Reply #11: I hope you're right

[Prophet 451]

I'm not arguing that there aren't good reasons to loathe the man, there are lots of them but I think they're being both fed on and exagerated by the media-industrial complex (to re-coin a phrase) because of an attempt (probably unwitting for the most part) to make the public more sympathetic to bombing the hell out of Iran.

As for the oil, one doesn't need to grab the oil to profit from it. Basic economics dictates that if the supply of a limited commodity is restricted and that commodity is in demand, the price will rise. The chaos in Iraq has removed Iraq's 4 million barrels or so from the global oil market and we've all seen what that's done to the price - the oil companies have doubled (and in some cases, more) their profits. Divvying up and selling off Iran's oil is potentially worth billions but keeping that oil off the market is potentially worth even more because it would push the price of oil even higher. Incidently, there are some (myself included) who think the invasion of Iraq was deliberately botched for that exact reason.

In terms of deomestic politics, it actually makes perfect sense to attack Iran if you can frame it right. No, the public won't support an unprovoked attack on a soverign nation to grab their natural resources but enough of them might be convinced to support our brave troops liberating the Iranian's from under the fist of a brutal tyrant and his Islamofascist cohorts. Think the public wouldn't fall for it? You might be right and I hope you are but I have two rules in life. Number two is "always bet on stupidity" and it's never yet let me down. On the domestic front, an attack would also allow for the kind of rally-around-the-flag nationalism the Repubs have used constantly in the last few years, tar the opposition with lack of patriotism, etc. All of that is assuming that the admin wouldn't find some excuse to declare a national emergency and actively sieze dictatorial powers (or those few which haven't yet been handed to them anyway).

In terms of international politics, it would be a disaster but the Bush admin's attitude toward the international community has for a long time been not just neglect but outright contempt. Militarily, no, there aren't enough troops to occupy Iran. However, there are more than enough stockpiled bombs (and, dear Satan, I hope not, nukes) to reduce the entire region to softball sized rubble. The nation can be crippled, even decimated, without ever having to put a boot on the ground.