 8 major facilities (one facility in KSA alone processes 60% of its petroleum).

- If Iran is attacked in such a way as to threaten the continuity of the regime, they will use their substantial missile inventory in taking out these facilities (I do not believe they will target Israel, as it would have no strategic purpose, whereas targeting the gulf energy infrastructure would strike a mortal blow against the attacking western economies, in particular the US, as I discuss below).

- The US imports ~ 12.4 Mbbl/dy (60% of total consumption) of petroleum which represents around 29% of the worlds petroleum export market.

- The next largest petroleum importers (Japan 5.2, China 3.1, Germany 2.4, South Korea 2.2, France 1.9) all have substantial dollar reserves and are significant exporters of finished goods. Basically, we will be outbid on much of what remains of the worlds petroleum export market post attack, as these countries use their export capacity in finished goods to purchase petroleum from Russia, Nigeria, Norway, and Venezuela.

- In the weeks following destruction of the Persian Gulf oil export market, the US will probably see 2/3rds of its imports sold to higher bidders, leaving us with about 60% of the petroleum supply we had pre-attack.

- Approx. 42% of US petroleum is used for personal transport, 22% for commercial transport (trucks that carry food to the stores, etc.). I will leave it to the reader as to the impact a nearly overnight loss of 40% of the US petroleum supply will have to the economy (not to mention the impact due to the collapse of the petrodollar system).

- Russia, India and China will take a pass. Russia stands to make a fortune. And if all the gulf petroleum goes off line, they become the worlds sole energy superpower. China and India will dig in (as they consume much less petroleum), weather the storm, and emerge in a position to snap up all those production contracts that will no longer go to US multinationals for rebuilding the gulf.

- In conclusion, Iran is not toothless. We can physically destroy the country of Iran. There is a good chance they can destroy our economy and begin the process of petrocollapse, ultimately leading to the destruction of a greatly weakened US in a few decades.

So, who wins?

He who can destroy a thing, controls a thing - Muah'dib

My life fades, the vision dims, all that remains are memories. I remember a time of chaos. Ruined dreams, this wasted land. But most of all, I remember the Road Warrior. The man we called Max.

To understand who he was you have to go back to another time. When the world was powered by the black fuel, and the deserts sprouted great cities of pipe and steel.

Gone now, swept away. For reasons long forgotten, two mighty warrior tribes went to war, and touched off a blaze which engulfed them all. Without fuel they were nothing. They had built a house of straw. The thundering machines sputtered, and stopped. Their leaders talked, and talked, and talked. But nothing could stem the avalanche. Their world crumbled. The cities exploded. A whirlwind of looting, a firestorm of fear.

Men began to feed on men. On the roads it was a white line nightmare. Only those mobile enough to scavenge, brutal enough to pillage, would survive. The gangs took over the highways, ready to wage war for a tank of juice.

And in this maelstrom of decay, ordinary men were battered and smashed, men like Max, the warrior Max. In the roar of an engine he lost everything. He became a shell of a man, a burnt-out desolate man. A man haunted by the demons in his past. A man who wandered out into the wasteland. And it was here, in this blighted place, that he learned to live again.

Opening Dialog, “The Road Warrior”, 1981

A movie that seems more prescient every day.


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http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oiltrade.html

All in Mbbl/dy

Top World Oil Net Exporters, 2005

Saudi Arabia 9.1
Russia 6.7
Norway 2.7
Iran 2.6
United Arab Emirates 2.4
Nigeria 2.3
Kuwait 2.3
Venezuela 2.2
Algeria 1.8
Mexico 1.7
Libya 1.5
Iraq 1.3
Angola 1.2
Kazakhstan 1.1
Qatar 1.0

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Above represents 39.9 Mbbl/dy of 42 Mbbl/dy world export market
18.7 Mbbl/dy of above in Persian Gulf region


Top World Oil Net Importers, 2005

United States 12.4
Japan 5.2
China 3.1
Germany 2.4
South Korea 2.2
France 1.9
India 1.7
Italy 1.6
Spain 1.6
Taiwan 1.0


Top World Oil Consumers, 2005 (Domestic production in parans.)

United States 20.7 (8.3 - 40%)
China 6.9 (3.8 - 55%)
Japan 5.4 (0.2 - 4%)
Russia 2.8
Germany 2.6
India 2.6
Canada 2.3
Brazil 2.2
Korea, South 2.2
Mexico 2.1
France 2.0
Saudi Arabia 2.0