Reply #41: OK

[Febble]

if you are not arguing from precedent, then I'm with you, I suppose. Except that I don't see that 2004 was particularly exceptional - sure it was larger than usual, but 2006 seems to have been about the same as 1992. And the discrepancies in 1988 and 1996 were also substantial. Michael Butterworth investigated correlates of the 1996 discrepancy and got very similar findings to those I found in the 2004 data. Ironically, in 2000, the exit polls were unusually close to the count. And they weren't bad in NM in 2004, which is a state I think it is highly likely that Kerry won. So there is precedent for polls being biased, and precedent for the Wrong Result even where the exit polls are fairly close to the official result.